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The Children's Place, Inc. (PLCE)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, May 18, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to The Children’s Place First Quarter 2017 Conference Call. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. At this time, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Bob Vill, Group Vice President, Finance.

Bob Vill

Analyst

Thank you for joining us this morning. With me here today are Jane Elfers, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mike Scarpa, Chief Operating Officer; and Anurup Pruthi, Chief Financial Officer. A copy of our press release can be found on our Web site. Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that any forward-looking statements made today are subject to the Safe Harbor statement found in this morning’s release as well as in the company’s SEC filings. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly release any revision to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof. In addition, to find disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures that we use when discussing our financial results, you should refer to this morning’s earnings release and to our SEC filings that can be found on our Investor Relations site. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call to questions. We ask that each of you limit yourself to one question so that everyone will have an opportunity. I will now turn the call over to Jane Elfers.

Jane Elfers

Analyst

Thank you, Bob, and good morning, everybody. We continued to deliver outstanding operating results in the first quarter. We delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $1.95, a 48% increase versus last year and $0.32 above the high end of our guidance. Comparable retail sales, operating margins and earnings per share were significantly above both last year and the high end of our guidance range. We ended the quarter with a positive 6.1% comp, our highest Q1 comp in over a decade on top of a positive 5.1% comp in Q1 of last year. Further separating us from the pack, we generated positive comps in our brick and mortar channel for the sixth consecutive quarter and our traffic continued to improve sequentially from Q4. Our inventories are in great shape as we enter Q2, up 2.8%. Before I move on to strategy, I want to briefly comment on some outside reporting that has become a common place in our sector. I am referring to credit card data and other one-off reporting. For example, we received calls from several of our analysts on April 18 regarding the report that was issued from M Science, a firm we had never heard of. M Science reported that we were in jeopardy of missing our consensus net sales and comp for the quarter as they estimated we would only deliver 416 million in net sales and a flat to 1% comp. As you saw this morning, we delivered 437 million in net sales and a 6.1% comp just 12 days later when the quarter ended. We wonder if the M stands for Mistaken. Moving on to strategy. We continued to make significant progress on our key strategic growth initiatives; superior product, business transformation through technology, alternative channels of distribution and fleet optimization. As we look to…

Mike Scarpa

Analyst

Thank you, Jane. This morning I will provide an update on our other strategic pillars; inventory management, alternate channels of distribution and fleet optimization. Inventory management. As you know, we launched our inventory management tools for the back-to-school 2015 season. We continue to see improved results from these systems as we refine our learnings. The first tool we implemented was our assortment planning tool. This tool has enabled us to continue to increase sell-through rates and drive down receipt units. We are projecting receipt units in the second half of 2017 to be down mid-single digits compared to last year. As we further refined our usage of this tool, we identify the significant opportunity to align the timing of unit flows into our DC more closely with store needs. In the holiday 2017 buy, we’ve reduced the penetration of our initial flow of fashion receipts by 12% versus last year. Allocation and replenishment. We continue to refine the science and algorithms of this tool which has contributed to enhancing our inventory productivity. We are further working to revise the analytics to normalize demand for stores with gross margin rates that fall below targeted levels. This will improve the quality of the underlying demand and will direct inventory to the most profitable sales opportunity. Tiering. We continue to use store tiers as a lever to further de-risk our inventory. Tiering allows us to be more proactive around GMROI in our lower volume stores by reducing assortment breadth in overall inventory levels while still producing sales and gross margin expansion. For holiday 2017, the combination of tiering and our APT tool has reduced the number of all door SKUs to 52% of the assortment from 59% last year, representing our efforts to vary assortments by tier and optimize profitability. Size and pack.…

