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PNDXF (PNDXF) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

PNDXF (PNDXF)

Q3 2026 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 22, 2026

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PNDXF Q3 2026 Earnings Call Key Takeaways

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PNDXF Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Anders Berg

Management

Thank you very much. Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of Pandox's Q3 Interim Report for 2026 on a rather gray morning here in Stockholm. I'm here together with Liia Nou, our CEO; and Anneli Lindblom, our CFO. And today, we have the pleasure once again of having both Aoife Roche, Vice President at STR and Henrik Karlsson from Benchmarking Alliance with us. Aoife and Henrik will provide a shorter hotel market update on Europe and Nordics, respectively. And as you know, STR and Benchmarking Alliance are both leading independent research firms dedicated to the hotel market and the views they express are completely separate from Pandox and we offer this as a service to Pandox stakeholders. And Aoife and Henrik's presentation will take place after we have completed the formal earnings presentation, including the Q&A. So we start with Liia and Anneli's business update and financial highlights from the quarter, followed by the Q&A session. So with that, I hand over to Liia.

Liia Nou

CEO

Thank you, Anders, and good morning, and welcome, everyone. Despite continued geopolitical challenges, the hotel market continued to grow during the third quarter. For Pandox, total revenue and net operating income increased by 15% and 25%, respectively, primarily driven by strong performance in the leases business segment, particularly in Sweden, where we saw exceptional growth and a continued contribution from the acquisition of Dalata. Like-for-like, total revenues and total NOI grew with 4%, respectively. Cash earnings per share increased by 31%, while EPRA NAV per share with a dividend paid in April added back increased by more than 17% on an annual basis, demonstrating continued value creation for shareholders. Adjusted for preparatory financial costs of SEK 22 million in the comparable quarter, cash earnings increased by 23%. The Dalata properties performed well during the quarter, generating a rental income of SEK 357 million with strong profitability. For the first 9 months of the year, rental income from Dalata amounted to SEK 880 million. Today, we also announced the divestment of 7 hotel properties in Denmark and Sweden with an underlying property value of approximately SEK 2.1 billion, which is higher than the book values for the properties. The properties have approximately SEK 130 million in yearly net operating income, and the transactions are expected to close in the fourth quarter this year. At the end of the third quarter, our loan-to-value ratio was 52.2% compared to 52.4% at the end of the second quarter of 2026. But adjusted for the announced divestments in Denmark and Sweden, the loan-to-value ratio was 51.2%, 1 percentage points down. In the beginning of the quarter, 6 former Revo Hospitality Group hotels in Germany were transferred to own operations. Anneli will provide more details on the effects from this change later in this presentation. We are active in Europe, the world's largest hotel and tourism market with strong structural growth drivers. We only invest in hotel properties and create value through active and engaged ownership. We have long-term revenue-based leases with a WAULT of 12.9 years and good guaranteed minimum rent levels with skilled operators. Including the revenue-based leases with Scandic for the Dalata portfolio, the WAULT is 17.1 years. Our property portfolio has an average blended valuation yield of 6.39% and the yield spread of close to 220 basis points. We systematically invest in climate change projects in our portfolio with good returns based on FTI (sic) [ SBTi ] validated targets. And we have strong cash flow and a balanced financial position, which enable us to drive continuous profitable growth through acquisitions of new properties and investments in our existing portfolio over time. We have a strong and well-diversified hotel property portfolio consisting of 191 hotel properties with more than 42,000 rooms in 11 countries and 90 cities and with a property market value of approximately SEK 97 billion. We are divided into 2 mutually supportive and reinforcing business segments, leases and own operations. Leases where we own and lease out our hotel properties stands for 84% of our property market value. In our own operations, we transform and run hotels in properties we own. Own operations make up 16% of our property market value. And the focus of our portfolio is in strong locations, mainly upper mid-market hotels with mostly domestic demand, which is the backbone of the hotel market, regardless of which phase the hotel market cycle is in. We also have one of the strongest networks of brands and partners in the hotel property industry. And this ensures efficient operations and revenue management, which maximize cash flow and property values and a continuous flow of business opportunities. And also, a relatively large part of the investment in leases is shared with the tenant, which, of course, lowers our risk. The Dalata properties are performing well. In the third quarter, they generated rental income of SEK 357 million with strong profitability. For the first 9 months of the year, rental income from Dalata amounted to SEK 880 million. Assuming that the corresponding lease agreements have been in place during the comparative period, revenue growth for the Dalata portfolio in the third quarter is estimated at 4% in the U.K. and 1% in Ireland. Year-to-date, growth is estimated at 3% in U.K. and again, 1% in Ireland. The performance is in line with our expectation and confirms the quality of the acquired portfolio. The separation of Dalata business into a property-owning business and hotel operating business is progressing well and is expected to be completed during the fourth quarter of 2026. Once the process is completed, Pandox will have an even stronger platform for long-term growth and value creation. In parallel, we have engaged in positive discussions with banks regarding the refinancing of the current acquisition financing for Dalata, replacing it with secured property financing. Indications are that this could be done at a clearly lower credit margin and that we most likely also can increase our liquidity reserve at that point should we so desire. Here, we have a breakdown of the performance in the first 9 months of 2026 for a selection of countries, regions and cities versus the first 9 months of 2025. We show average daily rate on the vertical axis and occupancy on the horizontal axis. Thus Origo is the point corresponding to 2025 on both ADR and occupancy. In the boxes, we indicate how much higher or lower RevPAR is compared with the corresponding period 2025. And the circles indicate the share of Pandox's property market values in each country. Basically, all markets have grown this year in terms of RevPAR. The best performing markets in the period are Sweden, Denmark and the U.K. and Belgium shows a slight decline. Aoife Roche from STR and Henrik Karlsson from Benchmarking Alliance will shed more light on the underlying trends in the hotel market later in this call. Investments in our standing portfolio is an important part of our business model and of course, capital allocation. At the moment, we have approximately 50 projects planned and ongoing in 8 different countries. The total investment volume for this project is approximately SEK 4.1 billion, of which some SEK 1.9 billion has already been spent. The stabilized target yield on cost of the total amount is approximately 9.4%. The estimated stabilized NOI represents the additional or say, incremental annual NOI generated once these investments have reached the full potential normally after 2 to 4 years. In 2026 and 2027, our planned investments are higher than normal due to 3 large projects. It's the conversion of Clayton St Andrew Square in Edinburgh, planned completion in first quarter 2027. The extension of Clayton Cardiff Lane in Dublin and the extension of DoubleTree by Brussels City planned to be completed in the second half of 2027. In these projects, we have already invested more than SEK 1 billion, basically with a 0 return so far since they have yet to be launched commercially. And as a final note, divestments are an important part in driving capital efficiency. The announced divestments in Denmark and Sweden show we are both willing and capable of exploring that when the price is right. And with that, I hand over to Anneli Lindblom, our CFO.

