Tom Fitzgerald
Analyst · JP Morgan. Your line is open
Thanks, Chris. Good afternoon, everyone. As Chris mentioned, approximately 95% of our store base is now open with approximately 500 stores reopening during the third quarter. In terms of development, 29 new stores opened during Q3 compared to 41 new stores added in the year ago period. Our primary focus over the last several months has been on reopening stores and more recently re-launching our national marketing efforts and as previously communicated all development requirements have been given a 12-month extension. As you'll hear in a moment, the change in equipment sales to new and existing stores was the biggest driver of our top line decline. For the third quarter, total revenue was $105.4 million compared to $166.8 million in the prior year period. As a reminder, the vast majority of our stores drafted monthly membership dues back in March and then closed shortly thereafter. Therefore, those members that were drafted had a 30-day credit to utilize once their home store reopens. Q3 includes the recognition of $7.3 million in previously deferred revenue related to monthly membership dues collected in March before stores closed. This has broken down into $3.9 million from franchise royalty, $2.2 million from corporate own store monthly dues, and $1.2 million from NAF contributions. Now before I get into the specifics of same store sales, I'll spend a minute on our same store sales definition. When stores are closed and don't draft monthly membership dues or don't execute a full draft upon reopening, because members have credits to utilize from prior periods, they are not included in our comparable store base. But for some contexts, we reported 53 quarters of positive same store sales before COVID hit in March and shut down all of our stores. The average of our same store sales growth over those 53 quarters was 12.0% and average 9.6% for 2018 and 2019. Our model and historically strong same store sales results depend on the ability to continually grow net membership levels across our store base month-over-month and quarter-over-quarter. Additionally, in our recurring revenue model, our same store sales performance at any point in time is a function of what's happened to our membership levels over the trailing 12 months. When our stores shut down due to COVID, we were unable to grow net membership levels in our stores. And as Chris discussed, we've seen higher attrition in the first couple of months post the store reopening as the initial billing of monthly and annual membership dues results in elevated cancellations before starting to normalize after the third month. As we have moved farther away from our first monthly and annual billing event for many of our reopened stores, and resumed marketing our brand and our national sale in September, we saw sequential improvement in underlying joint and canceled trends as Q3 progressed. However, overall membership growth remains negative. And importantly for the same store sales calculation, the change in membership levels or growth rate was worse this year than in the prior year period. As a result of these dynamics, we have seen same store sales, growth slow and turn negative. Of the 1605 stores that had at least one full draft in Q3, 1416 of those stores were in the comp space. These stores had a same store sales decrease of 5.6% with franchise stores declining 5.6% and corporate stores down 6.6%. The 5.6% same store sales decrease was driven by a 6.7% decline in build memberships partially offset by 1.1% increase in average rate due to both higher black card penetration and higher black card pricing compared to the prior year period. Note, that although the monthly decline in membership levels improved sequentially in each month of Q3 because growth rates remained below that of the prior year period. This led to a worsening same store sales trend through the quarter. As such, our system wide same store sales growth worsens across the quarter, and was down high single digits in the month of September. As I previously mentioned, since our same store sales trends are based on what has happened to our membership levels over the prior 12 months. In order for same store sales growth to improve the growth and membership levels in our comp stores must exceed the member growth in the same period in the prior year. Moving on to a review of our segments revenue results, franchise segment revenue was $59.8 million compared to $66.7 million in the prior year period, a decrease of 10.4%. Let me break down the components. First, royalty revenue which consists of royalties on monthly membership dues and annual membership fees was $43.1 million compared to $46million in the same quarter of last year. The $43.1 million of revenue includes $6.1 million attributable to catch up billing of annual membership fees and $3.9 million of deferred revenue recognized from the March draft -- from stores that were closed in March as a result of COVID-19 and reopened during the quarter. The average royalty rate for the third quarter for the stores that drafted was 6.2% equal to the same period last year. Next, our franchise and other fees of $2.6 million compared to $3.2 million in the prior year period. These are fees received from online new member signups, the recognition of fees paid to us from franchise agreements, area development agreements and the transfer of existing stores and fees received from processing dues. The decrease was primarily driven by lower online join fees in the quarter and lower commission revenue. Also within the franchise revenue segment is our placement revenue which was $1.5 million in Q3 compared with $4.3 million a year ago. These are fees we receive for the assembly and placement of equipment sales to our franchise owned stores within the U.S. and Canada. The decrease reflects the lower new store and re-equipment placements we executed in the quarter compared with a year ago. I 'll discuss the number of new equipment placements later when I discuss equipment revenues. And finally, national advertising fund revenue was $12.5 million compared to $12.7 million last year. The NAF revenue in the current quarter includes $1.2 million have previously deferred NAF revenue that was collected in March but not recognized until Q3. The