Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter-end conference call. P&G would like to remind you that today's discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections. Additionally, the company has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP and other financial measures. Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, Jon Moeller. Jon R. Moeller - Procter & Gamble Co.: - joining me this morning. I'm going to provide an update on company results. David will update us on key strategy and focus areas. We'll close with guidance and then turn to your questions. We continue to make important progress: strong volume and consumption growth, earnings per share at or above target, cash above target, market share is improving. Progress, though room for improvement on all metrics, most notably the top line. Organic volume grew 2% for the year, 3% in Q4. Organic sales growth fell just shy of rounding up to 2%. Eight of 10 global categories grew organic sales. In aggregate, these categories grew at over a 3% pace. Online sales grew 30% for the year to nearly $4.5 billion in sales, approaching 7% of our total business, roughly the size of the next two largest consumer e-commerce businesses combined. We added nearly $1.2 billion of e-commerce sales in fiscal 2018 after adding about $1 billion in sales in fiscal 2017. All-channel consumption grew at a faster rate than sales, between 2% and 3%. As a result, our share positions improved. Fiscal 2018 market share trends improved in eight of the 15 largest countries versus the prior year, with fourth quarter trends better than fiscal year average in 10 of 15. Market share trends advanced in seven of 10 global product categories, with improvement as the year progressed. We held or built e-commerce value share in eight of 10 product categories. We made good progress in our two largest markets. U.S. all-outlet value share improved from a 30 basis point decline in fiscal 2017 to flat for fiscal 2018 to 30 basis points share growth in April-June. Seven of 10 product categories grew all-outlet value share in Q4. Seven of 10 categories improved their share trends on a past-six-months versus 12-month basis, and on a past-three-month versus six-month basis. All-outlet unit consumption grew 2.5% for the full year in the U.S. and was up more than 3% in the fourth quarter. We continued the strong turnaround in China, improving from a 5% sales decline in fiscal 2016 to 1% growth in 2017 to 7% organic sales growth last year. Sales growth accelerated as the year progressed, growing 6% in the first half and 8% in the second half, including 10% organic sales growth in Q4. Six of seven categories are holding or growing sales, up from one of seven categories two years ago. We generated about $1.6 billion in e-commerce sales, nearly 30% of the China business. Our global top line was challenged by several unexpected disruptions. In Brazil the worst transportation strike in more than 20 years, virtually shutting down shipments for two weeks; Saudi Arabia and the Gulf markets contracted significantly due to sharp increases in utility and gas prices, higher taxes, and an exodus of foreign workers; renewed trade restrictions with Iran; Algerian bans on imported products; severe consumption contraction in Egypt and Nigeria due to high inflation; and decreasing affordability following more than 100% currency devaluation. Organic sales in these markets declined 13%, off a $2.2 billion base, a 40 basis points drag on companywide organic sales growth. Global retail inventory reductions took an additional 30 to 40 basis points out of sales as customers managed cash and purchases shifted to e-commerce. As you know, we've been pointing to challenges in two categories: Grooming and Baby Care. While there's still more work to do, we've made significant progress on both. Global Shave Care share was in line with prior year, with Braun share up 0.5 point. We improved U.S. male blades and razors value share from a 4-point decline in fiscal 2017 to nearly flat for fiscal 2018, to over a 1-point increase in the fourth quarter. We launched Gillette 3 and Gillette 5 razors in the U.S. last quarter to strengthen our position at opening price points for male shaving systems. We've revamped and strengthened our online program, Gillette On Demand, increasing the rate of new user recruitment and retention. We're currently growing volume share and value share on a past three- and six-month basis. U.S. Male Shave Care delivered 3% volume growth last fiscal year with male shaving systems up 5%. Venus all-outlet share of female blades and razors in the U.S. grew 0.5 point last year and 1.5 points in the fourth quarter. We face new challenges on Gillette, as a value-share competitor is expanding in-store distribution in the U.S., and its competitors are expanding their direct-to-consumer propositions in Europe. We're funding strong plans to protect the business, but competitive actions are likely to have at least some impact. Baby Care had a challenging year, but we significantly strengthened our long-term position. China sales and share trends improved sequentially through the year. In the fourth quarter, the business grew organic sales mid-single digits, and share progress accelerated, returning Pampers to overall share leadership in Mainland China. Pampers more than doubled its share of premium-tier diapers last year, extended its share lead on pants, and took value share leadership in e-commerce. Baby Care sales in India, an important growth market for the future, grew 34%. U.S. Baby Care was challenged by aggressive private-label pricing that primarily impacted the Luvs brand, retail inventory adjustments, smaller retail-funded promotions, and