Earnings Labs

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 19, 2016

$102.86

+0.43%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Pinnacle West Capital Corporation 2015 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Paul Mountain, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Paul Mountain

Analyst

Thank you, Christine. I would like to thank everyone for participating in this conference call and webcast to review our fourth quarter and full year 2015 earnings, recent developments and operating performance. Our speakers today will be our Chairman and CEO, Don Brandt; and our CFO, Jim Hatfield. Jeff Guldner, APS’s Senior Vice President of Public Policy and Mark Schiavoni, APS’s Chief Operating Officer are also here with us. First, I need to cover a few details with you. The slides that we will be using are available on our Investor Relations website, along with our earnings release and related information. Note that the slides contain reconciliations of certain non-GAAP financial information. Today’s comments and our slides contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations and the company assumes no obligation to update these statements. Because actual results may differ materially from expectations, we caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements. Our 2015 Form 10-K was filed this morning. Please refer to that document for forward-looking statements, cautionary language as well as the risk factors and MD&A sections, which identify risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our disclosures. A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website for the next 30 days. It will also be available by telephone through February 26. I will now turn the call over to Don.

Don Brandt

Analyst

Thanks, Paul and thank you all for joining us today. Pinnacle West delivered a solid 2015 with earnings near the high end of our guidance range, with Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station having a record year and with the balance sheet that remains one of the strongest in the industry. Jim will discuss the financial results and outlook. My comments will focus mostly on the year ahead. Our fleet performed very well in 2015, highlighted by Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station’s highest output ever equating to a capacity factor of 94.3%. One of Palo Verde’s key strengths is the ability of the team to perform at an excellent level, but to also drive continuous improvement each year. 2016 marks the beginning of a new period for our fleet. In total, we are planning to invest over $3.6 billion in capital over the next 3 years. We are investing in two large projects in our fossil fleet as well as a few innovative investments, and some IT systems to prepare our operations for the long-term. The two large fossil projects are the Ocotillo modernization project and the selective catalytic reduction pollution controls, or SCRs, as they are called, at the Four Corners Generating Plant. Four Corners Unit 5 entered a major outage in January to make several upgrades and begin laying the groundwork for the SCR installations. The innovative investments I will outline are designed to increase customer and system reliability and meet future resource needs. In November, we announced a partnership with the Department of the Navy to develop a 25 megawatt microgrid project at Marine Corps Air Station Yuma. This is APS’s first micro-grid project in the first military base to secure 100% backup power. We also plan to install a 40-megawatt solar facility this year on behalf of…

Jim Hatfield

Analyst

Thank you, Don and thank you, everyone for joining us on the call. This morning, we reported our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2015. As you can see, on Slide 3 of the materials, we had a solid year and ended on a strong note. Before I review the details of our 2015 results, let me touch on a few highlights from the quarter. For the fourth quarter of 2015, we earned $0.37 per share, compared to $0.05 per share in the fourth quarter of 2014. Slide 4 outlines the variances, which drove the increase in our quarterly earnings per share. Looking at gross margin, higher retail sales, favorable weather and the adjustment mechanism were all positive contributors. Also as we anticipated, lower operations and maintenance expenses in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to 2014 improved earnings largely due to lower planned fossil outages. Now turning to Slide 5, let’s review some of the details of our full year results. We delivered positive results in the top line of our guidance range, earning $3.92 per share compared to $3.58 per share in 2014 and earned a consolidated ROE of 9.77%, which was in line with our goal of achieving more than 9.5%. Gross margin was a positive driver for the year, including favorable year-over-year weather. The adjustment mechanisms were also earnings accretive in 2015 including the lost fixed cost recovery mechanism, transmission and our Arizona Sun program. The Four Corners rate change that went into effect on January 1, 2015, was the largest driver in gross margin. However, keep in mind that the Four Corners rate change was largely offset in D&A. Higher usage by APS customers in 2015 versus 2014 contributed to earnings. Weather normalized retail kilowatt hour sales after the effects of energy…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Hi, good morning guys.

Don Brandt

Analyst

Good morning Dan.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Just on the revenue per customer decoupling mechanism you talked about in your opening remarks, you said there were going to be some adjuster mechanisms as you go ahead, try and rebalance to keep you guys on hold, can you just explain to me how that’s going to work and kind of how you propose for that to work going forward?

Don Brandt

Analyst

Jeff is sitting right here. Dan, I will let him try on that one.

