Dorvin Lively
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open
I would say, John, that in 2018 and even this year, and probably 2017. The size of box really hasn’t changed a lot, I mean, you think about it we’re opening, call it the last three years, 200 plus counting this year. It’s going to be right between probably 19,500 and 20,000 square feet. Now there’s a few you know little outliers for that, because happened to be a box in a certain place you want to put it in it was 16,500 or something like that. You heard us talk about the store we built, corporate store in Berlin, Vermont. It’s about 15,500 in a very small town up there. We opened a small store down in a small town in Texas of just shy of 8,000 square feet last year. But that’s a big outlier. So the far majority of all the stores 2017, 2018, 2019 a right around 20,000, and we have some over that, so that helps in terms of the average. But far majority bread and butter right down the fairways 20,000. What I was trying to allude to the question earlier, at least, the way I thought the question was being asked was as we get more and more penetration into markets, and open more and more stores. And then as franchisees start to kind of look towards the fringes, let’s say, of their career [ph] development agreements or in just frankly more rural states, maybe how it can small be and then will they build them and get a return on it. And that’s where I was alluding to us looking at anywhere from say 10,000 to 15,000 square feet. If it’s a small enough market then we’re looking at that and saying then that drive the return. And I think affirmatively, I said, yes. Clearly, there’s no doubt that the far majority of all of our franchisees, if there’s enough people there, they’re going to put that 20,000 square foot box, because it can and we’ve said this before, I mean, it can handle anywhere from call it 5,500 to 6,000 members and maybe a more cheaper real estate environment in some markets all the way up to 12,000 to 15,000 members in some markets too. And we believe that brand and the size of the box, and the usage patterns of our members can handle that. But if it’s in markets, where we have not saturated the market with the maximum number of stores, it’s most likely going to be a 20,000 square foot box. Even in markets, John, where we want to box and there’s enough people and there’s no real estate, we’re building some, I’d say, we on the system. We’re doing some ground ups and we’re done 20,000 square foot, because we think that’s the right profile that gives us the best perception from a customer, the best layout, the right mix of equipment et cetera. And then, when you get out to that fringes, okay, it’s just a small town. And maybe it can’t drive the same type of membership to drive the economics. I think the way that most people are looking at this is, if they can get that on the low-end 20% kind of cash and cash returns, they’re willing to do it, and clearly anything about that they’re willing to do it. And so far, we haven’t had that kind of a problem of trying to struggle to get to that 20% cash on cash returns.