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Patria Investments Limited (PAX)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 3, 2026

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Patria Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Andre Medina from Patria Shareholder Relations. Please go ahead.

Andre Medina

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Patria's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call. Speaking today on the call are our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Saigh; and our Chief Financial Officer, Ana Russo; and our Chief Economist, Luis Fernando Lopes, for the Q&A session. This morning, we issued a press release and earnings presentation detailing our results for the quarter, which you can find posted in the Investor Relations section of our website on Form 6-K filed within the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Patria assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our latest Form 20-F annual report. Also note that no statements on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Patria fund. As a foreign private issuer, Patria reports financial results using International Financial Reporting Standards, or IFRS, as opposed to U.S. GAAP. Additionally, we would like to remind everyone that we will refer to certain non-IFRS measures, which we believe are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business, but which should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable IFRS measures are included in our earnings presentation. Now I'll turn the call over to Alex. Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Thank you, Andre. Good morning, everyone,…

Ana Russo

Analyst

Thank you, Alex, for the kind words, and good morning, everyone. Indeed, it's quite rewarding to close out 2025 with $7.7 billion of organic fundraising, exceeding by a large margin, our previously upwardly revised full year target of $6.6 billion by more than $1 billion. We expect the strong fundraising momentum and fee-earning AUM growth for 2025 to continue as we enter the second year of our current 3-year plan and are even more confident of our ability to achieve our objectives for 2026 and 2027. Before I review our financials in more detail, I would like to take a moment to speak about my transition from the CFO role. Stepping down as Patria's CFO is a deeply personal decision driven by my desire to dedicate the next stage of my career to advisory and nonexecutive positions, areas where I believe I can contribute to a different organization given my diverse background. I will continue serving as a Board member of Patria-Moneda Asset Management in Chile and remain fully committed to Patria as a CFO through the end of April. Over the next few months, my focus will be on delivering all 2025 annual reports and regulatory obligations, supporting our new auditor, KPMG, as they complete their first annual audit and most importantly, ensuring a smooth and effective transition to Raphael Denadai. I'm extremely proud of how Patria has evolved during my 3.5-year tenure as CFO, and I'm confident that my colleague, Raphael, will do an excellent job and supported by a strong and committed team. Let's review our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results in more detail. Our full year organic fundraising of $7.7 billion was an important step to deliver our cumulative 3-year plan of $21 billion of total fundraising that we communicated at our 2024 Investor…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first incomes from Craig Siegenthaler of Bank of America.

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst

So first question is on private equity valuation process. We've had some recent inbound on the topic, so I thought we could kind of clean it up here. Private Equity Funds IV and V, they're both pre-2016 vintage funds. They both have a significant amount of unrealized value. So I was wondering if you could talk about your internal valuation process, how it works and also how those valuations are validated by third parties. Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Okay. Thank you very much, Craig. Thanks for your question. On the valuation process, we -- in summary, we use industry practice, industry common valuation process for our private equity drawdown funds and our infrastructure fund funds, all of our drawdown funds, we -- once a year, we have an independent appraiser to value the funds. We normally use a recognized independent appraiser that does the valuation with year-end numbers, in this case, end of 2025. This independent appraiser works with the management teams of the respective portfolio company, going through a whole understanding of the business, understanding of the next 3 to 5 years and future prospects of the business and more of a technical discounted cash flow model as it is common in the industry for these kinds of valuations. And then this valuation, of course, is compared with multiples and compared with industry multiples, peers, if there are no comparable listed peers, whatever. So it's, of course, the main methodology is a discounted cash flow. And of course, the end result is compared with peers, valuations, listed, nonlisted M&A transactions, et cetera, et cetera. As it is what I'm saying, it's completely normal for these kind of valuations in the industry. And what we do is actually we then -- they give us a range and then we…