Anneli Lindblom

CFO

Thank you. Thank you, Liia, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, total revenue and group net operating income increased by 23% and 29%, respectively, driven by the acquisition of Dalata and positive like-for-like growth. Leases reported growth of 37% in revenue and 39% in net operating income. Like-for-like growth was 7% and 8%, respectively, driven by the exceptionally strong demand in Sweden and to some extent, also in Denmark. The U.K. and Germany also contributed positively to like-for-like growth in the quarter. Own operations reported higher revenues and lower NOI. Like-for-like revenues increased by 1%. RevPAR was unchanged, while NOI decreased by 6%. Underlying, Germany performed well, while London and Brussels continue to struggle due to a combination of factors such as disruption in the inbound travel from the Middle East for London and supply and weaker meeting demand in Brussels. Brussels was also affected by an increase in tourism tax. On top, we also had a onetime cost, including pretermination of 2 management agreements in the period. As we wrote in the report and as Liia said, in the beginning of the third quarter, we also took over the hotel operations for 6 of the 9 hotel properties previously leased by Revo Hotel Hospitality Group. That added hotel revenue of SEK 96 million to the segment own operation and it lower -- at a lower-than-average profitability, and it did lower the rent segment by SEK 37 million in the business segment leases. In business area leases, we also had a onetime cost of SEK 11 million related to the Revo process. The 6 owned operated hotel properties remain classified as investment properties, while we explore the possibility to lease them out again. Reported and adjusted cash earnings grew 31% and 23%, respectively, in the third quarter, reflecting both Dalata and strong underlying growth in the lease portfolio. As we wrote in the report, going into the fourth quarter, our comps will be a bit more difficult since we have had Dalata in the numbers from the early November 2025. On this slide, we show the change in the main valuation parameters for the total property portfolio year-to-date. And please remember that investment properties are recognized as fair value and according to IFRS, unrealized changes in value for operating properties are only reported for the information purpose and is included in our EPRA NAV calculation. For the period, the total unrealized changes in value were a negative SEK 342 million. We had a positive effect from lower yields in leases and a negative effect from both cash flow and yields in own operations. Property values also benefited from a depreciation of the Swedish krona. End of period, the average valuation yield for investment properties with some rounding effects rose marginally to 6.32%. For operating properties, it was unchanged at 7.68%. And the blended yield edged up 3 basis points to 6.39%. Here, we have the average yield, the average interest on debt and EPRA NAV per share quarterly. The average interest on debt end of period increased 7 basis points to 4.08% from 4.01% in the second quarter. And the yield spread narrowed slightly down to some 230 basis points. And in the end of the period, EPRA NAV was SEK 242.22 per share, representing a solid 17.4% annualized growth adjusted for paid dividends in 2026. Our LTV at the end of the quarter amounted to 52.2%. Adjusted for the divestment in Denmark and Sweden, the LTV was at 51.2%, and we are well within our financial policy range on both numbers. The ICR on a rolling 12-month basis was 2.4x and cash and credit facilities amounted to SEK 3.5 billion. The trend with good demand from banks and lower credit margins remained intact. We were very active on new financing and refinancing in the quarter. New loans and refinancing amounted to SEK 6 billion for the period. The average repayment period was 1.9 years. And at the end of the quarter, we have SEK 15 billion on debt maturing within 1 year, and this is including the acquisition facilities related to Dalata. And as said previously, the average interest on debt increased by 7 basis points to 4.08% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. This is explained by slightly higher base rate and expiration of some favorable hedge contracts. We have positive discussions ongoing with Nordic and the international banks to refinance the acquisition facility with traditional property bank financing, indicatively at clearly lower margins. And bank appetite to finance our hotel properties remains very strong. At the moment, approximately 58% of the net debt is hedged compared with 59% in the second quarter. And with that, I will hand back to Liia for some final remarks.