Anurup Pruthi

Analyst

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, we delivered adjusted EPS of $1.95 compared to $1.32 last year and a high end of our guidance of $1.63, a $0.32 beat versus the high end of our guidance. The $1.95 in adjusted EPS included a $0.19 tax benefit while our high end guidance of $1.63 assumed only a $0.08 tax benefit resulting in $0.11 of incremental tax benefit from the new accounting rules due a higher share price. The balance of the $0.32 beat or $0.21 was due to our strong operating performance. Details for the first quarter are as follows. Net sales increased 4.1% to $437 million. Comparable retail sales increased 6.1%, our highest first quarter comp in over a decade on top of a positive 5.1% comp in the first quarter of 2016. We generated a positive comp in our brick and mortar channel for the sixth consecutive quarter and we continued to see a significant increase in the penetration of our ecommerce sales. U.S. comp sales increased 6.8%. Canada comp sales decreased 1.4%. Our merchandize margin rate increased for the ninth consecutive quarter. Adjusted gross margin for the quarter deleveraged 20 basis points versus last year to 39.2%. The penetration of our ecommerce business increased significantly in the quarter, which drove a higher comp, operating profit, operating margin rate and earnings per share. However, this penetration resulted in a slightly lower adjusted gross margin rate compared to last year. Adjusted SG&A leveraged 160 basis points compared to last year to 24.5%. The leverage was primarily due to decreased store expenses and lower credit card fees and the positive impact of the strong comparable sales. Depreciation was $15.7 million for the quarter. Adjusted operating income was 48.4 million leveraging 170 basis points to 11.1% of net…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Jay Sole with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Jay Sole

Analyst

Hi. Can you hear me?

Jane Elfers

Analyst

Yes, we hear you, Jay.

Jay Sole

Analyst

Hi. Sorry. So my question is, Jane, on the new hire. Bringing someone into such a senior level to be at a global role, does that – what does it say about what’s changed over the last quarter about what you see is the potential for the brand on a global basis? I know there’s a lot of data points given about the number of points of distribution internationally. But as you see it going forward both on a wholesale and retail basis, can you just tell us what’s changed over the last three months?

Jane Elfers

Analyst

Yes, I think when you look back and when Jennifer Groves, our Head of Design made the decision to join The Children’s Place, I made the decision to take on the Chief Merchant role. And the reason I did that is because I was pretty sure that the combination of Jen and myself would be an unbeatable one. And I think when you look at how strong our comps have been over the last couple of years, I think I can confidently say that I made the right decision. However, when the opportunity to bring Pam on came up, that is an outstanding coup for The Children’s Place. Pam is an extremely strong childrenswear executive with an outstanding track record. Pam worked with Jen when Pam was the President of Gap Kids & Baby; Jen was the Head of Design for Gap Kids & Baby. And in my opinion, those two were the ones who put Gap Kids & Baby on the map. When you look at the rest of Pam’s background, she’s been successful at several large kids companies. She’s been at Disney, she’s been at Babies “R” Us and Kids “R” Us and like I said where she was President of Gap Kids & Baby. The other thing about Pam; not only has she worked with Jen, she’s worked with most of our design team. She has worked with directly several members of our senior leadership team and a lot of our key operational executives. For instance, she’s known Mike for years. She knows our Head of HR. She knows our Head of Stores. So it’s going to be somewhat of a homecoming around here with Pam coming on and I think also hitting the ground running from day one. We couldn’t be more excited to get someone with Pam’s pedigree. And the timing is right for me to move off of the Chief Merchant role and to move on to customer personalization. We see customer personalization as a starting point of a $200 million opportunity. And as far as timing, we’re targeting having this initiative fully up and running by the end of fiscal '18, so we can realize the full benefit in 2019. And now that we have Pam onboard, I’m going to move and put the same focus on customer personalization that I did on merchandizing.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Albert with Bank of America.

Stephen Albert

Analyst · Bank of America.

Good morning. I wanted to touch upon the gross margin line a little bit. I guess could you parse out what the merchandize margin expansion trajectory looked like versus prior quarters? I guess the optics obviously saw a little bit of decel on that line. Is it mostly just pressure from the shift to ecommerce and incremental shipping expense and you get the flow through on the SG&A line?