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst

I do have a follow-up also on private equity. But if you look at the MSCI Brazil Index of listed public equities, Brazil has been very strong. As you know, it's returned 55% over the last 12 months, outperforming the S&P 500 in the U.S. by about 40%. Interest rates are expected to decline in Brazil. All this should benefit public equities, private equities, your realization pipeline. So can you talk about the prospects for both IPOs and strategic exits in private equity in 2026? And I assume exits to other private equity firms are still quite limited at this moment given the lack of competition in Brazil, too. Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Yes. Thank you very much. Yes, I think normally, I'm generalizing again here, sorry to generalize listed traded securities do anticipate trends. And in this case, I think the upward trend that you just mentioned, we did see through the 2025 numbers of listed securities. And the MSCI is one of them. As you mentioned, appreciating substantially in 2025 in local currency and in U.S. dollars. Of course, the U.S. dollar has weakened against some of the local currencies. So that's helped the U.S. dollar also base return. That normally translates into private securities with time. It is not from Monday to Tuesday, but the whole enthusiasm with the region and investors start buying assets which they can and the listed ones are the ones that they have more access because they're listed, of course. And the private assets come in due time. And that's exactly what we're seeing. And a lot of exits from both our infrastructure and private equity funds programmed, infrastructure coming first. Basically, all of the assets of our Infrastructure Fund II were sold already. All of the assets of our Infrastructure…

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Lindsey Shema of Goldman Sachs.

Lindsey Marie Shema

Analyst

Just wondering, you maintained your 2026 fundraising guidance. And because of that, it does imply slightly lower fundraising in 2026. So because of that, I just want to understand, do you see any risks to fundraising? Are you maybe a little bit less optimistic? And what are really those reasons for maintaining the fundraising guidance where they are? And then on the flip side, if there's kind of any upside risk to that guidance? And then on that note, if you could just mention how much of your fundraising is coming from your own fund of funds and how that plays into your fundraising? Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Lindsey, thanks for the question, and thanks for participating in the call. No, we're just being conservative, to be honest. I think it's -- we're not -- we had a guidance. We gave a 3-year plan. We want to hit the 3-year plan. And the 3-year plan that we did give out December of '24 was to raise organically $21 billion. So it would be $6 billion in 2025, which we did $7.7 billion, actual $7.7 billion versus $6 billion, the guidance and $7 billion for 2026, $8 billion for 2027. So $6 billion plus $7 billion plus the $8 billion, $21 billion, our organic fundraising to hit the $70 billion of fee-earning AUM by the end of 2027, having started in the end of 2024 at around $35 billion. So we would double fee-earning AUM, which is 25% increase per year. And -- we are extremely positive about our fundraising momentum. And -- but we wanted to keep that as a $7 billion and $8 billion guidance. Nothing that really worries about that. On the contrary, we see a good momentum. But we didn't see any reason for us to…

Marco DIppolito

Analyst

My only comment here and good afternoon, everyone. My only comment here is, as Alex said, we don't have a fund of fund. We do manage a listed trust that has actually funded one of our secondary funds. The amount is $75 million. Again, a very small amount relative to the overall fundraising for last year. Just to remind, this is a vehicle that has an independent Board. It's a listed trust listed in the London Stock Exchange. Therefore, decisions are subject to an independent Board. Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Okay. Any subsequent questions, Lindsey? Did we manage to answer your questions?

Lindsey Marie Shema

Analyst

Yes. Thank you, Marco. It was the listed vehicle that I was asking about there. And then maybe just some further color on fundraising. Are you still seeing international interest in Latin America region? I know Brazil has been kind of a hot topic right now. What regions are you really seeing the most interest from? And where do you expect that incremental fundraising to come from? Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Yes. No, thank you, Lindsey. No, yes, I think we have the -- I have been saying that, I think, over the last earnings -- several earnings calls that we have been geographically overperforming LatAm, overperforming Asia, Middle East. We're kind of performing at expectations in Europe. and we are underperforming the U.S. So I've been saying that for several earnings calls. That hasn't really changed much throughout the whole year 2025. We have been, again, overperforming LatAm. In general, we have been overperforming, right, 7.7% versus the guidance of 6%, 30% more. Where is it coming from? Overperforming Asia Pacific, overperforming Middle East, overperforming LatAm, in line with our expectations in Europe, underperforming the U.S. And asset class-wise, overperforming credit, overperforming GPMS, overperforming infrastructure, in line with real estate and in line with private equity. And as I mentioned, our expectations for private equity were low, but were in line with our expectations. We see these geopolitical shifts in the world benefiting LatAm. We see interest from Asia Pacific, Middle East and LatAm itself. I think some of that interest in LatAm has to do with geopolitical shifts in some of the investors in these regions allocating more to LatAm versus other parts of the world. And I think LatAm is extremely well positioned to benefit from these trends given the solid democracies with solid institutional frameworks, solid regulatory framework with -- if you look at the kind of balanced fiscal budgets relative to other countries in the world, of course, you can see that -- you can say the 1% or 2% there or here is that. But if you compare to other countries in the world in a somewhat better situation. We see also a region of the world with a high percentage of renewable energy being driving manufacturing. We have commodities, soft and hard commodities in the region. We have -- the region has the second largest deposit of rare earth in the world is in the region, a region that is also rich in oil and gas and also in protein and other commodities. So it's a region that actually was, in my view, underrated for so many years. And now I think it's getting its place under the sun. -- optimistic about continuing to see even more resources coming to the region in the near future.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual.

