Patti Poppe
Analyst · Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim. Your line is open
Thank you, Jonathan. And good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on what we know is a very busy earnings morning. We continue to make progress here at PG&E and this quarter is no different. Our core earnings per share of $0.23 for the second quarter bring us to $0.52 for the first half of 2023. While our first half earnings are down $0.03 versus 2022 we have not yet recognized the benefit of our general rate case. As a reminder we have a memo account in place which will allow us to book catch-up revenues from the January 1 2023 effective date once we receive a final CPUC decision. We still expect a final decision in the third quarter and we were encouraged that the CPUC affirmed this timing earlier this month. As we shared at our Investor Day in May 86% of our incremental revenue request is for core safety reliability and maintenance work. All areas where there is strong alignment with state policy goals and stakeholder priorities. While the GRC decision will be an important driver halfway through the year we remain on track to plan and laser-focused on delivering our annual guidance which we are reaffirming today. We are also reaffirming earnings growth rates of at least 10% in 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026 along with our commitment to no new equity issuance through 2024. Turning to Slide 4. We've continued to make progress in mitigating physical and financial risk. On the physical front we continue to focus on system resilience by reducing wildfire risk and preparing for the grid of the future. We continue to make progress on the regulatory front as well. For example, in the second quarter the CPUC approved over $1 billion of interim rate relief in our 2022 Wednesday proceeding. This accelerates the time line for recovering our legacy wildfire mitigation spend improves our financial metrics and allows us to deliver on needed safety reliability and customer connections work benefiting both our customers and our investors. On the legal front, at the end of May, we were pleased to settle with the Shasta County District Attorney's Office resolving the criminal charges related to the 2020 Zogg Fire. The settlement includes commitments by PG&E to contribute $45 million to various local organizations as part of our ongoing efforts to make it right and make it safe. Our settlement followed rulings by the Superior Court which upheld our long-standing position that there was no evidence showing PG&E's inspections fell below the required standard of care, nor was there any evidence that the risk related to the tree was visible prior to the fire. The court's ruling from April is available on our Investor Relations website. Turning to financial risk mitigation. Our strategy continues to hinge around the simple affordable model, which delivers consistently improving value for customers and investors. Regarding the Fire Victim Trust, we are encouraged that the trust has now monetized over 85% of its initial holding and at steadily higher values for its beneficiaries. After the 60 million share sale earlier this month, the trust now holds just over 3% of our stock. As of the end of June, determination notices have been issued for 97% of all claims with the trustee having indicated a goal to reach 100% and monetize the remaining shares by year-end. Turning to slide five. We highlight our layers of protection strategy along with our anticipated step-up in risk reduction from 90% to 94%, as we roll out our new and expanded programs under our 2023 Wildfire Mitigation Plan. One example is downed conductor detection technology, which involves installing new hardware in the field, supplementing our enhanced power line safety settings. We filed our WMP with the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety in late March and the OEIS came out with its revision notice towards the end of June. We view this feedback as a constructive part of the WMP process and we embrace the opportunity to drive further alignment with our regulators. OEIS identified eight critical issues and we will file our response by August 7 deadline with the draft decision from OEIS expected at the end of September. The revision notice process will not preclude us from filing our annual safety certificate application by the due date of September 13 with OEIS approval due 90 days later. As a reminder, our existing safety certificate remains in effect pending an OEIS decision on our timely filed new application. Earlier this month, at the Annual Board level safety briefing with the CPUC, our Utility Board Chair, Cheryl Campbell; and our Chief Operating Officer, Sumeet Singh discussed our safety culture, performance and details of our enterprise safety management system. These meetings are an element of our AB 1054 compliance and provide an opportunity to engage with regulators on our improvement strategies. We were encouraged to hear commissioners recognize our significant progress, while acknowledging our challenges including changing climate conditions. It's in moments like this that we step back and reflect on the progress being made. In fact at a recent meeting with all of our top leaders, Mark Quinlan, our SVP of Wildfire and Emergency Operations stood up to address the elephant in the room when he said, I bet you're all watching the weather and thinking back to 2017. Well, let me remind you just how much we've done since then. He went on to remind us all that we have an entirely different readiness posture and physical risk mitigation regime in place. Back in 2017, we were reacting and responding to hazards. The investments we've made since then have enabled a dramatic shift to predicting and preventing. Slide 6 illustrates the mitigations now in place thanks to these important investments in innovation. To name just a few. Since 2017, we have installed over 600 high-definition cameras now with AI capabilities more than 1,400 weather stations and almost 1,400 sectionalizing devices. We've hardened over 1,300 miles of line and undergrounded over 300 more. We've removed 3.3 million trees. We've staffed a hazard