Earnings Labs

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 1, 2011

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Transcript

Rebecca Hickman

Management

Thank you, Christine. I’d like to thank everyone for participating in this conference call and webcast to review our third quarter earnings, recent developments and operating performance. Our speakers today will be our Chairman and CEO, Don Brandt; and our CFO, Jim Hatfield. Don Robinson, who is President and Chief Operating Officer of APS, is also here with us. Before I turn the call over to our speakers, I need to cover a few details with you. First, the slides we refer to today are available on our Investor Relations website, along with our earnings release, supplemental information on our earnings variances and operating statistics, the webcast and the Form 8-K filed this morning. Please note that the slides contain reconciliations of certain non-GAAP financial information. Also, all of our references to per share amount will be after income taxes and based on diluted shares outstanding. It is my responsibility to advise you that this call and our slides contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations, and the company assumes no obligation to update these statements. Because actual results may differ materially from expectations, we caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements. Our third quarter 2011 Form 10-Q was filed this morning. Please refer to that document for forward-looking statement, cautionary language as well as the MD&A section, which identifies risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements. A replay of this call will be available on our website for the next 30 days. It will also be available by telephone through November 8. At this point, I’ll turn the call over to Jim.

James Hatfield

Management

Thank you, Becky. The topics I’ll discuss today are outlined on slide four. First, I’ll review the consolidated third quarter results and discuss the main variances from last year’s corresponding quarter. Second, I will provide a brief update on the status and outlook for the Arizona economy. Third, I will discuss our 2011 earnings guidance. And lastly, I will close with brief comments on our liquidity and financing activities. Slide five summarizes our reported and ongoing earnings for the quarter. On a GAAP basis, for this year’s third quarter, we reported consolidated net income attributable to common shareholders of $255 million, or $2.32 per share, compared with net income of $234 million, or $2.14 per share for the prior year’s third quarter. Our ongoing earnings increased $0.18 per share. For the 2011 third quarter, we had consolidated ongoing earnings of $246 million, or $2.24 a share, versus ongoing earnings of $224 million, or $2.06 per share for the comparable quarter a year ago. Slide six contains a reconciliation of our third quarter GAAP earnings per share to our ongoing earnings. The amount for both quarters exclude results related to our discontinued operations. The discontinued operations amounts relate primarily to APS Energy Services and real estate activities. My remaining comments on the quarter will focus on ongoing results. Moving to slide seven, you see the variances that drove the change in quarterly ongoing earnings per share. First, an increase in our regulated electricity segment gross margin added $0.10 per share, compared with the prior year’s third quarter. Several pluses and minuses comprise this positive net variance and I will cover those items in more detail on the next slide. Second, lower operations and maintenance expenses improved earnings by $0.10 per share. The decrease largely reflects lower benefit costs, as well as…

Donald Brandt

Management

Thanks, Jim, and thank you all for joining us today. I know it’s a busy day for you and we all look forward to seeing most of you next week at EEI. Since our last earnings call, we’ve made distinct progress in key areas and continued our track record of operational excellence. Today, I’ll update you on the four following topics; one, APS’s pending general retail rate case and other Arizona regulatory developments; two, our investments in renewable resources and other generation; three, our recent operating performance; and four, the sale of our unregulated energy services subsidiary. We know Arizona regulation and APS’s recently filed retail rate case are top of mind for most of you. As I’ve discussed on our last call, APS filed a general retail rate case on June 1 of this year. Through the rate application, APS requested a $95 million net base rate increase effective July 1 of 2012. Details of the request as well as key underlying assumptions are outlined in the appendix to today’s slides. The rate case proposals contain a number of benefits for our customers, the communities we serve and our shareholders. The requested regulatory treatment would build upon the constructive regulatory framework established in the 2009 settlement and would provide the financial support APS needs to achieve Arizona’s ambitious energy goals. Since the case was filed, we have continued to communicate with the Arizona Corporation Commission staff and interveners regarding the details of the case and its intent. Upcoming key dates in this proceeding are as follows. First, the ACC staff and interveners will file their direct testimony on all matters, except rate design, on November 18, and their remaining direct testimony on December 2. Second, the parties plan to enter into formal settlement discussions on November 30 with the…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Our first question is from Greg Gordon with ISI Group. Please proceed with your question. Greg Gordon – ISI Group: Thanks. Good morning, guys. I have two questions. First, when you look at your regulatory filing, including the decoupling/rate design aspects that you requested, has there been any sort of heretofore public commentary from different intervener groups that you could talk about that point to the points of the most contention, as we approach the settlement talk date?

