Thomas A. Hassfurther - Packaging Corp. of America
Management
Yeah, I think Mark hit the key point there, George and that is that, as you mentioned, given the demand that we have right now in the industry and you just look at the run rates, we're going to need additional capacity in this market. Now, that said, most of the additions that have been either executed or on the drawing board are integrated suppliers, and they've got a home for those tons, obviously. When we went through this before, not that long ago in the industry, there was a lot of consternation about it. And it turned out that the industry did absorb this tonnage, and that most of the suppliers, certainly ourselves, I mean, we run to demand, and that's what we'll continue to do. But if you look at a number of other things that are going on as well, we've talked in the last couple of calls about the situation in China, the fact that they absolutely need fiber. I think the Nine Dragons move into the United States as well as a couple of others demonstrates that in spades. They're talking about shipping pulp back. They're talking about shipping a limited amount of containerboard back with what they can convert. It's expensive to do. But given the situation over there, they need fiber, and so that's all going over to China as we see it. Mark also mentioned the limited open market that we have here. I mean, the dynamics in this industry has changed dramatically, as we've talked about, and said that integrated producers are generally somewhere around 90% of the demand. And so you've got a very, very limited open market to sell to. If somebody doesn't have a customer, they're probably going to have to look overseas for that. In addition, some of the other things that we've seen announced, maybe the one-offs, tend to be recycled or maybe it's a virgin, but it's not the best virgin. It's very high cost. And a lot of these conversions are not in very good wood baskets. And they're also limited to lightweights and super lightweights which again is a limited market. So, overall, I think that we don't have tremendous concerns about this because we know what the demand is on the conversion side. And that tells us, I mean, on the box side I'm talking about, and that translates into some need for new capacity.