Jon Bortz
Analyst · Evercore ISI
Thanks, Ray. Since Ray covered our second quarter performance in detail, I thought I'd step back and provide a more high-level view of both the industry and Pebblebrook. So let's start with the industry's performance in the second quarter. As a reminder, the industry setup was very favorable in Q2. Benefits we expected from better holiday calendar, a uniquely active major events calendar and a reconnection between GDP growth and industry demand growth. They all occurred in the second quarter. Going into the quarter, our concern revolved around the potential for geopolitical or policy events that would negatively impact the economy and travel. Fortunately, the conflict in the Middle East and constantly changing trade policies have not yet had a negative impact on the economy or U.S. travel in general so far this year. As a result, industry demand growth was healthy in the quarter and with little new supply being added, occupancies rose and ADR growth accelerated due to the better setup, more compression days, less price sensitivity by higher-end customers, in particular, all of which led to more pricing confidence. All of the major hotel demand segments remained favorable. Group, corporate transient and leisure travel all grew weekdays and weekends alike. We even saw the international travel balance improve in June. Inbound travel turned positive for the first time in quite a while, presumably helped by World Cup visitors, while outbound travel declined. Both sides of that provide benefits for U.S. hotels, more foreign visitors coming in and more Americans staying home. For Pebblebrook, as Ray described in detail, we saw the same industry benefits in Q2 and more, even though we had soft convention calendars in a number of our major markets. During the second quarter, in the quarter, for the quarter pickup was very strong, exceeding last year by $8.4 million. We haven't seen any increase in group cancellations or attrition and attendance levels for group meetings have been more predictable than last year. We continue to watch for signs of weakening, but pickup in and for the month, quarter and year has remained favorable. World Cup delivered a modest benefit to room revenues. We estimate an increase of between $1.5 million and $2.5 million or roughly 60 to 100 basis points for the quarter in RevPAR. The incremental World Cup demand was largely offset by corporate group and transient business that stayed away due to higher rates and many booking restrictions. So the net room benefit came primarily from rate, not occupancy. This also explains the slight June occupancy dip Ray mentioned. The change in mix from group to transient, unfortunately also had a negative impact on food and beverage revenues in our match markets, particularly banquet and catering, which declined on a year-over-year basis and offset much of the room revenue gain. In total, we estimate the net benefit to hotel EBITDA from World Cup was between $500,000 and $1 million, a relatively minor benefit overall, but a benefit nonetheless. Turning back to the industry outlook with a strong economy that remains resilient and with corporate profit growth at high levels and accelerating, there are fundamental reasons to be encouraged about positive industry trends continuing in the second half of this year. However, we remain concerned about potential negative impacts from the protracted and widening Middle East conflict, policy changes and geopolitical instability and the real possibility of another potential government shutdown this fall. Given the strong operating performance in Q2 and with July continuing that trend, we're increasing our industry RevPAR growth outlook to a range of 3.5% to 4.5%. As we look out beyond this year, we believe we're at the beginning of a strong multiyear up cycle for the hotel industry. I think we can now confidently forecast that supply should remain very limited through most of the rest of this decade. We're at the beginning of a major multiyear capital investment cycle related to both AI and the reshoring of manufacturing, and we have another huge business investment cycle right behind this one with the creation and build-out of the robotics industry. We also expect very significant and growing benefits from the massive wealth that has been created over the last 15 years for both investors and employees and from the largest transfer of wealth in global history as the baby boomers begin to pass on the wealth they've amassed. We believe the prospects for healthy multiyear demand growth have never been stronger or clearer in the last 30 years, nor has supply growth been so limited at the same time. These are incredibly positive multiyear fundamentals. The multiyear setup is very good, just like this year's setup was very good. Of course, a lot of things could still go wrong as they did last year. Before turning to our Q3 and updated full year outlook, I want to spend a few minutes on why we're increasingly constructive about 2027 and the broader multiyear setup. For 2027, we believe the strong demand and supply fundamentals should outweigh any headwinds related to difficult comparisons to this year's numbers. There are a number of reasons for this view. First, we expect the economy to remain strong and potentially accelerate as business capital investments ramp further next year and corporate profit growth remains at high levels. Second, we believe the wealth effect will provide a growing positive impact on spending and travel. Third, while we have a strong holiday calendar this year, it's just as favorable in 2027. In addition, while the industry benefited meaningfully in June and early July from World Cup and America 250, we expect demand to materially outpace supply next year, which will drive occupancies higher, creating