Earnings Labs

Pampa Energía S.A. (PAM)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 15, 2018

$82.77

+0.77%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Pampa Energía's '18 Results Conference Call. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Pampa Energía's management and on information currently available to both companies. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore, depend and circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Pampa Energía and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I'll turn the conference over to Lida Wang, Investor Relations officer of Pampa Energía. Ms. Wang, you may begin your conference.

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. We will briefly go through every business segment, reviewing the quarter's key figures and the latest events since our last call in May, and then head straight to the Q&A. As you know, you can always reach us out for more details on the results or any doubts you may have. Remember, our strong 2018 and for the comparative periods, we are redistributing corporate expenses among the operating segments that is power generation, oil and gas and petrochemicals. Also, we are not considering divested assets at oil and gas and refining and distribution segments, which are reported as discontinuing operations. So as you can see on Slide 4, beginning with adjusted EBITDA, in the second quarter of 2018 we recorded ARS7.5 billion, 134% more compared to an EBITDA of ARS3.2 billion in the same period in 2017. The large variation was due to increases of ARS1.6 billion in power generation, ARS1.2 billion in electricity distribution, ARS487 million in oil and gas segment, ARS44 million in petrochemicals segment and ARS926 million in holding and others plus intersegment eliminations, partially offset by a decrease of ARS49 million in refining and distribution. The higher EBITDA of ARS1.6 billion at our power generation segment was mainly driven by the large peso devaluation experienced since May of this year, therefore, impacting all our power generation sales reaching invoices in U.S. dollars, in addition to the full fare billing since November 2017 for the legacy capacity, which currently is 75% of our total of 3.9 gigawatts installed capacity. In Q2 2017, we were remunerated under a lower fair minimum and base as the new legacy scheme was implemented gradually throughout 2017. Moreover, higher dispatch at Pichi Picún Leufú because of the rainy season and new…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Frank McGann with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Frank McGann

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Now I was wondering if you could just provide a little bit of view on how you see production, both oil and gas, developing over the next six to 18 months through 2019 in terms of drilling plans and how you think that will affect overall level of production. And then in terms of gas prices, there have been, obviously, a lot of changes and still some uncertainty, but the market seems to be moving into a position where gas supply is going to be much more available, and therefore, the government seems to have the flexibility to become a little bit more open, I guess, in terms of how prices are set. And I was just wondering what you think the longer-term prices will be for gas prices as we move into a more competitive market.

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

And production, this is a very good question. Oil is declining for the natural depletion. In production of gas, now we are stable at 7 million cubic feet -- cubic meters per day as you see, moving like that, but we are capped by the capacity. So in El Mangrullo, we are building new facilities to open more production there for 500,000 cubic meters per day. We also are increasing our capacity there in the Río Neuquén, the production there. Now it's in June, it's 4 million cubic meters per day, but currently right now, Río Neuquén is producing 4.7 million cubic meters per day. Remember that in that block, we have 33% stake. So by -- and in Río Neuquén, we are aiming at increasing the production beyond 5 million cubic meters per day. So your question about the end of the year production, we are envisioning at 7.5 cubic meters per day -- million cubic meters per day at the end of the year. For the next year, it's still unknown, but I think it's around there. In the oil, I answered. In the prices, the long term, this is such a difficult question. It's quite uncertain right now. So I think we'll have to yet see how everything will deploy.

Frank McGann

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Okay, if I can follow up just on another question. You mentioned the virgin naphtha supply is limiting some of your production in petrochemicals. I was just wondering do you have a claim against the refinery that's supposed to supply that? Or is that just something that you no longer have the supply, so you will lose those sales?

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

No, what we're doing is that -- so Oil Combustibles have the refinery there. They broke and they went out of business and the agreement was they will supply us with virgin naphtha, and we will give them the value added from that, okay? So we are importing or we are buying from third parties the virgin naphtha. So that's what we're doing. But of course, we're like kind of seeing what's the outlook of the market, which is not very, very promising.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Rodolfo De Angele with JP Morgan.

Rodolfo Angele

Analyst · JP Morgan

You mentioned that you're currently in the application process for the unconventional gas plan. Can you just update us on what's the expected time line, if any, next steps? It is just wait and see at this point? And my second question is on the -- also recently announced changes with CAMMESA capping the prices of gas that they are paying for generation. I just wanted to hear your thoughts on how is Pampa going to deal with this? What's the new strategy? Should we see the company trying to sell more into other segments? Any insights would be very welcome.