a comparison against a base period that included the successful relaunch of Pampers Easy Ups Training Pants. We've strengthened our consumer value proposition on Luvs, with value share starting to stabilize. We introduced Pampers Pure Protection, diapers and Aqua Pure Wipes in April. In just a few weeks, we achieved share leadership in the naturals segment and tracked channels. Consumer reviews of Pampers Pure have been very strong, and we expect momentum to grow as we drive awareness and trial. We continue to build on the success of our diaper pant products. Pampers is the global share leader in pant-style diapers, with nearly a 30% share of a form growing at a double-digit rate, positioning us well as the market continues to shift towards pants. New premium-tier innovation and new pack sizes are launching this quarter that include a price increase on most items, equivalent to a 4% increase across the North America Pampers diaper business. Challenges remain on both Grooming and Baby Care and competition's strong, but we're much better positioned as we enter fiscal 2019 than we were heading into 2018. Moving to the bottom line, our going-in fiscal year guidance called for core earnings per share growth of 5% to 7%. Despite significant cost challenges nearly double what we expected at the start of the year, increased transportation costs, and increased investments in consumer and customer value, core earnings per share was $4.22 for the fiscal year, up 8% above the high end of the going-in guidance range and at the high end of our mid-year revised range. Commodities and transportation costs were a $500 million after-tax headwind, a 5-point drag on core earnings per share growth. Foreign exchange was a modest earnings help for the year. Tax reform was around a $150 million benefit. Core operating margin contracted 50 basis points as pricing lagged commodity cost increases. We've grown core operating margin 270 basis points over the preceding four fiscal years, 610 points excluding foreign exchange, and expect to resume margin growth as pricing is implemented to offset commodity costs and as more productivity savings come online. Productivity improvements generated 260 basis points of savings for the year that we just completed. Our current 21.6% core operating profit margin is among the highest in the industry, and we continue to hold advantages in below-the-line costs. We borrow at some of the most favorable rates in the industry. We have a tax rate that is among the industry's lowest. All of this leaves us with a core after-tax profit margin of nearly 17%, one of the highest after-tax margins in the industry, with three years of the current productivity program still ahead of us. Cash flow remains dependably strong, with adjusted free cash flow productivity of 104%, well above our going-in target of 90%. We raised the dividend 4%, growing it for the 62nd consecutive year. We paid out more than $7 billion in dividends and repurchased $7 billion of stock, returning more than $14 billion in value to shareowners. Over the last 10 years, we've returned more than $120 billion in dividends and share repurchase, greater than 100% of adjusted net earnings. Our current dividend yield of 3.6% is nearly a full point higher than the Consumer Staples SPDR Fund average. Detailed fourth quarter results are provided in our press release, so I'll just hit a few of the highlights. Organic volume up 3%. Organic sales were up over 1%. Core earnings per share were $0.94, up 11% for the quarter. All-in earnings per share was $0.72, including $0.14 per share of non-core restructuring charges and $0.09 per share of early debt retirement costs. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 158%. In summary, core earnings per share growth above the going-in guidance range and at the high end of the revised range despite significant commodity and transportation cost increases; cash ahead of target; strong consumption with improving share trends; sales growing but modestly below our target range; progress in many areas, but again importantly room to improve on all metrics, particularly organic sales growth. David? David S. Taylor - Procter & Gamble Co.: I'd like to add some perspective on our results, especially the top line sales and share growth, as sales growth was softer than we want but share is showing why I am confident the interventions are working and moving us forward in a sustainable way. We have more brands, categories, and countries growing than we did last year or the year before. The trends over time are very clear. Importantly, the improvements are driven by the strategic interventions and plans, starting with interventions to improve the superiority of our products, packages, communications, go-to-market, and value, both consumer and customer. I'd like to provide some highlights on the progress on brands and markets, and then go into more detail on the actions and the impact of our choices. First some quick highlights. As Jon, said eight of 10 product categories in 18 of our top 25 brands held or grew organic sales in fiscal 2018. SK-II grew more than 30%. Downy grew sales double digits, driving mid-single digit growth on the fabric enhancer category and over a point of value share growth over the past three, six, and 12 months. Eight brands grew organic sales mid to high single digits, including Ariel, Always, Olay, Oral-B, Old Spice, Braun, Febreze, and Swiffer. Twelve of our top 15 countries held or grew organic sales in fiscal 2018, with six of those growing mid-single digits or faster. Turkey and India each delivered strong double-digit growth, with all categories in each country growing sales. Japan grew mid-single digits, with value share up over 0.5 point