Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Patrick Industries' Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Rob and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. The question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please note this conference is being recorded. And I will now turn the call over to Mr. Steve O'Hara, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. O'Hara, you may begin.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call this morning. I'm joined on the call today by Andy Nemeth, CEO, Jeff Rodino, President; and Matt Filer, Interim CFO. Certain statements made in today's conference call regarding Patrick Industries and its operations may be considered forward-looking statements under the securities laws. There are a number of factors, many of which are beyond the company's control, which could cause the actual results and events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. These factors are identified in our press releases, our Form 10-K for the year ended 2022 and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to update these statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made. I would now like to turn the call over to Andy Nemeth.

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. Before discussing the results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2023, I want to take a moment and continue to thank our amazing team members for their dedication and commitment in driving solid organizational performance during incredible dynamic market conditions. Our success would not be possible without their hard work, attention to detail and commitment to excellence and quality customer service. Our team continues to be driven by a purpose and passion for the great outdoors and the impact our branded quality, innovative products and services can have as we strive to elevate the customer experience for our valued partners in the outdoor enthusiasts and housing markets. Over the past few years, our strength, resilience and results have reflected the benefits of our strategic diversification, and this quarter was no exception. In spite of the fluid dynamics of our end market landscape in the face of challenging macroeconomic environment, specifically related to the highest interest rates in more than 20 years, our team and flexible business model continue to adapt and perform, our balance sheet remains well capitalized with plenty of liquidity, and our cash flow is evidenced the underlying strength of our portfolio of branded companies that drive our organizational model. In addition to the benefits of our diversification and strategic model, our three end market-focused businesses have unique advantages that complement each other in our portfolio. Our RV focused business units generally have highly leverageable variable cost structure that is also highly scalable up and down in alignment with real-time changes to production levels. Our marine focused business units generally have a higher fixed cost structure that generally delivers a higher engineered core competency value proposition. And our housing…

Thanks, Andy, and good morning, everyone. On third quarter RV revenues, which represents 46% of our consolidated total decreased 24% to $400 million when compared to the same period in 2022. Our RV content per unit decreased 2% on a TTM basis to $4,957 per unit driven by our actions to pass along favorable pricing to our customers, reflecting certain declining commodity costs and smaller units taking larger percentage of production mix, partially offset by market share gains. Additionally, from our operating perspective, OEMs returned to a more predictive production schedule in the third quarter, which allowed us to better allocate our resources and plan further ahead for better efficiencies. RV wholesale unit shipments of approximately 73,300 units decreased by 20% or more than 18,000 units from the third quarter of 2022. We currently estimate third quarter retail registrations were approximately 105,800 units, an estimated decline of approximately 13% compared to the third quarter of 2022. The metrics we have outlined imply a net decrease in dealer inventories of approximately 32,500 units during the quarter and approximately 78,000 units year-to-date. Our estimates indicate that the TTM dealer inventory weeks on hand at the end of the third quarter of 2023 have declined to approximately 12 to 14 weeks from 19 to 21 weeks at the beginning of fiscal 2023 and 16 to 18 weeks at the end of the second quarter of 2023. This is well below historical levels of approximately 26 to 30 weeks. From a model year mix perspective, as it relates to the current dealer inventory levels, we believe the ratio of prior model year units that currently sit on dealer lots reflects a more normal relationship compared to what we experienced over the first half of the year. For context, we estimate just 300,000 model year…

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everybody. Our consolidated third quarter net sales decreased 22% or $246 million to $866 million, driven by a 20% decrease in RV shipments, a 23% decrease in marine shipments and a 22% decrease in manufactured housing shipments. Gross margin increased 170 basis points to 23%, which was the result of our strategic diversification, acquisitions, cost reduction initiatives, investments in automation and continuous improvement and operational efficiencies. Warehouse and delivery expenses declined $2 million to $38 million in Q3 2023, increasing 70 basis points as a percentage of sales due to lower revenue and partially due to acquisitions completed this year. SG&A expense declined $14 million or 17% to $71 million in the third quarter of 2023. SG&A increased 60 basis points as a percentage of sales on lower revenue. Additional factors included higher insurance, software and technology and nonrecurring reorganization expenses. Operating income decreased $22 million. Our operating margin remained resilient, decreasing just 10 basis points to 8.2%, driven by the previously described factors. Net income decreased 33% to $40 million, which equates to $1.81 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA was $113 million versus $131 million last year. However, adjusted EBITDA margin increased 130 basis points to 13.1% for the third quarter of 2023. Our overall effective tax rate was 27% for the third quarter compared to 24.1% in the prior year. We continue to estimate our overall effective tax rate for 2023 to be approximately 25% to 26%. Looking at cash flows. Cash provided by operations for the first nine months of 2023 was approximately $294 million, an increase of $64 million or 28% compared to approximately $230 million in the prior year's period. As Andy noted, our solid financial results, coupled with our prudent balance sheet management has resulted in strong cash flow.…

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Scott Stember with Roth MKM. Please proceed with your questions. Mr. Stember, perhaps your line is muted. Live for questions.

