Earnings Labs

Polaris Inc. (PII)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 28, 2014

$65.26

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, everyone. My name is Sarah, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you all to the Polaris Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2013 Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to our host, Mr. Richard Edwards. You may begin your conference

Richard Edwards

Analyst

Thank you, Sarah. And good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our 2013 fourth quarter and full year earnings conference call. A slide presentation is accessible at our website at www.polarisindustries.com/irhome, which has additional information for this morning's call. The speakers today are Scott Wine, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Bennett Morgan, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Mike Malone, our Chief Financial Officer. Let me remind you that during the call today, we will be discussing certain topics, including product demand and shipments, sales and margin trends, income and profitability levels and other matters, including more specific guidance on our expectations for 2014, which should be considered forward-looking for the purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Now I turn it over to Scott Wine. Scott?

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for joining us. Each year, we have a competition in the fourth quarter that rewards our top-selling Off-Road Vehicle dealers with the trip to BCS Championship. It is always nice to spend some time with some of our best dealers and for those of us from Minnesota, the warm weather at the Rose Bowl was certainly an added benefit. We were treated to a hard-fought football game between Auburn and Florida State, a fitting metaphor for the competitive battles Polaris is waging across our businesses. Our results show that in 2013, we frequently prevailed, but we see many areas where we must improve our execution. With competitors stepping up their game, we are prepared and expect to win. We entered 2014 with tremendous energy and a renewed focus towards our fifth consecutive year of out-performance. Thanks to substantial demand for our new RANGER and RZR offerings and the excitement in orders surrounding the new Indian Motorcycles, we were able to deliver robust financial performance to close the year and position Polaris for profitable growth. All product lines contributed to the solid year-end finishes for our International and Parts, Garments and Accessories businesses up 46% and 33%, respectively. And our KLIM and Aixam Mega acquisitions also performed at the high end of our expectations. Overall, sales for the quarter were $1.08 billion, up 20% from the prior year period, and marking our second consecutive quarter with over $1 billion in sales. Net income for the fourth quarter was up 23% to $108.7 million, yielding record earnings per share of $1.56, up 26%. Full year 2013 sales increased 18% to just under $3.8 billion as our R&D pipeline delivered a record number of new award-winning products across our Powersports portfolio. Consistent with our strategy, our international and…

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Polaris retail sales increased about 10% for the fourth quarter and for 2013. Polaris expanded its compelling lead in Powersports market share for the sixth consecutive year in a Powersports market that is healthy and growing, up about 7% for 2013. Dealer inventory is in very good shape, up 10% versus 2012, due primarily to new product segments from our innovative new Model Year '14 ORV lineup. But we do see a number of opportunities where we can compete and execute better in 2014 as we face a more challenging competitive environment in many of our businesses. Once such opportunity is delivering a consistently outstanding customer experience of Polaris in our dealerships. We recently aligned sales and service under Tim Larson's customer excellence leadership to enable this improvement. Moving on to business unit performance. Off-Road Vehicles. ORV revenue increased in Q4 16% driven by strength in side-by-sides, particularly RZRs, Defense and Commercial. For calendar year 2013, ORV completed another strong year with revenue up 13%. Polaris gained market share again in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2013 in a growing North American ORV market building on our significant leadership position. We are again #1 in the North American ATV industry, increasing our lead with 2013 retail sales up mid-single digits in an industry that was essentially flat. Polaris side-by-side retail sales growth moderated just a bit in the fourth quarter, but increased low double digits for 2013, outpacing the side-by-side industry we estimate grew around 10% for the year. We again gained market share for 2013, but at a lower rate than the past few years. While expanding armada of ORV solutions is our greatest strength, it is also clear that Polaris and our dealers will have to be vigilant on…