Lida Wang

Analyst · JP Morgan

So regarding the -- if I understood well your first question about the 419 to make a new Plan Gas, so we file the -- for the three main blocks, we already filed before the Ministry of Energy. It's just pending from their review. I guess it's in the queue. And for Rincón del Mangrullo, we are, I think it's going to be very soon out from the province and going after in the queue in the Ministry of Energy. So let's see. Then you said about the prices of gas in the case of power generation. It's too early to tell how our strategy is going to deploy because everything's very recent, right? But right now, we have a contract called Gas Plus with CAMMESA, okay, and we are fulfilling with that. It's not very much. It's less than 2 million cubic meters per day. And also, we are refining our strategy to focus more on the large users' demand. So we are selling to them. Right now, it's high pricing, but the demand of large users. But we are staying at 5.5 until we have the approval to clearance from the 419 and the Plan Gas II, we will make sure that we record that, and that will be reflected in our average accrued sales price.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Gustavo Fingeret with Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead.

Gustavo Fingeret

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead

One quick question regarding the price of gas for power generation. You mentioned that the reference price is $4.2 per million BTU. And what you think is going to be next winter, considering that Argentina is a net importer, especially during the winter period and it no available gas at $4.2 per million BTU? What do you think is going to happen? Prices will go up? Then your reference price will be higher, and you expect a lower production moving forward in the midterm. What are your expectations here?

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead

So first of all, it's still, we don't know how the auctions mainly by CAMMESA will be developed, okay? We still don't know if they are going to do it for only the summer season, for the whole year, so we don't know how that impact, how that will impact the local market. But it's true what you said. Winter is a very stressful moment of the year for the gas market, for the gas consumption demand because local gas production is short of the demand and we're importing. And yes, that's all factor is there but it's very early to tell how it's going to be developed in the next year. I hope I could give you a better answer than that.

Gustavo Fingeret

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead

And just one follow-up question is regarding -- do you expect that given the auctions on the gas prices, we will see some normalization on generation prices especially on the legacy plants?

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead

I'm sorry. Can you repeat the question? Because I didn't understand very well.

Gustavo Fingeret

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead

No basically, you were saying you have a legacy price -- prices for old plants, let's say. Now you have auctions on the price of the gas. So did you expect looking forward that we will see some normalization on generation prices especially for the legacy plants?

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead

Well, let's keep it very separate. The legacy remuneration without the fuel, we don't expect any changes on that, okay? We don't expect upward or downward, which is fair. Now this is true, that with the minister said in the press conference that but it's not yet in the papers, is that the legacy capacity will be -- will have to procure themselves the fuel. And it's yet not very clear how are going to be the terms for that. It's not very clear. It could be a positive thing, so that will contribute to their margin or not. We don't know because there's nothing out there yet.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Florencia Doris from PPCS. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · PPCS. Please go ahead

Just I would like to ask you for any update of the sale of government stake on ENARSA's plant.

Lida Wang

Analyst · PPCS. Please go ahead

Is that your only question, right? So basically, well, the stake is public. There's a time line for that. I think in September 19? September 19 is the last day, September 19, right, is the last day to submit the bids. And in October 2, we will know who's going to be awarded. And I think in the last few days, all the technical teams from the bidders, they went to see the plant and to see how they work, so that's the whole thing. There's nothing more than that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Monroy with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Alex Monroy

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

I have two questions. First question is have you guys had any approaches from ENARSA or anybody with respect to changing the capacity payment for your legacy generation or imposing limits on the effects that can be transferred through to those? And then also, have you guys had any approaches on any potential changes on the PPAs that you had gotten recently by the Macri government? And then my final question is, there was an item in the news that suggested that your address popped up in the famous notebooks for an entry dating back to 2009. Has there been anything that happened in that respect? Have authorities contacted you? Or has there been any sort of follow-up?

Lida Wang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

About your first question, about the legacy capacity remuneration of the PPAs, we don't expect any changes at all. That's very quick. Regarding second question...

Alex Monroy

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

So just to be clear, you're still getting paid for those in dollars, no problem?