Liia Nou

Operator

Thank you, Anneli. So despite all the turbulence in the world, the world economy and the hotel market have remained resilient. The outlook for the hotel market in Europe remains positive. For us, inflation and rising interest rates is the main concern. However, variable leases offer protection by direct exposure to underlying hotel pricing. As Anneli said, 58% of our net debt is hedged, and we see good potential to complete upcoming refinancing at clearly lower credit margins than we currently have in our loan portfolio. In addition, we have quite a few larger renovated hotels that are expected to gradually contribute to our earnings in 2027. For Q4 2026, underlying cash earnings faced again a challenging comparable quarter due to SEK 263 million of extraordinary costs in the comparable quarter last year. Also, remember, Dalata was included from 7th of November last year and higher financial costs compared to last year. Thank you. So we now move over to the Q&A. And operator, we are now ready for questions. And please do not forget to hand the call back to us afterwards after our external speakers' presentation.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Robert Phillips from Green Street.

Robert Phillips

Analyst · Green Street

I just have 2 questions. I'll go one by one. So firstly, I was just wondering if you could give us a bit more color on your bookings for 4Q and perhaps early 2027 because, of course, airlines have been warning particularly in the last few weeks about higher fares. And I was just wondering also if you've seen any changes to lead times.

Liia Nou

Operator

Right. When we look at the business of books, in basically all our markets with one exception, if I remember right, then they are at or above the same level as they were previous years. The only slightly weaker is Norway, but this is not sort of -- it is marginally lower than at the same time. But for the Nordic countries and even for Finland, we look at Brussels, et cetera, then they are -- business on the book is either at or above the same level.

Robert Phillips

Analyst · Green Street

Perfect. And then just on U.S. demand, and of course, it's been a very strong driver of the European hotel market broadly, and it softened quite a lot this year. And I was just wondering if you've seen any impact of this on certain markets like the U.K. and Ireland and as well as the kind of weak demand from the Middle East as well?

Liia Nou

Operator

Yes. Yes, we were a little bit worried about this also in the beginning of the year, especially after the February event. But we have slightly less -- it's still been sort of more than previous years, but it's slightly weakened even though it's above -- from U.S. to inbound Europe. However, when we look at Europe travelers going to U.S., it's actually increased with 9% or so. So the net-net effect of that is actually positive, but slightly weaker versus what it was at the beginning of the year, but it's still above the levels of last year.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Veronique Meertens from Van Lanschot Kempen.

Veronique Meertens

Analyst · Van Lanschot Kempen

Two questions from my side as well. So first, on the 9 Revo assets, could you give a bit more color on what exactly the plan is for the 6 ones transferred to own operations? Do you actually expect to spend some CapEx there? And are there already discussions with future tenants? And what was exactly the reason for those 6 moving to own operations and the other 3 still in leases?

Liia Nou

Operator

Yes. We -- the 6 operating assets, which we're taking into our own operations so far, we are assessing them, and we see good potential of actually fixing the patient. The patient is slightly ill. We have to fix the patient, and then we are planning to lease them out. At this point in time, we don't see a large CapEx needs. But of course, there will be sort of a lot of different efficiency activities, everything from sort of smaller CapEx needs, et cetera, et cetera. When it comes to comparing the 6 with the 3 ones which we are in discussions with or which the administrators are in discussion with of leasing out, these are -- they have -- there is an existing dialogue going on with an expected tenant and the administrator of the bankruptcy portfolio. So this is an ongoing discussion between the administrator and the future tenant. And hopefully, this will be ready in this fourth quarter.

