Alex Saigh
Analyst · Bank of America. You may proceed
Thank you, Josh, and good morning, everyone. Patria continues to perform very well through a year where the world has faced significant uncertainty. We delivered $0.20 of distributable earnings per share in the third quarter, bringing us to $0.64 per share for the year-to-date, all driven by steady and predictable fee-related earnings. FRE per share is up 54% year-to-date in 2022. And given our 85% payout ratio, a shareholder buying around the current share price could expect an annualized dividend yield north of 5% from fee-related earnings alone, an attractive proposition in just about any market environment. Our fundraising progress continued in the third quarter with more than $500 million of new capital inflows across multiple products, bringing us to more than 2.7 billion raised for the year-to-date. Valuations were generally up in the third quarter, taking our net accrued performance fee balance up to $428 million and driving nearly $450 million in positive impact to AUS. Lastly, we added some great talent to our team, welcoming Ana Russo to the firm as our incoming CFO, and we are excited for the perspective and value she brings to Patria. She will also introduce herself to you shortly here on the call. Before expanding on our platform, I want to first touch on the broader Latin America macro landscape and a highly differentiated economic backdrop emerging in our part of the world. It pays to diversify. And right now, Latin America is making a solid case to attract allocations. A busy political cycle is coming to an end as the region’s largest economy, Brazil has just gone through general elections. In early October, the composition of the new Brazilian Congress came to light and both the health of representatives and the Federal Senate now have the most conservative and business trend spend since the return of democracy in the 1980s. State governors also elected last month, have the same profile, along with an independent judiciary branch, a free press and solid market foundations that speaks of a functional liberal market democracy. By the way, that is the prevalent situation in most of Latin America. As for the presidential contest, there were no unknowns. The runoff had former President Lula facing the incumbent President Bolsonaro. Lula won an outcome that was largely anticipated by markets since he has led the polls over the past months. Patria’s successful business model and investment strategies are not predicated on the particularities of the campaign program of any country leader in any specific geography. But that being said, there are rational grounds to assert that President Lula is likely to implement the same effective policies and reforms that yielded him a job approval rating of over 80% when he stepped down on January 1, 2011, after serving two, four-year terms. Lula managed to reduce object property in the country by 51%, whereas Brazil’s GDP in U.S. dollars climbed to $2.2 trillion from $510 billion. Public indebtedness fell to 62% of GDP from 76% whereas international reserves soared to $289 billion from $38 billion. Admittedly, we’ll have benefited a lot from the unfolding commodity super cycle, but it is worth noting that over the past couple of years, the relative prices of primary products has increased significantly as well. Lula leads a broad center-left coalition that we will try to enact an ambitious agenda with a focus on sustainable development and inclusive growth while preserving fiscal and monetary discipline, thus updating the script followed in his past administrations. Zoom also take the broader Latin American perspective, we see evidence from recent election cycles in Colombia and Chile, for instance, that strongly suggests that Latin American societies may not change, but they are constantly redressing extreme departures from the existing status quo. Very importantly, there has been no compromising of prudent economic policies, neither of the friendly stance towards private investments. Lastly, it is worth remembering that there are no geopolitical conflicts in the region, no nuclear weapons, no religious or ethnical classes while natural resources are plenty. As the reference alternative asset manager focused on the region, we believe these factors should continue accruing to the benefit of Patria. In our portfolio performance, our ability to attract new custom to our products and our capacity to successfully divest from assets, indeed, the year-to-date performance of Latin American assets and market seems to corroborate to this assessment. The Latin America’s MSCI index of listed equity in U.S. dollars is up 12% in 2022, while the global index is down 24%. The A basket of Latin American currencies adjusted for each country’s GDP size shows an appreciation of 2% against the U.S. dollar, while other global currencies like the euro and the Japanese yen are posting double-digit depreciation. M&A activity in the region has grown by 43%, while in the rest of the world, it has stagnated or is decreasing sharply. These distinctions are important. There’s a clear view that while our industry clearly benefits from the powerful long-term trends in asset allocation, it may face some macro headwinds in the short term, and we are certainly seeing that reflected in sector valuations. As you think about Patria, it’s important to consider the backdrop in which we operate. And right now, we think Latin America looks quite compelling compared to most parts of the globe. Turning back to our business. I’ll go a little deeper on fundraising and then add some color from our asset class verticals. Fundraising in the quarter included a notable closing of Brazil-based capital of our newest private equity fund. We talked a lot about diversifying our platform and product offering, but this is a great example of our efforts to diversify our distribution channels and further democratize alternatives in the region. Disclosing of BRL1 billion focused on the high net worth and qualified retail channel and included more than 7,000 investors with check sizes ranging from more than BRL1 million all the way down to BRL10,000. It is a prime example of how we believe we can harness the financial deeply in the region to drive AUM and earnings growth. We targeted $4 billion of fundraising in 2022 across a diverse range of products, and each piece of that target is now well within our sites. While our targeted closing date should get us there in Q4, it is possible that, that piece could slip past the end of the year into early 2023. Over 2022 and 2023 together, we are targeting $6 billion to $7 billion in long-dated closed-end drawdown fund structures. This is coming not just from our two flagship funds, but also from a growing offering of complementary products targeted at both the international and local investor universe, including strategies like growth equity, infrastructure credit and private credit. And that $6 billion to $7 billion doesn’t include fundraising in our more perpetual strategies that can constantly fundraise, where we have already seen inflows of more than $1.4 billion so far this year. It also doesn’t include our permanent capital strategy, where we now have more than $1 billion in AUM across REITs, real estate investment trusts and core infrastructure products and expect to add another $1 billion next year through organic fundraising and additional M&A. Now looking at some highlights across the platform. For private equity, in addition to the fund closing, we announced the agreement for Lavoro, a leading agricultural input retailer in Latin America and the largest in Brazil to become a U.S.