Ron H. Wirahadiraksa
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Frans. Good morning, and welcome to all of you on the call. I will begin by giving you some color on the development in the markets we serve and then walk you through our financial performance for the third quarter. Let me start with healthcare. In the U.S., we are seeing that the recovery of the U.S. economy is challenging. Based on the latest surveys for hospital construction and contrary to earlier estimates, new starts from January to July 2012 were down 18% versus 2011. This typically has an impact on our industry. We remain cautiously optimistic that after we have the U.S. Presidential elections behind us, we will see the market return to modest growth in 2013. The ramification of the Supreme Court ruling on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act add another layer of complexity to the market outlook for next year. It is not yet clear which states will exactly participate in the Medicaid expansion, adding to the gridlock regarding healthcare reform and making it increasingly difficult for hospitals to perform adequate long-term planning. It is important to note that the Medicaid Expansion Act does not become effective until 2014. The court also upheld the medical device excise tax, which will become effective in January 2013, with a 2.3% tax on sales of most medical devices. This tax will be deductible for Philips, and we are looking at all opportunities across our value chain to mitigate the impact of this tax on our business. In Europe, we remain cautious on the economic outlook. Southern Europe continues to be very weak as the austerity measures undertaken in countries such as Italy, Spain and in Greece, significantly affect public spending on healthcare. Market growth for the remaining part of Europe showed the first signs of improvement. However, we remain cautious as economic fundamentals still point towards a subdued outlook for Europe. On a more positive note, the growth economies continue to show good momentum well into the third quarter. Although China's growth has moderated, the mid- to long-term growth drivers for the Chinese healthcare market are still intact. Overall, we maintain our outlook of 4% to 5% growth in the healthcare markets, overall, with challenges in the North American and European markets for the short term. The consumer markets reflect the effects of the overall weakness in the global economy. In the Eurozone, unemployment was flat at the record high rate, while consumer confidence declined to the lowest level in 3 years. Overall, retail sales continue to fall year-on-year. The situation in Southern Europe remains negative. In China, there is increased evidence of slowing growth, with consumer confidence falling for the second consecutive month and growth in retail sales stabilizing. It should be noted that although growth in China is lower, the rate of retail sales growth at well over 10% is still strong compared to other markets. As far as the other growth geographies are concerned, the decline in unemployment in Brazil and Russia has halted. Consumer confidence rates are seeing some declines but are still at clearly higher levels than in mature markets. Retail sales growth in Russia slowed but increased in Brazil, partly boosted by tax cuts. In the U.S., unemployment reached an unexpected low in September, consumers' confidence is showing signs of recovery and retail sales were reported to grow at the end of the quarter. Expectations for the holiday season are mixed, with people remaining cautious and looking for deals. The lighting market in Q3 2012 was slightly up versus Q3 2011 and grew sequentially compared to Q2 2012 as well. This was mainly driven by LED product categories and growth geographies. Recent indicators in North America have been a mixed bag but together point to further sluggish economic growth characterized by uncertainty. Nonresidential construction through July was down 15% compared to a year ago, and it is expected to drop low- to mid-single-digit percent for the rest of the year. By contrast, the outlook for residential construction has been raised by double-digit percent. Western Europe continues to feel downward economic pressure though the German Consumer and Professional Luminaires markets reflect growth. France continues to show moderate growth in lamps categories but we see the market flattening for luminaires. In growth geographies, construction remains strong especially in Southeast Asia, driving growth in the lamps and luminaires markets across categories. The Indian market saw a good growth especially in Consumer Luminaires. In China, decelerating GDP and construction have dampened the lighting market broadly. LED categories continue to show growth unlike conventional categories and luminaires. Global vehicle production in Q3 is estimated to have modestly increased compared to the same period in 2011. Market data indicates that global light vehicle production is expected to slow down in the second half of the year. As a result, it is expected that the second half of 2012 will show slower growth than the first half of the year. Let me now move to the Philips Group results for the third quarter of 2012. Please note that when I refer to adjusted EBITA on this call, this represents EBITA, excluding restructuring charges, other one-off items above EUR 20 million in the year and acquisition-related charges. Comparable sales in the third quarter grew by 5% when adjusted for currency and portfolio changes. Comparable sales in our growth