Veronique Meertens

Analyst · smaller CapEx needs, et cetera, et cetera. When it comes to comparing the 6 with the 3 ones which we are in discussions with or which the administrators are in discussion with of leasing out, these are -- they have -- there is an existing dialogue going on with an expected tenant and the administrator of the bankruptcy portfolio. So this is an ongoing discussion between the administrator and the future tenant. And hopefully, this will be ready in this fourth quarter

Okay. That's helpful. And then secondly, well, you mentioned there was a very small yield up shift in Q3 for your leases. Just curious how your discussions are with the appraisers for Q4 or what your own view is towards these property yields in higher rate environment that we're currently in?

Liia Nou

Operator

Yes. Well, we -- as you know, we -- every quarter, we assess all of our 191 properties with external yield assumptions. There have been minor revisions from the external yields, and that has been basically more on sort of second-rated locations. So it's a mix -- so it's a blended mix of everything what is happening going on. So far, it's difficult. We don't know more than external evaluators. But in this current environment, we are in line with what external evaluators view as the proper yields. We have externally evaluated 75 of our 191 properties in Q3 as well.

Operator

Operator

There are no more phone questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions.

Liia Nou

Operator

So now I would like to hand over to our first guest speaker, Aoife Roche from STR for a European hotel market update. And after Aoife's presentation, Henrik Karlsson from Benchmarking Alliance will make a presentation, which focus on the Nordic hotel market. And again, please remember that Aoife and Henrik's presentations are totally separate and independent from Pandox and also arranged as a service to our stakeholders. So please go ahead, Aoife.