Anurup Pruthi

Analyst · Bank of America.

Yes, Steve, it’s Anurup. I think we obviously saw outsized penetration of ecomm sales as a percentage of our total retail sales in the quarter. However, I think as you’ve mentioned in your question, we leveraged operating margin, and I will draw your focus there first, by 170 basis points versus last year, up about 450 basis points versus just two years ago. So ecomm penetration drives the overall comp, it drives the overall operating margin, it drives the overall operating rate and ultimately EPS. So from our perspective, ecomm is a very profitable model, a high basket size, low return rate, outstanding value proposition to mom, continue to make this a very, very – very much a core part of our operating model going forward. Jane spent a lot of time this morning explaining in detail the significance of our personalized customer contact strategy. As I mentioned, it’s very profitable. It drives a big share of the overall comp and overall operating model going forward. So as ecomm from a penetration perspective if it continues to outperform and outsize as a percentage of total retail, there might be a geography shift in our P&L. So you might see slightly lower rate of gross margin expansion but you would see lower SG&A as a result of ecomm penetration. So from an overall perspective, I think we are very, very pleased with our progress not just in ecomm but in the total business. And also to mention that we’ve had now six quarters of brick and mortar comp increases just another testament to the successful execution of the all-round strategy.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Susan Anderson with FBR Capital Markets.

Susan Anderson

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets.

Very nice quarter. I was wondering if maybe you could talk about the decreased store expenses in the quarter that really helps SG&A, is this mainly the lower rent that you guys are talking about or are there other things that you’re becoming more efficient within the stores. And then just really quick on the new customer contact strategy, it sounds like you’re going to be working with some external partners on this. So I was just curious, are these consultants that will help you implement new digital technology or how should we think about this? Thank you.

Anurup Pruthi

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets.

Susan, I’ll take the expense piece first. I think as you’ve seen from an overall SG&A perspective, we leveraged 160 basis points for the quarter. Most of this is primarily driven from a dollar’s perspective by reduction in store expenses and our credit card fees. As we mentioned in prior calls, we re-launched our private label credit card program in Q4 last year and it’s off to a really successful start; penetration of private label credit card fees somewhere in the neighborhood of a 400 basis point increase in penetration that helps drive those credit card fees down. And in addition, our store team continues to do an outstanding job in controlling the controlables. The culture at TCP continues to drive initiatives around the expense efficiency. And also to mention that the very, very strong comp also drove a significant part of the overall SG&A leverage in the quarter. As we look forward, I think it would be fair to say that you could expect SG&A strong management to be very much part of sort of what we do here while we continue to invest in all of our transformation initiatives.

Mike Scarpa

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets.

And on the second part, while we continue to build our own in-house expertise in systems and in marketing obviously as we’ve done with this whole transformation as to bring in the right partners from an outside perspective to help and guide us through these very technical programs and transformation, so no different in the digital world.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adrienne Yih with Wolfe Research.

Adrienne Yih

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Good morning. I have to congratulate you on just stellar performance in what is just such – historically such a tough environment, so the whole team congrats.

Jane Elfers

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Thanks, Adrienne.

Adrienne Yih

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

You’re welcome. Jane, I want to get deeper into kind of the investments that you’re making. Can you talk about the amount of sort of data or history that you have on your millennial shopper? What type of data you’re using and how that kind of results in this loyalty of lifetime value of the customer? And then Mike or Anurup, can you actually give us the penetration of ecomm? Is it closer to 20% or 25%? Where should that go over time? And I want to make sure that we’re modeling the gross margin impact correctly. Can you give us any color on the differential – the basis point differential gross margin ecomm to brick and mortar? Thank you very much.