geographies increased double digit in the third quarter. Our growth geographies are defined as all markets, excluding USA, Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan and Israel. Sales from these growth geographies increased to 36% of group revenues, compared to 34% for Q3 last year. Sales in North America grew by 2% in the quarter on a comparable basis, led by Consumer Lifestyle and Healthcare. Europe saw a decline in comparable sales of 2% in the quarter, mainly due to the market-related weakness I spoke about earlier, which significantly affected Consumer Lifestyle. Excluding the decline of Lifestyle Entertainment in Europe, group sales were flat. Healthcare sales were also flat and Lighting sales declined marginally. In the other mature markets, the group saw a 15% increase in comparable sales, with Japan continuing to remain strong with 24% growth and Australia growing by 21%. Reported EBITA was EUR 450 million or 7.3% of sales, which is higher than the EUR 368 million or 6.8% of sales reported for Q3 last year. The restructuring and acquisition-related charges for the third quarter for this year were higher than the third quarter of last year by EUR 54 million. This is mainly due to increased restructuring charges in Lighting, related to the rationalization of the industrial footprint and the overhead cost reduction program. Q3 2012 EBITA was negatively impact by the loss on the sale of industrial assets in Lighting of EUR 34 million. Adjusted EBITA was EUR 562 million or 9.2% of sales in the quarter compared to EUR 392 million or 7.3% for Q3 2011. The improvement in the adjusted EBITA was due to improvement performance -- of performance across the group. Net income of EUR 170 million was EUR 94 million higher compared to Q3 2011, reflecting higher operating earnings and the loss in discontinued operations in Q3 2011 of EUR 54 million. Cash from operating activities for the quarter was an inflow of EUR 651 million. This compares to an inflow of EUR 45 million in Q3 of 2011. The improvement was mainly due to lower working capital, including some payables which moved into Q4 as the quarter ended on a weekend and, of course, also driven the increase by higher earnings. With that summary, let me now walk you through the performance of each of our businesses during Q3. And I will start with Healthcare. Currency-comparable equipment order intake grew 6% in Q3 2012 compared to Q3 2011. The increase in order intake was led by good performance in Europe, which increased by 18% in the quarter, which was driven by large project orders in the Netherlands, United Kingdom and Finland. This is good news as large project orders had come to a standstill for the last several quarters in Europe. Excluding these large orders, order intake in Europe grew low-single digit. Order intake in the growth geographies increased by 9% on a comparable basis. In these geographies, Patient Care & Clinical Informatics recorded double-digit increases in order intake for the quarter, while Imaging Systems grew low-single digit. Russia and the ASEAN region recorded strong double-digit growth. China was at 11%, while LatAm recorded a high single-digit growth. Japan, our second largest market for Healthcare, continued its strong recovery and recorded an impressive order growth in the quarter of over 30%. Currency-comparable order intake declined in North America by 5%, mainly due to a decline in Imaging Systems caused by lower spending both in the government and private sector. We clearly see the uncertainty around the U.S. presidential elections and healthcare reforms, causing hospital administrations to hold on to cash and to be cautious with their ordering. Order intake for Patient Care & Clinical Informatics increased double digits. While for Imaging Systems, it increased by low single digit. On a currency and portfolio comparable basis, Healthcare's year-on-year sales increased 7%. Imaging Systems had double-digit comparable sales increase on Healthcare high single-digit, while Patient Care & Clinical Informatics and Customer Services grew mid-single digit. The growth geographies delivered a comparable sales increase of 14% in the quarter. This was led by Russia, with an increase of around 150%; India around 30%; LatAm around 20%; and China at 10%. Comparable sales in Europe were flat for the quarter, with Southern Europe declining by high single-digit and the rest of Europe growing by 3%. Sales in North America grew by 3% in the quarter, with Imaging Systems, Patient Care & Clinical Informatics and Home Healthcare Solutions all recording mid-single-digit growth. Healthcare reported a third quarter EBITA of EUR 330 million or 13.5% of sales, which is an increase of EUR 69 million compared to Q3 2011 when EBITA was 12.6%. Adjusted EBITA was EUR 330 million or 13.6% of sales, which is above the EUR 263 million or 12.7% of sales in the same period of last year. Positive growth momentum and higher gross margins resulted in the improved earnings for the quarter. Consumer Lifestyle sales, when adjusted for currency and portfolio changes, grew by 3% compared to Q3 of last year. The sales growth momentum continued in Q3 2012 for the growth businesses, which are Personal Care, Health & Wellness, as well as Domestic Appliances, which registered a 10% comparable sales growth. Lifestyle Entertainment suffered a double-digit sales decline in the quarter. The growth geographies grew high single-digit in the quarter, led by LatAm, Russia and the ASEAN region. Sales in North America grew mid-single-digit, while