Bennett J. Morgan
Analyst · Sidoti & Company
Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Fourth quarter operational performance was excellent and Polaris remains on the gas. North American retail sales increased 13%, the 11th consecutive quarter of double-digit retail growth, and for the year we were up a robust 14%, identical to 2011's stellar retail growth rate. We built further on our #1 market share position in North American powersports and for the third consecutive year, we gained share in every business we competed in. Our operations and global supply teams continue to deliver production upside to meet increasing customer demand, and we have initiated new investments that will expand our global manufacturing footprint into Europe and India. As we projected on our third quarter call, North American dealer inventory finished 2012 up 25% versus a year ago, as we continue to better match product availability to retail demand. Our dealers and our internal metrics continues to confirm inventory levels and quality are in excellent shape, while our new capabilities in the retail flow management and MDP will enable us to reduce dealer stock while optimizing point-of-sale availability. ORV inventory was up 26% to support incremental side-by-side and ATV new market segments and our increased retail velocity. Motorcycle inventory was up 43% driven by new dealer adds and RFM implementation. RFM has already reduced order-to-delivery time by over 75% and reduced stock outs by 35%. In 2013, we anticipate Victory customer order fulfillment in less than 18 days. Snowmobile inventory was up 16% due to higher beginning-of-season inventory levels. So all in all, as we entered 2013, we feel good about our dealer inventory levels and, more importantly, our increased capabilities to meet dealer and consumer demand moving forward. For 2013, we do not expect dealer inventory levels to increase or decrease significantly. Moving onto business unit performance. Off-Road Vehicles. Our ORV business is rolling. Fourth quarter revenues increased by 22% driven by North American core ATV and side-by-side sales strength, which more than offset some weakness in international and military markets. For the full year, ORV, again, achieved record sales and grew by 22%. Polaris continues to build on our undisputed leadership in ORV market share and retail momentum remains very good. For the full year 2012, North American ATV industry retail sales increased slightly, the first increase in ATV industry sales in 8 years, although the industry did decline marginally in the fourth quarter. Despite the weaker industry, Polaris' fourth quarter and calendar year 2012 ATV retail sales had healthy growth of upper-single digits. On the strength of this performance, for the first time ever, we achieved #1 in North American ATV industry retail market share. It's simply a tremendous accomplishment by our team and our dealer network. Polaris' North American side-by-side retail was similarly outstanding, up over 20% in both the fourth quarter and for the full year 2012 in an industry we estimated to continue to grow about low-teens percent. Our new ORV Model Year '13 products, including the new RANGER 900 XP, the RANGER 800 EFI Midsize and the Scrambler 850 are all selling very briskly. And we've recently introduced the RZR 900 XP Jagged X Edition at our Camp RZR in Glamis, California, in front of tens of thousands of side-by-side enthusiasts. It's our most deluxe production RZR ever built. It has a new high output 94 horsepower 900 engine, custom bucket seats and factory-installed doors. Orders sold out in less than 24 hours and product has already begun shipping to dealers in January. For 2013, we expect the ORV industry to continue to grow, but at a slower rate to 2012, and Polaris to, again, outperform in both ATVs and side-by-sides and gain market share, as we continue to face high year-over-year sales growth comparables. Fourth quarter wholesale sales to Bobcat declined, with Bobcat retail reported down slightly. For the full year 2012, Bobcat total retail increased upper-single digits despite declines in its national account orders. Dealer inventory positions at Bobcat are lean and well-positioned for 2013. Both partners are working hard preparing for the arrival of our co-developed product, which will launch in the first half of 2013. This commercial-targeted vehicles should provide meaningful growth to both Bobcat and Polaris in 2013 and beyond. Military sales declined in the fourth quarter as the challenges and uncertainty of defense budgets caused customers to continue to behave cautiously and defer spending. For the full year 2012, Polaris' military revenue was approximately flat. This short-term sales disappointment notwithstanding, we continue to make meaningful progress in defense. Our new resilient tire and M9 high-performance, lightweight armor technologies will enable us to penetrate new product categories in 2013 and beyond, and we've secured a number of multiyear, multimillion dollar contracts with TACOM, the National Guard and Special Operations Command that will drive future revenue. We have quickly become the preferred platform of choice in the growing unmanned track and wheeled vehicle space and expect continued rapid growth in this strategic growth segment. Despite an ongoing tough external environment, we expect Polaris' defense sales to bounce back and grow significantly in 2013. Snowmobiles. As we communicated in the third quarter call, fourth quarter wholesale sales predictably declined 9% due to revised build timing. For the calendar year 2012, snowmobile revenue increased 1% comprising 9% of total company sales. Though North American snow conditions were unfavorable in the early season, they improved in mid-December and industry retail sales accelerated nicely. For the fourth quarter, the industry declined slightly while Polaris continued to grow share as our retail sales were flat. Season-to-date, the industry is down less than 5% with Polaris down even less. Our model year '13 products have been well received. We remain a clear #1 in the critical Mountain segment, with our industry-leading RMKs, and the return of an all new indie has been a boost to the flatlands. Dealer inventory is in decent shape and we are cautiously optimistic about the better snow conditions generating improved year-over-year first quarter retail before we finalize our 2013, '14 build plan in the spring. On-Road Vehicles and Victory Motorcycles. Polaris' On-Road revenue increased 36% with strength in Victory and nice contributions from both GEM and Goupil. For calendar year of 2012, On-Road revenue jumped up 64%. Victory gained market share again in the fourth quarter with retail sales up modestly in the North American 1400 CC heavyweight motorcycle industry that grew slightly in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2012. We