Todd Morgenfeld
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed
Thanks, Bill. I'd like to share some further details on the trends we saw in Q2 and provide a preliminary update for Q3. Before I jump into the quarter, a quick review of our principles. As Bill mentioned, Pinterest is uniquely valuable for consumers because it helps them discover new ideas and then bring those ideas to life often through purchases. But the full funnel journey that consumers take on Pinterest from demand inception through product consideration to conversion means that Pinterest offers differentiated value for a wide range of advertisers, too. And the ways in which they engage with Pinterest are quite distinct from social media companies. This is due to our users' unique mindset. They tend to be in-market consumers with high commercial intent. Initially, our service attracted mostly larger retail and consumer packaged goods or CPG advertisers who wanted to be discovered by our user base and recognize the value of the fact that well over 90% of Pinner queries were unbranded and still are today. These advertisers remain an important part of our business and make Pinterest's advertiser composition a fair bit different than many other online advertising platforms. But we've also built a significant performance advertising business over the past several years that has helped marketers leverage the organic commercial intent on Pinterest to drive conversions, often additions to a cart, checkouts or purchases. The advertisers who reliably find strong returns on Pinterest are those who value our unique offering, including our differentiated and highly attractive user demographic, the high commercial intent that I just described, a relatively brand-safe environment, insights-led media buying and longer attribution windows that reflect the value of advertising at the inception of actual demand when the value of advertising is arguably higher than later in a purchase decision. To that end and despite challenging macro conditions, we saw resilience from our large advertising partners, with 25% growth in spend commitments from joint business partnerships in the first half of 2022 compared to the first half of 2021. As a reminder, these joint business partnerships, while nonbinding, are indications of sizable spend commitments from larger advertisers who often view Pinterest as an important channel to reach their consumers. These partnerships often suggest that we are an established channel for those partners rather than an experimental platform. Furthermore, we're focused on expanding our monetization to new geographies, and it's beginning to drive results. While we had 223 million monthly active users in our Rest of World segment, our revenue in Rest of World in Q2 was just $22 million. However, our Rest of World ARPU increased by 80% year-over-year. In line with this strategy, we launched ads in Japan in the second quarter. And in July, we expanded into Chile, Argentina and Colombia. And we're excited to monetize our emerging markets. On a year-over-year basis, our monthly active users declined 5%. Some of the factors contributing to our year-over-year MAU decline are easier to quantify such as lower search traffic, largely driven by Google's algorithm change in November of last year, which resulted in fewer new users and resurrections, and the last vestiges of the pandemic unwind, which we believe we largely lapped at the end of Q2. We do also face increasing competition for time spent on competitive video-centric platforms, primarily in our mature markets, but it's challenging to quantify or measure the impact to our engagement on these platforms. These year-over-year declines were most pronounced for our web users, which dropped approximately 30% year-over-year, while our global mobile app users remain far more resilient, growing 8% year-over-year. It's worth noting that in the US and Canada, our mobile app users were flat sequentially, which was a particularly positive signal during our seasonally weakest quarter of the year for engagement. It's important to note that our global mobile app users represent well over 80% of our revenue and our impressions. So resilience with mobile app users is an important signal for financial performance and capacity. Turning to our financial performance. Q2 revenue grew 9% year-over-year to $666 million or 10% year-over-year on a constant currency basis. Sequentially, our revenue grew 16%. On a two-year basis, revenue accelerated at an annualized rate of 56% in the second quarter compared to 45% growth in the first quarter. In Europe, our revenue grew 22% year-over-year when adjusting for the 12-point headwind due to the strength of the US dollar. On the demand side, the digital advertising environment has been and will continue to be challenging. While we saw strength from retail and international advertisers, we experienced softer demand from CPG, big-box retailers and our mid-market advertisers. Despite these headwinds, shopping ads continue to make progress on the platform. In Q2, shopping ads revenue grew twice as fast as overall revenue year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $92 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14%. Our non-GAAP operating expenses increased 16% sequentially. We thoughtfully designed a plan to invest during the course of 2022. In the first half of the year, we invested heavily and made key hires to augment the organization, which we believe will drive growth in the long term. Also for context in the first quarter, we spent less than we originally anticipated due to slower-than-expected hiring in R&D and a delay in our creator-related marketing spend. In the second quarter, we saw an opportunity to augment our R&D team as the recruiting market became more favorable and our recruiting execution improved. Also, we caught up on some originally planned creator-related marketing. In addition, our G&A expenses increased sequentially, with headcount growth and related payroll spend in our human resources and recruiting teams being the largest contributor. Roughly 1/4 of the sequential increase in expense we expect to be