Ricardo Buchpiguel

Analyst

Can you please provide more color on the nature of the process related to the around $100 million in litigation liabilities Patria has and also comment about the chances of having to pay some of this value? And how are the key steps on the main litigations on this bulk of $100 million? Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: All right. Ana, do you want to help me with this answer? I think specifically the litigation liability, please?

Ana Russo

Analyst

Thank you, Ricardo, for the question. I was also making sure that this -- the $100 million as is posted in our -- I think in our financial statement and also 20-F, it just so that is not in our balance sheet, as you know, because we just consider an accrue if there is a possibility for considering that is losing. So you -- as part of our information, you're going to see that more than 80% of this litigation, we already it's going to went away in our next reports and basically as we already in the past already included in all the statements that are very -- it was not possible -- it was not a remote, but it was probable. So we actually won and this more than 85% is going to go away in our next reports, okay? So we will see in our next reports.

Ricardo Buchpiguel

Analyst

That's clear. And a follow-up question. We saw that there was an increase in transaction costs related to M&A understand that Pat has been reaccelerating the M&A agenda and some announcements were made this year. So my question is if we should see -- should expect this level of transaction costs of around like $20 million, $25 million per quarter in the following quarters. Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Yes. I think -- well, I can take that from a macro view and then I can answer specific about the numbers. Just again, just to go through this litigation process again. So we won a specific litigation there, Ricardo, where around approximately 85% of the number of $100 million will come out of our numbers as of beginning of 2026, okay? So that's 85% out of the $100 million there. On transaction costs, I think we did say, I think, to the market that we would have a hiatus in our acquisitions during 2025 in order to be able to show our capability to integrate the businesses that we have acquired and fundraise for the businesses that we did acquire, which I think we were spot on with the $7.7 billion that we raised does not include any acquisitions because we did not do any acquisitions during 2025. And we raised money for businesses that we had acquired in the past like our credit business, our GPMS business, et cetera, and our real estate business as well. So happy that, that happened. We had 1 year of hiatus. In addition, we also mentioned that as we do integrate these acquisitions will bring our FRE margins again to 58% to 60%. Now our FRE margin was close to 59% for 2025, so right in the middle of the 58%, 60% number…

Ricardo Buchpiguel

Analyst

No, that's clear. And given that the pace of M&A should continue in line with the strategy here, should we expect still this transaction cost that impacts the accounting net profit and excluded from distributable earnings, should it continue to be around like $20 million, $25 million? Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Yes. Sorry, that's right. Ana, if you can comment on the number itself, please. I'm sorry. I forgot the second part of your answer.

Ana Russo

Analyst

Ricardo, as you know, this line of transaction costs, including all our nonrecurring expenses, which is directly related to our M&As and also restructuring costs, as you know. The quarter specifically was accelerated because of those M&A agenda, as Alexandre mentioned, the closing of those 2 of Solis and RBR and signing of WP. And specifically in this quarter is a higher than usual, the quarter specifically because of the impact of those transactions and some of the specific agreements that hit or cost that hit the fourth quarter. So when we look in a quarterly basis, is -- I would say this is on the high end. So -- it's too high to consider that all quarters is going to be around $20 million. But we are -- as we have no new M&As, when we talk about total year, we can expect to have a slightly lower next year, but not in a quarterly basis, $20 million is more on the high side because of those events happening in the same quarter. I think I don't know if I answer your question.

Ricardo Buchpiguel

Analyst

That's very clear. So mainly when you are closing M&A, we should see small well. That's very clear.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Nicolas Vaysselier of BNP Paribas.