Sorry about that. Yeah, I forgot where the mute button was. Sorry about that. Could you guys talk about apparently a little bit of a stalemate going on with dealers and OEMs, whether it's pricing on '24 product or dealers looking for some help on floor plan. Could you just maybe talk about what you're hearing. Has there been any movement on that front on the order process? And when would you expect that to start to break through a little bit?

Yes, Scott, this is Jeff. Really coming out of Open House, we didn't expect a lot of orders immediately from the Open House, more of a planning between OEMs and dealers, how they wanted to spread their orders between the fourth quarter and getting into the selling season of the first quarter. So we've continued to see production levels pretty consistent through the end of the third quarter into the fourth quarter. We will see some shutdowns around Thanksgiving and Christmas, pretty traditional from what we've seen in the past. And we expect with the dealer inventory levels at the level that they are currently that we'll see some upside going into the first quarter based on their need to have product for the selling season. So I will tell you that the OEMs continue to remain disciplined with their production levels, which I think is managing the inventories out in the field and putting them in a really good position as we move forward.

Got it. And then on the aftermarket side of the business, can you maybe talk about how that performed in the quarter, mainly in Marine, I suppose, and off-road vehicle and just talk about the prospects for next year, particularly if we are going into some form of a recession.

Sure, Scott, this is Andy. I think that our aftermarket business was actually down just a little bit, which has been consistent with where it's been for a lot of the year. That being said, the margin profile on that business for us is very strong. And so it's performing a little bit better than our expectations as it relates to the margin, which is some of the benefit we've seen on that aftermarket side. So we're optimistic about it. I think, especially as you look at trends that we would expect as it relates to discipline and where this financing environment is at from a purchase of new units we certainly would expect to see the aftermarket play a more countercyclical role as it relates to the average user out there, upgrading their unit with aftermarket products. So we're optimistic about it. It's held up from our perspective. It's been -- I should say, it's been down a little bit, but held up from a margin perspective, which we feel really good about.

Just last question, a lot of news about one of your top RV customers starting to do -- or starting to bring some functions in-house becoming more vertically integrated. Can you talk about how that would affect Patrick and just from a bigger picture, what we can expect from a content impact going forward?

Sure. I think that as we look at our product portfolio out there, Scott, we've got, as we talked about, a little bit of a good, better, best product offering. We certainly expect to continue to partner with our customers. I like the innovation that we're seeing out there today just across the spectrum. And I think that's the push that we can get really excited about, especially with our advanced product evolution group and working with those customers to be able to develop products in partnership side by side with them. So we look at -- we have competition in all of our product categories, and we expect to be competitive in the product categories that we're in. So we still feel like we've got great partnerships with the OEMs in the space.

Got it. That's all I have for now. I'll jump back into the queue.

Thank you.

The next question is from the line of Daniel Moore with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for all the color. Maybe shift gears toward the margins. Gross margins are remarkably strong given the current level of demand. You expect to maintain those levels as we look to Q4 and into maybe H1 fiscal '24? Or are you seeing any pricing pressure work its way back to the supply chain at this stage?

Yes. Dan, this is Andy. I think as it relates to the margins, we expect a little bit of choppiness in Q4. It typically is one of the softer quarters seasonally for us. And would expect just a little bit of choppiness as it relates to that, but that's built into our model. I think as we look at 1H 2024, we're still feeling like our margin profile is solid. The investments that we've made in automation without question are paying off. Our team has done a fabulous job of managing the labor force. And we've also sized the businesses according to the revenue stream that we're seeing today. So I think when we look across the spectrum in all of our businesses and we look at where the industries are at we feel like we've modeled the business to that platform and can flex up or down if we need to. But the leverageability going up for us will be solid. But I think as we look at our gross margins, a lot of the investments. The team has just done an absolutely fantastic job of managing the business, taking out costs, relying on the automation to generate throughput and efficiency and then continuous improvement initiatives that we've implemented across the spectrum continue to help drive those. So we're going to stay focused on that. And the goal would be to continue to, again, drive efficiencies and throughput and then really be able to leverage when we see the markets pick up.