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

Thanks, Bennett, and good morning to everyone. I will start my comments this morning by sharing what we expect 2014 to be the fifth consecutive year of double-digit percentage, top line and bottom line growth for Polaris. Total company sales are expected to increase 11% to 14% for the full year 2014, with every product line projected up versus 2013. A couple of items to note, first, the anticipated Slingshot shipments during the second half of 2014 are included in the guidance for motorcycle business, along with Victory and Indian. And second, the Sportsman ACE product introduced last week is included in the ORV sales guidance. To summarize 2014 sales growth guidance by business, ORV is expected to grow in the high single-digits percentage range driven by our expanding armada of industry-leading products. Our snowmobile business is healthy and sales are expected to grow mid-single digit percent; motorcycles, up 65% to 75%, driven primarily by Indian; small vehicles, up 25% to 30%, which includes a full year of Aixam acquisition; PG&A, up mid-teens percent and growing faster than the overall company; and International growing about 10% over the full year 2013. Now moving down the P&L. Gross margins are expected to decline 50 to 70 basis points in 2014. I will give more detail on gross margins in my next slide. Although operating expenses in dollars are expected to increase in 2014, operating expenses as a percentage of sales are expected to decline about 100 basis points in 2014 compared to 2013. We will continue our spending investment in sales, marketing, product development and distribution related to the Indian Motorcycle and further global investment in future growth opportunities. However, as a percentage of sales, these expenses are expected to be more than offset by a planned reduction in our incentive…

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

Thanks, Mike. To wrap up, I will offer some additional insights into '14 with the benefit of 4 weeks of fighting the battle. The market has been a bit shaky recently, which is somewhat consistent with our view of the global economy. While we expect to see modest sub-3% GDP growth in the U.S., the risk of a downturn seems to outweigh the potential for accelerated growth. The European economy will improve off of a very bad baseline, but we expect it to be a slow and inconsistent pace. China's risks are well documented, but we believe economic growth there will still be in the 5% to 7% range, similar to India, and much better than our 2% to 3% projection for Brazil. We have been able to make growth happen in a slow growth world, and we plan to do so again. Despite pressure on consumers from higher interest rates, taxes and health care premiums, we expect our resilient Powersports customers to drive above GDP growth again in the industry, although likely at a slower rate in 2013. We anticipate another year of aggressive competition in the side-by-side market, with increased promotions possibly being more of a challenge than new products. However, Dave Longren is not only playing with our industry-leading, growing fleet of Off-Road Vehicles, he's also armed with an improved go-to-market strategy to help win the competitive battle. 2014 is a pivotal year for our motorcycle business, as Steve Menneto and his team build capacity and capability to aggressively grow 2 brands. The modern styling and exceptional performance of our Victory bikes are attracting new customers and driving profitable growth, which we expect to continue throughout the year. Our investment in Indian remains high, and energy and excitement around this incredible iconic brand should propel growth almost…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Jaime Katz.

Jaime M. Katz - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Can you talk a little bit about the operating expenses going down this year? I know you said you were still spending on Indian, but I suspect that it's somewhat less than last year, and then the remainder of it from that compensation, is that the right way to think about it?

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

That's exactly the right way, Jaime. Our -- I'm still pained by how much money we're spending to invest in growth across the business and certainly still in Indian, but we do get the benefit of the change in the accrual for prior incentive comp program, which drives most of the decrease.

Jaime M. Katz - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then, for the Indian bikes that are out there already, what has resonated the best with the dealers and the customers? Is it the styling or the technology? And how does that sort of flow through the forward model years if you're thinking about that yet?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

Jaime, this is Bennett. The -- it's really been a home run from a customer dealer standpoint, all the way through it, other than I think we would probably be fairly critical of our ourselves from a standpoint of our ability to meet the demand on the launch. The shipment ramp up was a little slower than we would have liked. But the initial quality is through the moon, and I mean, it's industry-leading -- well above industry-leading levels. The new bikes are gorgeous, they love the styling, they love the feature refinements and it's really kind of a love fest.

