Tom Baltimore
Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Ian, and welcome everyone. Consistent with our prior quarters, the second quarter was incredibly active at Park, as we remain laser focused on maximizing shareholder value over multiple fronts. As always, we have been relentlessly focused on our proactive approach to asset management, partnering with our operators to deliver outperformance in any environment. We continue to make significant strides on our capital allocation efforts, selling three additional noncore assets during the quarter. Further improving our high-quality portfolio and also beginning work on two important ROI projects: the Bonnet Creek meeting space expansion and the conversion of The Reach Resort to a Curio. And finally, we have been thoroughly preparing for the pending acquisition of Chesapeake Lodging Trust, which is currently expected to have a mid-to-late September close with the Chesapeake special shareholder meeting to consider and vote on the proposed merger expected to take place on September 10. We remain incredibly excited about this transaction, the combination with Chesapeake is a compelling opportunity to accelerate several of our long-term strategic goals including brand, operator and geographic diversity, all positioning the company to drive superior risk-adjusted earnings growth over the long-term. Over the last two months, the team has toured each of the Chesapeake hotels and conducted extensive property reviews with onsite senior leadership. We continue to have strong conviction in our underwriting and see upside in both revenue generation and additional expense savings. We are reaffirming our initial expectation of an incremental $24 million of EBITDA in 2020, and a total of $34 million of EBITDA upside in 2021, inclusive of our annual G&A savings of $17 million. Additionally, given Chesapeake’s outside exposure to market such as San Francisco, Chicago, and Southern California, which are poised to benefit from strong citywide business and our renovation tailwinds in 2020 bolting on the Chesapeake portfolio should add an incremental 80 basis points of top-line growth to Park’s legacy portfolio next year. Chesapeake also has made meaningful progress on the anticipated sales of its two New York City assets. As noted in Chesapeake’s recent press release, both hotels are under contract to a single buyer for total proceeds of $138 million or a 6% cap rate with an expected close prior to our acquisition of Chesapeake. The sale of these two assets by Chesapeake will further delever the balance sheet of the combined company going forward. Overall, we have strong conviction about the opportunity and we remain confident in the long-term benefits of this acquisition. Although transaction offers additional leverage to generate incremental shareholder value, it does not divert our attention away from the significant embedded value within Park’s core portfolio. We remain laser focused on aggressively asset managing the portfolio and expect to continue narrowing the margin gap with our peers. Turning to operations. In the second quarter, comparable RevPAR for the portfolio increased 0.8%, against a very difficult year-over-year comparisons in a challenging demand environment. As expected, group revenues declined by 1.7% during the quarter, a direct result of lapping the strong 18% growth rate in group revenue we produced last year. Softer citywide calendars across several of our key markets were partially offset by healthy production in markets like San Francisco and Orlando with group pace up nearly 13% and 4% respectively. Looking forward, we expect group to remain strong for the second half of the year with overall pace forecasted to increase over 15%. On the transient side, revenues increased 1.1%, driven by a 4.6% increase in leisure demand, but offset by a 2.5% decline in business transient demand. Despite a relatively healthy economic backdrop, beginning in May, business transient occupancy started to decline, which we believe reflects some corporate uncertainty in light of the ongoing trade war with China. That said, we have not witnessed a material change in fundamentals with group and leisure trends still healthy and supply in check across most of our key markets. Furthermore, we continue to outperform our comp set as we grew market share during the second quarter at more than 65% of our hotels by an average of 350 basis points, equating to nearly $15 million of market share growth for the portfolio. In terms of margins, comparable hotel adjusted EBITDA margin contracted by only 90 basis points in the quarter to 31.3%. Our asset management initiatives are clearly evident in these results as we kept comparable expense growth to just 2.5% in notable accomplishment in today’s low RevPAR, high labor cost environment. Looking at our core markets. Our second quarter results were primarily driven by strength in Key West, San Francisco, Hawaii and Santa Barbara, which was partially offset by softness in Seattle, New Orleans, Chicago and New York. Key West was our top-performing top 10 market this quarter, posting a 5.4% RevPAR growth and a clear signal that demand