Jane Elfers

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Sure. Well, I’ll try to take the first part of it. We have a huge runway ahead of us with respect to our digital transformation and our personalized customer contact. And I think we can start with our basic belief is that digital technology as a core competency is what’s going to separate the long-term winners. So as I said in my prepared remarks, we’ve got a retailer’s dream as our core customer. She’s the millennial mobile mom and she’s like I said a digital native. On top of having her as our core customer, we also have the luxury of having a pipeline into our future Gen Z customer which also gives us a natural advantage when it comes to technology as we look ahead. So we’re at the beginning stages of the digital transformation. As I said, we see this as a $200 million opportunity as the starting point. And moving my focus over there with Pam’s arrival, I really think we can get this up and running by the end of '18, so we can realize the full benefit of '19. And when you think about it, we think about it in four buckets. So let me just kind of highlight those four buckets for you and each one of the buckets has substantial incremental sales and profitability associated with it. The first one is really the digital platform. So we’re looking for a modern robust digital platform so we can engage with our core customer, that millennial mobile mom. And so we’ve got rollout scheduled this year that includes like foundational features and functionality like optimized checkouts, search, access to account, rewards, streamline sign-up for our private label credit card and our My Place Rewards program and starting on more improved product recommendations. As I mentioned…

Anurup Pruthi

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Adrienne, on the question around ecomm and margins, I would just say that ecomm and the growth of ecomm is very much part of our strategic operating margin expansion plan. It grew to almost 20% of total retail sales in 2016. We very much look at the business as a consolidated, especially after everything Jane articulated about where our customer is and how much of a roadmap we have ahead of us in terms of digital convergence. So we very much look at this as an omni, a business between ecomm and brick and mortar. But if you look at our guidance today of 9.3% operating margin versus 5.6% in 2014, that very much incorporates the journey of ecomm penetration. As I mentioned before, our ecomm business is a very profitable business for us. We offer an outstanding value proposition to mom. And also – I would just also go back to the fact that we had launched our fleet optimization program many years ago with the full intent and foresight of seeing digital convergence and that also helps in terms of managing and driving profitability in the future. And finally, we also see huge potential in our omni business because it’s roughly 25% of our customer base and 42% of our sales. So some of our most profitable customers are omni customers and that’s why we’re really excited about what everything Jane articulated today.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kelly Halsor with Buckingham.

Kelly Halsor

Analyst · Buckingham.

Jane, I was just wondering if we get into a little bit of the competition of your store base, could you just remind us of how many of your stores are off-mall? And then on that same topic, just an update on the discussions you’re having with your landlords given the environment, has that – any of those conversations evolved particularly with the brick and mortar traffic certainly remaining pretty challenging here? And then just secondly, I just have a housekeeping. Based on my math at least it looks like the 53rd week would be about an incremental 20 million or so in sales in the fourth quarter and I was just wondering if there is any sort of profitability implications if you could just shed some light on that please? Thanks.

Mike Scarpa

Analyst · Buckingham.

Kelly, from a real estate portfolio perspective, we have about 60 – a little over 60% of our stores in malls; roughly about 13% are outlets and the remaining call it 25 to 27 are basically in Lifestyle Strip centers. As we go through our fleet optimization program, obviously we’ve seen really good results from it. We’ve closed almost a little over 150 doors at this point in time with 150 to go. We’ve reduced our square footage by 0.5 million square feet so far in this program. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, some of the key success factors to drive this 200 basis point operating margin expansion is successful renegotiations that we’re having with the landlord community. So obviously they’re feeling pressure. As we look at our program, obviously our competitors are under some pressure. There’s some financial stability issues with some of them. So the landlord community has been very receptive in terms of what we’ve been able to do.

Anurup Pruthi

Analyst · Buckingham.

Kelly, as far as the 53rd week goes, it’s really no material impact from an EPS perspective. It’s a small week in terms of overall volume. We don’t really go into more specifics than that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research.

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst · JJK Research.

Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on a wonderful quarter. A couple of questions. The gross margin guidance for the second quarter has also increased year-over-year and given that deleverage due to the ecomm penetration, I’m just wondering what factors would change between 1Q and 2Q there? Also, Jane, if you could talk a little bit about AUR opportunity? I know that some of the basic programs had enjoyed nice – it looked like improvement in AUR year-over-year in the first quarter, but maybe you could discuss the opportunity there? And lastly, just on Canada, it seems like it’s getting better from the fourth quarter to the first quarter. Is that just isolated to certain markets undergoing some economic turbulence? Thank you.