Aoife Roche

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you, Liia, for the introduction. So first up, I'm going to focus on European demand with a deep dive into the U.K. and Ireland, and then Henrik will follow with more information on the Nordics. So globally, demand is up by 1.2%. As you can see, it is the Asia Pacific performance that is leading the way with India out on top, growing by 7%. The U.S. has also made its way to the top of this month year-to-date after a bumper summer, particularly June and July due to the World Cup month. But actually, this year has been performing well overall for the U.S. Demand is up by 15 million rooms, and we forecast RevPAR growth of 4.4% for full year 2026. Now much like rest of world, the majority of that ADR growth is coming through the upper tiers, luxury, upper upscale and upscale, indicating some international demand, as Liia referenced, coming back into the U.S., but also some U.S. travelers staying domestically rather than traveling outbound, which we have felt in Europe a little bit this year. Europe as a whole is up around 2%. You can see at the top there, Spain, France and Germany growing demand at around that 2% mark and the U.K. slightly below at 0.8%, And of course, GCC countries demand continues to be turned negative, back 16% now year-to-date, and this has improved by about 9 percentage points since the onset of the conflict. Now despite the conflict, rooms in construction remain very elevated in the Middle East region, as you can see, 11.7% growth on existing supply expected. For Europe, a growth of 3% is expected on its current 6.6 million rooms. There are 190,000 rooms currently in construction according to CoStar data. For the U.K., there are 26,000 rooms in construction, which will result in a 3.5% growth on existing supply. In the U.K., it is really London, Edinburgh and Manchester that have the highest rooms in construction, and you will see the impact of that in the forecast as I move through this presentation. So with supply growth relatively moderate in Europe and in the U.K., this has allowed for some occupancy gains, so 1% growth. And after a strong summer in Europe overall, occupancy has reached a peak of 72%. So over 710 rooms sold in Europe year-to-date. And most European markets, particularly the urban markets are running exceptionally high occupancies. I count 9 markets with 80% or more in occupancy. York, interestingly at the top in the U.K., right down to the Canary Islands in ninth place. So very, very high occupancy in the most part, the majority of markets are running in the 70s. So with the exception of the Middle East and Central America, all regions are seeing very similar occupancy trends. Now, we have established over the year that demand growth is not necessarily fundamental for rate growth, but it also is not just inflation. Supply and demand factors contribute significantly to ADR outcomes. And we continue to see double-digit ADR growth in Europe. Countries such as Turkey and Italy are really dominating that statistic. But it is worth noting that there has been little to no supply coming into these markets in the past 12 months. So there really is that strong relationship between the 2. So like I said, Europe's summer performance was excellent and as expected, weekend occupancy in coastal markets were very strong throughout July and August, confirming that the expected intra-regional travel, the strength of that intra-European travel really played out in the coastal and leisure markets. Many leisure city markets also saw occupancy grow on the weekends. I can name Istanbul, Barcelona and Madrid. All of those leisure-driven markets grew very, very well over the summer. So with strong weekend performance and U.S. inbound still holding up for Southern Europe. So Spain and Portugal have continued to see strong growth beyond that 5% mark, with luxury and upper upscale classes still growing very strongly in terms of ADR. And of course, those key Southern European markets seeing that strong intra-regional travel, RevPAR growth has been strong through the summer and into September, as you can see here. Now we certainly can't thank just the U.S. inbound travel coming back in September for this 10% growth, but we can attribute some of it to that return, as you'll see in the next slide. I think we can also attribute it to the weather. So many leisure markets saw strong ADR growth in the month of September. There were a few outliers like Glasgow and some German markets saw a really good strong September, and a lot of that was event-led rather than purely underlying market growth. Hamburg benefited from a very large Messe in shipbuilding in maritime, SMM. Berlin hosted a major international Congress ESPEN Medical Congress and Munich's September events and of course, the Oktoberfest are creating additional compression. And last for Glasgow, continued success in terms of attracting conference and events. They hosted the European Association for International Education and the SEC, which again resulted in a strong month. So September overall, it has been a wonderful start to the second part of the year. Now we can -- I mentioned that 10% growth coming through in September and some attribution to the U.S. So although we've seen very moderate growth in U.S. inbound in Europe and particularly in the U.K. year-to-date, you can see that September, we have seen a little bit of a comeback with 4% growth. So really pleased to see that come back. In terms of occupancy, occupancy levels remain very high for Northern Europe on the whole. The U.K. and Ireland are selling 8 in 10 rooms that are available this year. So we are seeing some good results in terms of occupancy. I've highlighted the Nordics here running 68% on average year-to-date and sitting in the top 3 in terms of occupancy growth. So with the average occupancy in Europe sitting at 72%, there are some hotspots, like I mentioned, York was one, with Dublin and Edinburgh as well. European occupancy in 2019 was for the full year, 72%. So I wonder whether we've reached that ceiling or if there is room for further growth. Let's see. And in terms of year-on-year growth, there is, like I said, that constant game of tag between supply and demand growth, and there are already very high occupancies for some markets. So this results in some mediocre gains. You can see for the most part, you've got stability in occupancy across