Terry Lillis
Analyst · KBW.
As we talk about the assumptions, there's more to it than just simply the interest rate assumptions. We look at all the experience adjustments in our annual actuarial review that we do, and if you recall, if you recall in 2012 and 2015, we took a look at our long-term interest rate assumption and we brought those long-term ultimate rates down, but probably more importantly, we changed the trajectory in order to get to that longer term rate. We went from a relatively short period of time to over 10 years in order to get to it. Now, you're very well aware that the long-term interest rate assumption really varies by product that we have and we'll be across the yield curve and it will also reflect not only what the risk free rate is, but it will also have an impact for the spread that we have, the default rate goes into the assumption which we don't disclose any of that information as for pricing and proprietary purposes, but to try to give you maybe a little bit more insight in terms of using as a proxy, a proxy of the yield curve, we talk about the 10-year treasury, and that seems to be a pretty good proxy to use. A year ago when the 10-year treasury was about 2%, we talked about basically a 25 basis points increase to that rate over a 10-year period. Now, the expectation, then was that we would be up by 25 basis points this year, but as you're very well aware, instead of going up by 25 basis points, it went down by 50 basis points or so, the 10-year treasury. However, as we look in terms of our forecast into the future, which everybody will have a forecast as to what they think. We take into consideration what we're hearing in the industry, what we're hearing from rating agencies, what we are hearing from auditors, what we are hearing from different groups, economists, central banks, investments, we take all of those things into consideration, and we feel very comfortable where we are at this point in time. We have actually moved out and keeping that time period, that 10-year time period in order to get to our long-term rate consistent. But we're from a different starting point, so you'll look at going out into the future, what we're hearing anecdotally is that others are starting to increase their trajectory or their time period as well but still we feel that our ultimate rate as well as our time period in order to get to the rate, we're very comfortable with that at this point in time.