Jeff Guldner

Analyst

Sure, Dan, so there was an extensive discussion in Arizona a few years ago around decoupling mechanisms in general. In our last rate case, we had proposed that LFCR mechanism as a – essentially from the settlement process. But the way our revenue per customer mechanism would work is it takes into account all of the different adjustments, so whether sales as well as just other changes to essentially changes to the normal revenue requirement process, but what it does is it looks that it to accommodate customer growth, right. So as customers grow and we are making additional investments into the system, we need to be able to pickup the additional costs that come from that growth. Did that make sense?

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Yes, that makes sense. Okay. Don, you also said, you guys were going to change the kind of peak period from a demand charge perspective toward a pricing perspective, what hours are you looking to move that to…?

Don Brandt

Analyst

Have we arrived at those yet, Jim.

Jim Hatfield

Analyst

Still working through obviously the stakeholder process, but pushing it more towards the first later in the day, because that’s where you see the need to essentially focus on the peak?

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Okay. So kind of the evening, early evening hours I guess…?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst

Yes. Early evening, we have got current rates, primary time use rate is 12 to 7 peak period. And so, we’d both shorten that up and then move it out later in the day. And that’s partly responding to the dot curve what you see in the wholesale market up here from the over generation that happens in the middle of the day.

Don Brandt

Analyst

As our summer peak this last year was at 5 o'clock to 6 o'clock maybe afternoon, early evening and that’s been typically the time of hitting our peak.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Okay, got it. And I guess, you know, how do you guys see this working, I guess, with all the parties involved? Obviously, the Nevada process has gotten challenged and maybe a little bit sloppy in retrospect. Do you see common ground where this works to get to a fair conclusion all the way around or this is probably going to be another contentious process?

Don Brandt

Analyst

Well, I think there will be some additional element in this that is typical, but the last few cases have been very well organized and executed by all 22, 23 parties, and that’s certainly I think the direction we, the staff will go and the vast majority of the parties would intend to proceed.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Should we be watching the UniSource case as indicative of what you guys will try and accomplish as well?

Don Brandt

Analyst

UniSource is going to be an important discussion. That’s the first case in the state that’s really focused on the changes to residential rate design. That’s why we have got four witnesses in that case. So obviously, that’s probably a case to watch.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Got it. Thank you, guys.

Don Brandt

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, everyone.

Don Brandt

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, Shar.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

So, just on the shifting of the demand rates later in the day, is there any potential impact if we get a successful launch with the EIM, can that sort of that peak demand period smooth out a little bit?

Jeff Guldner

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

No, Shar, this is Jeff. EIM helps balance really intra-hour. It’s not affecting the underlying wholesale market. So, what you see in that shift and it’s not the shift of demand rates, but that shift of the time-of-use period, the peak period out to later in the day is reflecting that ramp that comes later in the day from the duck curve.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Got it, okay. That’s helpful. And then just thinking about sort of have you – is there – are we anywhere in the process as far as looking at gas storage opportunities right now around APS?

Don Brandt

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

No, nothing in the process.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. Okay. And then lastly, the toll does sort of expire I think next year. Any updates there as far as looking at new build or acquiring in-state generation or another toll?

Jeff Guldner

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Well, we will be going out next month, I believe, with all resource RFP for – with the beginning date later. This decade is really designed with not only the heat rate options, which are not flexible than have been or will expire. And then we have a toll in ‘16 and a toll in ‘19. So this process and we will get being all resource, I expect to see various resources in there and we will evaluate -- and evaluate where we are and what we need and we will move from there.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, got it. But new build is still an option?

Jeff Guldner

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. I think we have great optionality here. I mean, we can extend the tolls shorter term, long-term. We could new build if it was the right thing to do. But right now, we will just see what comes into the RFP.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Excellent. Thanks, Jeff and Don.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, guys. In regard to the shifting of the time-of-use rates to later in the day, how much value do you really see shifting or being shifted as a result of that change?

Jeff Guldner

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

This is Jeff. So, what you are trying to do, we have a fuel adjuster, right, which is going to pick up essentially the cost of the fuel burn, but what you are trying to do and shift that out later is to align the customer response with when we see the need for essentially conservation on the system. And so what it’s...

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

I guess, what I am asking is how much value is being lost right now by having the time of these rates peaking too early in the day?

Jeff Guldner

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

It’s a customer issue. So, if you have the time of use rates fixed, you don’t have essentially, for example, on the solar side, you are not providing credit at noon at a peak rate when the wholesale market is negative.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Oh, I see. So, this is – yes, I guess what I am trying to find out is how much money is the utility losing by providing peak pricing at times of the non-peak usage?