key European markets. And for some, we are seeing growth and particularly over in the Eastern part of Europe, where we continue to see that double-digit growth. So in terms of rates, I mentioned European rate has grown just by 3% year-to-date. Now we do know that, that is skewed slightly towards the South and of course, inflated by the Milan Olympics when we look at Italy, but France has grown well, just behind it with 8.4% growth with a strong summer behind it. But resorts are underpinning a lot of that growth in Southern Europe that you are seeing. And it's not the urban markets that are really underpinning that strong double-digit growth. Southern Europe's ADR is out of proportion. And you can see for firstly, you can see the growth here. But you can see on the next slide that Southern European ADR is out of proportion with the rest. It accounts for 54% of Europe's ADR, whereas supply is just 41% of the total supply in Europe. So you can see really that, that total number is changed by the Southern European performance. The European average year-to-date is EUR 156. Eastern Europe is recording EUR 107; Southern Europe, EUR 192. So you can see the difference there. And the rest in the middle, running at around EUR 140. So let's go to the United Kingdom and look at that in a bit more detail. So U.K. demand growth year-to-date, as I mentioned, to August actually was 0.8%. That grew slightly upwards in September, rising to 0.9% when we include September into that demand. We finally see, like I mentioned, that acceleration in U.S. inbound to the U.K. with 4% growth in the month of September, finally matching that of Europe. As you can see in previous months, it was well before -- below the European average and of course, well before that -- below that Italian average. So there is a narrative around September perhaps becoming less of a shoulder season and certainly more attractive to the U.S. inbound traveler for price, temperature, of course. And of course, we're seeing -- continuing to see lots of intra-regional travel through the shoulder seasons, which is helping to lengthen the seasons for many markets previously with shorter summer seasons. In the U.K., almost 8 in 10 rooms have been sold, so a very good performance, and it's pretty much on par with 2025, up 3%. And you can see again, September confirming that much of the growth is coming through ADR. Much of the RevPAR growth is coming through ADR as we see that blue series continue into September. The U.K. hotel occupancy has stabilized with markets sitting at around 78%, but most markets sitting at 70% and above. We have, of course, some exceptions, Dublin leading the charge there with 85%, matching Edinburgh again with 85%. And some strong performance in ADR. That 125 average, although it is below the European average, it is very much on par with the Northern European averages. We see some outliers. Again, London, no surprise with luxury and upper upscale driving a lot of that performance, but Dublin as well performing really well, 181 and then Edinburgh, 177. So the usual suspects continue to drive the ADR. So let's look forward a little bit here. So we can see that the past decade has seen rate grow exponentially. So in September, there is a delta of just EUR 61 when compared to September 2017. So in 10 years, we have seen a 50% gain in rate for Europe as a whole. And if we look to the U.K., the same data, but just for the U.K., there is a GBP 41 delta or exactly 41%. So the majority of this gain has been made, of course, in the recovery post-COVID in those few years post-COVID, but the growth, as you can see, continues into 2026. The leaderboard in the U.K., Glasgow, Edinburgh and many regional nonurban markets have seen the strongest growth, again, confirming the strength of domestic demand and again, starting to see that intra-regional return. So if we look ahead, so this is just European markets, 2027 RevPAR expectations for Europe are pretty stable to negative in some markets, but there is a much more buoyant outlook for 2028. You can see 2027 in more detail here for all of the markets that CoStar forecast, we can see the majority of markets are seeing -- will see positive RevPAR growth in 2027. And then if we go to the last part of this chart, we can see some negative growth, but much of it is due to year-on-year comparisons. So if we take Milan, without the Winter Olympics, of course, there will be decline. And we can see some other markets, Glasgow, again, a lot of non-repeat events for Glasgow, Commonwealth Games being one of them. So there will be a negative performance. And then Belfast and Dublin suffering from additional supply for the most part that will impact the RevPAR outlook in 2027. For the U.K., we do anticipate another mixed year again in 2027. We do expect limited supply growth. And of course, the resumption of flights to and from the Middle East, along with improved inbound demand from the Middle East and Asia Pacific, and now we can count hopefully on the U.S. inbound will support Gatwick and Heathrow business. But with occupancies high, rate is, of course, the only lever for these airport hotels. In the middle, we have London and Manchester that will absorb a lot of new supply in 2027, which will result in low to no occupancy gains. And London will also see a lot of mid-scale economy supply come through, but rate will come through and drive RevPAR growth for those markets. And as I mentioned, Glasgow, the only one with significant decline year-on-year due to the lack or non-repeat events will give a softer outlook for 2027 on the whole. And then if we just compare again, longer term, looking at London and regional U.K. side by side. So RevPAR growth looks healthy, both in 2027 and into 2028 for both London and the regions. Of course, we do not expect the 10-year CAGR ADR to be repeated as we go forward, but we do expect to see positivity in ADR in 2026 and beyond into the future years. Do look out for our November forecast, which will be coming out at the end of November, where we will dive into the euro's impact in more detail. For now, we are expecting all classes and markets to be impacted positively, but it may be the lower classes moment now as new supply is ready and ready to ramp up for future. Thank you very much. I'm going to hand over to Henrik, I believe, and I may need to just flip through these slides for you, Henrik, and I will hand over now.