more compression and greater pricing power throughout 2027, which should more than offset the loss of this year's event-related benefits. And finally, we ultimately expect the international inbound outbound travel imbalance to reverse and it could occur next year if the positive experiences foreign travelers had at the World Cup and traveling throughout the U.S. and the very favorable media coverage to the World Cup activities translate as they normally do into increased future travel to the host country. A more positive impression of the U.S. compared to all the previous negative media about our country should help increase travel to the U.S. from abroad. For Pebblebrook in 2027, we should continue to see significant growth from the recoveries in our urban markets, led by San Francisco and Los Angeles, coupled with more favorable convention calendars in San Diego and Boston that are expected to significantly improve the performance of those markets next year. We also have a number of significant events next year, including the Super Bowl moving from San Francisco to Los Angeles, NCAA Men's Basketball Regional Finals in L.A., the NFL Draft in Washington, D.C., the Star Wars 50th anniversary celebration in L.A., the Major League Baseball All-Star game in Chicago and a significant amount of expected pre-Olympic travel into L.A. We should also see further upside from our redeveloped properties as they gain additional share. And finally, our resorts should benefit from the ongoing K-shaped economy and the growing wealth of the higher-end consumer. While the Super Bowl won't be in San Francisco next year, we continue to expect strong RevPAR growth in the city as citywides continue to return, albeit at lower rates than the Super Bowl, and corporate transient travel should grow significantly at higher rates as corporate growth in San Francisco continues to boom. We also expect leisure travel to see further increases as the impression of the city's environment has turned positive over the last year, and the city has been a showcase this year during major events. Turning back to this year. Q3 is off to a great start with July proving to be stronger than we expected. Short-term pickup has surprised to the upside, and we think this indicates that summer vacation travel is starting strong, continuing the positive leisure trends from Q2. Having July 4 fall on a Saturday provided a big lift to our portfolio overall and probably a much bigger lift than the weekend related America 250 events. Group pace for the third quarter is also favorable. Corporate travel growth remains strong and leisure travel is accelerating and allowing us to average higher prices through less discounting, fewer promotions and reduced use of lower-priced wholesale channels. Based on preliminary results through the 25th, July RevPAR is on pace to grow between 7% and 8% over last year. However, we're not prepared to extrapolate July's unusually strong short-term pickup across the entire quarter. Our Q3 range preserves a prudent allowance for shorter booking windows, potential macroeconomic and policy-related volatility and the impact of geopolitical events. For Q3, our outlook assumes same-property RevPAR growth of 1% to 3%, same-property hotel EBITDA of $100.5 million to $104.5 million, adjusted EBITDA of $92.5 million to $96.5 million and adjusted FFO per share of $0.48 to $0.52. When we look at our pace for the second half of the year, as of the end of June, room revenues were pacing ahead of same time last year by 5.5%, which is a total of $10.7 million. About 80% of this revenue pace advantage is being driven by transient with the remaining 20% in group. If pickup for the second half of the year equals last year's pickup, it would translate to RevPAR growth equal to roughly 2.4% in the second half. To put these numbers in perspective, our current nominal pace advantage is in line with the high end of our implied RevPAR growth outlook for the second half of the year. So if pickup in the second half runs ahead of last year, then we would exceed our outlook by the higher pickup. Recall that last year, with everything that happened, we lost pace advantage as the year progressed and finished down for the year in room revenue. Speaking of our outlook, we're raising our full year outlook to reflect the second quarter outperformance while maintaining our prior assumptions for the second half. With the increased outlook, we're now forecasting same-property RevPAR growth for the year of 4.5% to 5.5%, an increase of 125 basis points at the midpoint. We're also forecasting same-property EBITDA growth of 8.2% to 10.5% with the midpoint at 9.3%, a healthy increase for the year and a material step-up from our prior outlook. These increases translate into an adjusted FFO outlook of $1.69 to $1.76 per diluted share, an increase of $0.08 at the midpoint with a similar increase in our free cash flow outlook. As I indicated earlier, but worth repeating, current trends remain favorable, but booking windows remain short and the geopolitical policy and macroeconomic environment remains uncertain. We're encouraged by the industry trends we've been seeing, but we're not yet comfortable assuming visibility we don't yet have. We'll continue to take the year 1 quarter at a time. And if there's no material impact from geopolitical policy or other macroeconomic events, then we should keep performing favorably to our outlook just as we have in the first half. With a terrific first half behind us and a positive setup in the second half, we remain very excited about the full year for Pebblebrook. Now we just need the rest of the year to cooperate by providing a more stable environment. So with that, we'd now be happy to take your questions. Christine, if you wouldn't mind, please proceed with the Q&A.