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Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH)

Q2 2022 Earnings Call· Sun, Aug 7, 2022

$29.46

+9.76%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to the Park-Ohio Second Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] After the presentation, the Company will conduct a question-and-answer session. Today's conference is also being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Before we get started, I want to remind everyone that certain statements made on today's call may be forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. A list of relevant risks and uncertainties may be found in the earnings press release as well as in the company's 2021 10-K, which was filed on March 16, 2022, with the SEC. Additionally, the company may discuss adjusted EPS and EBITDA as defined. Adjusted EPS and EBITDA as defined are not measures of performance under generally accepted accounting principles. For a reconciliation of EPS to adjusted EPS and for a reconciliation of net income attributable to Park-Ohio common shareholders to EBITDA as defined, please refer to the company's recent earnings release. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO. Please proceed, Mr. Crawford.

Matthew Crawford

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2022 call today. As I mentioned in our press release last night, we're pleased with the revenue acceleration across the business. The broad nature of this growth and the contribution of new business as well as the resurgence in markets that have been struggling until recently, most notably rail, aerospace, oil and gas, which all showed improved results bodes well for the balance of the year. Zooming out a bit, we see 2 additional positive signs on the horizon. First, we believe that most of our end markets will benefit from an improving supply chain environment over the next year or so as our customers seek to restock their inventories. We do not believe a deep recession is a base case for our end markets at this time. But regardless, any reduction in demand caused by the Fed tightening cycle should be offset by the restocking demand at some level. Secondly, we are watching with the close eye of the federal government's legislation which targets businesses and infrastructure investments. While it's too early to foretell all the specifics, we may benefit in a variety of ways. A few include: first, increased investment in semiconductor production will benefit directly a number of our supply technology customers. Second, green energy and particularly electric cars, wind turbine energy and the de-carbonization of the industrial sector will also benefit most significantly our ACG and our Engineered Components segment. And three, broad investments in infrastructure related to rail, roads, bridges and grid will touch a wide portion of our business. Despite this revenue momentum, earnings fell short of our consolidated expectations. Inflation, logistics and labor challenges continue to be every day to be in every day and continuing challenge for the business. Supply Technologies, whose…

Patrick Fogarty

Analyst

Thank you, Matt. Before I review our second quarter results, I want to discuss the 2 strategic acquisitions for our Supply Technologies segment, which were completed subsequent to June 30. The first acquisition of Southern Fasteners based in North Carolina which supplies commercial fasteners and industrial supplies throughout the United States. Southern specializes in the design of customized inventory management programs for its customers in several end markets. Southern is a great complement to our Supply Technologies business and will accelerate our industrial supply growth initiative, which is centered around delivering MRO products to our OEM customer base. The second acquisition is Charter Automotive, which is strategic to our fastener manufacturing business and its location in China. Charter is a manufacturer of auto components and will help accelerate the global growth of our proprietary [indiscernible] technology to our U.S. OEM customer base in China and the growth of electric vehicle production throughout the region. The combined revenues of these acquisitions are approximately $40 million annually, and both will be immediately accretive to our operating margins and earnings per share. The combined purchase price is approximately $30 million and includes deferred payments that will be paid over 2 years. Now to our results for the quarter. Our second quarter results were highlighted by solid performance in both our Supply Technologies and Engineered Products segments driven by strengthening end market demand, strong capital equipment and aftermarket backlogs, increased product pricing and implemented operational improvements. For the second quarter in a row, we achieved record revenue levels in Supply Technologies and revenues in Engineered Products were at their highest level since the first quarter of 2020. Despite the positive results in Supply Technologies and Engineered Products, our results in our Assembly Components segment were negatively affected by restructuring charges during the quarter and…

Matthew Crawford

Analyst

Great. Thank you, Pat. As you can see, we're excited about the short-term and long-term trends around revenue. Our earnings have been playing a little catch up to that, but we like the trajectory and expect enhanced performance in the second half and some of the actions we've already taken start to yield some benefit. With that, we'll ask for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger

Analyst

Matt, you brought up restocking in your prepared remarks. How real or maybe better said, how broad do you think the restocking trend is based on what your customers are saying about what they need for parts over the next 6 to 12 months?

