Randy Hogan
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Let me just begin on Slide 4 with a summary of how 2015 has started and how we see Pentair positioned for the remainder of 2015. As we announced two weeks ago this year has started off significantly below our initial forecast. We expected most of our energy related businesses to be challenged this year given the dramatic decline in oil prices in the second half of 2014. But a global capital spending freeze and its impact on industrial businesses was not foreseen. We do not see this to be a Pentair specific issue as this broad-based decline was across virtually every business, every geography and every market. In fact, the only geography of growth we saw was North America. We believe there is broad, economic uncertainty that is contributing to delays in our customer’s spending habits, and we have felt this in both large projects and some MRO business. As a result of the dramatic impact of FX translation and a significantly slower start to the year we are now taking a cautious position on any expected recovery this year. So we have gone back to our cost [paybook] and are working aggressively to adjust our cost structures accordingly. Our balance sheet remains healthy and we expect 2015 to still be a strong free cash flow year. We will continue to invest in M&A where appropriate while executing on costs. Given the uncertainty, we have rebuilt the plan to drive performance in 2015 to equal 2014. As a result we are adjusting our 2015 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $3.80 per share, making 2015 a pause year. We believe that Pentair is in attractive markets for the long term. We have detailed plans in place to work through the anticipated near-term challenges and we are executing them. Now let us turn to Slide 5 for a quick look at our key 2015 forecast assumptions. Given the significantly slower start to 2015 as a result of the global capital strike we are experiencing, we are now expecting our core sales for the year to decline 2 to 3 percentage points instead of growing 2% to 3%. Given the first quarter top line shortfall and its negative operating leverage, we could not adjust our cost structure quickly enough in Q1. But we still expect operating margins to expand roughly 50 basis points for the full year. We completed $200 million of share repurchases in January, and we’re still focused on our active M&A list in our most attractive businesses. John will outline in detail the cost actions being taken both variable and fixed as we adjust to the start of 2015. As a result of these actions, we are expecting roughly 40 million of repositioning benefits this year, an accumulative 100 million plus in 2016. Our balance sheet capacity is over 800 million. Although the external headwinds have worsened, we are focusing on the elements within our control. This includes getting more aggressive on cost actions, continuing to invest in differentiated growth, and as I mentioned, select M&A where appropriate. Now let us turn to Slide 6 for a discussion of our first-quarter results. This first quarter saw our core sales decline 4% as all verticals declined except Food & Beverage. The one geography that performed well was North America, but we saw weakness in all other key geographies, particularly in fast growth regions. As previously mentioned, FX was a significant headwind in the quarter. Given the sharper than anticipated volume declines, productivity and price were not enough to compensate and we saw adjusted operating income decline and margins contract in the quarter. Cash flow was a typical seasonal usage where we expect another strong free cash flow year, and expect significant improvements in sequential cash flow improvement. Now let us turn to Slide 7 for a more detailed look at the first quarter results. Our 4% core sales decline consists of 5 points of volume decline and one point of positive contribution from price. FX subtracted another 6%. Adjusted operating income declined 15% in the quarter and operating margins contracted 60 basis points, even though we continued to see lean sourcing actions and standardization efforts and G&A gained traction. We are accelerating our cost actions to adjust to the reality of the FX environment and lower core volumes, which should reverse this operating margin contraction. Now let us turn to Slide 8 for a review of our largest segment, Valves & Controls. Valves & Controls has seen a fair amount of quarter to quarter volatility in its performance, and the first quarter saw both sales and orders fall double digits. North America was the one pocket of strength, particularly in processed and with LNG customers. But all other geographies were down with double-digit declines in fast growth regions as customers seem to be delaying and in some cases canceling projects. For the first quarter, Valves & Controls core sales declined 11% and FX translation was a further 8% headwind. Including significant adjustments due to currency translation the quarter ending backlog declined 4% sequentially following a 7% decline in the fourth quarter of 2014. Over half of this six-month backlog decline was the result of FX headwinds. Given that backlog is generally shippable in the next 6 to 12 months we feel it was prudent to adjust backlog for FX to give the most appropriate view of the state of the business. Core orders declined 15%, which we’ll discuss in more detail in the next slide. Total orders declined 