Jaime M. Katz - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then, lastly, the new ACE product, is there any concern that, that takes away the demand from other products, or is this sort of a whole new market that you're trying to reach out to?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

Well, we see it as a whole new riding experience and category. And we think it's going to very effectively provide a better experience for a number of existing off-road users, but we also think it'll bring some news to the category people. So anytime we launch even really innovative new product, there's always a small amount of cannibalization, we're expecting some, but frankly, less than most of our products that we launched. So we feel really good about the incrementality of ACE.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Robin Farley from UBS.

Robin M. Farley - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Two questions. First is on the slides. You note that this 50 to 70 basis points include some pressure from what I guess a onetime startup cost for the plant in Poland and I wonder if you could quantify how much of those are one time in nature? And then, my second question is just trying to parse your guys a little bit more for Indian and Victory and Slingshot. I guess, obviously, can you tell us a little more specifically what month Slingshot might ship? And then, also, if your Indian -- it looks like your Indian retail was pretty close to the pre-retail levels in its first full quarter here in Q4, I wonder if you could help us think about the components for 2014 of Indian versus the group versus Slingshot?

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

Okay. I'll start, Robin, this is Mike. I'll start with the gross margin question. As you know, we're in the process of building our new plant in Poland. We got started in the latter part of 2013, and ramp with significant investment through '14, we'll get product out of the plant towards the tail end of the second half of 2014. So the dilutive impact, I don't know that we quantified that exactly for 2014, but we'll have significant cost pressure on our margins through '14. And then, eventually, once we get to proper capacity, the run rate going forward, we'll have $20 million of savings from the plant when we're all done. In addition, there's other projects that we have going on in 2014 that are also dilutive to our margin. I spoke's a little bit about that and the impact on our depreciation as well. As far as the motor...

James Hardiman - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

I was just going to -- just to clarify, Mike, you said significant pressure on '14 margins from the sort of onetime startup cost, do you think margins would have been flat or positive, excluding just those onetime costs?

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

Again, I'm not going to provide any more clarity. There's a number of pressures, I talked about 3 of the bigger pressures in my prepared remarks. I think, each one of those is a significant pressure. And we do have a lot of things going positive, like we do other years, it's just that the bad guys are kind of ganging up on us in 2014.

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

Just quickly on the motorcycle question. Obviously, we are thrilled with bikes that we had to compete going into '14. And certainly, with the addition of Slingshot, that portfolio is going to get even stronger. As we said in our prepared remarks, Slingshot is going to launch in the second half and we're not going to provide any more specificity than that. Although, clearly, it's not going to be a huge volume play for us in '14. The Indian and Victory play, I think, you've got to be a little bit careful there. Obviously, there was pent-up demand for Indian, which helped. And as we go into '14, the demand remains extremely high. But as Bennett indicated in his remarks, although we've got 140 dealers signed in North America, there's only 60 that are retailing, and we're going to ramp that up quickly. But we're going to -- even at the end of the year, it'd be less than half of where Victory is. And as we get better at marketing and selling the Victory bikes, they're not going to stand still while Indian catches up. So Indian is going to grow throughout the year. I think, the spring selling season will be very important for us. We don't have a capacity problem, I'm fairly certain of that. As Bennett said, we struggled a little bit to ensure we had the right quality as we ramped up production, but I feel very comfortable of where the team is now. So we're going to place it on where consumer demand is and go from there.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from James Hardiman of Longbow Research.

James Hardiman - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

I was actually going to another direction but just to close the loop on that last piece of commentary there, Scott. So 60 dealers currently retailing today, we should be at 140, pretty quickly here, what do we think that number is going to be by the end of the year?

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

A lot more.

James Hardiman - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Okay. Fair enough. And then...

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

James, just one thing, just so you don't take those remarks out of context, I mean, most of these guys are doing brick-and-mortar adjustments to be ready for Indian with the higher standards and they are ramping up quickly. But I think, if you assume that 140 will be retailing in the next 30 days, that's -- you're probably taking that too far.

James Hardiman - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Right, I totally get you there. And then, to the point that you don't have a capacity problem, basically, you think that whatever the retail numbers are for this year, you should be able to -- or the retail demand, I should say, is you should be able to get the shipments there to handle that?