Europe declined by 7%. The decline in Europe was due to Lifestyle Entertainment, as the combined growth businesses in Consumer Lifestyle grew by 3%. Other mature markets, comprising of Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Israel, recorded high single-digit growth in the quarter. The reported EBITA at Consumer Lifestyle improved to EUR 124 million from EUR 62 million in the third quarter of 2011. The adjusted EBITA for the sector for Q3 2012 was EUR 133 million in the quarter or 9.2% of sales compared to EUR 72 million or 5.4% of sales for the third quarter of 2011. The improvement in adjusted EBITA was driven by higher sales in the growth businesses, cost reductions, as well as a significant reduction in the stranded costs related to the Television business from EUR 16 million in Q3 2011 to EUR 7 million in Q3 2012. In Lighting, comparable sales grew by 4% in the quarter compared to Q3 of last year. The increase in sales was led by our growth geographies, where sales grew on a comparable basis by 11%. On a more granular basis, sales in Japan, India, Latin America, Africa and China showed good momentum with strong growth. North America recorded low single-digit sales decline in the quarter. Weak markets in Europe caused low single-digit sales decline in comparable sales for the quarter due to a strong decline in Southern Europe. Sales growth in the rest of Europe for the quarter was flat compared to last year. When taking a deeper look into each of the Lighting businesses, we continue to see strong sales of our LED products with growth of over 50% compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Lumileds and Automotive recorded a strong double-digit growth for the quarter, while Light Sources & Electronics were up low-single digit. Professional Lighting Solutions sales were flat for the quarter compared to the previous year, while Consumer Luminaires sales had a low single-digit decline in sales for the quarter. Reported EBITA at Lighting declined to EUR 47 million from EUR 110 million in Q3 2011. This was mainly due to an increase of EUR 61 million in restructuring costs related to the overhead cost savings program and the rationalization of the manufacturing footprint in the Lighting sector and the loss on the sale of industrial assets of EUR 34 million. Adjusted EBITA was EUR 149 million or 7% of sales, an improvement compared to the EUR 121 million in the third quarter of 2011. Operational improvements in Professional Lighting Solutions and Lumileds have resulted in a sequential improvement of the adjusted EBITA from 6.5% of sales in Q2 2012 to 7% in Q3 2012. Reported EBITA for Innovation, Group & Services amounted to a net cost of EUR 51 million, a decrease of EUR 40 million compared to Q3 2011. Q3 2011 included the negative impact of legal and environmental provisions of EUR 38 million, as well as EUR 17 million of stranded costs related to the TV business. These charges in Q3 have more than compensated for the higher investments related to the Accelerate! program and the lower license revenues for Q3 2012. Adjusted EBITA amounted therefore to a net cost of EUR 53 million, compared to net cost of EUR 64 million in the prior year. Stranded costs related to the TV business have reduced from EUR 17 million in Q2 2011 to EUR 3 million in Q3 2012. Inventory value at the end of Q3 2012 decreased on a currency-comparable basis by EUR 153 million compared to the third quarter of 2011. All sectors reduced their inventory on a comparable basis. Inventory as a percentage of sales improved to 16.7% in the end of Q3 2012 compared to 18.2% in Q3 2011. There was a significant reduction in Consumer Lifestyle, where inventory as a percentage of sales declined by 250 basis points compared to the end of Q3 2011. In Lighting, inventory as a percentage of sales improved by 100 basis points compared to the end of Q3 2011. Healthcare inventories decreased by 160 basis points at the end of Q3 this year after several quarters of increases due to the inventory reduction programs running in that sector. Imaging Systems reduced inventories by 290 basis points, while Patient Care & Clinical Informatics and Home Healthcare Solutions decreased their inventory by 120 and 110 basis points, respectively. Since the commencement of the share buyback program in Q2 2011, we have completed 63% of the EUR 2 billion program at the end of Q3 2012. As mentioned also in the last quarterly call, going forward, we expect to buy back our shares at a rate between EUR 150 million to EUR 300 million a quarter. We will continue to closely monitor the availability of liquidity in the financial markets and our cash position and manage the pace of this program appropriately. I would like to remind you that we have planned a conference call with an update on financial reporting and related matters like pensions, and we do this in December every year. And for this year, it will be on the 3rd of December. Ladies and gentlemen, let me briefly summarize before opening the line to questions. The improved results for the third quarter of 2012 demonstrate further progress on our path towards our 2013 financial targets. We continue to experience strong economic headwinds on a global scale, which affect growth going forward. While we feel the impact of these pressures, we remain confident in our ability to continue improving the operational and financial performance of the company, driven by our Accelerate! program. With that, let me now open the line to your questions, which Frans and I will be happy to answer. Thank you.