year-over-year decline reflects the impact of temporary store closures as NAF is not collected unless stores are open and draft monthly dues and that was partially offset by higher NAF contribution rate of 3.25% that beginning in September and will run through the remainder of 2020. Our corporate store segment revenue was $28.3 million compared to $40.7 million in the prior year period. The $12.5 million decrease was driven by lower membership fees due to the closure of many of our corporate stores for a portion of that period. The $28.3 million includes $2.2 million of previously deferred revenue recognized from the March draft from stores that were closed in March as a result of COVID-19 and reopened in Q3. Turning to our equipment segment, Revenue decreased $42million or 70.8% to $17.3 million from $59.4 million. The decrease was driven by both lower new store equipment I mentioned earlier in the call, along with lower replacement equipment sales to existing franchisee owned stores. Replacement equipment sales in Q3 were $2.7 million compared to $42.5 million in Q3 last year. In the third quarter, we had 28 new store equipment placements, which was down 18 from the prior year period. Beginning in Q2 we launched a 15% discount offer on all equipment orders to support our new store development and replacement orders. This offer applies to all equipment purchased and placed by the end of 2020. Our cost of revenue, which primarily relates to direct cost of equipment sales to new and existing franchise owned stores amounted to $15.3 million compared to $46.2 million a year ago, a decrease of 66.9% in line with the revenue decrease as previously discussed. Store operation expenses which are associated with our corporate owned stores decreased to $21.4 million compared to $22.3 million a year ago. The slight decrease was primarily driven by cost saving measures due to store closures, including lower payroll, marketing and operating expenses partially offset by higher occupancy expense associated with 9 new stores opened and 12 stores acquired since the end of the third quarter of last year. SG&A for the quarter was $18.3 million compared to $20.9 million a year ago. The decrease was primarily driven by reductions in variable compensation, decreased travel and lower equipment placement expenses. National advertising fund expense was $20.2 million compared to $12.7 million in the prior year period. The increase in expense for the quarter was the result of overall higher full year forecasted NAF expenses, which resulted in an adjustment in Q3 to reflect the proper ratable year-to-date expense. Adjusted EBITDA which is defined as net income before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted for the impact of certain non-cash, and other items that are not considered in the evaluation of ongoing operating performance was $32.0 million compared to $65.7 million in the prior year period. Included in this quarter’s adjusted EBITDA was approximately $7.3 million related to the recognition of deferred revenue previously discussed. A reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to GAAP net income or loss can be found in the earnings release. By segment, franchise adjusted EBITDA was $31.6 million, corporate storage adjusted EBITDA was $6.7 million and equipment adjusted EBITDA was 2.3 million. Adjusted net income was $1.6 million and adjusted net income per diluted share was $0.02 a share, a decrease of $0.34 per diluted share. One last point on the P&L, before I talk about the balance sheet, as Chris mentioned, we resumed our national marketing efforts in September with our national sale, our first step towards expanding membership since before the pandemic hits. The results were very encouraging. And we decided to make an incremental investment in national advertising of $10 million from October through December. As a result of this incremental investment in NAF and the projected NAF revenues for the year, on a full year basis, NAF will be a net expense to our P&L. However, we believe that the incremental advertising investment was the right long-term decision for the business, given the encouraging results of our September sale and the competitive dislocation occurring within our industry. Now let me turn to the balance sheet, as of September 30, 2020, we had $501.6 million in total cash, with cash and cash equivalents of $419.7 million, compared to $423.6 million on June 30, 2020. In addition, we ended the quarter with $81.9 million of restricted cash compared to $86.4 million at the end of Q2. Based on the current situation, and our focus on preserving liquidity, we announced in March that we were halting all share repurchase activity for the time being. We also took additional measures to reduce our monthly cash burn, including previously announced compensation reductions for our leadership team, and our Board of Directors and during Q3, we made the decision to right size, our headquarters and field teams in an effort to refocus on our core priority of maintaining and growing our membership base. Total long-term debt excluding deferred financing costs was $1.80 billion as of September 30, 2020, consisting of our three top tranches of securitized debt, and $75 million of variable funding. Our securitized debt structure is covenant light, we have two maintenance covenants, a debt service coverage ratio and a total system wide sales threshold. Both are tested quarterly, they're calculated on a trailing 12-month basis, and reported roughly on a two month lag. In our most recent debt covenant reporting period of September 8, 2020, we had a 56% and a 108% cushion to the first triggering event for our debt service coverage ratio, and system wide sales covenant respectively. Similar to our liquidity position, we believe we have sufficient headroom for our two maintenance covenants. Given an uncertainty surrounding the evolving nature of the pandemic, we are continuing to refrain from providing guidance. While the near-term is difficult to predict, we believe that we are well positioned financially and strategically compared to the rest of the industry to capitalize on the many value creating opportunities we believe will emerge over the long-term as a result of the pandemic. I'll now turn the call back to the operator for questions.