for the year and up more than a point the past six and three months. Mexico grew organic sales in mid-single digits. Twenty-six of our largest category-country combinations held or grew market share, up from 21 of 50 last year. As Jon has said, we have more work to do to accelerate results. We clearly are operating in a very dynamic environment. Changing government policies including tax, trade, and privacy; retail transformation; disruption of the media ecosystem; rising input and transportation costs; and foreign exchange headwinds; with highly capable multinational and local competitors determined to win. We are accelerating changes to meet these challenges and further improve results. This will enable us to spot and capitalize on opportunities, and identify and fix issues faster than we ever had in the past. We will be the disruptors in our industry. We're investing to improve superiority, our margin of advantage. We're making P&G ever more productive. We are structuring an organization and building a culture that continues to put us in front of change, riding the wave of this dynamic environment versus being hit by it. We're leading disruption across the value chain, innovation, supply systems, consumer communication, retail execution, customer and consumer value, to consistently and sustainably grow sales, margins, and cash. And next I'd like to offer a few points on superiority, which is really our basis to win. We've made a deliberate choice to invest in the superiority of our products and packages, retail execution, marketing, and value, and not just in the premium tier, but in each price tier where we compete. We need to strengthen the long-term health and competitiveness of our brands. To do this, we've raised our standards for each of these superiority drivers. In brand-country combinations where we judge ourself to be noticeably superior in at least four of the five elements, we deliver meaningful improvement in key business success measures, including household penetration, which is the number of people that buy our brands each year; market growth, critical to us and our retailers; value share growth; sales growth; and profit – all 80% of the time. When we are superior in just three or fewer of the superiority elements, we grow all of the business success measures 0% of the time. A few examples of where superiority is driving growth include our Fabric Care business, where in the U.S. we grew organic volumes 6% behind superior innovations like Tide PODS, Gain Flings, and fabric enhancer scent beads. These innovations have been the driving force of Fabric Care market growth. Unit-dose detergents and scent beads have driven Japan Fabric Care to a record organic sales growth of 9%. In Europe, Fabric Care organic sales grew 5% for the second consecutive year, driving category growth and delivering 27 consecutive months of share growth. Feminine Care has delivered 11 consecutive quarters of organic sales growth, with the combination of outstanding product innovations and packaging on Always pads and Always Discreet in adult incontinence. They've developed compelling marketing campaigns that are building brand equity and driving trial. They're growing the category, earning strong distribution and display of new items. They're driving trade-up to premium variants that consumers view as an excellent value for the product performance they receive. Turning to Skin Care, Olay and SK-II are serving different segments of the skin care markets, and both are delivering strong results by improving superiority. SK-II sales have grown for 15 consecutive quarters at an average rate of over 20%, including 30% last fiscal year. SK-II's superior product is based on a proprietary formula that works to dramatically rejuvenate the skin's appearance. It's a product that solves problems for consumers in a noticeable way. It's presented in prestige packaging that builds brand equity and consumer confidence in the product. SK-II's marketing campaign has accelerated growth of new users by connecting to them on a more emotional level while reinforcing product benefits. Excellent retail execution, in stores and online, leverage a rich consumer database in technology like our state-of-the-art skin analysis tool, which we call the Beauty Imaging System, to make a personal connection with consumers. The combination of these support SK-II's premium price and value for the consumer. Olay in China has delivered five consecutive quarters of double-digit organic sales growth behind superiority across all touch points. We launched Olay Cell Science last year, Olay's first-ever super peptide formula, delivering visible skin transformation in 28 days. We've upgraded Olay packaging to prestige-like quality and attractiveness. We've completely revamped our Olay beauty counselor program. We've reduced the number of beauty counters and upgraded the remaining counters with higher and tighter standards. Our "Fearless of Age" campaign, with an empowering message for consumers, has driven consumption and has contributed to strong e-commerce sales that are up 80% fiscal year to date and has grown Olay's market share. And we've talked about the work we're doing to respond to a changing world and changing consumer needs, including increased demand for natural and sustainable products. We've now introduced products in nearly every category that address these emerging consumer needs. Tide purclean, Gain Botanicals, Dreft purtouch, ZzzQuil PURE Zzzs, Febreze ONE, Whisper Pure Cotton, and more recently we just launched Pampers Pure Protection diapers and Aqua Pure Wipes. Our naturals segment offerings quadrupled sales in fiscal 2018. We expect to more than double sales again in 2019. We're in this