Henrik Karlsson

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much. My name is Henrik. I'm from Benchmarking Alliance. And in my presentation, we will have a look at the latest market data from the Nordics in particular, but also a little bit from the Baltic region. The data includes September 2026 and is based on more than 2,000 hotels and conference venues that use our benchmarking service and report their data daily to us in this region. So if we start by looking at the RevPAR by country in the Nordics and the Baltics, year-to-date, January to September 2026 versus last year. Sweden and Denmark lead at plus 8.2% and 8.0% in RevPAR increase. They're well ahead of the rest of the region. However, most of the countries show a positive development in the first 3 quarters. Latvia is the only country that is down minus 1.3% after weak September. We will get back to the reason for this drop in the next slide. The bubble size here shows how large each market is in rooms available per night. So Sweden and Norway carry most of the regional volume here. Lithuania is still a small market for us, while the numbers here are based on a smaller selection of hotels compared to the other markets. If we move on to the capitals and also here year-to-date from January to September, Stockholm leads on RevPAR at plus 11.2% with Copenhagen close behind at 8.3%. Helsinki and Tallinn are both back above last year after a strong September, leaving Riga as the only capital below last year at minus 1.5%. And that dip is largely explained by the EuroBasket championships, which Riga hosted last September and which filled the city at high rates for several days. In Stockholm, the ECCO Congress in February, the EHA Congress in June, 2 concerts in July from Bad Bunny and 1 concert in August from the weekend, combined with a generally stronger demand all contributed to the city's growth. Oslo's RevPAR growth in half year 1 2026 was notably more modest by comparison as Nor-Shipping conference in 2025 proved difficult to replace. However, the summer and a very strong September brought growth back into positive figures for Oslo. Copenhagen's success story continues in Q1. Several major medical congresses had a positive effect on both demand and pricing. Q2 was somewhat slower, but the year-to-date development remains strong and the new record number of turnaround cruises, together with a general increase in demand also lifted the summer business in Copenhagen. Reykjavik picked up after a slow start, once again showing that summer is its high season. This year, also the solar eclipse that was totally visible from Iceland and took place in August generated a lot of extra demand. Helsinki had fewer congresses in May and June compared to last year and continues to face challenges in winning back demand from Asian markets. Even so, a stronger September in both Helsinki and Tallinn pushed both cities into positive growth year-to-date. So if we look at RevPAR, ADR and occupancy by capital, also here year-to-date January to September, you can see that the development in Stockholm and Copenhagen is driven mainly by higher average daily rate. In Reykjavik, the same, even if the occupancy drop from the beginning of the year still shows year-to-date. So this is the same view as the previous slide, but here also with TRevPAR in orange color added next to RevPAR. TRevPAR is calculated from total revenue instead of room revenue and includes ancillary revenue. Ancillary revenue is everything from meeting and events revenue, food and beverage, such as restaurants, bar, room service as well as other revenue in the hotels, such as parking, spa or other additional income the hotel might have. In Stockholm, the TRevPAR increase is slightly lower than in RevPAR. Ancillary revenue decreased in all Scandinavian capitals year-to-date. And why I push this here is that it's very wise to also benchmark your TRevPAR to make sure that you are not losing out on your RevPAR increase on the other outlets in the hotel. Conference trends in the Nordics. In our service conference trends, we measure total conference revenue per available square meter. And the trend overall in the Nordics is right now very positive. It's so far this year, up 11.5% in total revenue per square meter. Revenue per delegate is up 6.3% and delegates per square meter is up 4.9%. July is a low season, obviously, with a very small base, which explains the large swings that month. Currently, measured the revenue generated from 142,700 square meters of conference space, and this coverage will increase drastically in the coming months as we will have a lot more data coming into this service. So if we go back to hotel data and we look at the capitals of the Nordics and the Baltics and how they have grown in 2026 so far. And here, we look at ADR change against occupancy change, January to September. Stockholm and Copenhagen grew in both KPIs and other RevPAR leaders at plus 11.2% and 8.3%. Oslo has moved into the same quadrant, but mostly on rate. Reykjavik Vilnius and Riga are rate led. So ADR is up 1.5% to 6%, while occupancy actually falls. In Riga, not enough to hold RevPAR. Helsinki and Tallinn are the opposite, more rooms sold at a slightly lower rate. And what is worth mentioning here is that no capital is actually down on both rate and occupancy. If we look at the different segments and the development year-to-date, Stockholm is up in every segment and led by mid-scale at plus 12.7%. Copenhagen grows across the board, but tapers towards budget. Oslo is up in every segment, though upscale is close to flat at plus 0.3%. And Helsinki split, Luxury is up 10.5%, while upscale and the combined mid-scale budget concepts are down. Figures here are local currency. So the only change -- so only the change is comparable between the cities. So if we look at the regions versus the capitals, we can see that it's actually occupancy that decides. Rate increase is more or less the same in the capitals as in the regional cities in the Nordics. All 68 regional cities consolidated here against the 5 capitals. And capitals grow RevPAR 6.8% against 4.8% for the regions. And we will go a little bit more into details on the regional cities in the coming slides here. But first, just to look at all the 68 regional markets that we measure across Sweden, Norway and Denmark, Finland and Estonia in one map. Every city in the cities report except the capitals. And 57 of the 68 regional markets are up. And just to mention a few, in Finland, the regions grew 4.5% against Helsinki only with 0.9%. So in Finland, the regional cities are driving the development. The Norway regional versus