Joseph Israel
Analyst · Becker Drapkin Management.
Yes. So you are talking about the $2 to $4 a barrel on a net margin level, which is an EBITDA level, which is a good indication for where we think our profitability is in mid-cycle environment. Now define mid-cycle, 3, 5 years average. This is post the Mid Pac so multiplied by the barrels, you are talking about $75 million EBITDA for a year. I would just add that for me, some of the operations improvement that we have going will be in addition to that. So whether it's going to be a $0.50 or $1 or $1.50, time will tell. But this is where we're going to work very hard in the next 6 to 12 months. And these are the low-hanging fruits that I referred to in my prepared remarks. And there is a reason they are considered low-hanging fruits. Look at this refinery in the last 2 years. It went through a sale process, and then it went through a long shutdown and a long start-up. And the focus for most of the year hasn't been really operations excellence; there were other things on the priority list, catching up with people, catching up with positions. But here is a refinery that in the last 2 years they stayed a little bit behind, this is pretty clear that we have some opportunities. So I would add this one dollar a barrel, call it, for now, over your $2 to $4. And this is probably where our mid-cycle profitability is. And then just to - since we are introducing here the benchmark, the indexes to the market, let's define a mid-cycle. If you look at 4-1-2-1 in the past, say, 3 years, that was $8 a barrel, and we described how we calculate it in our 8-K. And there is another $0.17 a barrel, discount to Brent on the crude differential side. So I don't want to be too analytic, but qualitatively, $8.17 is probably a good mid-cycle. So we are talking about $11 fourth quarter, $11 first quarter, I hope this gives you a little bit flavor about what we consider favorable market conditions now.