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

I'd love to be proven wrong of that, but I'm fairly confident I got that right.

James Hardiman - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Okay. Perfect. My bigger question here was just with relation to ORV retail, I think, it was low teens coming out of third quarter, very little benefit from the new products. I think, everybody agrees that the new products are as significant as they've been in years. I think, most of us then would have expected ORVs to maybe accelerate in the fourth quarter. What's the disconnect here? Was product availability an issue? Obviously, an early start to winter, how should I think about the deceleration in ORV retail?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

James, this is Bennett. I think, there's a couple of factors. I mean, you've nailed a number of points. The new introductions have been, frankly, home runs, we're thrilled with the response. There's a couple of factors that, I think, if you'll talk to other retailers, you've seen, that there was 6 less retailing days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, and that impacted us. I think, it impacted most of the [indiscernible] you see a rate there and I think that kind of moderated the fourth quarter retail numbers for us because, frankly, as we closed the year, we felt really good about our momentum and we're coming off very stout comparables. If you remember, we were mid to upper 20s last year in the fourth quarter. So -- and gained a ton of share. So we're not really concerned in the least about what looked to be a little bit of a retail deceleration.

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

But that being said, I mean, our confidence in our product portfolio and our ability to continue to compete gain share in '14, we certainly feel like we could have executed better in some areas. And I think, the addition of Tim Larson to the team, you'll see, I talked about some of our go-to-market strategies. And I think, generally, as you look at the way we compete throughout '14, you'll see a more effective, not just product strategy, but commercial strategy as well.

James Hardiman - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Very helpful. And then, just lastly, and I don't want to read too much into your comments and maybe I've just listened to these calls for too many years, but it seems like you guys underscored -- it seems like you underscored sort of competitive pressures more than you have in the past than -- I know, in the past, but a lot of us would see some headline products coming down the pipe and be very focused on those. It doesn't seem like there was anything really noteworthy here recently, so was that more just a cumulative impact of the last year plus of new products or there's some new things in the last couple of quarters that you felt like really puts the pressure on?

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

No, I think, we have been very clear that we expected the side-by-side category to become much more competitive. And I think, throughout 2013, we saw almost every competitor in the category bring new product in various models. And at the end of the year, the cumulative effect of many of the players bringing new models, none of which, we believe, put us at a product disadvantage. I mean, we still feel incredibly strong, but it's just an overall look at the landscape, which has essentially played out exactly like we expected it to.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Tim Conder of Wells Fargo Securities.

Timothy A. Conder - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Scott, one thing here on Indian. Based on your guidance for Indian, and granted how things look at this point, I mean, granted that, that can change, it would imply that Indian, you're saying it's going to drive most of the year-over-year increase in the motorcycle category. That, that would be $150 million, $175 million at this point? Is that fair kind of looking at the math?

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

I don't think so, Tim, but we don't give detailed product line sales information. But I would suspect that's a little bit like.

Timothy A. Conder - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then, another question, roughly how many units per dealer would you anticipate dealers carrying as a stocking unit that they should have on a continual basis?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

Yes, Tim, this is Bennett, we're running the retail floor management just like we are in Victory, and that's worked extremely well. These are going to be higher velocity dealers versus what we've seen with Victory. So you'll need a little bit more to keep right place, right time. We'd say right around 10.

Timothy A. Conder - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then, I mean, just maybe you zoom out here, looking at the overall commentary that you've given on '14, and what you said about your long-term guidance. You said, with acquisitions, looking out to 2020, you expect to have about 12% top line growth, and 13% bottom line growth. And then, the majority of that is just continual reinvestment and the mix change with small vehicles that lesser flow-through, I mean, that's obviously nothing too different that what you said previously, just any additional commentary on that?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

I think, Tim, the 1 missing point on your perspective there is we do not expect a stable global economy through the next 6 years. I mean, I think, there's going to be a period where many of us, not just in Powersports, face a declining economy that may put pressure on sales. So I think it's just factoring in, it may not be enough here every year from an economic standpoint going forward. And if you think into a down year, I think, our growth rates overall are going to be solid.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jimmy Baker of B. Riley & Company.