built on our position as the #2 heavyweight OEM with 2012 Victory retail sales growing better than 10x the industry growth rate, resulting in share gains across all segments: cruisers, baggers and touring. The strength and breadth of the Victory dealer network continues to improve with the North American dealer network now over 450 strong and retail sales per store up nicely. To celebrate Victory's 15th anniversary, we recently introduced a new Limited Edition Cross Country Tour model loaded with chrome, billet wheels and tons of electronics, in Antares Red to match the inaugural 1999 V92C that rolled off the Spirit Lake line. Indian business performance remains right on our plan. In December, at the Long Beach International Motorcycle Show, we launched the 2013 Indian Chief Final Edition, the last model from the previous Kings Mountain Indian chief platform, and we began the launch sequence with a groundbreaking Polaris design Model Year '14 Indian motorcycles that will be revealed later this year. We teased our all-new Model Year '14 engine through a unique customer sound booth experience that pounds out the distinctive growl of the new power plant, and earlier this month, at the New York International Motorcycle Show, we introduced an all-new Indian rides app for Apple and Android users that replicates the engine sound with a twist of the wrist. And in March at Daytona Bike Week, we will officially unveiled the all-new Polaris built-from-the-ground-up Indian Motorcycle engine that will power the Model Year '14 Indians into the future. 2013 is the year of Indian, and we are thrilled to restore the first American motorcycle brand to its rightful place in the global motorcycle industry. For 2013, we expect the North American heavyweight industry to continue to grow low-single digits with both Victory and Indian driving significant Polaris retail and market share growth. Our small electric vehicle business, while still in its infancy and under 2% of company sales, our revenues increased over 50% in the fourth quarter. GEM had a solid fourth quarter with revenue up double-digits percent and dealer orders up even more significantly. This was GEM's best quarterly order performance since the fourth quarter of '09 when large government incentives contributed significantly to the upsurge. Goupil continues to battle a difficult European economy, but we have made nice progress on cost and operations, and with our new G5 hybrid product launching in 2013, Goupil is poised for growth. We continue to improve capability and get valuable cycles of learning in the strategically attractive electric vehicle market and we're looking forward to 2013 growth from both GEM and Goupil. Parts, Garments and Accessories. PG&A fourth quarter sales increased 17% driven by double-digit growth in all global regions and across all categories. ORV PG&A sales were particularly robust, up 24% on strong side-by-side related revenue and offsetting modest weakness in snowmobiles. The new side-by-side cab system and related accessories are driving big dollar per unit acceleration and sales penetration. For the full year 2012, we completed another record revenue year in our highest margin business with sales increasing 13%, with strength across each of our PG&A product categories. In the fourth quarter, we acquired KLIM, the market leader in the design, development and distribution of technical riding gear for snowmobiles, off-road and adventure touring motorcycles. With 2012 sales approaching $30 million and a 5-year compounded annual growth rate over 20%, KLIM will further accelerate our growth in our highly profitable PG&A business and turbocharge our apparel portfolio. The KLIM and Polaris brands will remain distinct, although KLIM's Rigby, Idaho facility will become Polaris' Center of Excellence for design and development in the future. For 2013, we expect PG&A sales to outperform overall Polaris company sales. International. International revenue increased 6% in the fourth quarter, driven by Asia Pacific at plus 18% and Latin America at plus 21%, and a small amount of growth from the EMEA. For the full year 2012, international sales rose 9%, with Asia Pacific and Latin America regions up 21%, and the EMEA region up 5%. Victory, PG&A and snowmobiles were the primary drivers of the fourth quarter and 2012 international growth, offsetting modest declines in ORVs. European markets remained weak with both ORVs and motorcycles down to low-double digits for the fourth quarter and for the full year 2012. Polaris continued to win the competitive battle in the fourth quarter for 2012, gaining almost 2 points of share and increasing our #1 position in ORVs. In motorcycles, we grew European retail over 20%, in a market that declined double digits, and we continue to expand our presence and share in Australia. The European snow market is growing, with season-to-date industry sales up mid-single digits and Polaris up almost 10%, and gaining market share. We are investing to win globally. Scott mentioned the new European facility we will soon begin building and our new Eicher joint venture in India is off and running. We are hiring a team, product development is on track and we will break ground on a new plant in 2013. Our key emerging market subsidiaries in Brazil, India and China grew over 50% in 2012 as we developed the powersports market and channels in these economies and Russia is very strong with sales up over 50%. For 2013, we expect international industry markets to improve moderately. We anticipate continued growth and expansion in the a Pacific/Latin America regions, but we believe ORV and motorcycle industries will remain down in Europe due to economic weakness. Operational excellence. LEAN operational excellence initiatives focused on quality costs and speed are delivering margin expansion as fourth quarter gross margins expanded 210 basis points. Higher volume, product cost reductions, pricing and manufacturing realignment savings also contributed, more than offsetting reserves for a more aggressive promotion environment and product mix effects. Further, commodity and currency pressures have stabilized. Our plans continue to hum. For the full year 2012, productivity improved 6%. And for 2013, we are investing the incremental $100 million in new and existing plants across the globe to enhance our foundation for long-term growth. Factory inventory is up 16%, primarily in support of higher retail demand. Inventory turns are flat year-over-year as we continue to invest in customer order fulfillment initiatives that are improving dealer and consumer order response. But with that said, factory inventory is an opportunity with our 2013 LEAN initiatives that we will attack with gusto. We can and we'll do better. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mike Malone, our Chief Financial Officer.