Matthew Crawford

Analyst

Great. Steve, yes. No, I think that we're beginning to see some broader news cycle on that issue. So broadly, I think that certainly, we've seen a pretty well documented discussion in the auto industry regarding what they expect in terms of restocking. So I think that, that one is fairly well documented and understood. I think around the rest of the business, I think we continue to see very strong expectations from our customers in terms of their build rates going out through the rest of the year and even into early next year. Some of that, of course, is based on continuing expectations around demand, but some of that is also related. Some of our key customers, you don't have to do much besides drive by a dealer a lot to notice that their lots are empty. So whether it be specific information from customer build rates, looking out through the rest of the year, anecdotal evidence we see relative to inventories they're holding in auto and other industries. I think we feel pretty confident that they're anxious to get some more product on their shelves, so to speak.

Steve Barger

Analyst

That's great. And it's really good to see a step up in Engineered Products margin. I know a lot of heavy industries you serve have big backlogs like railcar and aerospace. For the casting side specifically, since you consolidated that, how much operating leverage is in that business or what does incremental margin look like as production picks up there?

Matthew Crawford

Analyst

Yes. I'd comment first, we do appreciate some of the traction in the equipment business in the Engineered Products group I know that's not where your question went, but that has traditionally been our highest margin segment. Those who are may be new to the company haven't seen that level of performance. We have put a tremendous amount of effort into restructuring there. It is not complete, but we're beginning to see the benefits of it. So I think that we're quite excited, I think, between the restructuring and the backlogs, we anticipate that to return to a margin leadership position. It's also an area where we have tremendous brand loyalty around our aftermarket services. That's one of the highest margin profile businesses the throughout Park-Ohio. So no, I'm not surprised to see that take a leadership position. Clearly, that's been the business most affected by rail and aerospace and oil and gas seeing some stabilization there will benefit it as well. So that is not a surprise to us, albeit we've been anxious to see it. We expect that to continue to show traction, not just this year but going into next year as well. So yes, in terms of that. In terms of general aluminum, Pat, do you want to take on the incremental operating leverage question.

Patrick Fogarty

Analyst

Sure. Steve, I'd expect our flow-through from all the restructuring that we've done to impact the business and put our operating income margins back to historic levels. Now we don't expect to see that throughout the course of this year as the restructuring is being finalized. But as we move into next year, we would expect margins to get back to where they've been in the past. The pricing on raw material affected this business more than any other segment of our business. We expected that. We're starting to see aluminum prices begin to come down and hopefully stabilize as we enter into 2023, which will be positive for this business. We've been able to negotiate price increases. That effort is never done. We continue to work with our customers to improve pricing, not only on the aluminum casting side, but also on the fuel and the rubber products side. This process takes a lot longer than any of us would like, but we're working through with each customer, improved pricing so we can get to the returns that we expect in this business, which is north of 8%. -- and that would get us back to historic levels.

Steve Barger

Analyst

Yes. Matt, I know my question probably threw you off your game because I asked about Engineered Products and then I said casting. I actually met forgings as you've consolidated crop into Canada Drop Forge.

Matthew Crawford

Analyst

Yes. Sorry. You had me going to different direct. That's why I asked Pat to answer it. Forgings, we've made a significant investment in that consolidation. And listen, there's a learning curve. I think that the can and Drop Forge people are a center of excellence in these large forgings. That doesn't mean there's not going to be some learning relative to some of the parts we've transferred from Chicago down to Canton. So I think that investment is beginning to pay off, but we won't be in the meat, I think, of that return until probably mid next year. The good news is their order book is exploding on their traditional business. So I think we're going to see -- begin to see some real leadership from our forging business, particularly there, but also Arkansas steel. I think which will be affected meaningfully by the increased railcar builds. So no, I think we'll see some nice momentum there over the next 6 to 9 months. And then I think we'll begin to see significant operating leverage at Canton as they're able to on-board more people, execute against their backlog and really start to make the parts we've transferred from Chicago at a meaningfully profitable level.

Patrick Fogarty

Analyst

One last point there is, in addition to the investment that we're making in the consolidation of crop and [indiscernible] we made a significant investment in a new hydraulic press line in Arkansas. The completion of that and the gearing up for production occurred right at the time the pandemic hit. And so we have suffered for 2 years without real volume to be on that line. And we're starting to see with rail orders and railcar build rates escalate. We're starting to see the benefit of that. And the big turnaround in that segment from a loss a year ago to $7 million in operating income this year is a huge turnaround that takes into effect the work that's been done operationally as well as these new investments.

Steve Barger

Analyst

Yes. And you must feel like you have a couple of years of visibility on that line now, right?

