Earnings Labs

PLDT Inc. (PHI)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Sat, Nov 6, 2021

$20.20

-1.17%

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Transcript

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

For today's presentation, we have with us our Chairman, Manuel Pangilinan; Mr. Al Panlilio, our President and CEO; Ms. Anabelle Chua, Chief Finance Officer and Chief Risk Officer; Mr. Shailesh Baidwan, President of Voyager Innovations and PayMaya Philippines; as well as other members of the PLDT management team. At this point, let me turn the floor over to Mr. Panlilio to begin the presentation.

Alfredo Panlilio

Management

Melissa, thank you very much, and good afternoon to all, and thank you for joining us in this call. I'll be reporting some highlights of our Q3 and 9-month performance. Then I will pass it on to Anabelle for a more detailed discussion on the financials, then we go to SB for PayMaya and PayMaya and Maya Bank. So happy to report for Q3 2021 performance for PLDT-Smart, we end the quarter at PHP7.9 billion. This is the highest quarter this year. And after PHP7.5 billion in first quarter, PHP7.7 billion in the second, and the third quarter, PHP7.9 billion, that's PHP786 million income growth, in percent terms 11%. Also happy to report that our net service revenue for the third quarter is also all-time high at PHP46 billion. This is PHP2.3 billion higher than the same period last year of 5%, expenses at PHP21.5 billion, up 3% or PHP0.5 million. And our adjusted EBITDA is also an all-time high for the quarter of PHP24.5 billion. A PHP1.7 billion higher than same period last year or 8%. This is still a 51% margin. Next page, please. For the month end September, September YTD, we're ending the first 9 months at PHP23.1 billion in Telco Core income, which is a PHP2.1 billion income growth compared to previous year or 10%. Service revenues after 9 months, PHP135.9 billion, also an all-time high on net service revenue. Expenses of PHP64.8 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of PHP71.5 billion, an 8% increase or PHP5.1 billion compared to last year. So I just wanted to highlight some of the key levers that we look at to start with. This just shows the strengthening of our position in the following -- these units for whole. Definitely a very good year for Home after 9 months a revenue…

Anabelle Chua

Management

Thank you. Thank you, Al. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our 9-month results presentation. As Al has indicated, total service revenues for the 9-month period came in at PHP135.9 billion, a 7% up year-on-year. How it breaks down, about PHP65 billion from the Individual, PHP35 billion from Home and another PHP35 billion from the Enterprise and International combined. In terms of the growth versus last year, there's a PHP9 billion increase led by Home, which accounted for PHP7 billion out of the PHP9 billion uplift that we saw in the first 9 months. And as Al has mentioned, if we zero in on the fiber-only subcomponent of the home business that's actually growing at a much higher clip, 78% year-on-year registering PHP10 billion increase for the period. Together with the PHP7 billion decrease from Home, we saw another PHP2 billion increase from our Individual business, which is up 3% year-on-year and then PHP600 million from our Enterprise business, which is a 2% year-on-year growth. Next chart, please. Over the 3 quarters of 2021, the increase in the third quarter revenues to PHP46 billion from PHP45 billion in the second quarter and PHP44.8 billion in the first quarter. Compared to the same period last year, it's a 5% growth equivalent to PHP2.3 billion. Again, [indiscernible] Home, which is showing a very impressive 29% increase in the third quarter compared to the same time last year. Enterprise is also showing 2% growth now and reaching a record high of PHP10.7 billion during the quarter. There's more pressure in our Individual business, given the lack of mobility during the pandemic period and the knock-on effect it has had on people's consumer wallets as well as the increased competition that we're starting to see in the market. But although the group was able…

Shailesh Baidwan

Management

Thank you, Anabelle. If we can go to the first slide, please. So just to remind everyone, at PayMaya, we are a digital financial ecosystem, where we serve consumers, we serve enterprises, and we serve communities across our the 3 businesses in PayMaya. Whether you're a first-time account holder or whether you're someone who wants a payment convenience of doing this digitally, we have our consumer business or our PayMaya digital wallet. Whether you're a MSME, who's looking to sell goods out of their house or whether you're a large enterprise who needs an omnichannel payment acceptance solution or you're a government, we provide that through our merchant acquiring business. And if you're not quite ready for your own digital journey as yet, but you still need to do bills payments, and money, top up your airtime, you can go to our on-ground network on Smart Padala and do that. So we are able to move people seamlessly between online and face-to-face. We are able to move, unite the consumer and the enterprise part of the business in a unique way, which creates value propositions and a dataset that is very rich and unique to us. And now we've got the Maya Bank license given to us by BSP. Some key metrics of our performance through the course of 2020, 3 quarters. Our number of registered customers across our consumer, both on the wallet side and our on-ground network is now at 41 million, which is a 2.7x growth over where we were at the start of 2020. When we look at our 3 businesses, and we add that up, the gross transaction value will grow by over 50% through the course of 2021 versus last year. And when we look at our enterprise business, where we are processing payments,…