Anurup Pruthi

Analyst · JJK Research.

Janet, on Canada, I’ll take the last piece first. Canada was up against some very, very strong comps from last year, but overall I will say we’re very pleased with the progress and profitability in that market. It remains very stable for us. Our teams do an outstanding job in terms of store execution and I think we’re just pretty pleased with continuing to solidify our share up in Canada. As far as second quarter guidance goes, we are guiding gross margin flat to a leverage of 20 basis points. This does include in this guidance very good growth in ecommerce. What we did point out to in Q1 is we obviously had a very outsized performance in ecomm, which again might result in a lower gross margin rate. But at the end of the day, the most important metric is it continues and will continue to drive operating margin. So we have factored ecommerce penetration gross into our Q2. We do forecast merchandize margin to increase for the 10th consecutive quarter in the second quarter. The inventory management tools, extremely strong and continued product acceptance and AUR increase are part of what we’ve guided to in Q2 as well.

Mike Scarpa

Analyst · JJK Research.

Janet, just to point out. Obviously Q2 is basically – last year, it was a breakeven quarter for us and we’re projecting about the same to a little better than that. It is the lowest sales volume for us on a quarterly basis during the year. So not a lot of leverage that we can put on the fixed expenses that the company has.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Marni Shapiro with The Retail Tracker.

Marni Shapiro

Analyst · The Retail Tracker.

Hi, guys. Congratulations on the quarter, on Pam, on the assortment.

Jane Elfers

Analyst · The Retail Tracker.

Thank you.

Marni Shapiro

Analyst · The Retail Tracker.

I’m kind of curious a little bit about Amazon. The product that you are selling to them, is it designed separately from what you’re doing? Because it looks like the fashion product is different than what you have on your site. And then the follow up to that is, if it’s all made for Amazon if they cancel something or doesn’t sell, how does that process work on the backend as you grow this business? I’m guessing until now, it hasn’t been a problem. But as you grow the business, what’s the exit on I guess excess inventory or cancelled inventory or any of that?

Jane Elfers

Analyst · The Retail Tracker.

Marni, it is the same product. We don’t do “exclusives” per se. We have a big replenishment program with Amazon that we’ve discussed on a couple of calls. But what you may be seeing is that the product that they do buy, a lot of times what they do is bundle it. So they’ll do things like set two-pack, three-pack, five-pack, six-pack, so it may appear different than our assortment would look online. But that’s probably what you’re seeing there.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anna Andreeva with Oppenheimer.

Anna Andreeva

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

Great. Thanks so much. Good morning. And let me add my congrats as well.

Jane Elfers

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

Thank you.

Anna Andreeva

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

I guess a couple of questions. Was hoping you guys could talk about what kind of trends you saw in the outlet channel and if there was any variability in performance across the A, the B and the C malls? And secondly, May sounds choppy for the industry I think thus far. Maybe talk about the trends you’re seeing so far this month? And I guess within that, Jane, maybe the latest thoughts on the competitive set, maybe remind us your overlap with the Jamboree banners? Thanks.