Lida Wang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Yes. That's what it is. And regarding your second question, we are aware of the fact that you are mentioning, which we saw that in the media, specifically the mention of our former address in the notebooks attributed to this Mr. Centeno. But we do not know him at all. In accordance with Pampa's policies regarding disclosure, and given that there is an ongoing traditional investigation related in so far as we know to the industry in which Pampa carries out its business, we may not and we will not make any comment at all. What we may confirm to you and everybody is that neither Pampa or either any officers of the company has been served with notice, any subpoena or any other form of judiciary request in connection to this investigation. And there have not been any searches, judicial searches or raids in Pampa's office nor have been notified of any search warrant or [indiscernible] measures so far. This is very important. Of course, that has always been the case of Pampa and we -- Pampa and the senior management and everybody, we are available to cooperate with the authorities in the investigation of the case, so if the intervening court, if the judge decides so. We can also confirm that Pampa has always acted in accordance with the applicable laws, and that according to our corporate governing standards, we are not -- we are conducting right now our own internal investigation regarding the mentioned facts, and we will communicate to the market if we have any material finding, if necessary.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Julián Ríos with Nomura Securities. Please go ahead. Julián Ríos: I have a couple of questions just to follow up. On the case of the legacy [indiscernible] payments that were dollarized last year in the PPAs, could you comment on the payment -- payments coming from CAMMESA? Have they been delayed in any manner? And if so, for how long? And secondly, I just wanted to clarify the proportion of your 7 million cubic meters per day in gas production that goes -- or is being sold to CAMMESA for end use of generators. I just want to get a sense as to what proportion of that is going to be subject to the lower prices.

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

So regarding your first question, CAMMESA, every like the 10 or 12 they have the due date. And for the last two due dates, the May transaction and now, August, the last Friday, I think in August 10th was the June transaction due date, they were paid perfectly 100% without any due date, okay? The only bump in the road that we have is that in the April transaction that was due in June, I think June 11th, they paid partially for the first time in 20 months. They called us and they told us, we have this -- it was common knowledge that the peso devaluated 50% in one month. So they paid us 70%. In the next two days, they performed the whole payment for the PPA. In the next two weeks, they performed the whole payment for the legacy capacity. So now, that was in June. In July, they paid perfectly for everybody. In August, the -- last Friday, they perfectly paid everything. And there is one thing I want to notice to you, that for the first time, when they partially paid and they delayed a little bit the payments in June, in the transaction of May, they paid the due -- the delay interest, something that never happened -- not never, but a long time, a long, long, long time it didn't happen at all. This is positive thing now. In the second question you asked me about the 7 million cubic meters of gas that we sell -- that we produce, let me tell you that actually we sell a little bit more. This is the thing that we produce 7 million cubic meters per day, and we sell some too, because we buy, we do trading as well. So actually, we sell on…

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Not at all. No one asked for a leave of absence or anything. And I mean, nor any -- made any further comments on that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Wolff with Grandmaster.

Patrick Wolff

Analyst · Grandmaster

I have two questions, I guess, both financial questions. The first one is probably a little bit more housekeeping. I just want to confirm, because there's no statement of cash flow in the release here. So I want to confirm that the other financial results expense due to the revaluation of the U.S. debt, that's a balance sheet revaluation that needs to flow through the income statement, but it's not a cash cost. Is that correct?

Lida Wang

Analyst · Grandmaster

That is correct. I'm sorry, sorry. That is correct. It's basically that you see this ARS13 billion that you see in the financial figures for the 6-month period and I think ARS11 billion in the second quarter that's noncash because 95% of our financial debt is U.S. dollar-denominated, while our assets are not. They are recorded in the financial statements in pesos at historical levels. This is a -- they are not adjusted by inflation at all. So that's why you can see this such a big loss.

Patrick Wolff

Analyst · Grandmaster

Yes, so I understand.

Lida Wang

Analyst · Grandmaster

It's a reporting thing.

Patrick Wolff

Analyst · Grandmaster

That's what I thought. And then the second question I guess, this is a little bit -- maybe a little bit more challenging. But I really like to ask you to explain and justify the share buyback program. So I think as you know, I've been investing in the stock for 2.5 years. I'm sure many other investors agree that the stock certainly seems cheap. But at the same time, I would note first of all clearly, this is a very difficult macroeconomic situation, as I'm sure I don't need to tell you and although Argentina has clearly much, much better leadership than some other countries like Turkey that's getting into a lot of trouble, nevertheless, Argentina clearly is vulnerable, the first point. The second point is you have taken dollars, which I would think given the macroeconomic situation be quite valuable. And you've taken those dollars and purchased ADR shares with them, which is essentially using dollars to buy your own peso-denominated assets, rather than using pesos to invest in your own business to build new oil -- to drill new wells, to build new electricity generation, to do all the things that you need to do, that presumably have a very high rate of return. And so I'm sitting here half a mile away -- half a world away as an investor and I'm really puzzled why you decided, why the company decided to spend dollars to buy its own peso-denominated assets in this particular time, rather than keep the dollars and invest pesos in all of these high-return investment projects that you have. It's quite frankly, it's kind of frustrating, and I'd really like to hear a good explanation. Are you there?