Manuel Pangilinan

Management

Okay. Thank you, SB. I guess my job is to provide an outlook for the full year 2021 dealing with Core profitability first. I think Anabelle has indicated that we affirm our profit guidance, PHP30 billion for the full year 2021. And so we affirm that for the purpose of this meeting. In terms of EBITDA, we expect to land for the full year at around PHP96 billion [indiscernible] last year. So growth above 10% thereabouts. CapEx, as Anabelle indicated, we will land around PHP88 billion at the lower end of the guidance that we gave when we announced our first half results. And dividends maintained at 60% of core with a look-back situation depending on the cash flows achievement, of course, our profitability for the full year. So okay. Let me -- one last comment on the share price of PLDT because, of course, in recent months, we've seen the upward trend in terms of the share price. We just would like to comment on whether, in fact, the fact that we consider PLDT to be undervalued because just to reference our market value to Convergence market value, which is I think in recent weeks have settled around PHP235 billion and ours at around PHP350 billion, PHP355 billion. So the difference in market value of Converge to PLDT on its own is about PHP120 billion because assuming the value of Home broadband at the level of Converge, which we think itself undervalues the Home broadband business. Because we are in some spaces, at least 50% ahead. And in revenue share, almost twice, the size of our revenues purely on fixed home broadband in relation to Converge. So -- and I think we saw good growth, I think better growth than Converge had shown in recent months, and I think…

A - Melissa Vergel de Dios

Operator

We're now ready to take your questions. [Operator Instructions]. The first one we received is from Arthur Pineda of Citibank. Can you please provide any color on how mobile revenues have trended on a monthly basis in July, August and September? And are we seeing any improvement into October with the lifting of the ECQ?

Alfredo Panlilio

Management

Go ahead.

Manuel Pangilinan

Management

Yes. Actually, for the past 3 days, we're see a little uplift on the top-up side. So I suppose the increased mobility has actually has some effect already on the top ups. Although it's not yet as high as we think as we wanted, but they are increasing. So our -- I guess what we want -- what we think is, as the economy opens up, we will slowly see any increase in mobility and we'll see further increases in the top-ups. We are also seeing some uplift in the postpaid activations as well. So as, I guess, the malls are opening, the more people are visiting the malls. We're seeing more and more people go into the stores to get their postpaid lines.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

Great. The next question is on Maya Bank. Are there any targets on the digital bank front that can be disclosed?

Shailesh Baidwan

Management

We definitely want to first work towards launching it in record times. So we're looking at early part of next year to launch Maya Bank. Although the BSP gives us a year from giving us the license, but we want to get there fast. We would ideally at least be looking at 1 million customers that we will be providing deposit services to, 1 million customers that we were providing loan services to. And then from there, we continue to build out with access to the existing set of customers on MSME and retail consumer side that we have and, of course, across the MVP PLDT ecosystem.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

Related question of PayMaya from German de la Paz, Abacus Securities. What is the dollar amount -- sorry, what is the dollar amount of expected GTV for PayMaya in 2020?

Shailesh Baidwan

Management

We won't share that number just ahead. We are looking at still growing the business, launching a number of new services. So we're talking about growth, like we said this year. And our GTV's very different. If you look at the merchant acquiring business, as you can imagine, the GTV of that is very different from a GTV of a wallet is a very different from a GTV that will be there from a banking customer. So we're looking at a growth of ending this year at 50% over last year, and we want to pass on that trajectory even further and potentially look at doubling our growth through the course of 2022 over 2021.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

Again, from German de la Paz. Just to clarify, PayMaya evaluation from last funding round was $747 million, when was this?

Shailesh Baidwan

Management

When we raised the last within investors was in June this year. So this was the most money valuation.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

And lastly, may I ask for PLDT's stake in PayMaya?

Shailesh Baidwan

Management

Sorry?

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

What is the stake of PLDT in PayMaya?

Shailesh Baidwan

Management

38.5%.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

There's a question. Is the group looking at Starlink or low satellite as an option to enhance data network or will you focus on using traditional towers in these stations?

Alfredo Panlilio

Management

Yes. We also that is satellite, but we will be using more of the traditional at the moment. But there are certain opportunities where this satellite and where revenue is in discussion with them, as we speak.

Manuel Pangilinan

Management

I just may add, I think we are working with various satellite companies since a number of years actually already. Starlink is just one option. They have a very specific solution, which enables existing phones to connect to satellites. So that could be very interesting in particular in areas where we do not have coverage, rural areas, islands and so on and so forth. So it will be a tool in our toolbox, but not necessarily carry a large part of our traffic.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

Your next question comes from Tekwani Morales of IGC Securities. Congratulations on the results. My questions relate to the broadband business and are as follows: Does the company of a target date to complete the migration from copper to fiber and with 100,000 plus new fiber connections per month be sustainable after completion of the migration?