James Hatfield

Management

No, Greg. I – like we said, we’ve had stakeholder meetings on a monthly basis and dialogue is generally being good. I think it’s been a good lively give and take, but I don’t think anything pops to the surface that would indicate a ranking, so to speak, of where peoples’ heads are now. Greg Gordon – ISI Group: Okay. My second question is kind of away from this. You own obviously the largest operating nuclear facility in the country. And, Don, I know that you’re also on the board of Nuclear Energy Insurance Limited. Can you comment on what you’re seeing in terms of the issues at Crystal River 3, what looks like a near-miss of an issue at Davis-Besse, and how that informs – how you’re thinking about the maintenance of your nuclear plant, and whether you’re embarking on any construction projects there that we need to be wary of?

Donald Brandt

Management

Well, no, I can’t comment on Crystal River or Davis-Besse, Greg. But we don’t have any kind of projects anywhere close to anything like that. We’re doing some construction of like an outage administration building, but literally that’s an office, small office building within the protected area. Greg Gordon – ISI Group: Okay. So there’s no plans for steam generator or vessel head replacements?

Donald Brandt

Management

No, we’ve just completed over the last 10 years, 12 years, 13 years, all the steam generators changed out through the early part of the last decade. And just completed a year or so ago the last reactor head. And unique, we have a hatch that was built in the containment during construction. So there was no cutting concrete. It was just unbolting and opening the hatch. It’s a big project, but there was no cutting into the concrete. Greg Gordon – ISI Group: Thanks, Don.

Donald Brandt

Management

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Cole with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question. Kevin Cole – Credit Suisse: Hi. Good morning, guys.

Donald Brandt

Management

Hi, Kevin. Kevin Cole – Credit Suisse: I just have, I guess, a question on energy efficiency. So I recognize that energy efficiency is typically viewed as the cheapest form of power, but those capital costs are often borne by the customers as they upgrade equipment, make their home improvements and so on. But if we’re in a sustained, low economy, does it seem – it seem like these resources are less available today than they were a couple years ago when these were – when these policies were struck, especially now with like a bigger bifurcation between economic classes. And so, Don, do you see – do you know if the Commission is showing any interest at all in reducing the efficiency targets to lessen the burden on your customers, particularly as those at lower end of the economic spectrum are being affected by base rates resets?

Donald Brandt

Management

Well, Kevin, we haven’t seen anything out of the Commission in that regard to this point. And I’ll add, particularly during the first few years of pursuing energy efficiency, we’re really in the point in time of a lot of low-hanging fruit. And most of the programs we have in place have, besides our subsidies, some pretty quick payback periods for customers. And really it’s been a very favorable response from our customers and the results demonstrate that the programs and processes work. Kevin Cole – Credit Suisse: Okay. And what sort of programs do you have in place right now in order to achieve – I guess the nearest hurdle right is 9.5% by 2015?

Donald Brandt

Management

Yeah, a variety. Well, time-of-use rates, weatherization programs, pool pump programs, air-conditioning rebates for higher SEERs. I could go on. We’ve got – you can find most of them on our website, pretty extensive. We think probably one of the most extensive programs in the industry. Kevin Cole – Credit Suisse: Okay. Thank you. And I guess on a separate question. Jim, did you say that you’re assuming 1% customer growth from 2011 to ‘14 because I thought you filed for 1.7% in the rate case?

James Hatfield

Management

On average 1% customer growth, yes. Kevin Cole – Credit Suisse: Do you know – I guess what sort of – under a full decoupling mechanism, what sort of – have you provided any sort of EPS sensitivity to changes in realized customer growth rates?

James Hatfield

Management

No. Kevin Cole – Credit Suisse: Okay. All right. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ali Agha with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please proceed with your question. Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Thank you. Good morning.

James Hatfield

Management

Good morning. Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Hey, Jim, could you remind us, assuming you do end up at the higher end of the range, as you expect to for the year, what would that correspond to in terms of ROE for the utility?

James Hatfield

Management

It’d be just north of 8.5%. Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Okay. And then going back to the commentary that you made earlier in terms of the discussions that you’re having with all the parties throughout this process on the rate case, should one extrapolate that to assume that – we should assume that a settlement is the most likely outcome on this process given what you’ve been hearing from all the parties you’ve been in discussion with?