awareness warning center 24 hours a day seven days a week 365 days a year and we've hired 130 fire prevention professionals who are on our PG&E team and making us safer every day. We've implemented a host of operational mitigations including enhanced power line safety settings on 44000 miles of line in and adjacent to our high fire risk areas. We've enabled public safety power shutoffs when conditions warrant them and new for 2023 we've deployed partial voltage force out and down conductor detection. Our system has never been safer and yet it will be even safer still tomorrow and every day after that. As we shared with the CPUC during the safety briefing we are making progress and we have more work to do. Safety permeates through everything we do and the presence of controls, including our layers of protection leads to manageable and predictable outcomes. I'm confident that we and our key partners including the state are doing everything we can to cause our stance catastrophic wildfires shall stop. The data tell the story. Through mid-July reportable ignitions in our high fire threat district have decreased 53% from the equivalent date in 2017. Last year, we saw a 68% reduction in ignitions on EPSS-enabled circuits and a 99% reduction in acres burned. The data so far suggests we are on track to see further improvement in 2023. Our hard work over the past five years has dramatically changed our risk exposure and the fundamental safety of our system and we aren't stopping there. Moving to slide 7. We also see profound changes in financial risk mitigation due to the framework put in place by SB 901 and AB 1054. At our Investor Day, you heard Ann Patterson Governor Newsom's Cabinet Secretary talk about how the state Wildfire Fund is working as planned. The AB 1054 construct is designed to give utilities and capital providers the financial assurance they need while deploying the investments required to bring down wildfire risk on the system over time. Let me quickly revisit the key features for those looking for a refresher or who may be newer to our story. For wildfire claims exceeding $1 billion in a calendar year, we have access to the state wildfire fund. This provides $21 billion of claim-paying capacity protecting investors from the risk of a liquidity event. Our annual wildfire mitigation plan is a requirement for receiving our annual safety certificate. So long as we have a valid safety certificate we have access to two additional key features of AB 1054. First, the utility's conduct is presumed to have been prudent upfront when it comes to seeking cost recovery at the CPUC along with the prudency standard modeled on the constructive FERC precedent. Second in the unlikely event of the utility being found to have acted imprudently any resulting obligation to reimburse the wildfire fund would be capped at 20% of electric T&D equity rate base on a three-year rolling basis. This cap is currently around $3 billion for PG&E. This is a much better construct than what was in place prior to SB 901 and AB 1054 and that enables the attraction of the necessary capital to build and operate a safe and climate resilient energy system. Turning to Slide 8. Let's review our regulatory and legislative time line. We've made progress on multiple fronts in the first half of the year including, approval of our wildfire self-insurance settlement, the Zogg Fire litigation settlement and 2022 WMCE Interim Rate release. Looking forward, we have several catalysts on the horizon, starting with a GRC final decision expected in the current quarter; the ongoing legislative session in Sacramento where we have seen constructive engagement on energization, which you've heard us previously refer to as new customer connections, showing the legislature's commitment to California's clean energy transition and then on our 2023 wildfire mitigation plan and safety certification processes. Looking a little further out, at the end of this year, we will file our nuclear operating license extension application for Diablo Canyon with NRC and we remain ready to submit our 10-year undergrounding plan once the OEIS and the CPUC complete their scoping process. On Slide 9, you have our 2023 report card where we're showing on track for each of our 2023 and long-term targets. This includes our plan to underground 350 miles in 2023, double last year's target and our 2024 FFO to debt target of mid-teens. As you can see, we're also projecting on track for our 2% non-fuel O&M reduction target, which brings me to my story of the month. This month's story illustrates how our regional service model together with our performance playbook and lean operating system is helping improve the customer experience while we eliminate waste and cost in our work processes. In the North Coast region field operations teams are improving upon a common sense approach that has worked in a lot of our programs bundling work. What's different now is that the teams are working across various branches of electric gas systems inspections and vegetation management to coordinate many types of work, not just bundling similar work in siloed programs as we've done in the past. Cross-functional work bundling allows crews to do more work under the same planned outage line clearance, reducing the cost of switching and grid operations and improving overall reliability. During Q2, my coworkers planned and executed 12 jobs under just one planned outage near the town of Willits. Rather than impacting 100-plus customers multiple times over the year, we did it all in just one go. That's one outage, one day of traffic lane closures, one batch of notifications and only one visit. This goes to show you what's possible when we put the customer at the center of our operations. So far this year, we estimate savings of $0.5 million and 800-plus hours when we did not have to deenergize our customers. This is just the tip of the iceberg and something we are working actively to scale up across all regions, proving we can deliver an improved customer experience while cutting costs all at the same time. This is all part of the momentum we're building here at PG&E. And with that, I'll turn it over to Carolyn.