Matthew Lucey
Analyst · UBS
Thanks, Colin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. We clearly have reached a transformative moment for PBF. The ongoing disruptions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have created one of, if not, the largest dislocation the oil markets have ever seen. None of us welcomes the circumstance behind it, but the effect on our industry is both dramatic and constructive. Indeed, the world is in desperate need of the products we produce. Let me spend a few minutes on what we are seeing, first in crude, then in refined products, because the story on each is a bit different and both matter to how we think about the quarters ahead. With the backdrop of the ongoing Ukraine war, hostilities in the Middle East caused initially roughly 15 million barrels a day of crude and 5 million barrels a day of product to be effectively trapped inside the strait. These are significant headline numbers, but we've seen the market exercise some flexibility on the crude side with alternative routing, crude supply coming from national strategic reserves and in some areas outside the U.S., reduced demand as a result of lower utilization. Global refining utilization is down roughly 10% year-on-year. In the near term, crude flows are still searching for a new equilibrium, and global pricing is doing the work of redirecting barrels along new routes. Until crude reestablishes its historical trade patterns, we cannot predict exactly where a flat price or differentials land. What we can say with more confidence is that this environment favors refiners with crude slate flexibility and proximity to stable crude supply in the Americas. Shorter voyages and quicker, more reliable deliveries are real advantages. PBF's footprint is well positioned as we have not nor do we expect crude availability to impact our operations. Most importantly, on the product side, product inventories have been drawn down across the globe. Refining utilization outside the U.S. has fallen. U.S. markets must incentivize products to stay home as products are being pulled into exports. U.S. and West Coast markets are finding it harder to pull the imports they have historically relied on. The West Coast and East Coast are structurally short refining capacity and depend on imports, often from less stable sources to balance. The temporary Jones Act waivers are helping in this regard. California alone imports on the order of 250,000 barrels a day of gasoline, close to 1/3 of its demand, along with a meaningful volume of its jet fuel. When the global supply tightens, those are precisely the markets that feel first and are most exposed. It reinforces the point we have made for some time. U.S. refining is critical infrastructure and has rarely been more evident than it is today. It will take time for trade patterns to normalize, both during and after these conflicts, and we expect crude to find its footing sooner than products. Prior to the disruption in the Middle East, there was a constructive setup -- I'm sorry, prior to the disruption in the Middle East, there was a constructive setup for refining -- with tight refining balances and low product inventories worldwide. With the ongoing conflicts, this situation has been magnified. Product inventories will be slow to rebuild and the restocking that ultimately must occur should provide a favorable backdrop for refining margins over the quarters to come. What the current environment has provided is the prospect for PBF to generate significant value for our investors. In the second quarter, we reduced our net debt by over $1.4 billion. We ended the quarter with just under $900 million in cash, and I expect we'll end July with approximately $1.5 billion in cash. So to recap, we had a constructive marketplace prior to the Middle East disruptions with ample crude, tight refining balances and no product inventories worldwide. The disruptions around the world have resulted in over 5 million barrels of refining capacity offline, a portion of which has suffered physical damage, which could take significant time to repair. When the disruption passes and the conflicts end, it will take an extended time for product inventories to normalize, thereby maintaining elevated margins for a time. As we saw in a small sample size immediately after the signing of the MoU, crude can and will normalize much quicker than products as the dislocated crude will need to compete for market share. This should result in a favorable crude environment. PBF is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the opportunities presented by this extraordinary market. We've strengthened our balance sheet. We continue to lower our cost structure, and we are executing initiatives that improve reliability and efficiency. The work is being done, and we expect it to translate into meaningful value for shareholders. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mike.