Lida Wang
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. The first question is about is it encouraging to see positive cash flows but at the expense of very low CapEx including zero in upstream. I was wondering how long this low CapEx environment is sustainable without affecting the integrity of the reservoirs in upstream
Thank you, Margarita. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. I hope you all are safe and well. For the interest of time, I will make a brief summary of the quarter's key figures, the impact of COVID-19 and the latest events since our last call. We will focus on power and E&P, as TGS and Edenor already held their calls earlier this week. Our CEO, Gustavo Mariani and CFO, Gabriel Cohen are both here and joining us for Q&A. Before we begin, let me remind you that Pampa’s figures follow U.S. Dollar as functional currency. In the case of Peso-linked subsidiaries such as our utilities, their figures are adjusted by inflation and shown in dollars at the end of each reporting period FX. So you also can see in this slide which businesses are included when we talk about of Pampa consolidated and Pampa restricted group, a definition we use for covenant purposes. Compared to last quarter Q3 has not been so active, as the lockdown is easing up and the economy rebounded, readily improving but still not back to pre-COVID-19 levels. During Q3 the Argentine economy is estimated to have fallen by around 11% year-on-year, better than 19% recorded in Q2. We expect the normalization keep coming along, as the country is entering into a more flexible quarantine phase. Pampa achieved robust figures this quarter, as a result of higher pricing due to winter peak season, solid operational performance across all our businesses and the contribution from our new CCGT at Genelba, which is building a 15-year PPA. Because of uncertain environment at upstream, combination of expansionary investment cycle at power generation, OpEx discipline and higher sales, our operating cash flow boosted during Q3, 2020. Helping to keep buybacks and offset the payment delays from CAMMESA experienced in the quarter. And finally, a few weeks ago the government announced a new gas incentive scheme to foster investments for domestic production, although, the initial -- the official regulation has not been released yet. Beforehand, we believe this should be created to our upstream product business. So let's start commenting the quarter's key takeaways. As shown on slide five revenues increased 5% year-on-year to $689 million, mainly contributed by Genelba’s new PPA and because of the strong real devaluation in Q3 last year, affecting our utility businesses. Partially offset by lower fuel self-supply as CAMMESA took over most of the grid fuel consumption lower prices and volumes of oil and gas fall and lever spot prices and dispatch. In Q3 2020, around 45% of our sales were dollar-linked but roughly 50% in EBITDA -- 70% in EBITDA terms, mainly coming from our core businesses PPA, power capacity followed by E&P. Adjusted EBITDA, maintained stable by only reducing 3% year-on-year, amounting to $234 million for the quarter, mainly explained by lower E&P price and volume, tariff free and builders and lesser legacy of power generation. Partially offset by Genelba PPA, lower E&P OpEx and royalties related to activity downturn and the evolution of the Peso-denominated cost because of depreciation. Quarter-on-quarter EBITDA almost doubled, thanks to the Genelba’s CCGT PPA. The big season having higher spot prices for power and gas and increased sales at Edenor. As we show on right below electricity takes 71% of the consolidated adjusted EBITDA, mostly led by power generation while oil and gas exposure hedged 29% driven by gas and TGS. Moreover, as shown in the chart left below in the third quarter of this year our CapEx decreased significantly compared to last year, mainly because of drilling and completion activities at E&P are on standby due to the uncertain pricing environment, compared to the shale activities in Q3 last year. And also, because we finished Genelba Plus expansion project. Edenor's CapEx increased year-on-year due to the steep real devaluation in Q3 2019 partially offset by the lot on restrictions, tariff freeze and higher bad debt impacting Edenor's CapEx. On slide 7, during Q3, the lockdown effect diluted over the Argentine power grid, thanks to the winter season. The average demand reached 15 gigawatts, 2% to 3% lower than previous years, but better than other sectors of the Energia industry or GDP. Industries are still the most impacted by quarantine, especially non-essential. While this goes were hit because of the collative SME consumption, but partially offset by residential demand due to the stay at home order and colder water weather, as we are entering screen, electricity demand is expected to give in. Moving to Power Generation segment as seen on slide 7, during the third quarter of 2020, we posted an EBITDA of $132 million, very similar to the adjusted EBITDA of Q3 last year. Mainly given by Genelba CCGT