has not only recovered since Hurricane Irma, but surpassed 2017 pre-storm demand levels. In San Francisco despite facing a very difficult year-over-year comp, our two hotels continue to exhibit considerable strength recording a combined RevPAR increase, 4.5%, outperforming the broader San Francisco market by 320 basis points. Group revenues were up 13%, which is particularly impressive considering group revenues increased 55% in the second quarter of 2018. In Waikoloa, our hotel exhibited a strong recovery from last year’s volcanic disruption, posting a 4.5% RevPAR growth during the quarter on solid transient demand. We are expecting a stellar group quarter in Q3 at Waikoloa, with group pace up approximately 525%, the hotel has forecasted to be our top performer over the back half of the year with RevPAR growth projected to be north of 30% on average. I also want to highlight our Hilton Santa Barbara Beachfront Resort, which continues to ramp up and exhibit strong performance on Park’s up-branding and renovation of the asset, a project, which was completed during the second quarter of 2018. The hotel grew RevPAR by 29% over 2018 and group catering contribution was up 22% during the quarter, further highlighting the success of the repositioning by Park. Congratulations to the Santa Barbara team, who has done a terrific job ramping up post renovation, driving over a 1000 basis points of margin improvement at the property during Q2. We continue to believe there are a number of other significant value-creation opportunities like this one throughout our portfolio. Offsetting these positive second quarter results was the underperformance at our two Seattle Airport Hotels, which together produced a RevPAR decline of nearly 11%, placing a 40 basis points drag on total portfolio RevPAR. Excluding Seattle, our comparable RevPAR growth would have been 1.2% for the quarter. Note that we have since made leadership changes at our Seattle properties. Other softer markets included Chicago, New York, and New Orleans, all of which recorded declines in group demand that proved difficult to offset with transient. Looking ahead, we expect group to rebound with double-digit pace projected for all three hotels over the back half of the year. on the capital recycling front, I’m very pleased with the progress made during the second quarter. Having closed on the sales of three non-core domestic assets or combined gross proceeds of $166 million, which will be used to meaningfully reduce net leverage ahead of our proposed merger of the Chesapeake. we have now sold a total of 18 assets for over $750 million of proceeds since spinning out of Hilton. While Park has returned over $2 billion of capital to shareholders. In addition, subsequent to year-end, we entered into a contract to sell our Conrad Dublin Hotel at very attractive pricing with the deal expected to close by year-end. Total proceeds for the sale are $130 million with our joint venture interest totaling $62 million. Demand for hotel real estate among private equity buyers remain strong and we continue to explore noncore assets sales to further deliver the balance sheet. Consequently, we expect to beginning marketing process on two to three Chesapeake hotels in the coming months. We are also actively marketing the sale of our Hilton Sao Paulo, one of our last remaining international hotels. Those proceeds for all four hotels are estimated to be between $375 million to $425 million, which together with the other completed or announced part in Chesapeake hotel sales would reduce the combined companies’ net debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio to approximately four times and be a clear signal to our commitment to maintaining a low-levered balance sheet. Turning to outlook for the remainder of the year. Park is well positioned for relative outperformance. Our transient trends across the U.S. have been choppy, park’s proactive efforts to group up our portfolio, should help us continue to post sector-leading growth over the next two quarters. The RevPAR growth over the back half of the year expected to average around 3%, Q3 is projected to be the stronger of the two remaining quarters of 2019. the group pays up over 25%. San Francisco should remain one of our top markets along with Key West and Waikoloa. And finally, we expect healthy margin expansion in the second half of the year as we continue to focus on our asset management initiatives and take advantage of proactively grouping up the portfolio. Despite our relative strong positioning, global macro concerns have weighed heavily on fundamentals across the industry with annual RevPAR growth forecast contracting across several of our key markets, primarily in the business transient segment. with this is the backdrop, we are readjusting our full-year RevPAR estimates down by 75 basis points at the midpoint to 2% to 3.5%. from margins, we’re lowering our guidance to a new range of flat to plus 50 basis points or down by 25 basis points at the midpoint partially due to increased property insurance premiums. Sean will provide additional details on our updated guidance. and with that, I will turn it over to Sean.