game and in this important segment to win. We're augmenting organic innovations with acquisitions: Native, a natural deodorant, and Snowberry skin care, a naturals brand based in New Zealand. We recently announced our agreement to acquire First Aid Beauty, a full line of prestige-quality skin care products that deliver superior skin health solutions specifically designed for sensitive skin and skin conditions like redness, irritation, and eczema. We are leveraging lean innovation practices to create and extend product and packaging superiority faster and more cost-effectively than ever before. And Pampers Pure is a good example. It reached the market in half the time of a typical product innovation in a very capital-intensive diaper category. We're using the lean approach to explore how we can solve new problems for consumers, addressing new jobs to be done. We have several new products in various stages of market testing right now and we've brought them to that point at a fraction of the time and investment it would have taken us without this lean approach. We're making a big move to more deliberately consider and pursue external monetization of P&G innovation in noncompeting industries. And occasionally where we think the benefit of sharing the innovation will enhance value creation and the societal benefit can be meaningful, we may make the technology available within our competitive set. I'll give you an example: Air Assist packaging that we invented for e-commerce shipping of liquids that delivers significantly better visual impression and end use experience, and it reduces plastic usage by 50%. We just started licensing this technology broadly. We're doing the same with other P&G innovations that provide significant sustainability benefits. We invented a breakthrough technology to revolutionize the plastic recycling industry. It separates color, odor, and other contaminants from recycled polypropylene plastic to purify it into a nearly new-quality resin. By allowing others to utilize and commercialize this technology, we'll lower the cost, unlock value, and improve environmental sustainability of entire industries. In addition to products and packages, we're improving the superiority of consumer communication and retail execution, as well as consumer and customer value. At this year's Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity, P&G and our agencies won 26 Lions for the outstanding work on P&G brand campaigns, including two of the Grand Prix honors for the "It's a Tide Ad" campaign, which launched during the Super Bowl, and "The Talk," which started an important conversation about racial bias. We used the forum to announce further commitments to advancing diversity and gender equality in our advertising. Now, an external measure of our improved retail execution is the global Advantage Monitor Report, an independent retailer assessment of manufacturers across seven key focus areas. Our objective is to be ranked number one overall and the top third versus competition in all areas. For the third straight year, we were number one ranked globally, with the highest number of countries ranking P&G as the number one manufacturer. We also ranked number one in all seven practice areas for the second year in a row, with noticeable improvements in the categories of Business Relationship and Support, importantly Category Development, Supply Chain, and Customer Service. We've done this by improving our capability to take faster action with customers and align our people with the categories they sell. We've increased investments to improve retail execution, distribution assortment and display, and consumer and customer value, all important elements of our superiority strategy. We're making good progress on extending our margin of advantage and increasing the quality of execution, but we face highly capable competitors who continue to innovate their products and business models. Addressing these challenges and extending our product and package advantages, superior execution, and consumer and customer value will require continued investment. The need for this investment and the need to drive balanced top and bottom line growth, including margin expansion, underscores the importance of productivity. We are driving cost savings and efficiency improvement in all facets of our business, approaching the midpoint of our second five-year, $10 billion productivity program. We've consistently delivered $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion in annual cost of goods sold savings. I expect we'll be at the high end of the range again this fiscal year. Another area of savings is the elimination of substantial waste in the media supply chain. A year ago, we highlighted the need for media transparency, with five calls to action; one viewability standard; third-party measurement verification; transparent agency contracts; fraud elimination; and brand safety. The entire industry stepped up, including strong partnerships with Google and Facebook to take action on their platforms. The progress has been impressive, about 90% complete on delivering the appropriate standards and measurements. These efforts enabled us to cut waste and reduce media cost by 20%. In addition, we have eliminated waste related to excessive frequency. A deeper look at third-party data indicated that some consumers were being reached by our ads 10 to 20 times in a month, significantly higher than our suggested average of three. We reduced excess frequency and reinvested these savings to increase media reach, the number of consumers seeing our ads, by about 10% and trial building activities by 50%. We see further opportunity moving from wasteful mass marketing to mass one-to-one brand-building