Alex Saigh
Analyst · Marcelo Telles from Credit Suisse
Okay, hi, Marcelo. How are you? This is Alex Saigh speaking. Thanks for joining us this morning. How are you? Nice to talk to you over the phone again, and hope to see you in person soon again. So going back to your first question on fundraising for Private Equity VII, as far as timing and expectation I think we're right there where we want to be and very aligned with previous fundraising, for Private Equity VI, V, et cetera going back in time, we normally have a first close, which is approximately 25% to 35% of what we announced that we want to fundraise. In this case, we have on the cover of our perspective $3.5 billion, with an upside case of over $4 billion that goes in our industry here, they call it a hard cap, a little over $4 billion, so no 800 something million over the $3.5 billion. That's the math that the industry now does have a KPI for a first close is right on track. We do normally, as in past, other past fundraising processes, keep the fund in a fundraising mode 12 to 18 months after the first close. So we have all the way to, I'm exaggerating here, but technically speaking all the way to October of next year, which is 18 months for March two fundraise for Private Equity Fund VII. And we are seeing a good market to fundraise. And I think it changed over the end of last year to the beginning of this year, to the better for Latin America as a whole I would say and for Patria’s, we are the leading alternative house in Latin America. If you go back I think, Marcelo, 18 months to 24 months, now how the region was doing on treating COVID. And we had low vaccination programs in the region. And some of the leaders in the region were being questioned by the market if they were going to be fiscally disciplined, et cetera. Now, if you turn that movie that video there for now 24 months, and you get back to today, I think most of these micro questions have been answered positively for the region, as you know. And in addition, we were already seeing a commodity cycle upswing as of the second half of 2021, which helped the region of course, because most countries who are net exporters of commodity, gating to the Ukraine war that nobody, of course wanted to have this war ongoing, but it did benefit the region, because of the low geopolitical risks and the commodities prices also continuing to strengthen. So on the macro side, I think the situation turned to our side. And in addition, when you double click there, as far as Patria is concerned, we have no great funds, prior private equity funds with over 30% net IRR in dollars. And so a lot of re-ups of our current LPs in this first close, we're going to have another close in the second quarter of this year and keep on going. What is the -- some of the backslash on fundraising, which is no good reason, but it's the backslash. I think the industry has been performing extremely well. You probably know that private markets in 2020 and 2021 had record IRR and DPI as a whole in general. So investors are extremely happy with the asset class and I put a note in all of the alternative assets in this big private markets asset class and most of the asset classes within private markets performed extremely well over the last two years. And what happened and it's a good problem to have but it's a problem investors know them in their portfolios are over allocated to private markets because if public markets don't actually go up or come or come down and private markets go up substantially as it did over ‘21 and 2020, the allocation, the percentage of your portfolio allocated to private markets increased. And sometimes it actually went over what theoretically, you had approved by the respective board or pension funds of your sovereign fund, et cetera. So most of our clients are having to go back to their boards or investment committees and approve a higher allocation for private markets, it's a good problem to have. But again, it is the whole process takes a little longer, et cetera. That's the A, B, now we are facing, of course, higher competition, because the whole a lot of other funds also performed very well in 2020 and 2021. So even though the performance of our funds, the highest ever, to be honest, Fund V and Fund VI, other funds also performed well in other parts of the world. So that was going on, when we come into know 2022. And the geopolitical risks that happened, because of the Ukraine war, actually the geopolitical risks increased because of the Ukraine war, and several investors then went back to look at Latin America as a desired place to invest. Because everything that I just said. So I think, again, I started with a conclusion here, and now we're on track with our fundraising base, as you asked, what we wanted to raise in our first close was what we did raise $800 million out of $3.5 billion, which is on the cover of our perspective is exactly the textbook fundraising case. And I'm happy and we already having a second close in the second quarter, and then gave you a double click, I think there's two forces going on here. I think Latin America in general has been on the move to attract attention from investors and but at the same time, the industry performed extremely well over the last few years, which is a good problem to have, but we have tougher competition in the fundraising side. So these are the forces going on here, then you asked about the Moneda, our fundraising synergies with Moneda have not actually kicked in yet, or they did in a general sense. Now having Patria on Moneda together, investors are very, very happy with that combination. But we haven't seen a lot of the Patria long-term institutional investors already convert, because we didn't have a lot of time, as we did actually combined the businesses in late last year, there was not enough time to then officially and technically legally been able to go to on the road together, and already have positive influence in the first quarter. So we're going to see this kick-in as we move into 2022. So I was very impressed to be honest with the amount of money that Moneda raised in the first quarter. And it has to do with performance, of course it has to do with their relationships, and they have great relationships with very, very large, sizable institutional clients all over the world. And of course, inside Chile as well. But performance though, I think attracted a lot the inflows. I mentioned during my speech here that their equity funds perform extremely well in the quarter. And their credit funds, which was not an easy market performed extremely well. And I mentioned the 300 something basis points over the benchmark in the first quarter and over 800 and something basis over a longer period of time before credit Moneda has substantial alpha. Although the investments side, we would definitely have turned the knob to divestments. And on a macro sense, what did we do? Last year, we were pressing the pedal on investments because we had EBITDA that were hurt because of COVID. And so we also have lower multiples, because the whole situation that I just described it's kind of question mark over Latin America that got raised over the latter part of ‘21, beginning of ‘22. And we also have a weaker currency in the region. So we turned them out to investments and we had our record year for investments as you know. As we come into 2022 we turned the knob and the focus to divestments. And that's because again, all these few things that I just mentioned turn the way in favor of divestments, we have stronger local currencies. So the dollar denominated funds do show better returns, we have the COVID kind of uncertainties kind of out of the table, because of the very successful vaccination programs. The economies are growing, again, fiscal discipline from the leaders in the region, from the -- or the main leaders in the region, et cetera favoring the region, as you said, and very active M&A activity 2022. So we're using that general situation that favors divestments too actually then sell several of our companies in the private equity and infrastructure portfolio. So we're very happy with where we are, we know we have to be honest, over 15 companies that we actually have a sale process going on in a portfolio of 35. And 10 of those are very recent investments. So like 15 out of 25 companies that we're actively pursuing a divestment, which is substantial, it's two thirds of the portfolio, because of the situation that I described, and that you alluded to as well, given the active M&A activity in the region, most of that interests are coming. It's coming from strategic global investors that are ready to invest in the region. So we did sell earlier this year, for example, in the private equity portfolio, elderly living company, or the largest elderly living company in the world is a French company that is listed in the Paris Stock Exchange. So we see -- we have no infrastructure assets being sought after by global strategic players. So over 90% of interest that we receive for our portfolio companies, the one that I mentioned, that are in a process of being sold, we see interest from global strategic investors that are willing to invest in the region. I hope, long answer to your question, but I hope address all of your points.