Cameron Goldade
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thanks, Scott. As Scott noted, Pembina reported record third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.019 billion, consistent with the same period in the prior year. While results were essentially flat period-over-period, we saw strong performance across most of Pembina's business primarily from the positive impacts of increased ownership of Alliance and Aux Sable, combined with growing volumes on certain systems and higher NGL margins. However, these results were offset the headwinds we faced on one specific asset Cochin pipeline and the combined impacts of various onetime and transitory events that impacted either the current quarter or the prior period. In pipelines, factors impacting the third quarter variance primarily included a higher contribution from Alliance due to increased ownership following the Alliance Aux Sable acquisition, higher contribution from Alliance due to higher demand on seasonal contracts and the reactivation of the Nipisi pipeline in late '23. These positive impacts were offset by a lower contribution from Cochin pipeline, primarily due to lower tolls on new long-term contracts lower volumes resulting from a contracting gap from mid-July to August 1 associated with the return of line filter certain customers, lower interruptible demand resulting from narrower condensate price differential between Western Canada and the U.S. Gulf Coast, or integrity spending and lower net revenue on the Peace Pipeline system due to the earlier recognition of take-or-pay deferred revenue in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023, which more than offset higher contract volumes. In facilities, factors impacting the third quarter variance included the inclusion within facilities of adjusted EBITDA from Aux Sable following the Alliance Aux Sable acquisition partially offset by a gain on the recognition of a finance lease in the third quarter of the prior year. In Marketing and new ventures, the third quarter variance reflected the net impact of higher net revenue from contracts with customers due to increased interest in Aux Sable following the Alliance Aux Sable acquisition and higher NGL margins. These positive impacts were offset by the impact of a 90-day unplanned outage at Aux Sable and lower realized gains on commodity-related derivatives. Finally, the third quarter corporate segment results reflect higher long-term incentive costs driven by Pembina's share price performance, partially offset by lower consulting costs. Earnings in the third quarter were $385 million. This represents an 11% increase over the same period in the prior year. In addition to the factors impacting adjusted EBITDA, earnings in the third quarter were impacted by unrealized losses recognized by PGI on interest rate derivative financial instruments due to falling interest rates compared to gains in the third quarter of the prior year, unrealized losses recognized by Cedar LNG on interest rate derivative financial instruments, unrealized gains on NGL-based derivatives and crude oil-based derivatives compared to unrealized losses in the third quarter of the prior year, larger unrealized losses on renewable power purchase agreements, a cost recovery related to a storage insurance settlement and higher depreciation and amortization expense and net finance costs. Pipeline volumes of 2.7 million barrels per day in the third quarter represent a 6% increase compared to the same period in the prior year. The increase was primarily due to the increased ownership interest in Alliance and the reactivation of the pipeline. These factors were partially offset by lower volumes on Cochin Pipeline, the Drayton Valley Pipeline and the Peace Pipeline system. Lower volumes on the Peace Pipeline system were a result of earlier recognition of take-or-pay deferred revenue in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023, which more than offset higher contracted volumes. If you normalize conventional pipeline volumes for the earlier take-or-pay recognition and outages, volumes were up approximately 2% over the prior year. Facilities volumes of approximately 800 million barrels per day in the third quarter represent a 1% increase compared to the same period in the prior year. The increase was primarily due to the Alliance on Aux Sable acquisition lower volumes at the Redwater complex and -- younger and lower volumes on certain PGI assets due to the earlier erection of take-or-pay deferred revenue in the first half of 2024 compared to the prior year, which more than offset higher PGI interruptible volumes. Turning to our outlook for the full year. Pembina has narrowed its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $4.225 billion to $4.325 billion. Further, we are currently trending towards the midpoint of the guidance range based on prevailing forward commodity prices and the outlook for fourth quarter volumes. Through the first 3 quarters of the year, conventional pipeline volumes have been modestly impacted by various Pembina and third-party outages and lower-than-expected interruptible volumes on certain systems, leading to a slightly more moderated volume growth in 2024 than originally expected. However, the broader outlook for growth in the WCSB and Pembina's business remains strong, and the revised guidance is based on an expectation for the fourth quarter of higher interruptible volumes on certain systems and the impact of new contracts. At September 30, based on the trailing 12 months, the ratio of proportionally consolidated debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.6x, which is at the low end of the target range. It's important to note, however, that given the April 1 closing date of the Alliance, Aux Sable acquisition, the ratio includes all of the debt associated with the transaction that is currently only capturing 2 quarters of EBITDA contribution. On a normalized basis, this ratio would be approximately 3.4x. I'll now turn things back to Scott.