enabled by data and technology. In China, where 70% of our media is digital and 30% of our sales are in e-commerce, we have one of the largest data management platforms in the country, which we use for consumer analytics. We can effectively manage frequency and engage people when and where it matters. We saved 30% on digital spending in China while increasing digital reach by 60%. We're reinventing advertising from mass clutter to less doing more. For example, Olay China was running up to six different ads at a time and changing ads every two months. We now focus on one highly effective ad and stick with it over time. With fewer ads and lower frequency, we focus on creating deeper one-to-one engagement by improving in-store presence. With these interventions, Olay China has delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with media spending down 50% over the past two years. With our access to data and analytics and experienced purchasing professionals, we can bring more media buys in house. We're returning to one-stop shops where it makes sense, reuniting media and creative. We're implementing a fixed and flow model, reducing the number of agencies on fixed retainers, while flowing creative resources in and out on an as-needed basis. These changes not only reduce the number of agencies and save money, but lead to better quality, greater creativity, and faster ad development cycle times. We've delivered nearly $1 billion of savings in advertising agency fees and production costs over the last four years. We see more savings potential in these areas, along with more efficiency in media delivery. We expect the majority of these savings to be reinvested in more effective delivery of ads to more consumers. We're continuing to drive savings in the organization, redeploying resources closer to customers and customers, improving the efficiency and effectiveness of our business to operate at the speed of the market. We're focused on cost productivity and cash. We've made great progress on working capital. Over the past five years, we've improved receivables by three days, inventory by 10 days, and payables by more than 30 days. We're driving out cost in inventory with our supply network transformation. We're making progress toward our vision of synchronizing the supply chain with real-time, point-of-sales data with the consumer purchase triggering updates to our manufacturing schedules and orders of materials to suppliers. Our six new mixing centers in North America are enabling faster customer response times and optimize mixed product loads to improve customer service levels. P&G consistently holds best-in-class receivables positions. We're making further improvements by leveraging technology, using robotic process automation to digitize key elements of our work process. Over the last three years in North America, we've delivered $100 million in savings and improved cash flow by reducing days outstanding by more than a day while simultaneously improving productivity, reducing roll-off (29:19) by 30% and organizational cost by 50%. An important cash productivity project has been supply chain financing, which we continue to expand. This program, which is a win for suppliers and for P&G, has yielded nearly $5 billion in cash in the five years we've been driving it. We improved payables by five full days last year on a constant currency basis. Now, alongside the productivity work, we're making needed organization structure and culture changes to position us to win in the changing retail and competitive landscape. We're moving more resources into the businesses and closer to the consumers we serve with higher accountability, more agility, and greater speed. We're simplifying organization structure and clarifying responsibility and accountability. We're tailoring the organization to win by category and by market. One great example is Greater China, moving from minus 5% sales in fiscal 2016, all the way to plus 7% in fiscal 2018, behind China-specific innovations, more on-the-ground resources, and better execution across all trade channels at the speed of China. We can't afford this level of on-the-ground resources by category in all markets. The direction in smaller markets has changed from every category managing low-level activities in each country, to each category building a framework at the start of the year and enabling the local market experts to run the business consistent with those plans. The Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and distributor markets group is a great example. The group has accelerated organic sales growth from double-digit declines to strong growth over the last year. We're supplementing our internal talent with skilled, experienced external hiring to improve category mastery. We're strengthening compensation and incentive programs. A year ago, we increased the granularity of annual bonus awards, moving from about 20 bonus pools to over 100, tying incentives closer to results individuals deliver. Last December, we announced that the board's Compensation & Leadership Development Committee modified the performance stock program available to our top 200 or so leaders to include relative sales growth metrics and a total shareholder return modifier to ensure awards reflect performance versus external competitive benchmarks. These changes go into effect this fiscal year. Last month we announced further adjustments to the annual bonus program, increasing the percentage of total compensation at risk, increasing the weighting of business unit results versus company results, now weighted 70% business and 30% company versus 50%-50% in the past. We've widened the payout factors for the business unit and the company components