Excellent. And obviously -- great color on your outlook for each of the verticals as we look into next year. In terms of just cadence, do you expect much of a difference, if any, in terms of shipments, H1 to H2? Do you see things kind of slow -- starting out a little slower and then picking up in either of the three main businesses were relatively consistent across the year?

I think what we expect is a more normal seasonality than we've seen in the past as it relates to production and retail. And I think when you kind of look at where inventory is at today, low, low level of weeks on hand, dealers being very, very thoughtful about the inventories that they're carrying. The OEs matched up to be able to produce. We would expect a more seasonal cadence. But again, like I said, I think we're balanced with what we see today as it relates to production levels and sized appropriately. So as we look at it, what I would tell you is we're watching retail certainly. But with the balance and the calibration that we see in the field today, between manufacturing, production and retail. We feel really good about the ability to flex across the spectrum.

Excellent. Last one, I'll jump out. Free cash flow has been exceptional. Is there any more working capital left to unwind? Or should we expect it to be more neutral going forward, at least until demand starts to recover? Thank you.

Yes. I think that from a working capital perspective, our team, again, has done an absolutely fantastic job of managing inventories in partnership with our customers. And I don't know that there's a ton of working capital to ring out. We do expect to be -- have over $400 million of operating cash at the end of this year, which is really in line with where our expectations were at. In fact, I think, as we look out into the future, one of the things that we're in a really advantageous position as it relates to the strength of our balance sheet in our liquidity is we're looking and saying, okay, if the manufacturing does go up, we want to make sure that we're positioned and we can be positioned with the appropriate levels of inventory when it does flex up. So we're talking to our OEM partners today about production and where their expectations are to make sure that we're positioned to be able to flex up if we need to add some working capital. So again, I think across the platform, our team has done a fabulous job of managing working capital

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Mike Swartz with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your questions.

Hey, good morning, guys. Maybe just to start on the commentary around your outlook for the marine market for 2024. I think if I heard you right, you said you expect retail to be down 15%. I think that's one of the more bearish views I've heard, and I think that would put us right on the cusp of kind of the depth of great recession demand levels. So maybe just a little color on maybe how you're thinking about the year in Marine and maybe how you got to that number?

Sure, Mike. This is Andy. I think as we look out, right now, we feel, again, that production and retail are very well aligned to kind of one for one. And we're being cautious. As we noted, marine retail has been stronger than we expected. So I would tell you that we're being cautious in modeling our business around that number. And we certainly think that there's some upside potential as you look at the numbers that are there, but we want to make sure that we're thoughtful, as I talked, our business is balanced as it relates to the revenue stream matched against our cost structure. And so as we look at Marine right now, production levels that we're seeing, tremendous discipline is what I would say in the space. So we're not concerned about over inventory or the ability to produce. We're just staying cautious as it relates to what it could look like in this environment and that's how we are building our model with upside potential to flex very easily in the event that shipments are better than that. So we've got a cautious outlook, but the caution is just simply around where we're centered today and the ability to flex up very quickly if we need to.

Okay. That's perfect. And then just on -- with -- we've all heard the stories of where model year '24 pricing has gone in RV in some instances, down double digits in towables, there's a lot of talk about de-contenting to hit some of those price points. Maybe give us just a back drop of what you're seeing? And I guess, how much risk do you think the de-contenting dynamic presents to Patrick in terms of your content loads going forward?

Yeah, Mike, this is Jeff. I think what we've really seen after the model change was not necessarily a lot of de-contenting, but the offering or bringing in smaller floor plans -- introductory floor plans and trying to hit that lower end of the market. We've seen a little bit more of that in the production levels over the last couple of months, really kind of the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. So to that sense, it's not necessarily de-contenting as much as not as much content in some of the units that are being built on the smaller range. From a Patrick perspective, I believe, we're in pretty good shape with our content per unit, primarily because of the business we picked up and the market share we've been able to gain over the last 12 months. It's been pretty incredible what our team has done. They've gone out. Really pushed hard in that area and we've seen significant growth in the range of about $150 million over the last 12 months. So I think that's going to really offset anything that is in the lower end units, but we -- in our normal standard units, we haven't seen a ton of de-contenting. So we feel pretty good about where we stand today.

And clarification, that $150 million is something that you anticipate going forward? Or is that something that's already been realized?

Annualized.

Okay. Perfect. And then just one more for me, if you will, just the typical breakout between M&A, share, price, and I think you said industry volume was off 22%. So that's easy.