Jimmy Baker - B. Riley Caris, Research Division

Analyst

You've addressed most of my questions already, I just have a couple of follow-ups. So first, I just wanted to make sure that we're understanding your color on competitive pressure correctly. So am I hearing that right that it seems like you've taken the best product punch from many of your competitors already and that hasn't really worked for them. You continue to gain share. So now you're anticipating that they might move more to compete on price rather than product merit?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

Yes, I think, that's exactly correct, Jimmy. And I think, the part that we try to underscore, as James was taking up, is it's a broader environment. And so when we're winning in our stores and even with our dealers that carry competitive lines, we have to be more cognizant that there are a bunch of guys that don't carry Polaris products and we got to make sure that we have the strategy to drive share gains in each of our segments, which we've shown ourselves capable of doing. That's what Scott's talking about with our improved go-to-market in '14. So that's really the difference.

Jimmy Baker - B. Riley Caris, Research Division

Analyst

Great. And then, just to follow-up on the gross margin guidance. You've historically been able to still improve gross margins while launching new plants, when I think about Monterrey, or even in 2013, improving gross margin while incurring some of the startup cost in Poland. So anything unique about the 2014 launch schedule that makes it more challenging? And then, without maybe quantifying the various bad guys, maybe you could just rank the 4 sources of gross margin pressure in order of severity?

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

Sure, Jimmy. I don't think there's anything different or unusual on the plant startup stuff in 2014 than what we've had before. But I think, there's a couple of things. One is this Canadian dollar. I gave you a very specific example in my prepared comments because you tend to kind of gloss over that. When you just talk about currencies in general, it's very generic but -- I mean, that's our largest subsidiary and if that currency stays where it's at today, 70 basis points in margin erosion from one currency, and that's hard to overcome, especially when it's happened so fast over the last couple of months. So that's certainly something we don't have a lot of control over, unfortunately. And what we -- the way we see it today, that's what's staring at us in the face and we've got to find a way to overcome that and we've got to deal with it, it's the reality. We haven't always had those kinds of pressures. So again, we're not going to quantify the impacts. I spoke in my prepared comments with the material changes.

Jimmy Baker - B. Riley Caris, Research Division

Analyst

Mike, just a quick follow-up, could you just maybe rank the 4 pressures in order of severity for us?

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

No. No, we're not -- no.

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

I think you said no.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Scott Stember of Sidoti & Company. Scott L. Stember - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Can you talk about on Brutus, it sounds as if you put some -- your plan of putting some changes in on the commercial side going forward, but you talked about a substantial uptick in the fourth quarter. Could you talk about what was behind that and any trends going forward?

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

Yes, I'll start and I'll give it to Ben. I got to tell you that as usual with Brutus, we have nailed the product at this point. I've been using mine, we've had way too much snow here in Minnesota, I've been using it quite frequently, love where the product is. And what you realized is we were not as good at our go-to-market strategy outside of core Powersports as we could have been. And we put a lot of thought into it, we thought we were pretty good, came up a little bit short. But I think, Bennett's put a lot of his personal time into this one. And I wouldn't want to bet against the improvements we're making, especially with the Ariens partnership. And you want to add some color, Bennett?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

No, I think, you really kind of covered it. There's lots of opportunities as we go into '14, and that's both on our side, the dealer side. And frankly, again, as we talked about earlier, the B2B and the B2G customer, it's a longer fuse and ramp than what Polaris' patience factor usually is. And so -- but we we're lacking some skills on the front end from the dealer side and from a Polaris side, and so that's why we're bolstering that pretty aggressively. And the strategy is pretty, I think, apparent. We're going to utilize a host of brands and channels to get after this commercial market. It's a pretty profitable segment for us already. Scott L. Stember - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Okay. Great. And on the Parts, Garments and Accessories side, you've highlighted the recent addition of generator products, can you talk about the opportunity there on a full year basis going forward?

