Randall J. Hogan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Analyst
Yes, Dean, let me start with the end market, as I mentioned, that is you pointed it out. The end market sales are sales out of distribution into the actual... in the actual pools came in about where we thought it would be, we thought it would be down about 10% driven largely... we are between 55% and 60% replacement, but with housing starts down so steeply, particularly where we have our largest market share. We are the largest market share player in Southern California, Las Vegas, Arizona, Texas, Florida. With the exception at Texas those are all the markets that have been impacted the worst in terms of the housing slowdown. That came in about like we thought. In terms of the end market sales, the replacement is happening, but the upgrades that we might expect to have happened isn't, people aren't upgrading like... they're not upgrading controls the way they... we'd like to see them do. So, I think we have an opportunity to do some better marketing and sales on the replacement cycle, but they are replacing pumps and they are replacing filters. So, in terms of the distribution drawing down inventory, I think part of that was the weather, it was a little bit of a slow start to the summer. So, I think they were over inventoried and that was one of the factors, but I also think they are being very cautious because they didn't see the pick up and together managing their own cash. So, I think we... I don't think we were bullish about what would happen with inventory, but I don't think we anticipated this. We anticipated later in the year, they typically take their inventory down at the end of the third quarter, which gets to maybe your last point, your last question, which was shouldn't the inventory be done, shouldn't that bow low for the second half. I wanted to put that... we wanted to that on the upside, we didn't want to count on this, so when we say that we expect the business to be down in the second half to 15%, we are not expecting a big inventory to climb, but that's also worse than a 10% run rate sell through. So, I'd say that our outlook is the sober one on that. I don't think we are losing share, I think that the markets that have slow down less are where we have lower share. So, I view that as an opportunity to be beef up [ph] our share, I am talking about the Midwest would stay right as strong where Pentair isn't such a strong brand. In the Northeast, Hayward is still the Number 1 brand, I think we have opportunities to beef up our share there.