Nicolas Vaysselier

Analyst

I would like to bring the discussion back to the flagship PE and infrastructure funds. I acknowledge this is not the bulk of your fundraising targets for the next few years. Still, I would like to have a bit of color from your side. I mean you've managed to raise the success of funds in what was a difficult environment -- macro environment for the LatAm region. And I was wondering if you could tell us more about the changes in the LP base you might have had from PE Fund IV to PE Fund V and same thing on the infra and particularly the sort of free-up rates you've managed to achieve from your LPs? Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Nicolas, thanks for your question. Well, we have seen, in general, I think if we go back to our earlier funds and today, a shift from endowments and family offices to institutional investors. And so if you look at the absolute value of the dollars that we raised more and more for these funds that you mentioned, the drawdown funds, private equity funds and infrastructure funds drawdown, private equity buyout, private equity growth and infrastructure development, which no value add, we see more and more institutional investors composing the absolute value of the fundraising. You have a big number of family offices, but in absolute value, they are contributing less and because the institutional investors come with sizable checks, not sizable checks. So that has been the trend in most of our drawdown funds, those that you just mentioned specifically, the trends are similar to ones that I described. Re-up rates, they go from 40% to 60% re-up rates. I think the latest fund that we are raising drawdown is our secondaries opportunity fund #5. We have re-up rates above 50%. So that's the latest one. So to give you no fresh news on that. And if you go back to the funds that you mentioned, even though you mentioned private equity buyout #4, but it's a 10-year-old fund. To be honest, I forget now what is the re-up rate versus private equity buyout #3 because it's 10, 12 years ago. But the latest funds, it's around the 40%, 60%, which I have in mind number, Nicolas. I can get back to you offline on the re-up rates of private equity buyout #4, which I forget given that it's not a 10-year-old fund. But the last ones that I see infrastructure development fund #5 that we closed in 2025. That's the range, 40% to 60% re-ups. -- secondary opportunistic opportunity fund #5. We see around 50% re-up rates. So that's more or less between the 40% and 60% for the more recent funds that I have fresher in my memory. But I can go offline and look for you for the older funds, okay, if you don't mind.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Carlos Gomez-Lopez of HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

So first, I want to congratulate Ana I think for a very good present very good job and luck in your next endeavor. Specifically on Page 21, you give us a very good breakdown about shares outstanding and the increase in the first quarter of '25. We understand this is related to particular transactions M&A. What do we expect for the share count in the next, let's say, 2 or 3 years? Where should we expect to be dilution to shareholders -- and second, when you look at the EPS evolution on Page 2 -- and I realize that the earnings is not everything, but you have had 126 in '23, 24 in '24, 127 '25. What -- again, what is the evolution that we should expect in the coming years. Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Carlos, thank you for your question. I'll ask Ana to help me here and answer specifically on the numbers that you just mentioned. In general, we gave a guideline in our December 2024 3-year plan tax Day that we will have a share count of around 158 million to 160 million shares for the '25, '26 and '27 period. We have finished 2025 with 158 million shares, and we project 2026 to '27 for the share count to stay within that range, around 160 million shares, around 160 million shares. Again, a guideline that we gave in the end of 2024 for the '25, '26 and '27 period. And we have -- also we gave as a guideline, our FRE for 2026 for this year is $225 million to $245 million with a midrange, of course, of $235 million. And for 2027, $260 million to $290 million with a midrange to $275 million. So then we use these numbers and we use the share count that I gave you and to calculate the FRE per share. And Ana, do you have the specific numbers there that you can help me, please for FRE per share for '26 and '27?

Ana Russo

Analyst

Sorry, I was on mute. Yes. I think just to understand what Carlos, what you're saying. So -- when we look into our FRE per share -- sorry, we have 108 on the FRE when we talk -- I'm sorry, -- you were talking about FRE per share. I'm sorry that we couldn't hear you.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

No, no. Actually, your answer has been on FRE per share, and I understand that it is the main metrics that you use. But I was looking at distributable earnings, which ultimately is the measure for shareholders. Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: To be honest, it's very hard to listen exactly to what you were asking. I think there was a noise in the background. So I understood FRE, but you're saying DE. So I'm sorry about that, Carlos.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