James Hatfield

Management

I wouldn’t extrapolate the technical conference into a settlement in the case. Proposing the mechanisms that we did, decoupling the infrastructure tracker, these were really avenues to more fully explain and get points of view and clear up questions going into this filing from the interveners. Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Okay. And then lastly, can you remind us what was the final outcome of the study of the report that was done on the outage that had happened a few months back, has that issue been pretty much resolved or just remind us where we stand on that?

Donald Robinson

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Yeah, this is Don Robinson. The September 8th outage is still being reviewed by FERC and NERC and WAC and the California ISO and we wouldn’t expect any results out for many months. Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Sometimes beyond your rate case outcome et cetera?

Donald Robinson

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Well I can’t tell you when the rate case is going to be done, but I think this will be a few months down the road. Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question. Brian Russo – Ladenburg Thalmann: Yes hello. Just the property tax trends that you’re seeing, it seem that they’ve come in a little bit under what you were expecting a quarter ago. Is this kind of an ongoing review or is the base that’s reflected in your O&M expense guidance should that be the base that we can now work off of going forward?

James Hatfield

Management

Well, I would answer it this way Brian, as we knew in ‘10 we’d have higher rates than ‘09, because valuations were falling. We knew that ‘11 would be higher than ‘10. We try to extrapolate that into booking the number in the second quarter and they came in slightly lighter than we thought. And with the stability in home pricing we’ve been seeing in the last year, we could see an increase in property taxes, but we think the big run-up is behind us over the last couple of years. Brian Russo – Ladenburg Thalmann: Okay. And the $475 million of capital investment for the Phase II of AZ Sun, should we assume you build or buy 50% of that and the rest of PPAs?

James Hatfield

Management

No. The $475 million and the 100 megawatts would be our rate basing similar to what we did in AZ 1. Brian Russo – Ladenburg Thalmann: Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

James Hatfield

Management

Yep.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question. Shar Pourreza – Citigroup: Good afternoon. Can you comment on your pre-established equity needs in 2012, where we assume a constructive outcome in the rate case?

James Hatfield

Management

Well, like we said before, our need for equity will be driven by whether or not we have a settlement because that’ll dictate whether or not ‘12 is a test year. And if ‘12 is not a test year, I don’t believe we would issue equity in 2012. I think we’ll be issuing in 2013 at the earliest in that regard. Size-wise we haven’t really talked about size. I would just point out that Don alluded the sale of APS Energy Services and we continue to sell non-regulated and that would continue to reduce the need for equity at the Pinnacle level. Shar Pourreza – Citigroup: Any potential upside to your credit ratings, assuming a constructive outcome?

James Hatfield

Management

Well, that’s obviously up to the agencies, but S&P kept us on positive outlook. And I think there is potential implication there, but we’ve had no dialogue with the agencies directly related to the subject. Shar Pourreza – Citigroup: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: Hey, guys.

James Hatfield

Management

Hey, Neil. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: So, as we think about that $44 million transmission rate increase that you received earlier this year, how much of it did you take in Q3 and what was the adjustment factor that offset part of that in the quarter?

James Hatfield

Management

The increase in Q3 was $8 billion before the adjustment factor. And the adjustment factor is just an adjustment to a formula that affected prior years. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: Got it. So that was limited to Q3, the adjustment, but on a go-forward basis it won’t be a factor?

James Hatfield

Management

It won’t be much of a factor, that’s correct. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: All right. And then on AZ Sun 2, as you think about those 100 megawatts from 2013 to 2015, in your filing did you talk about the distribution of those megawatts when you expect them to come online?

James Hatfield

Management

Well, Neil, we did but I would point out that just like we did it ratably in the last one, we’ll be opportunistic and you have to do RFPs and you have to find projects that work, that have land, and the permitting is always an issue as we’ve seen. So it will be based on really what the market and availability of projects give us over that timeframe. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: Got it. And then on Four Corners, can you just refresh us in terms of how you’re thinking about timing. We’ve still got some regulatory approvals that are contingent. Are you still targeting late 2012?

James Hatfield

Management

Yes.

Donald Brandt

Management

Yes. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: And, got it. And I guess those are my questions. Thank you very much guys.

James Hatfield

Management

Thanks, Neil.

Donald Brandt

Management

Thanks, Neil.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our next question is from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please proceed with your question. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Good morning.

James Hatfield

Management

Hey, Paul. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Wanted to just touch base with you on this staff recommendation on the solar incentives and the fact that solar prices have fallen. Any comments on that, any thoughts about how that could affect the proposals you have with the Commission, the fall in solar prices?