to 0% to 200% of target and increased the number of people participating in the program. Each of these organization and culture changes are aimed at creating a company designed to win in today's market, with today's consumer, at the speed of the market: more agile, more accountable, more efficient, more productive. Our focus on superiority, enabled by a strong productivity cost savings program and supported by an improved organization and culture, will yield faster growth, higher margins, and strong cash generation. I'll turn it back to Jon to cover the outlook for fiscal 2019. Jon R. Moeller - Procter & Gamble Co.: The dynamic macro environment from this past fiscal year – geopolitical impacts on markets, tariffs, intense competition, rising input costs, headwinds from FX – will continue to confront us in fiscal 2019. We've attempted to construct guidance ranges that reflect this reality at their midpoints and through the range. We expect to make further progress on market share, but there will widely continue to be a gap between retail sales and P&G sales as trade inventories continue to contract, until we annualize more of the investments we've made over the last year and until new price increases are reflected on our results. We're taking a price increase of around 4% on Pampers diapers in North America. Just yesterday, we began notifying customers across North America that we're taking a list price increase on Bounty, Charmin, and Puffs brands, which averages around 5% across the category on an annual basis. Bounty and Charmin pricing will be effective October 31, and Puffs in February. As commodity prices and foreign exchange rates continue to move, we'll take pricing when the degree of cost impact warrants it and competitive realities allow it. There is uncertainty and will be volatility with these pricing moves. They will negatively impact consumption. We'll have to adjust as we go and as we learn. Against this backdrop, we're currently expecting organic sales growth in the range of 2% to 3% for fiscal 2019. We expect organic sales growth to be driven by organic volume growth. Pricing will start the year as a drag on sales growth but should turn positive by the end of the fiscal year. All-in sales growth is forecast in the range of in line to up 1% versus last year. This includes a headwind of about 2 points from the combination of foreign exchange and acquisitions and divestitures. The all-in outlook also includes the impact of lost sales from the dissolution of the personal healthcare joint venture with Teva at the start of the fiscal year and the assumption that we'll close the acquisition of Merck's OTC business at the end of the calendar year. Our bottom line guidance is for core earnings per share growth of 3% to 8%. This range includes a $900 million after-tax headwind from the combination of foreign exchange rates and commodity costs, $0.5 billion from FX, and the balance from commodities. At the midpoint of the range, fiscal year core earnings per share guidance is $4.45 per share. Excluding the macro impacts, the low, mid, and top of the core earnings per share range each reflect double-digit earnings per share growth. Interest expense, interest income, and non-operating income will be a net drag of about 2.5 points on core earnings per share growth. We estimate the core effective tax rate will be in the range of 19% to 20% for the year, adding about 2.5 points to core earnings per share growth. This tax rate is just 2 points lower than we first projected when we discussed the impacts of U.S. tax reform, given we have now had the time to fully assess the nuances of the new laws. We expect diluted share count to be at 2 percentage points lower in fiscal 2019. We plan to deliver another year of 90% or better adjusted free cash flow productivity. This includes CapEx in a range of 5% to 5.5%. We'll continue our strong track record of cash return to shareholders. We increased our dividend in April, as I said earlier, for the 62nd consecutive year. We expect to pay over $7 billion in dividends and repurchase up to $5 billion of stock in fiscal 2019. The shares repurchase range factors in the cash required to complete the acquisition of Merck's OTC business during the year and cash spent on other deals. Our guidance is based on current market growth rates, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates. Significant currency weakness, commodity cost increases, or additional geopolitical disruptions are not anticipated within this guidance range. As you consider the quarterly profile of your sales and earnings estimates, please keep in mind the pricing dynamics I described earlier. We'll mitigate more of the commodity and FX headwind in the second half of the year. Productivity savings should build as the year progresses. As a result we expect somewhat stronger organic sales growth in the second half. Bottom line results will be pressured most in Q1 and improve throughout the year. Now I'll hand it back to David for some quick closing comments. David S. Taylor - Procter & Gamble Co.: While the external environment presents many challenges, we're making important progress, and we're accelerating the pace of change. Our efforts to extend our margin of competitive superiority, to drive productivity savings to fund investments for growth and enhance our industry-leading margins, to simplify our organization structure and increase accountability are all aimed at one thing: delivering balanced top and bottom line growth that creates value of the short, mid, and long term. We know we have more work to do, but we're up to the challenge, and we're committed to take the actions needed to win. And with that, Jon and I are happy to take your questions.