capital show a similar development, Regions plus 1.6% against Oslo 1.8%. In Sweden and Denmark, the capital leads. Stockholm 11.2% plus, as we mentioned before, and Copenhagen, 8.3% has proven difficult to beat for the regional markets. The strongest regional markets are Jönköping and Piteå. The weakest ones are Haugesund and Trondheim, and we will get back to the reason for this in the coming slides. And we start with Sweden, a geographic view of the RevPAR development year-to-date. So Sweden is in total, plus 8.2%, and the growth here is very broad. Out of the 37 markets we measure in Sweden, 32 are up. The strongest are Jönköping, Piteå, Helsingborg, and Stockholm. And the declines are small and few, Södertälje, Gävle, and Västervik. So the reason for Jönköping to increase is a lot -- has a lot to do with the Elmia fair. The Custom Motor Show, especially ran over the Easter weekend, which obviously is a very good period to host a high-demand events. Also the Produktionsmässor, the Elmia Production Fairs, 6 parallel trade fairs that about manufacturing that ran 19th to 22nd of May. Piteå, the main driver here was the Piteå Summer Games. It's a large international youth sports tournament that was held in end of June. And the drop in Gävle, the reason here is the finals in Swedish ice hockey last year that is obviously difficult to replace as well as the Swedish championships in Boule. On top of this, the corporate demand in general is also slower in Gävle so far this year. Moving on to Norway. Same geographic view, but for Norway this time. Bodø hosted 3 UEFA Champion League games in Q1. Harstad/Narvik experienced especially strong Q1 due to the NATO exercise that was held in this area and also the Junior Alpine World Championships in March. The increase in Tromsø seems to have slowed down after several years of strong growth. Trondheim, the drop here is -- can almost only be explained in last year's World Ski Championships that was obviously not replaced this year. The Haugesund drop seemed to be mainly driven by less corporate demand from the shipping industry that is right now in a slow period as well the supply of hotel rooms has increased in Haugesund with 14%. Moving on to Denmark. Denmark year-to-date in total, 8%. Most of the markets are increasing here. Outside Copenhagen, the picture is pretty flat. Aalborg and Kolding, 3.8%. Aarhus, 3.4%. Odense, 0.2%. Vejle is the one declining at minus 1.3%. But also here, we have a lot of new supply coming into a pretty small market. So that has a high impact. Tórshavn in the Faroe Islands is the strongest city, increasing with 16.4% and was mainly positively affected by the UArctic Congress in May. So in Finland, all markets we cover in Finland are in growth this year so far. Finland is 2.3% year-to-date. Helsinki is 1/3 of the reported supply here at only 0.9% increase. So the capital region holds the national figure down actually. The growth is regional here. We see Vaasa increasing, Rovaniemi, Joensuu. Rovaniemi, the Arctic tourism, Santa Claus, bringing people still from all over the world to Rovaniemi. Also, a lot of increased direct flights this winter. Joensuu hosted a World Cup competition in biathlon, and that is obviously a huge impact for such a small market. And -- but what is really nice to see is that Finland markets in general looks really healthy right now. So last but not least, we will look into the future a little bit and the future bookings. This is a summary page, and the data here is as per 1st of October, and we look 365 days ahead. So here, we look into 2027 as well. And we compare with on the books same time last year. So I think we will move on into the cities' individual slides, and we start with Copenhagen here. The rooms on the books smoothened out by a rolling 7 days value. And the occupancy booked right now for the coming year is 20.2% and this is 11.8% higher compared to the same time last year. The ECCO Congress that was held in Stockholm 2026 is actually next year held in Copenhagen, and that can be seen already in the beginning of March here in the numbers. The orange dotted line show last year actual, indicating how much is still to be expected to be picked up. Moving to Stockholm. We have a pretty similar on the books compared to last year, but slightly down. But as we just mentioned about the ECCO Congress that is not coming back to Stockholm end of February, we can see that here in the last year numbers. EHA Congress could be seen at this time last year as well in the graph for June. Also the concerts that I was mentioning before, the Bad Bunny concerts in Strawberry Arena had already created demand at this time last year. And is not replaced really at the same time this year. In April, the ESCMID Congress can already be seen here, bringing bookings to Stockholm. But in total, Stockholm is 3.8% behind last year's on the books level right now. Moving on to Oslo. The Men's EHF Euro Handball Championships in January could be seen this time last year. However, a large part of the spring and the summer '27 is right now below last year. The occupancy on the books in Oslo is right now 18.8% for the coming year, and that is 8.9% below last year same time. Moving on to Helsinki, showing a strong on the books for the coming year, up by 22.4%. In November, we have 2 NHL Global Series Finland games. which is creating a lot of demand into Helsinki. Mid-June is probably positively affected by the international conference on philosophical practice that will take place in Helsinki. However, a general increase can be seen and out of the next 365 days, 273 of them has a higher booked occupancy compared to same time last year. And then let's go to the island of Iceland and Reykjavik. The book is ahead of last year on 230 of the 365 days. The widest lead over last year is summer 2027. The demand that occurred for the solar eclipse can also be seen here clearly in the numbers from last year. However, even without the solar eclipse in the books this year, Reykjavik show a positive trend in hotel bookings right now, plus 4.6% versus same time last year. Thank you very much. That was all for me.

Operator

Operator

I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Liia Nou

Operator

Thank you, Aoife, and thank you, Henrik, for your appreciated hotel market update. And thank you all for participating in this call. We really appreciate your time and interest in Pandox. Our year-end report for 2026 will be published on the 4th of February 2027. And finally, we would like to remind you of our Hotel Market Day on the 17th of November in Stockholm. We hope to see you there. Safe travels, and goodbye.