Lida Wang

Analyst · Grandmaster

Yes I'm here. Wait a second please. I'm sorry, Patrick. Because here, we have -- we do not agree with you there. Because we are -- we consider that we are repurchasing below three times EBITDA right now. And you said, well, your assets are peso denominated, yes for financial statements. Because in Argentina, we are enforced this kind of financial statements. They are not adjusted for inflation since 2002, right? So first, that's a -- what you see in the financial statements that's different from the reality. Now the parent company, power generation, E&P, petrochemicals in a very lower sense, they generate in dollars. So Pampa parent it's a 100% dollar generator of cash flow. So there, we have -- we see like one of a kind opportunity. The utilities are subsidiaries, so they are subsidiaries to Pampa, okay? We do invest -- we do aggressive investment in Pampa, in CapEx to achieve high returns. But they are again, returns for project that they generate in dollars. So that's why we see this is a great opportunity to buy back our own share at such a low multiple that in another SIDCO, there wouldn't be that multiple at all. This is -- we are located in a place that right now is -- there is turbulence. But the fundamentals of the assets are really good, and we still believe that, and that's how the management sees it.

Patrick Wolff

Analyst · Grandmaster

I mean look, as you know, I have tremendous respect and admiration for all the team and for what you've done. And I haven't sold a share, and I'm not going to sell a share. And Lord help me come if it gets low enough, I'll buy more. It's already a big position for me. I agree with you about the state of the company and the valuation. I think the point I'm making though is that if your costs are in pesos, and you're using dollars to buy your assets in, a period of time when even given the tremendous fundamental position you have at home, it's difficult to know what's going to happen in the world. And obviously, I don't need to tell you, Argentina can be buffeted by what happens, not just in terms of what the market does but in real things. But I think a lot of investors wonder, is the value disconnect so incredibly large that it's worth taking those dollars to buy back your own assets, rather than to keep the dollars to be in a stronger position as possible and just keep investing domestically? I think that's the question.

Lida Wang

Analyst · Grandmaster

Well, [Audio Gap] I understand your point. Here, we have a heated discussion because we really do not see that way. Again, we first of all, we are seeing that we are generating a lot of more value with the cash flow, instead of having it in our cash position that already is very strong enough. It's beyond 1 billion. In the stand-alone basis, it's almost $1 billion of cash. So besides that, we are buying an asset that there is no one to be seen. You can't see a kind of this quality of assets being bought at less than 3 times the EBITDA pro forma. So we are considering that we are buying cheap. In the meantime, because we wanted to give value to the investors, and we feel like tax-wise, it's more intelligent to repurchase shares than to distribute a dividend. This is because I don't know if you are familiar with in Argentina, there is enacted a new law saying that, for example, you can ask, okay, you can distribute dividends if you don't have nothing to do with it. Yes, we could, but there is a tax, very high, that's 35% for that. So we rather to give value to you as an investor and shareholder of Pampa to buy back shares, there's no tax in that. It's like a dividend. But again, we feel like we are buying back an asset that's right now and still it is and going forward, we believe that the fundamentals are very good. The quality of assets is nowhere to be seen in the world with this cash flow generation. And you said it, they are remunerated in dollars. The costs are largely in pesos. I think that there's nothing more that I can add there. I hope you can see my view here.

Patrick Wolff

Analyst · Grandmaster

No, absolutely. Thank you for the explanation. I do want to reiterate, tremendous respect and admiration for what you guys are doing. I certainly agree with the quality of the assets and so I hope you approved 100% correct on the capital allocation.

Lida Wang

Analyst · Grandmaster

Yes.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer section. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back to Ms. Wang for any closing remarks.

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Well, thank you very much for hearing this hour long call. Any questions you may have, please reach us out. We are here to help you and have a nice day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a nice day.