Jeff Guldner

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, Michael, there is no money loss for APS. It’s really a shifting and sending the right pricing signals to – what was done whey they were put in before to what we are seeing in today’s marketplace. It’s an alignment issue.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Do you have any sense of how much of the shift, how much in dollar terms that shift is?

Don Brandt

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

It’s a rate design issue. So, it’s kind of – it’s part of the rate design process. We are trying to align the retail rates with the wholesale market.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Also, yes I was just going to shift to another question, but we can talk more about that offline.

Don Brandt

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

The issue is, its rate design, so it’s revenue neutral, so…

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

I understand it’s revenue neutral. I am just trying to get at what’s the impact on solar, on the third-party solar in the state and how – what’s the impact on them in terms of cost shifting and what kind of rate shift will they see as a result and how it’s going to impact adoption rates? On a separate topic, Doug Little was recently in New York City and he was talking about reducing regulatory lag as a high priority. And this goes along the lines of you applying for a decoupling mechanism. I am just wondering are there other forms of rate lag, structural rate lag that you could seek to eliminate under the new commission make up?

Don Brandt

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

We have made a fair number of changes really over the last probably 2 or 3 rate cases that have picked that up. A lot of it comes in the time to process the case and trying to get that processing time down to a year or so and things we have done with that are for example pre-filing the discovery. So we don’t wait, file the case, wait for 3, 4 months and then begin the discovery process. And so a lot of that’s been worked out, obviously adjuster mechanisms and how you can work on adjustment mechanisms can help smooth out even further. And so that’s probably going to be some of the discussion you will see and that’s part of what we have been talking about with stakeholders.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Right. Are there any important differences between your rate design and the UNS case, the UNS rate design that we should be looking for as we watch that case?

Don Brandt

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

I think the general issue that’s coming up in UNS is how it’s going to apply broadly across the customer base. And so the commission staff that proposed that the three-part rate design be applied to all residential customers and that’s one of the key issues to look at, I think.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ali Agha with SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Good morning.

Don Brandt

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, Ali.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Jim, first, wanted to clarify your comment, when you said with bonus depreciation extension equity needs have been taken out of the equation. Does that mean through this 2018 period or when at the earliest do you now see any need for equity?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

I don’t see any equity needs, Ali, through the planning horizon.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

That runs through 2018?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, but through the end of this decade, frankly.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

End of this decade, okay. And then secondly given that fact, if I look at your updated rate base numbers, if I take ‘15 as the starting point, the ‘15 through ‘18 CAGR is about 6%. So, should we assume EPS should pretty much follow that since there is no equity dilution to factor in or should we think about the EPS CAGR there?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

I think as we have said in the past, EPS CAGR is somewhere between rate base growth and dividend growth as we think about those as your two boundaries.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

And dividend growth, you have talked about, 4% annually, if I recall correctly?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

5% was the last dividend increase.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, okay. And then a question to you, Don, wanted to get your view, we have seen a pickup in consolidation in the utility space, we have seen very large premiums being paid out there. Just wondering, what’s your perspective is and do you see a role for Pinnacle West in that consolidation process we are seeing out there?

Don Brandt

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Well, you are right, there is a lot going on out there, but we don’t really comment on M&A. I will say we are focused on our excellent operations and continuing that. And we believe, growing earnings and providing – will provide shareholder value without combining operations with another entity.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Would you agree with the assessment that valuations that are being paid appear excessive or do you think those are reasonable out there?

Don Brandt

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

I think each one of them is unique to the specific transaction.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Fair enough. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Charles Fishman with Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Charles Fishman

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Jim, I just want to confirm, ROE for 2015, you said 9.77 and I am assuming that’s weather normalized?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

No. That’s based on the 3.92. And that’s at the Pinnacle level.

Charles Fishman

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. So it’s a book.

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Yes.

Charles Fishman

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. And do you have it for – well, I am looking at my model and I have 9.6 last year, what – am I comparing apples-to-apples?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

I think that’s pretty close, yes.

Charles Fishman

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. That’s all I have. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Levi with Avon Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Andy Levi

Analyst · Avon Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Actually all my questions have been answered, but it’s nice to hear a call where there are no – make your number and your forecast is good and that there is no like pension plugs or anything like that, so that’s it, all of my question have been answered. Thank you.

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · Avon Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you, Andy.

Don Brandt

Analyst · Avon Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks Andy. We like it that way too.

Operator

Operator

We have no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing or additional comments.

Paul Mountain

Analyst

Thank you, Christine. And thanks, everybody for joining us today. We will talk to you soon. That concludes our call.