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

Yes, it's a nice little category. I don't think you should consider this one grow into the moon. It's a real natural play when we do the research with our customers. We've got a really nice inverter solution that I think is very competitively priced and the performance is quite good. But consider this just an additional piece of the puzzle for PG&A in its growth as we go forward. Don't over-model that one. Scott L. Stember - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Got you. And what is the share count at the end of the year after the share repurchase? Or just as we stand right now, what is the absolute share count?

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

I got to look that up. I don't have that off the top of my head.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Michael Swartz from SunTrust.

Michael A. Swartz - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

I just wanted to touch on the ORV inventory situation. It was up mid-teens it looks like at the end of the calendar year. Just thoughts on that, I mean, is that where you had expected to be when we last talked in October? And then, how do we think about that over maybe the next one or 2 quarters?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

Michael, this is Bennett. Yes, I think, it's right where we thought it would be. Again, with the model year '14 launches, we created a couple of new segments within the dealerships that, frankly, they needed to stock and require. And so it's really pretty much right on where we thought it was going to be. As you go forward into the next couple of quarters, we're always -- bulk up a tad that as we get into the key spring seasonality, you might see it rise a little bit, and then you'll see it taper off a little bit as we get to the end of the second quarter just by our natural rhythm to seasonality.

Michael A. Swartz - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Great. And I would assume that, that doesn't include Slingshot, right? That's in motorcycles, is that what I heard?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

Yes, Slingshot, obviously, won't ship until the second half of the year. And when we embed that in, we'll probably report that over time separately, but it will be embedded within motorcycles.

Michael A. Swartz - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then, just second question, not to beat this horse dead, but just gross margin looking at maybe the cadence throughout the year, I think you said you have about 10% of your Canadian exposure hedged right now. So should we expect most of that impact in the early part of the year?

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

Well, Michael, most of our hedges are earlier in the year, we tend to hedge a little heavier closer in and further out, but the Canadian exposure tends to be back end-weighted, it's generally where our cash flows come from. In Canada, it's tends to be back end-weighted. And I have the answer to Scott's question earlier on the share count. The share count at the end of the year 2013 is 65.6 million shares, obviously, before the dilutive impact of competition plans.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Craig Kennison. Craig R. Kennison - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Mike, I'll start with you on the credit side, on the consumer credit side, are you seeing any change in behavior among credit peers, whether it's prime or sub prime?

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

Not materially. Our -- you can see our penetration rate is a little bit lower than it was a year ago and the approval rate is a little bit lower. I think, one of the things we're starting to see is as consumers get a little bit more confident, more lower tier customers are coming into the store looking for credit. And so the approval rates are slipping just a little bit, but we view it as relatively stable. Craig R. Kennison - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: And then, Bennett, any color on how Ariens and Bobcat could play together with some of your products? In other words, do you see any channel conflict you have to manage?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

No, I don't. I think, we were -- our people were very concerned when we came out with Bobcat, and that really has been a very differentiated vehicle, differentiated channel, differentiated customer. And frankly, we see the exact same thing as Ariens comes into the mix, it will be highly differentiated product, they're unique channels, they go after really unique customers, and so there's not a lot of overlap. And so I think we feel really good about these strategies that it will be pure for all parties involved.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mark Smith of Feltl and Company.

Mark E. Smith - Feltl and Company, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Can you just talk a little bit about the snow business and wherever we see you guys do share in anything these days, just what you have coming up and how you feel you can get that a little bit back?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

Mark, this is Bennett. We've had a really nice run in snow in the last 3 years and gained, frankly, a bunch of share. And we're -- obviously, we're a little disappointed that we haven't gained share season-to-date, but frankly, we kind of faced that coming right out of the gate last year, we didn't, what we call, win the snow check battle, we didn't necessarily choose to win the snow check battle by being really aggressive on promotions. And our through the door, which is kind of in-season activity, frankly, we are gaining share and picking up momentum. Fourth quarter was stronger. The new products are selling extremely well. The Model Year '14 quality is outstanding, and we have an awesome lineup of Model Year '15s coming. And the snowmobile industry has been healthier than it's been in 15 years. So I mean, if I ever got to lose share, I feel really good about the snowmobile business right now. I guess it's my -- it's the takeaway there, we're not really too upset about where we are other than we hate to lose any share.

