James R. Hatfield - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thank you, Bill. For our third quarter, we reported consolidated net income of $152 million or $1.50 per share as compared with $209 million or $2.07 per share in 2007 third quarter. Net income was down $57 million or $0.57 per share, with APS comprising a substantial majority or $0.45 of the total variances. Lower results of SunCor made up the remaining $0.12 of the difference. Earnings for the third quarter of 2007 included tax benefits related to prior years of $10 million or $0.10 per share that did not repeat in this year's third quarter. Now, I'd like to provide some detail on the consolidated variances. On a positive note, APS retail sales growth added $0.06 per share. In the third quarter of 2008, APS customer growth increased 1.2% as compared to 3.2% a year ago. As expected, the decline in Arizona's economic conditions mirrors to a large extent what is happening in the national economy. But despite the recessionary climate, our customer base continues to grow albeit at a much slower pace than in the past. We currently expect customer growth to decline to about 1% by the end of the year. Of course, it's difficult to determine the extent or severity of this economic downturn. But we currently do not anticipate a meaningful turnaround prior to 2010. Going forward, we remained confident of the long-term fundamentals of Arizona's economy and we expect to see customer growth return to the more vibrant levels as a national and state economic environments improve. Transmission rate increases under the transmission cost adjustor approved by the ACC, improved our quarterly earnings $0.07 per share. Their earnings improvements were more than offset by several factors. First, weather reduced earnings $0.14 per share. This year's third quarter was relatively normal as compared to hotter than normal weather in 2007. To illustrate, cooling degree days were 6% less than 2008 as compared to the 2007. Additionally, non-cash mark-to-market valuation of APS's fuel and purchase power hedges, net of related PSA deferrals reduced earnings $0.17 per share. As a result, precipitous decline in natural gas prices in the third quarter from the steady increases we had seen in the first half of this year. The mark-to-market gains previously recorded this year through June 30 were completely reversed in the third quarter. Higher O&M cost decreased earnings $0.20 per share related cheaply to higher customer service and maintenance cost for our distribution system at power plants. About $0.03 per share of the increase is related to renewable energy programs. In addition, we recorded severance cost of $0.04 per share, primarily related to head count reductions associated with turning back certain construction related activities as a result of lower customer growth. As Don mentioned on last quarter's call, the ACC approved APS's 2008 implementation plans for the state's renewable energy standard or RES, which provides up to $34 million for APS's renewable energy projects and customer incentives. These expenditures are recorded mostly in O&M expense, but are offset by revenues collected through a renewable energy surcharge. In 2008, through September 30th, the RES related O&M was $18 million pre-tax. The decrease in SunCor's results was inline with our expectations in light of the current distressed national real estate and credit markets. SunCor recorded a loss of $0.06 per share in 2008 third quarter compared with earnings of $0.06 in 2007. SunCor's third quarter of 2007 results included to sell the large commercial property. On last quarter's call, we discussed the review of our capital expenditures that was underway. Our goal was to reduce our CapEx for the next three years by more than $500 million, on top of the $200 million reduction announced since January. We have completed the review and are in process of implementing the reductions. We are further reducing our capital expenditures by some $720 million for the three year period 2009 through 2011. Approximately 80% of these reductions relate to continuing slowing of customer growth, while about 20% relate to delays of projects. As a result of these capital expenditure reductions, we expect the related line extension payments collected from new customers to decrease over the period by approximately $200 million. Net of these line extension effects, the additional capital reduction sold $520 million. The projected capital expenditures have been reflected in our third quarter 10-Q, which was filed this morning. Now I'll provide an update on liquidity and pensions. As you know, the credit and liquidity markets experienced significant stress beginning in the week of September 15th. Pinnacle West and APS have been able to access existing credit facility, ensuring adequate liquidity. Cash on hand is being invested in money market funds, comprising primarily at U.S. Treasury Securities. Pinnacle West has a $300 million revolving credit facility that terminates in December 2010. APS has two revolving credit facilities totaling $900 million that terminate December 2010 and September 2011. Additionally, we have no maturities of long-term debt until 2011. Our $1.2 billion of revolvers included combined credit commitments, totaling $51 million from Lehman Brothers that are no longer available to that of bankruptcy filling. Therefore, our capacity into the combined revolvers was approximately $1.15 billion at September 30. On that date, Pinnacle West had approximately $167 million of short-term debt and APS had approximately $200 million of short-term debt outstanding. And Pinnacle West and APS had approximately $95 million of cash and investments at the end of the quarter. As a result Pinnacle West and APS collectively had over $800 million in available credit capacity and cash at September 30th. Conversely, SunCor's ability to consummate transactions in 2009 may be impacted by the lack of counterparty liquidity as they continues. As a result of significant declines in a capital markets recently, several analysts has estimated the effects on corporate pension plans and the result and expense of primary requirements. In light of investor concerns, I'll provide some information related to our plan. At the end of 2007, our plan was 82% funded compared with our projected benefit obligation or PBO. During 2008, we made a $35 million contributions. Adjusted for this contribution, our plan was 94% funded on a cash funded basis at planned year 2007, which is 2% over the minimum cash funded status required by Federal Law. Actuarial evaluations of a period early each year which includes the prior year end results. If the funded status were to fall below the required threshold, we could elect the seven year amortization period to meet the funding requirements. Not surprisingly, our pension fund asset values have declined during 2008 as have most planned funds. In addition to fund asset vale changes, the discount rate used for the actuarial valuations is updated each year based on the prevailing interest rates, which have increased. An increase in the discount rate would mitigate a significant portion of any decline in the fund asset value. We expect to know the impact of the 2008 market activity on our 2009 pension expense and funding reference early next year after the net actuarial evaluations being completed. Lastly, while Bill mentioned 2008 guidance, I would like to touch upon the timing of 2009 guidance. We anticipate providing 2009 guidance when we held our fourth quarter earnings conference call. At that point, we'll have more clarity on 2009 pension expense, and we will have received the ACC decision in our interim rate case, which we expect by year end. That concludes my prepared remarks. I'll turn the call over to Don.