contribution, higher B2B renewal sales as well as lower costs related to lower energy purchases and the deval impact on our peso denominated expenses. These effects were partially offset mainly by the reduction anticipation of spot prices as from February 2020 without any inflation adjustment. Quarter-on-quarter peak pricing for spot energy and higher dispatch in Q3 2020 contributed to the 49% increase in EBITDA. While spot energy comprises 59% of our capacity operated only 18% of our power generation EBITDA represented by spot market in the quarter and will keep shrinking one Ensenada Raban expansion is online and inflation keeps not happening. Generation in Q3 2020 was 3% lower year-on-year in line with the lower electricity demand in the national grid. Our free combined cycles at Loma and Genelba as well as our wind farms achieved high levels of low factor but the thermal units that solely depend on gas such as Energia the northwestern units were mostly not required in addition to lower generation of our hydro units. Because of the winter and hence reduced gas supply for power generation, our efficient dual fuel units of Popular and Energia white were highly requested. Quarter-on-quarter power generation raised by 16%, mainly because of the seasonality. Despite the demand contraction weakness in the country, the power generation business model relies on capacity payments. So, lower dispatch does not much impact on the revenue making as long as the availability is outstanding especially for PPA-based energy. The availability rate in Q3 2020 reached 98.6% with a full capacity of five gigawatts operated by Pampa very similar to year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter performance. Regarding our remaining expansions in the pipeline, our key project now is the closing to CCGT at Genelba thermal power plant. As you can see on slide eight, this is a 280-megawatt CCGT project at the South of Greater Buenos Aires which is critical infrastructure for Argentina. We've already placed the different chain server order for the cooling tower. So currently we are working on cementing its foundation base. We are also finishing the turbines building installing the main time lines and prepaying all remaining equipment. 250 people are right now at the site working at the strictest protocols in place to minimize circulation of COVID. Natural gas consumption rebounded as expected because of the winter. But domestic production is severally depleting due to weak investment landscape that began about year and a half ago. The graph we see in the slide shows the evolution of production and the dependency on gas imports and liquids to fulfill the demand which are more inefficient and paid with our currency way more expensive than local gas, et cetera. As domestic production increase, import reliance fell until 2020. In Q3, the production fell 10% year-on-year coloring demand deficit liquid fuels as LNG and Bolivian gas were taken at maximum capacity. Should this situation prevail depletion will come along and the country will need to restore the LNG facility that was dismissed in 2018 plus increase liquids product consumption all in detriment of reserves subsidies and GDP. However, the implementation of plant gas four should be soon and reverse this trend. So moving on to the results of E&P as you can see on slide 10. In Q3 2020, we posted an adjusted EBITDA of $36 million, 31% lower than the Q3 2019, mainly because of lower prices and to a less extent production volume partially offset by lesser cost and royalty. In terms of operating efficiency, we recorded $23 million of listing costs, 44% improvement compared to Q3 last year mainly driven by the valuation efficiency and lower activity at less competitive lots given the current market prices. Measured by unit, we reached a lift in cost of $5.50 per BOE produced contributed by the outstanding productivity at El Mangrullo block. So we become more active as we did this quarter? Listing costs may go higher, but most of the savings are efficiencies gains -- gained to this segment. Despite the tough environment, our oil and gas production decreased only 6% year-on-year, but increased 7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2020. Reaching 47,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of which 91% is composed by natural gas. The quarter-on-quarter rebound is explained by seasonality. On the oil side which represented almost 20% of our segment revenue in the quarter. Volumes saw decreased 11% year-on-year to 4.2 barrels per day mainly due to the decline in demand and prices because of the lockdown resulting in activity standby, partially offset by conventional production from Chirete, which last month was granted to Pampa, Hila a 25-year exploitation concession Rio Limay Este. During Q3 2020, crude oil prices decreased by 18% year-on-year reaching to $40 per barrel bouncing back from the fall caused by COVID-19 in Q2. Despite domestic demand collapsed due to the lockdown Pampa was able to explore almost 75% of its production at discounted price on rent. 53% of