Manuel Pangilinan

Management

So the first question was around the target for the completion of the copper to fiber migration. We do anticipate the completion of copper or fiber migration to be in the first quarter of 2022. So we are on target for that plan. And in terms of do we see that demand will remain -- and the volume is over 100,000 a month to remain sustainable? Actually, our current volume that we saw in September of 114,000 were for new customers only that actually does not include any of the copper to fiber migration. If you look at copper to fiber migration, you would actually add another 23,000 on top of that, right? So we actually are seeing copper to fiber migration as separate capacity. And this capacity, once the copper to fiber migration program has been completed, in the first quarter of next year, we'll actually be using to be able to connect more new customers to our fiber network, right? So we do plan on actually using that additional capacity to be able to connect more new customers to our fiber network.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

Related question on Home broadband. How much larger can the Home broadband margin be?

Manuel Pangilinan

Management

Look, I think if you have a look at fixed line and broadband penetration in the Philippines, the market for fixed line broadband penetration is still quite low. Depending on the number of subs count, if you look at, it's somewhere between 20% and 25%. If you look at other ASEAN markets, fixed broadband penetration is somewhere between 50% and 60%. I think the last time I checked, Vietnam was already sitting at about 60%, with other markets like Thailand is sitting at about 48%. So clearly, when just on a desktop exercise perspective, if you look at that, there is still significant amount of growth available for fixed broadband penetration in the Philippines.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

Next question is from MNP. Could you provide additional color on MNP?

Manuel Pangilinan

Management

Yes, just on MNP, I think, we've got the initial numbers that there are more gross adds to Smart compared to Dito and in Globe but really, the numbers are still very small. Nothing to really talk about. I think the problem is I think it's scaling that switching program. I think it's been very difficult for customers to port out, port in to a new service. So I think regulators have to help here in terms of how we can make that process easier. But yes, it's early stages, but numbers are not huge at this point.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

Next question is from Ken Gotianse of ATRAM. Could you provide some color on the discussions of a possible sale and leaseback of your towers and how that will potentially affect your operations?

Manuel Pangilinan

Management

Well, as you know, we're undergoing a process on the sale and leaseback. Obviously, that will cover us in terms of operations and maintenance that will definitely help us. And I think it's really the value of the towers that we will sell and have that money, I guess, given to PLDT, as we lease back almost at the same level of OpEx that we pay every year. But again, the advantage there as there are more locators in those towers, we also get a discount in our leasing arrangement. So OpEx, hopefully will go lower, but [indiscernible] we will get value for the towers that we will sell upfront.

Anabelle Chua

Management

Let me add, we are also looking at the new build out for our towers to be through the tower cos as well. So we have an inactive engagement with some of the tower companies for the undertaking of the build-out for our -- new requirements for this year, next year. And when we look at it, there's, of course, the cash flow savings from the CapEx avoidance and the onset and even on an NPV basis to the life, there is something like 10% to 15% NPV savings for us, if we undertake the build-out or the new tower rollout through the tower company share arrangement versus building it out.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

The next question, what is your outlook for CapEx for next year?

Alfredo Panlilio

Management

Well, we're still undergoing our budget process. We have not completed that yet. We should have those figures towards our December Board meeting as we present the budget to our Board, but we don't have an indication at this point.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

We have a question on our OpEx. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose by 15% year-on-year to PHP19.5 billion in the third quarter. May I ask the reason for this?

Anabelle Chua

Management

There are many -- I guess, there are many contributors to that. Of course, part of it is in relation to the ramping up activities we have across the businesses. The other thing that, from an OpEx standpoint is higher than prior years has been also the cost of maintaining the networks, including the repair cost, just given a bigger spread in terms of our network footprint, but that is something that we will continue to manage.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

The next question is on the data center business. How big is the hyperscaler market? And when do you expect to see revenues from that?

Manuel Pangilinan

Management

So we're still assessing the total addressable market for the Philippines, but basing it off on markets like Singapore, the hyperscaler markets -- at the data center market specific to Singapore is at about PHP1 billion annually growing at a double-digit clip year-on-year. We see that the potential of the Philippines could be -- that can potentially reach those levels in a couple of years. In terms of when we expect them to come in, they are coming in already. We're talking to a couple. And as part of our new data center, also, we have a goal of landing our first anchor tenant within 2022, in Singapore.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

There are no additional questions in the queue. [Operator Instructions]. Question on 5G. Could you explain your plans for 5G?

Alfredo Panlilio

Management

Well, we're in the early stages of the 5G and also trying to be granular about where the users will be. So it will be a very targeted rollout of 5G for 2022, although we did have a big pickup. I mean, a big increase on 5G towers this year. We will be more granular next year matching that also with the demand and availability of handsets available in the market. So very granular on the [indiscernible].

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

There are no further questions in the queue. Anybody else with questions. Otherwise, we turn the floor over to Mr. Pangilinan for his comments.

Manuel Pangilinan

Management

Well, thank you for joining us for this afternoon's presentation for third quarter results. We look forward to seeing you again early next year for the full year results. We wish you a Merry Christmas. Happy Thanksgiving. Happy Diwali. It's happy or...?

Shailesh Baidwan

Management

Happy Diwali.

Alfredo Panlilio

Management

Thank you, everyone. Thank you.

Melissa Vergel de Dios

Management

That concludes today's briefing. As always, should you have any further questions or clarifications, please reach out to PLDT Investor Relations at pldt_ir_center@pldt.com.ph. Thank you for your participation. Stay safe.