22% while including negative FX translation. During the quarter we saw some customers [directed] delays of scheduled shipments, and this accelerated near the end of the quarter. We anticipate some delays and expedites in shipments every quarter. The first quarter saw an even greater amount of net delays than we are accustomed to seeing. We did not see a material increase in project cancellation. We are seeing more customers requesting delayed deliveries which is not surprising within oil and gas, but we have also seen in the process industries. The right half of the page shows first-quarter Valves & Controls operating profits and margins. While our lean sourcing and standardization continued to drive productivity within Valves & Controls, it was not enough to offset the volume drops in an already typically slow period, and FX translation also had some impact in the 30% drop in operating income. We are still making progress with our changed agenda and gross margins in Valves & Controls expanded as a result of strong productivity. So we continue to feel good about our efforts underway, including lean transformation and the OMT initiative within Valves & Controls. While the strong margins gains of the past two years are encouraging, there is much more to do. So we plan to go even more aggressively after the cost structure and getting results from where we are investing for growth. Now let us turn to Slide 9 for a look at the orders and backlogs for Valves & Controls. As you can see on Slide 9, Valves & Controls backlog is broken down into four key industries, three of which fall under our energy vertical, those being oil and gas, power and mining, and one in our industrial vertical, which is called [process here]. Orders were down double digits across all four industries in the quarter, while the impacts to our energy related businesses were not a surprise given the decline in oil prices, process order weakness was not expected and declined globally with North America the lone bright spot. We are not expecting orders to improve during 2015 as customers continue to re-evaluate existing projects and in their pipelines for planning projects. Although backlog has been hurt by the stronger dollar, we saw a decline in our backlog in real business terms as well. We will continue to focus on capturing shorter cycle MRO business, which has remained somewhat stronger than projects. While we do not expect the global capital strike to last forever, we are being cautious and are rightsizing to the current reality that Valves & Controls is likely to see top line pressure throughout the year. We continue to believe in the long-term prospects for Valves & Controls and the transformation underway. For the next several quarters we will be focused more on cost, while anticipating increasing price pressure on the existing business. Now let us move to Slide 10 for a look at flow and filtration solutions. Flow and filtration solutions saw a 13% top line decline. Its core sales fell 7% and FX translation was an additional 6% impact. All four verticals served by flow and filtration solutions saw a decline. Residential and commercial fell 11% as global weakness and destocking in some of our North American distributing channels impacted the top line. Infrastructure was down 14% as municipalities continued to delay spending, although we have remained more disciplined on pricing and believe we are seeing declines greater than in the served market. Food & Beverage was down 2% as the strength in global beer and diary was not enough to offset declines in agriculture spending. Segment income declined 16%, but margins contracted only 40 basis points despite the volumes, FX and mix drags during the quarter. Productivity readout was strong and we believe we continue to have a long runway for improvement in margins within flow and filtration solutions. Given the weaker top line environment we plan to go after more than just G&A standardization opportunities and accelerate our rightsizing efforts within this segment. Now let us move to Slide 11 for a look at Water Quality Systems. Water Quality Systems was a bright spot in the quarter with core sales growth of 4%. The growth within Water Quality Systems was not a surprise given that they are over 70% in North America and mostly serve the residential and commercial, including beverage verticals, which have been our two growth verticals recently. Our aquatic systems business started strongly and we believe it is well positioned entering the pool season. Our foodservice business continued to grow globally with core sales up 11% in the quarter. The right half of the page shows first quarter Water Quality Systems operating profits and margins. Segment income grew 3% and margins expanded 40 basis points to 16.1%. Price and productivity offset inflation and new product development investments continue. Our outlook for Water Quality Systems remains positive and we expect to see solid growth and margin expansion for the full year. Let us now turn to Slide 12 for a look at technical solutions results. Technical solutions saw core sales grow 1%, which was offset by a 6% FX translation headwind. Energy was up 2% as our heat management solutions business entered the year with strong backlog, including two larger projects beginning to shift. We will watch orders closely as the year progresses. Industrial was flat as our equipment protection business was impacted by delays in industrial spending that occurred in the quarter. Residential and commercial grew nicely and despite a tough comp, infrastructure also was up modestly driven by telecom. The right half of the page shows first-quarter technical solutions operating profits and margins. Segment income declined 8% and margins contracted 70 basis points to 18.4%. With the absence of price in the quarter, productivity was not enough to offset inflation and mix further hampered the income and margin performance during the quarter. Negative FX transaction cost were a factor in margins as strong growth in Canada, combined with the strengthening dollar, squeezed margins on our U.S.