-listed public company. This is an important step forward in the divestment process for Fund V and a great case study of our success in the agribusiness sector and the execution of a pan-regional consolidation strategy with more than 20 M&A transactions completed to build the Company we see today. In infrastructure, we continue to see an accelerating fundraising cycle as we target the first closing of our next flagship fund in the coming months, more than one year ahead of what we anticipated back at the time of our IPO. We also closed our second infrastructure core vehicle targeted to local Brazilian investors in Q3. The divestment process continues to move along with some key assets with an expectation to deliver significant realizations to our limited partners in the next few quarters. Credit continued to show strong relative performance despite historically challenging market conditions in the asset class. The high-yield strategy is outperforming its benchmark by an impressive 660 basis points year-to-date, with about 90% at outperformance attributable to asset selectivity with a yield to maturity of more than 13% at the end of Q3. The local currency strategy is also outperforming its benchmark with a yield to maturity of more than 15%. On a broader basis, these two products are both performing 1,500 to 2,000 basis points better than the world’s Aggregate Bond Index, which is down 20% year-to-date. Our public equities platform delivered solid performance in Q3 as LatAm equity markets were a clear bright spot relatively to the U.S. and most of the world markets. The Chilean small-cap strategy, for example, returned 12% in Q3 and outperformed its benchmark by 370 basis points. And in real estate, BBI raised more than BRL100 million to allowance, a new REIT, real estate investment trust vehicle focused on credit assets. This continues to be an area where we remain active on the M&A front and believe there is a very replicable permanent capital strategy to be pursued in other key Latin American countries. Let me now turn things over to Marcus to give some more details on the numbers. Marco?
Marco D’Ippolito: Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone. Looking first at the P&L results, we generated fee-related earnings of $31.7 million in third Q ‘22 and $94.6 million year-to-date, up 46% and 57%, respectively, from the comparable prior year periods. FRE was in line compared to the second quarter, following a similar pattern in the fee revenues and fee-earning AUM. A few known factors coincided to limit the uplift that we will typically see moving into the second semester of the year, and our trajectory remains on track for our full-year guidance. Our second infrastructure fund reached the contractual end of its fund term in June. And the lack of that fee stream offsets the additional revenue generated by infrastructure deployment in the first half of the year. Also, as noted last quarter, there is a fee holiday on the first closing of our latest private equity fund, meaning the private equity deployment in the first half, while still fee-earning AUM in nature is not effectively generating management fees yet. And finally, the outflows from credit in the middle of the year, which have low and we believe turned the corner, have resulted in credit fee earnings AN being lower than we hoped at the beginning of the year. Despite these offsetting factors for management fee growth during the year, fee revenues has remained very stable, demonstrating the stability that make our fee earnings predictable. In the fourth quarter, we expect to deliver similar management fee revenue with the addition of the year-end incentive de-crystallization adding to the FRE results. This should allow us to deliver our financial guidance of 50% FRE growth, which we first conveyed exactly one year ago, through an environment where maintaining guidance has proved difficult for many companies. The FRE margin was 57% for both the quarter and year-to-date period, continuing to run on the higher side of our mid-50s guidance as both personal and administrative expenses have remained relatively consistent with first-half levels. Net accrued performance fees rose to $428 million, up from $49 million last quarter and up 23% since the beginning of the year. The quality of our private equity and infrastructure portfolios continues to support significant embedded value for shareholders, and exit processes continue to move forward for several portfolio companies. As we look to the fourth quarter, there remains a possibility of a performance fee realization event with the outcome now being more binary. It’s safer to assume an event that crystallizes in 2023, though we would expect to have clarity by the time we announce our Q4 earnings. Turning to AUM. Total AUM was $26.5 billion at September 30, up slightly from the prior quarter with the inflows in private equity offset by outflows in credit and positive valuation impact offset by currency impact. Total AUM is up 76% from one year ago, reflecting the expansion with Moneda and up 11% year-to-date. Fee earning AUM was $18.6 billion at September 30 compared to $18.8 million at June 30, with a quarterly change generally driven by the same factors affecting fee revenue that I mentioned a moment ago. The contractual fee turn-off of infrastructure to is the largest driver. And while we also saw some additional net redemptions in credit for the quarter, driven largely by Chilean clients, we are seeing the macro headwinds for those flows at as we enter Q4, following the strong rejection of the proposed new constitution in Chile. I will close with a quick reminder of my upcoming transition to focus my time more fully on Patria’s growth strategy in the coming years as Chief Corporate Development Officer. It has been a privilege to serve as a CFO in these recent years, and I want to assure you that I will continue to be a regular pace to Patria shareholders from the senior leadership team, bringing Ana Russo to our management team adds a distinctive set of skills that will take our finance and accounting team to the next level as a public company. In turn, it is going to allow me to best leverage my strength to achieve our future vision for the growth of the platform. You’ll hear a lot more from Ana in the coming quarters. But for now, I will turn to her for just a few quick words. Ana?