Jane Elfers

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

Sure. On the outlet one, we don’t really comment on that. We don’t break it out. But I will tell you that the traffic in outlet is worse than the traffic in the Place stores, so that is lagging and did lag a bit in Q1. As far as trends, we don’t like to talk about them in the mid-quarter. I will tell you we are positive in comping but I don’t want to get too ahead of myself, because we’re only two weeks into the quarter. And then as far as the promotional environment is concerned, I think just in general on a macro level, I think all signs we could fairly say are going to point to an increased promotional activity in Q2. We’ve heard all the same negative Q1 reports and future outlooks that you’ve heard over the last couple of weeks, which usually leads to heightened inventory levels and higher levels of promotions going forward. I think when you look at us, six consecutive quarters of positive comps, six consecutive quarters of positive brick and mortar comps which really makes us an outlier and nine consecutive quarters of merchandize margin improvement. So I think we’re in a strong position with respect to product acceptance and inventory management even in the midst of negative brick and mortar traffic trend. When you look at our promotions from Q1, they were orderly, they were well planned. Anurup covered it with the penetration of ecommerce but I think as we mentioned on the last call, we continue to see some of our mall-based kids competition experiencing chronic product issues and heightened promotional activity. With regard to the Jamboree situation, we’re certainly monitoring that closely. Obviously, we’ve heard the same reports you had heard and the potential for a major Jamboree crazy liquidation beginning in the second quarter, our inventories are obviously positioned very well ending the quarter and we’re ready to compete should the need arise.

Mike Scarpa

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

From an overall overlap, we’ve identified about 800 locations we’re co-located. We look back at some of their closures in malls where we also had a presence in 2014, there was roughly a dozen or so closures where there was an overlap. And good news there is we saw anywhere from a 10% to 15% sale lift where we’re co-located in that mall. So as we look at the average volume, it was close to $150,000. So there’s been a lot of numbers bandied about in the press on potential closures and we’re watching it closely and obviously this could be a big opportunity for us.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

Dana Telsey

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group.

Hi, everyone. Good morning and congratulations. So very exciting about the hiring of Pam Wallack. How do you look at her impact on elevating the assortment or any adjustments that you’re looking at, Jane, in order to continue to enhance the products with her on board? Thank you.

Jane Elfers

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group.

Thanks, Dana. As I said, she is one of the most talented childrenswear executives in the country and she knows Jennifer very well having worked with her for many years and she knows most of our design team. So I think having Pam 100% focused on product not only from a design aspect but merchandizing and sourcing and production. She also has, which I hadn’t mentioned, an extremely deep sourcing and production background which is not my background. My background’s much more in merchandizing. So I think the combination of her deep background in merchandizing, overseeing design and understanding sourcing and production inside and out is really going to help bring us to the next level. I think that her 360 degree view of product, working directly with those teams and being able to spend 100% of her time on that, we’re certainly going to surface new opportunities and continue to finesse and fine-tune our product. I think as I had said earlier on another question, I think our product is in a great place. I think we’ve shown consistent results but certainly the ability with her onboard now to take it to a whole new level is what’s so exciting about this announcement this morning.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from the line of Kate McShane with Citi Research.

Kate McShane

Analyst

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. With regards to the personalized customer strategy, I just wondered if there was an incremental cost for pursuing this. And of the three teams, where do you think there is the most opportunity from the work that you’ve done so far?

Jane Elfers

Analyst

I’ll leave the cost to Anurup, but I will tell you on the three teams, there’s not one that’s more important than the next. They all need to work seamlessly together in order to deliver. So from the insights, you get the segmentation and the analytics work which provides you with the data point in order to then move to the customer strategy and the customer strategy includes things like trigger-based emails, personalized recommendations, things like that. But then you need the digital delivery team in order to deliver that to your customer. So they really all need to work in conjunction to deliver the personalized customer contact strategy.

Anurup Pruthi

Analyst

And on the cost piece, as I mentioned a little earlier in my prepared remarks, we are reinvesting about $0.10 of our operating outperformance in Q1 into the balance of the year in order to accelerate some of this transformation. And in addition to that, as you’ve seen over the last couple of years, we’ve taken about $60 million out of our overall SG&A base. We continue to drive efficiencies in our store base, from a fleet optimization perspective, new levers that we have recently are of such successful programs such as our private label credit card program. So we will continue at The Children’s Place continue to drive SG&A while we invest in the future and the digital roadmap as well.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. I will turn it back to the presenters for closing or additional comments.

Bob Vill

Analyst

Thank you for joining us today. Any questions, you can call me. This is Bob Vill at 201-453-6693. Thanks, everybody, and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.