Patrick Fogarty

Analyst

I think that we have visibility to return to where we have been. I think we're still working through how and with which customers and products we're going to envision for the long-term excess capacity. We'd like to diversify the business from rail a little bit. We're looking at some other great partners. So in terms of what I view, if you recall, Steve, some of that investment was made to backstop some of the demand in the rail industry. I still think we have tremendous opportunity as we work down the backlog to find great long-term partnerships in the construction or ag industry that will really take us to levels we've never been.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Yilma Abebe with JPMorgan.

Yilma Abebe

Analyst · JPMorgan.

My first question is on free cash flow. I believe you mentioned in the back half of this year expect working capital to come down. Can you give us a little bit more color in terms of the key new drivers there? And I'm trying to think about sort of your sales growth and then putting that in context of working capital investment needed to support that the growth in the balance of this year?

Patrick Fogarty

Analyst · JPMorgan.

This is Pat. Two things are going to drive free cash flow in the second half of the year. Obviously, the improvement in earnings and EBITDA will benefit free cash flow our days in working capital, as I described in my script, are at higher levels than we have seen historically, primarily because of the elongated supplier lead times, we're carrying more inventory as a result of inventory that's on the boat coming over from Asia. Some of that we expect to scale back. We've carried more inventory in support of our customers' demand than we historically have. We're starting to bring those levels down and we saw that happening in the month of June. Our working capital levels generally to our every sales dollar is about 24%. Some business is a little higher, some a little less. But our drive for each of the business units is to get back to historical levels, which will obviously benefit our free cash flow. We expect that to start taking hold in the second half of the year a little longer than what, quite frankly, I had hoped for, but we're starting to see that happen.

Matthew Crawford

Analyst · JPMorgan.

I'd only add that we are expecting, I think, significant cash flows at the back of the year, which is fairly typical for the company, but recognize some of the business dynamics that are going on right now that may take a little longer to harvest. One is in Supply Technologies lead times on product from Asia can be 60, even 9 months. So some of the inventory we're taking on now to protect our customers and make sure that we're fulfilling at a rate that's acceptable to them over 100,000 SKUs could be considerably difficult to manage 6 to 9 months out. So I think we'll have some play in those numbers that it will take a little longer to play out. Also, I think that supply chain challenges in the equipment business have been challenging as well. The backlog has grown to very high levels, principally because of business activity in the order book, but there's also a piece in there, which is some of the challenges to get equipment out because we're waiting on components, et cetera. So we're holding a little more inventory that we have purchase order for that we may not like, but we're going to have to do that to manage our supply chain. So that may take a little longer than year-end. So we expect a really good year-end, but that's not really the whole store opportunity we have on the balance sheet.

Yilma Abebe

Analyst · JPMorgan.

I guess maybe a quick follow-up on that. As we look forward to next year and then more specifically on working capital, in the context of what you discussed in terms of supply chains and issues and holding more inventory. How should we think about working capital trends as we go into next year, assuming the demand picture holds relatively constant to current levels?

Matthew Crawford

Analyst · JPMorgan.

I think that will depend on the business unit and where demand shakes out for next year. But just to put it in context for you, for every 5 days of working capital, that equates to about $20 million. So if we have $5 million to $10 million of increased days of working capital, we're saying that we have $30 million of excess working capital where volumes are today. So we believe that embedded working capital could come out of the system if sales remain constant as we head into 2023.

Yilma Abebe

Analyst · JPMorgan.

And then one final one. In terms of capital allocation and M&A and looking at leverage and debt, how should we think about your M&A in the pipeline and incremental debt for acquisitions?

Matthew Crawford

Analyst · JPMorgan.

As you know, we have been traditionally very interested in growing by acquisition. I think that we are still interested in that. I'd say that we have been increasingly focused on organizing the business in a way that; number one focuses on our best products and services in terms of both what success looks like over 5 to 10 years and also 2, what provides sort of incrementally strong either operating leverage or gross margins to the business. So I do think we're a little more selective and that's why we haven't done as much over the last couple of years. I think you will continue to see our appetite for those kinds of acquisitions that support initiatives inside each of the businesses. So we'll continue to be selective. I think that you can expect we will continue to be adhere to the principles that got us here, which is being thoughtful buyers. So I wouldn't suggest to you that we are not going to be active, we are, but I think we're going to continue to be more selective over the near horizon.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'll turn the floor back to the management team for closing remarks.

Matthew Crawford

Analyst

Great. Well, thank you very much for your time today. We appreciate your support and look forward to an exciting second half. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.