No, no, my fault. I hope it's better now. Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: No, no, I'm sorry. We were not listening very well to your question. So on the DE side, what we do is the following. We give an FRE number, which is the one that I just gave you, $225 million to $245 million for 2026, $260 million to $190 million for 2027. We also give them a share count number, which is 158 million shares to 160 million shares for '26 and '27. And we also give a performance-related earnings number. We do not give a per year number because it's very hard, as I was, I think, answering one of the questions here today to pinpoint exactly which quarter, which year that performance fees is going to be generated. So we gave a 3-year guidance. The 3-year guidance was $120 million to $140 million of performance fees. As of the end of 2025, we generated approximately $60 million, $62 million of performance fees. So for 2026 and 2027, there's $60 million to $80 million to go. okay? And we -- it's very hard again to predict exactly what quarter or even 1 year. So that's why we gave a 3-year guidance. We are 1 year into the guidance. We have another 2 years to go. If we take into the low end of the range, which is now $60 million to go of performance fees, we predict that Infrastructure Fund III is the one that will probably generate the highest probability to generate performance fees. And we estimate that there is a non unrealized performance fees in that fund of $20 million. So that's $20 million out of the $60 million. And the other $40 million should come from other funds that we have several funds that are maturing to generate performance fees in several different asset classes. So we don't give specific DE per share on a quarter-by-quarter basis or year-by-year basis because of this nature of our performance fees. if I managed to answer your question.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

No, you have answered that question. And last one, do you expect the tax rate, which is down again about 5% or so to stay in those levels? Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Our guidance on tax is around 10% tax rate. That's our guidance. We're currently been able to have a lower tax rate several different reasons. One specifically for 2025 is because we had a tax credit in the U.K. But we don't see that as a recurring tax credit for 2026, 2027. So we should, as we move into 2026, 2027 to see approximately a 10% tax rate. And Ana, do you want to comment on that as well, please?

Ana Russo

Analyst

Yes. Our tax rate, there are 2 impacts when you look into our tax rate is also the size of the performance also impact our effective tax rate because some of the revenue sometimes comes from jurisdiction which have a favorable tax rate. So you also have to take that into consideration when compared year-over-year. But when we look into over time, and as Alexandre mentioned, and I mentioned in my remarks, is actually this year was actually had a favorable impact of a credit on the U.K. And therefore, we foresee for the next 3 years that at the end of the 3-year period, it would reach approximately 10%. So it's going to increase over time to reach approximately 10% as we increase revenue and income in jurisdictions and pay more tax as we -- as our mix of M&A that enters and also our revenue. So this has been our guidance and we're looking to our plan.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Fernanda Sayao of JPMorgan. Fernanda Sayão: You've been growing very aggressively on the real estate business. Could you elaborate a little bit more on the strategy here? And how dependent do you think that lower rates is to grow this business? Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Thank you, Fernanda. Thanks for your question. And well, we are extremely excited with our real estate business in general, not only in Brazil, but in LatAm. And we are the largest real estate investment trust manager in Brazil as of now and scale in this asset class does matter. Yes, I think it's -- we've been successfully fundraising and there are several ways that we can fundraise. It is an asset class in general that is interest rate dependent. Yes, it is in general. We see that as interest rates do raise, you have a slower pace of fundraising as interest rates start showing a trend of decreasing, which is the case of Brazil, which is -- we saw that in Chile last year, we see the fundraising increasing, increasing. So it is dependent. Interest rates -- when interest rates increased in Brazil, using Brazil as an example, fundraising then the pace of fundraising decreased and vice versa now, we see that the Brazilian Central Bank will most probably reduce interest rates in Brazil this year as the yield curve also shows that. And our fundraising pace, at least in Brazil should increase. It should be better fundraising environment for our Brazilian real estate investment trusts. In addition, Fernanda, what we also see that given the size of our funds in Brazil, -- we -- a lot of investors look to us. And of course, we are talking also proactively with investors in exchanging their assets for shares…

Operator

Operator

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back to Alex Saigh for any closing remarks. Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh: Great. Thank you very much for your patience and keeping on with us for long 1.5 hour here and your support is very much appreciated. I hope to see all of you in person during the year. I think there are several conferences that you already invited, and thank you very much for the invitation. And here we go. Hope to continue delivering as we are extremely confident in our numbers, and we start the year with a very strong momentum. And hopefully, that momentum is going to translate into even better fundraising that we gave the guidance and also fee earnings AUM and revenues, et cetera. Thanks a lot. Have a good day. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.