Donald E. Brandt - President and Chief Operating Officer, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation; President and Chief Executive Officer, Arizona Public Service Company: Thanks, Jim. I'll begin with the regulatory matters. We have two significant matters pending before the Arizona Corporation Commission, both of which are critical to meeting the needs of Arizona's energy future. We have a general retail rate case pending at the ACC. We updated the filing on June second to reflect the test year at December 31st, 2007. The filing request and net increase in annual retail revenues of $278 million to become effective on October 1st of 2009. The filing includes several proposed methods to reduce regulatory lag in resulting earnings attrition. We are currently into discovery phase of the case responding to data request. The next major procedural milestone will be the December 19th filing of initial written testimony on revenue requirement by the ACC staff and other interveners. Thereafter, several sets of testimony will be filed by the parties to the case. The hearing on the general rate case is scheduled to begin next spring on April 2nd. Although, progress is being made in the general rate case, we simply cannot wait until late next year for a decision on that filing, as you already know to address APS's financial condition during the intervening timeframe. We filed a request on June 6th with the ACC for an interim phase rate increase until permanent rates become effective under the pending general rate case; the interim rate relief which provide critically needed cash flow and be a significant step towards showing up our credit metrics and our earnings. The interim request as for rate increase of 4%, which would increase annual pre-tax revenues by $115 million, the amount would be subject to refund depending on the eventual outcome of the general rate case. It is essential that the ACC grant this request to provide financial stability for APS and to assure our investment grade credit ratings. Loss of APS's investment grade credit ratings would result in hundreds of million of dollars of needless additional financing cost that would ultimately be borne by our customers. The hearing on the inner request was conducted in the week of September 15th. The positions of the ACC staff and interveners can be summarized as follows: first, the ACC staff consultants generally do not recommend that the commission grants and interim increase. However, if the commissioners choose to grant an interim increase, the staff consultants recommend that they grant an increase in annual pre-tax revenues of $65 million. This amount was calculated based on the change in traditional rate base between September 30th, 2005 and December 31st, 2007. The test year end dates in the last rate case and the current case. Although the staff consultants initially recommended that an equity infusion from Pinnacle West in the APS should be required part of such an increase becoming affective. Based on evidence we presented during the hearing, staff determined with such a pre-condition was no longer appropriate. The residential-consumer advocate RECO does not support an interim increase. A group of large commercial and industrial customers known as Arizonans for electric choice and competition recommended a $42 million annual interim revenue increase beginning in January 2009. The Arizona investment council and an intervener group of merchant generators both support APS's entire request. The final post hearing briefs were filed on October 8th and we are waiting the recommend order from the administrative law judge. After the ALJ issues for recommendation, there is typically a 10 calendar day period for filing exceptions. The commissioners will consider the matter in an open meeting sometime after the exceptions have been filled with the decision expected before year end. As of September 30th, APS had $58 million of accumulated PSA deferrals. We expect about half that balance to be collected by this year end. With the strong enhancements to our PSA that were approved by the ACC last year, we are in a much better position with respect to fuel cost recovery than we have been in past years. With regard to transmission rates, I mentioned on our last call that Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved APS's transmission rate settlement, including formula rate making. As such, we are well-positioned that the federal and state levels to implement annual changes to our wholesale and retail transmission rates. The wholesale rates will be adjusted June 1st of each year, and we expect the retail rates related to transmission charges to be adjusted correspondingly a short-time thereafter through our retail transmission cost adjuster. Now, I'll turn to our recent operating performance. The Palo Verde units have been running very well. The combined capacity factor for the Palo Verde units was 97% during the third quarter, up from 89% in last year's third quarter. Currently, units 2 and 3 are operating at 100% power. Unit 1 is in a planned refueling outage, which is expected to be completed in the next week or so. As most of you know Palo Verde has two refueling outages each year, the next refueling outages were unit 3 next spring and unit 2 next fall. We're making substantial progress on our site improvement plan, and we are working closely with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at various levels to ensure that all issues are addressed. We are committed to returning Palo Verde to sustainable first quartile performance. We currently expect the NRC confirmatory action letter to be cleared and unit 3 to be moved out of column 4 of the NRC's oversight metrics by the end of next year. Our coal-fired plants continued to operate exceptionally. In the third quarter, the units operated at an 94% capacity factor, which was essentially the same as a year ago. Our coal-fired plants have consistently performed at a level that is substantially above the industry average, and we expect them to do so again this year. Our strong commitment to renewable resources continues. In September, the ACC approved our participation in the Solana generating station. Additionally, Congress approved the extension of the federal tax credits for solar and wind generation. These steps moved the 280 Megawatts Solana plant closer to construction and lead the way toward future opportunities. Employees throughout our organization are focused on operational excellence. Over the Labor Day weekend, the metropolitan Phoenix area experienced several storms that unleashed heavy rain, hail and winds comparable to a category three hurricane. No greater storm has hit the hard of Phoenix in the past 40 years. Initially, 80,000 APS customers were out of service. The APS crews response to storm exemplified customer service excellence, which garnered a very public thank you from the Mayor of the City of Phoenix in the largest news paper in our state. We have worked hard to maintain top notch customer service and continually strive to raise the bar even higher. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, at this point we will be pleased to take any questions. Question And Answer