our oil production is Escalante heavy oil which is sweet and given the current green fuel trend is pricing premium. However, last September, local market started to recover and we resumed sales. Regarding gas, as we can see in slide 11. Q3 '20 reached an average of 264 million cubic feet per day of volumes sold, 15% lower year-on-year. Mainly due to lower trading and to a lesser extent 5% inter annual decrease on production. Compared to last quarter volumes sold recovered 4% as a production raise to attend winter demand despite challenging prices. Lower pricing impact negatively on the breakeven equation thus producers respond with a lesser drilling rate and higher depletion takes place. And because of that production was lower at our gas bearing blocks, but were partially offset by increases at El Mangrullo block with outstanding productivity fully owned and operated by us. In Q3 '20, El Mangrullo reached 174 million cubic feet per day of gas production, 14% higher than Q3 2019 and contributed close to 70% of our overall gas. Ranked the four largest gas-producing block at Neuquina basin. Moreover, 6% of our production was shale gas from the completion of two horizontal wells at El Mangrullo Block last year. As we are not connecting more wells shale production will keep deluded. During Q3 2020 our average price of gas was $2.50 per million BTU. 25% less than Q3 2019 driven by the sharp reduction on CAMMESA winter reference price for gas higher at power plants also affecting the industrial and stock prices. Though CAMMESA prices during Q3 '20 were around 2.5% reflecting the high demand business due to the winter season, since October with the spring season prices are roughly $2 less, back again to the lowest in year and barely covering the replacement costs impacting that investment horizon. Also as you can see right below our production year today it is skewed towards CAMMESA for placing an increase of -- for vertical integration as we've been procuring owned gas for Genelba Plus dispatch, rising from the last call's 14% sell share to 22% sell share. The exports to Chile ended on mid-May and we are awaiting Secretary of Energy’s clearance to resume. Due to primarily uncertainty in gas prices, we reassess our activities with no drilling and completion registered in Q3 '20 in line with the sector. Moving on the bottom line of the P&L, Pampa reported a consolidated gain of $78 million in the third quarter of 2020, whereas in the same period of 2019, a $116 million was reported mainly explained by Edenor and power legacy credit liability realization agreement and lower operating in oil and gas -- operating margin in oil and gas partially offset by higher profits in our equity income. Finally we are on the Slide 13, our sound balance sheet brings us some degrees of freedom during this challenging environment. In this slide we show the layers of the company from restricted to consolidated figures. But for covenant purposes, let's focus on the restricted group. That is primarily Pampa parent company. We continue optimizing every asset of our investments, highlighting that during Q3 2020 Pampa engaged in all peso incremental borrowings of $64 million including deval effect. We also repurchased bonds for $34 million in value. Therefore the restrictive group gross debt recorded $1.6 billion in September similar to last year. The gross debt is 87% denominating in U.S. dollars which was at 89% in June 2020 bearing an average interest rate of 7.7%. Average life decreased from 5.3 years to 4.9 years, the cash amounted to $352 million which is 11% lower than the $393 million in June 2020, mainly due to buybacks and deterioration of the working capital as DSO reached to 92-days combined with higher billings, offset by positive operating cash flow and net peso borrowing. The restricted groups net debt remained similar to last quarter below $1.3 billion and net leverage ratio stayed at 2.8 times. After Q3 we paid a maturity $23 million of peso debt in addition to $8 million of face value bond buyback and some share buybacks. It is worth highlighting that the cumulative maturities from now until 2022 included amount to $249 million of which 92% is denominated in pesos. Pampa consolidated with affiliates recorded a net debt of $1.5 billion, 2 times net leverage ratio similar to last year. After Q3 Edenor paid the last amortization of $13 million but redeemed $130 million of debt securities and amended its amortization schedule, which once approved will ease its maturity profile for the next two years. Regarding share buyback. Next month we are holding our shareholders meeting to ask to cancel treasury shares up to $6.4 million ADRs. As of today, we hold $5.6 million ADRs in treasury thus our outstanding capital amounts to $58.2 million ADRs. Also the Board approved a new program for up to $30 million which -- with a price cap of $12 per ADR. So this concludes my presentation. We are going back to Margarita. So we can pass all our Q&A. Please gather through the platform. This is the gain that we have from COVID. We can do it all in line.