Mark E. Smith - Feltl and Company, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then, just looking at PG&A, we talked generators, we talked a little bit of client growth. As we talked at your attachment rate of accessories on ORV models, you've seen similar rates on the new models on the -- especially on the 1000 and then expectations on Indian and even on a product like [indiscernible]

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

Yes, I would tell you that the ORV and the Indian and the PG&A teams have done an awesome job of really developing some quantum leap forward, integration and customer solutions over the last couple years, and that is driving the penetration rates up, I think, significantly on those new products and in those categories. I think, you'll see nice penetration rates on ACE. It's -- again, it's the early, early innings there, but that's going to fall somewhere between an ATV and a side-by-side from a penetration rate. So we expect to do very well, but I'm not sure yet I can tell you exactly if that's going to be closer to ATV kind of penetration rate or side-by-side penetration rate. But clearly, the track to integrate and innovate is driving penetration rate up significantly in all our businesses.

Mark E. Smith - Feltl and Company, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Are you pleased with Indian, I guess, on what you've seen so far on the accessories side?

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

Yes, I mean, customers love this product. I will tell you, again, in our spirit of generally being forthcoming and critical, we're not -- we haven't been perfect on accessory delivery with our ramp up. And so we've got a few products that were still on backorder that we're desperately trying to get out that can affect delivery of bikes, which is always concerning, but the sales to dealers and customers on Indian has been outstanding.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Joe Hovorka. Joseph D. Hovorka - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: A couple of questions. First, a clarification. Did you say depreciation and amortization is going to be at 40%? Or is that specific in cost of goods, I missed that one comment.

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

Depreciation and amortization is expected to be up 40%, that's the cash flow part of that, not all of that expense hits on gross margins, but the vast majority of it does. Joseph D. Hovorka - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: Okay. And then, the Slingshot, is that sold through Victory or Indian dealers or separate dealers?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

We'll let you know that sometime in the second half. Joseph D. Hovorka - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: Okay. And a question about ACE then, and you probably won't answer the question about products, but is it closer to -- are the margins on ACE more like side-by-side or more like ATV?

Bennett J. Morgan

Analyst

Joe, this is Bennett. It's a new product, it's a new category. It would be closer to ATV type of margins today. But again, it's early, it's a new product innovation, we have a good track record of always improving that over time and that will be our expectation with ACE as we go forward. Joseph D. Hovorka - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: Okay. And do you have the ASP growth in ORV for the quarter?

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

No.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Rommel Dionisio of Wedbush.

Rommel T. Dionisio - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst

On Victory, you guys, saw some nice mid single-digit growth there, is that really the benefits of the price adjustments you saw you enacted in the summer time or is there something else going on there?

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

I think, it's a lot of things, Rommel. One of the benefits that we thought we might get that we're seeing is as we have launched Indian, we're seeing a nice little pick up in Victory, so that's been good. I believe, we were perhaps late to the game on adjusting price coming out with some of these value models, but our lineup in Victory now is as good as it's ever been. The association with Indian has helped us in, overall, in the motorcycle business. And quite frankly, our dealers are executing quite well. So just in large, as we go into '14, we're feeling good about the Victory business.

Rommel T. Dionisio - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst

I have no further questions queued up at this time,.

Michael W. Malone

Analyst

Okay. The answer to Joe's question was looks like 12% ASP increase in the fourth quarter.

Scott W. Wine

Analyst

Okay. That's all the time we have this morning and want to thank everyone again for participating in the call this morning, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you, and have a good day.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.