Yes. Mike, this is Matt filer. So the 22% revenue decrease that we saw in the quarter. As you mentioned, industry is down across our end markets, about 21%. Our net organic impact is down 3% and then acquisitions had a positive 2% impact. And if you break down that organic impact, pricing is down 5% and pure organic growth is up 2%.

Awesome. Thank you so much.

Thank you.

Our next question is from the line of Noah Zatzkin with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Most of my questions have been asked and answered, but just hoping you could provide some color on how you're thinking about M&A in the current environment and valuations. Thanks.

This is Andy. Yes. I think, again, as we talked about from a liquidity perspective and a leverage perspective, we feel really good about our positioning right now to be able to actively look at and evaluate acquisitions. Our pipeline continues to be full, both organically and we are getting deal flow. Deal flow has actually slowed down from external participants, but the deals that we're cultivating, which we are constantly doing on the organic side continue to be there. And as we look at valuations I would tell you that valuations are stable from our perspective. I think as we look at modeling where everybody -- where the disconnect today is that on a normalized run rate basis with valuation expectations is really kind of just the gap that's there today. But as we look at our model and we look at where we're at and the businesses that are attractive to us, we feel like we're in a really good position to be offensive if we want to here with the liquidity position that we've got and as well the leverage position. So we're going to take advantage of opportunities that pop up, but we are also actively cultivating acquisition targets as well.

Thank you.

Our next question is from the line of Craig Kennison with Baird. Please proceed with your questions.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Many have been addressed already, but I wanted to circle back on content per unit. Came in a little above where we had anticipated, but I know it's an LTM metric. And I'm wondering, as you look into 2024, what's a reasonable expectation for content per unit in RV and marine specifically?

Yes, Craig, this is Jeff. We feel like in through the fourth quarter and into the first part of the next year, our content per unit is going to remain relatively flat from where we are. There will be some pricing movement in a few areas, maybe down and some up. But certainly, some of the increased market share we've been able to gain is going to offset anything that we see in the pricing.

And that flat as a comment relative to your Q3 experience?

That's correct.

Okay. Great. Thanks. And then again, looking at 2024, I know it's early, but just -- what are some of the puts and takes as you consider the margin profile of your business? And if you can comment on whether labor rates are at all impacted by some of the UAW contract or any other pressures that are facing that environment.

Yes. Craig, I think as we look out into '24, again, we feel good about our cost structure today with where we're at. We actively partner with our customers from a pricing perspective as commodities move up and down and work very well with them in partnership from my perspective. So as we look at those, that component, the labor side of the business is very stable for us. We've got a great core group of labor, talent out there that is doing a fabulous job that is flexible and nimble. So we feel good about that. I think as we just look at the model today and where we're stabilized and looking out in the future and positioned. I think we look and say, okay, we're in a good spot. We can flex up very quickly and leverage off of that. And if we need to take some more cost out, we certainly can do that and we'll do that very prudently. So overall, as we look at the cost structure and the puts and takes, I feel like we can continue to be very flexible and nimble with our business model our team is just really good at that. And so I've been so impressed with what they've been able to do in the way that they proactively manage the business has been super invigorating from our perspective. So we feel like we can be flexible and nimble and flex with wherever volumes are at as we look at going forward. Obviously, there's macroeconomic concerns out there, but we are positioned very well to continue to flex.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Griffin Bryan with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your questions.

Yeah, thanks. Just one for me. So in terms of the enhanced dealer inventory for both marine and RV, do you think this returns to its historical norm or these current levels and new run rate going forward over the medium to long-term? Thanks.

Griffin, we're planning our business around the current weeks on hand levels, which we believe are obviously very low given the interest rate environment and we certainly appreciate the prudence that both OEMs and dealers are using today to minimize floor plan financing costs. So from our perspective, we're at a low level of weeks on hand, lower than we would have anticipated. But it's been calibrated from our perspective. And so I think our modeling is centered around consistent weeks on hand. We're not planning anything up. If it does go up, then we would expect some restocking and we will certainly participate in flex with that. But right now, we're building our model off of consistent weeks on hand.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, I'll turn it over to Andy for closing remarks.

I want to end the call by once again expressing my sincere gratitude to our talented team members were the reason for our success. Their dedication and commitment are instrumental to Patrick continuing to be a customer-focused supplier that empowers enthusiasts on the road, on the water and at home. We find inspiration in the resilience displayed by our team despite the wide range of market and industry changes we've seen in the past few years. This resilience gives us the confidence that we can navigate any challenges that come our way and we will continue to utilize our operational and financial levers appropriately to drive sustainable growth and deliver long-term value to our shareholders. We thank everyone who has joined us on the call today.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect your lines.