-made products. Following the end of the first quarter, we closed a small bolt on acquisition within technical solutions for our thermal building solutions business, which we believe has attractive growth opportunities. We have five criteria around acquisitions and this transaction met all five. The deal made strategic sense. It made financial sense. We were the right buyers. We have a detailed integration plan, and we know who will lead that integration. Process and Technical Solutions will be addressed in cost structure as a result of FX and mix, we believe we have interesting M&A tunnel for this segment. Now let us turn to Slide 13 for a review of our key verticals and our expectations for growth in 2015. Given the difficult start to the year, we have adjusted our expectations across all verticals. Starting with industrial, our largest vertical representing roughly 29% of sales, we now expect core sales to decline 4% to 6% in 2015. While Valves & Controls continued to see strength in sales with its North American customers in the first quarter, the rest of the globe saw a sharp decline in orders. The remaining parts of Valves & Controls, industrial business, also saw weakness including industrial gas and shipbuilding. We now expect the channel and customer destocking to continue throughout the year and pricing is something that we are actively managing. Core sales in our second largest vertical, residential and commercial, are still expected to grow 2% to 3% for the full year. But the slow start to the year has lead us to shave a couple of points off of our expected full-year growth rate. We believe that our aquatics systems business within Water Quality Systems is well positioned for another strong pool season in North America, and while a smaller piece of our vertical we expect improvements in non-residential construction as well. Roughly 10% of our sales are within our Food & Beverage vertical, which we expect to grow 5% to 7% on a core basis for the full year. This is on the anticipated strength of our global beverage and food service businesses. Food service had a great first quarter and should stay strong through 2015. While core sales growth in beverage is also expected to be strong, this is a global business and we expect to be negatively impacted by FX translation. The strength in beverage is in both beer and diary. Within Food & Beverage, we also include the agriculture related businesses in flow and filtration solutions. While we are driving differentiated growth in agriculture, it will likely continue to be a drag on growth in our Food & Beverage vertical. Within our infrastructure vertical, which accounts for less than 10% of our overall sales, we are now anticipating a modest decline in core sales for 2015. We knew our electronics protection business in the technical space had tough comparisons to start the year, but we are encouraged to see modest growth in the first quarter. We expect our infrastructure related businesses within flow and filtration solution, serving global desalination, water treatment and water supply to continue to be challenged. While it appears the municipal desalination markets have bottomed, we do not expect any recovery this year. Within North America the infrastructure break and fix business, we expect it to remain mixed with continued price competition. We now expect energy core sales to decline 6% to 8% for the year. This includes oil and gas, power and mining industries for us. The upstream business has been as weak as we had anticipated. We now expect to continue the pause in shorter cycle downstream business with capital spending delays or reductions have spread to midstream and downstream as well. We saw continued strength in North America in LNG, but the majority of global oil and gas was as weak if not weaker than we are expecting entering 2015. Let us now turn to Slide 14 for a look at our updated 2015 adjusted EPS guidance. As we take into account the challenging start to the year and the pause in global capital spending we are adjusting our guidance to approximately $3.80 per share from a range of $4.10 to $4.25 per share. The volume shortfall will not be overcome in one quarter. We are taking corrective cost actions that we expect to begin to read out in the second half of 2015, and also benefit 2016. Begum not foresee the industrial pause continuing indefinitely, but until we see customers beginning to spend again, we will remain cautious. In the meantime, we plan to continue to invest for the long term. Not all of our businesses have been impacted in the short term and with our strong balance sheet and cash flow we will be thoughtful as we look at M&A opportunities. With that, I'll turn the call over to John to give more details on the cost actions we are taking and provide additional color on the outlook. John?