Donald Robinson

Analyst · Glenrock Associates

As we looked at the filing, the staff pretty much agreed to a request that we had made and actually cut down the incentive piece a little on the residential to recognize the fact that you don’t need as much there. But other than that we don’t see much else happening. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Okay. And then with respect to the property tax question that I think Brian was asking about.

James Hatfield

Management

Right. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: I guess the $0.02; is that – I wasn’t completely clear on that, is that sort of an annual impact that we’re going to be seeing in terms of delta as to what you had seen previously or...?

James Hatfield

Management

Yeah, no, that’s an annual impact. We now have our assessments in, our bills in for the year, so now we do know our bill. Third quarter we were trying to extrapolate some things we saw from various counties. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Okay. And then you guys very effectively went over your schedule, and I missed part of it; the November 30 and December 23 dates, what were those signifying? I apologize for being a little off the wall?

James Hatfield

Management

Well, the November 30 date is the date, according to the procedural schedule, that we formally start settlement discussions. That’s since been clarified and said we can start earlier if all the parties choose to. And we have until December 23 when we’ll either file a settlement agreement in the case or we’ll file rebuttal testimony. So we’ll be on dual track in that timeframe. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Okay. Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

James Hatfield

Management

Thank you, Paul.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of James Krapfel with Morningstar. Please proceed with your question. James Krapfel – Morningstar: Hi, good morning.

James Hatfield

Management

Good morning. James Krapfel – Morningstar: I noticed that your weather normalized retail usage for businesses has slowed down quite a bit in the last few quarters. In the first quarter this year you had 1.7% growth, second quarter 0.3% growth, and then last quarter down 1.9%. What were the drivers for that and do you think that will continue for the next six to 12 months?

James Hatfield

Management

Well, as I looked at the customer usage before the call, I saw no particular industry group or driver for commercial sales. So I think it’s broad-based and reflective of just the state of the economy in Arizona. As I mentioned earlier in the call, we’ve seen some economic statistics that have been fairly favorable, noting that we came from pretty far back, and so I don’t expect any real worsening of those sales trends as we move forward. James Krapfel – Morningstar: Okay. So yeah with your weather normalized guidance of flat for 2011 through 2013, you’re basically assuming that that will normalize and stabilize going forward?

James Hatfield

Management

Yeah. James Krapfel – Morningstar: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ted Hayden with PointState Capital. Please proceed with your question. Ted Hayden – PointState Capital: Good afternoon.

James Hatfield

Management

Hey, Ted. Ted Hayden – PointState Capital: I had a quick question on pension. One, just your thoughts in general about pension headwinds next year given the move in the markets and the move in discount rates? And then secondly, I’m remembering I think in 2008, you guys were – had some unique plan where you actually booked a gain where the market was obviously down significantly on your assets. And I wanted to just know if that the program is still in place and how we should think about the performance of your assets this year?

James Hatfield

Management

Well, there’s no question we’ll have headwinds on pension in 2012 with not only the discount rate, but certainly we look at the screen today and know what asset returns are doing. Now keep in mind we do get to defer a bigger piece of pension in OPEB in 2012 so that it’ll partially offset that. And then what you referred to in 2008 as we had done – we had executed an LDI strategy on the pension plan. And at the end of the year when you had very low treasuries, very high spreads, we ended with a positive return in the pension plan. In fact I think we had the top-performing pension plan in America that year. That plan was removed at the beginning of ‘09 to take the gain, which – so that plan is only partially in place today and will continue to benefit us, but no question we have headwinds. Ted Hayden – PointState Capital: Okay. So your returns will look probably more in line with the market than they did in 2008 because you had made a good call back then?

James Hatfield

Management

That’s correct. Ted Hayden – PointState Capital: Okay, great. Thanks a lot guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is a follow up question from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: Thank you. Southwest Gas recently received a decoupling mechanism. I think there’s another gas utility segment that’s in for a decoupling mechanism. Do you view that as a relevant read over to the commission’s appetite for decoupling for electric?

James Hatfield

Management

No. I think this commission has clearly demonstrated the difference between electric and gas companies in the rate setting process and have further delineated growth utilities from non-growth utilities on the electric side as well. I think the track record clearly points at that. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: Got it. And on O&M expense growth, what have you guys guided to for next year?

James Hatfield

Management

We haven’t. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: Okay. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Ms. Hickman, we have no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

Rebecca Hickman

Management

Thank you, Christine and thank you all again for joining us today. As always, if you have further details that you need about our earnings or information about our company, please contact me or Geoff Wendt. This concludes our call.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.