nonrecurring at these levels. Finally, our employees returning to office in the second quarter as COVID protocols changed drove some costs, including an increase in facilities and travel and entertainment-related costs. Turning to our preliminary outlook for Q3. I'd like to first touch on monthly active users. As we mentioned last quarter, we're either providing users, nor an intra-quarter update. But I'd like to offer some additional context on how we're thinking about engagement in the back half of this year. With the pandemic unwind largely behind us, we believe that global monthly active users will return to more seasonal -- more typical seasonal engagement patterns in the second half of the year. Those seasonal patterns typically show modest sequential growth as we move to Q3 and Q4. However, these trends may be a bit more muted than they have been historically and for the US, Canada and Europe specifically, we hope to stabilize our user base in the back half of the year. While the pandemic unwind is largely behind us, we face increasing and sustained competition from video-centric apps for users' share of time spent. And as always, this color assumes that we don't face any incremental exogenous engagement headwinds like further search algorithm changes. I'll now turn to revenue guidance. Given the dynamic nature of the economy today and how quickly conditions can improve or worsen, we thought it would be prudent to provide a fairly broad range rather than providing a point estimate like last quarter. We currently expect Q3 revenue to grow in the mid-single digits on a year-over-year percentage basis. We're growing slightly faster quarter-to-date, but many of our advertising partners, especially larger retailers are experiencing supply chain issues, inflation and weakening consumer demand. These conditions are weighing on advertisers' ability to spend and our best signals of future performance suggests a slowdown from the growth rate we saw in July. This anticipated slowdown will likely land us toward the lower end of our guidance range. Moreover, if economic conditions continue to deteriorate, we could end up with revenue growth at the bottom end of the range or below in the low single digits. Please note that in addition to the challenging economic environment, our Q3 revenue guide of mid-single digits reflects a few other considerations. First, we anticipate slightly greater foreign exchange headwinds when compared to Q2. Second, we continue to monitor the impact of higher CPAs as a result of platform-specific dynamics and our engagement trends. We believe higher pricing may disproportionately affect price-sensitive advertisers' ability to utilize their budgets on our platform. That said, we continue to believe that advertisers who value the things I discussed earlier, that make Pinterest unique, will continue to find success on our platform. Third, Idea Pin distribution will have a modest low single-digit impact to revenue growth in Q3. And as we lap this, we do not believe Idea Pins will be a further meaningful headwind to revenue in Q4 and beyond. Finally, I want to discuss our expense guide and our philosophy around investments. As Bill discussed, we're living in a more uncertain environment marked by slower revenue growth and greater demand volatility. While our business has proven relatively resilient, we're conscious of the economic climate. So far, we've meaningfully slowed the pace of hiring, as we reevaluate our needs for the second half of this year and how best to support our plans for longer-term growth. We will be even more strategic and selective in our hiring plans for the remainder of 2022. For Q3, we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to grow in the low double digits quarter-over-quarter due to our global brand marketing campaign that we intend to launch in mid-September and run through late October, continued investments in our native content and creator efforts and the impact of our recent hiring. We believe that investments in marketing, especially for our mature and newly monetizing markets, can build on and amplify the progress we're making in our core engagement work, and we believe these investments could yield strong returns in the future. For the full year, there’s no change to our previous guide of non-GAAP operating expenses to grow in the range of 35% to 40% year-over-year, with a continued deceleration in sequential expense growth from the second quarter's peak levels. As we said at the start of this year, after three consecutive years of significant margin expansion, we view 2022 as the right time to accelerate investments to better position ourselves to capitalize on our long-term growth potential. We still believe that this is the right approach. But given the increasingly dynamic market environment and with Bill joining the company, we are evaluating our investment profile for the second half of this year and beyond. While there is a significant long-term runway ahead for the business, we have accelerated much of our desired investments into 2022 and believe that we will start to see the benefits of those investments next year. As such, we plan to return to meaningful margin expansion in 2023. As you know, we've long been focused on achieving the appropriate balance between realizing our long-term potential and delivering near-term financial results. We have approximately $2.7 billion of cash on our balance sheet, and Bill and I are discussing how we should be allocating our capital. In Q2, we acquired THE YES, which reinforces our commitment to connecting the commercial intent on our platform with personalized shopping experiences. We'll continue to be thoughtful and strategic about our deployment of cash with respect to future M&A. Bill and I are committed to delivering value for shareholders and will discuss our longer-term strategic framework with you going forward. Thanks to our employees at Pinterest, our advertising partners, our creators and all the people that come to Pinterest to find inspiration, plan and shop. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Bill for a brief comment before we open it up to questions.