Lida Wang
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. We will briefly go through every business segment, reviewing the quarter's key figures and the latest events since our last call in May, and then head straight to the Q&A. As you know, you can always reach us out for more details on the results or any doubts you may have. Remember, our strong 2018 and for the comparative periods, we are redistributing corporate expenses among the operating segments that is power generation, oil and gas and petrochemicals. Also, we are not considering divested assets at oil and gas and refining and distribution segments, which are reported as discontinuing operations. So as you can see on Slide 4, beginning with adjusted EBITDA, in the second quarter of 2018 we recorded ARS7.5 billion, 134% more compared to an EBITDA of ARS3.2 billion in the same period in 2017. The large variation was due to increases of ARS1.6 billion in power generation, ARS1.2 billion in electricity distribution, ARS487 million in oil and gas segment, ARS44 million in petrochemicals segment and ARS926 million in holding and others plus intersegment eliminations, partially offset by a decrease of ARS49 million in refining and distribution. The higher EBITDA of ARS1.6 billion at our power generation segment was mainly driven by the large peso devaluation experienced since May of this year, therefore, impacting all our power generation sales reaching invoices in U.S. dollars, in addition to the full fare billing since November 2017 for the legacy capacity, which currently is 75% of our total of 3.9 gigawatts installed capacity. In Q2 2017, we were remunerated under a lower fair minimum and base as the new legacy scheme was implemented gradually throughout 2017. Moreover, higher dispatch at Pichi Picún Leufú because of the rainy season and new power generation also contributed to the EBITDA that on top of the new PPAs invoicing in Parque Pilar, Ingeniero White and Loma de la Lata, since June of this year, we commissioned our first wind farm, Mario Cebreiro, for 100 megawatts, which is also the first project of this size and using this technology to reach such a milestone under the RenovAr 1 tender. Pampa invested a total of ARS139 million, and we are proud to say the commercial operation date was achieved before the date originally stipulated in the PPA, showing our full commitment to the four projects we commissioned to date. On July 20, we achieved the generation record in the wind farm of 2.3 gigawatt hours, showing a load factor beyond 50%. The increases were partially offset by lower dispatch request at Piedra Buena and the open cycle turbine in Genelba power plant, plus lower generation at Diamante hydro power plant because of lower water flow. Also, we managed to maintain an outstanding availability rate of 98% with increased installed capacity, in comparison with 86% achieved in the same quarter of last year. This improvement is basically explained by Piedra Buena's poor performance during last year's outages from maintenances and also new units operation availability. Before I move on from power generation, I wanted to give you a quick update of our expansion projects. We began in Q4 last year with Genelba closing to CCGT for 383 megawatts as soon as we got awarded. And as you can see in the pictures in Slide 7, we finished tidying up the ground and have started to set the foundations for the new turbine. This plant will be operating as open cycle in Q2 2019 adding 187 megawatts and as a combined cycle in Q2 2020 adding another 196 megawatts. On the renewal front, we began with the construction of Pampa Energía II and III wind farms for 106 megawatts, which COD sets in second quarter of next year. In Parque Eólico Pampa Energía or PEPE III, as we call them, internal growth were finished and we started to build the foundations of the poles. In PEPE III, we are building the internal rows and the platform to place the tower's transformation station. In May, we announced a fourth wind farm expansion project named PEPE IV for 50 megawatts of installed capacity, which is located in Las Armas area in the province of Buenos Aires, and will be an additional investment of $74 million. Remember that the electricity generated from these three wind farms will be sold to large users through private PPAs, targeting their need to comply with the national renewables law. Moving on to the distribution segment, which was previously reviewed by Mr. Montero yesterday in Edenor's earnings call, as shown in Slide 9, during the second quarter of 2018, the EBITDA increased by ARS 1.2 billion compared to the same period of 2017, mainly because of the full fare billing on the distribution tariff granted within the Comprehensive Tariff Review, RTI as we call it, up from January 1, 2018, plus the cost variation recognized in August 2017 and February 2018 of cumulative 25%. Additionally, Edenor invoiced another 3 installments generated by the gradual application of 2017's tariff increase for ARS 395 million. The positive variation for Edenor's EBITDA was offset by the increased losses, showing 18.6% in the second quarter 2018 compared with 17.2% for the same period 2017, mainly explained by the colder weather in the area. Associated cost increased by 99% year-on-year due to the application of the new seasonal price tax, by the way, still subsidized compared to the full cost of generation. The Ministry of Energy announced that as from August 1, seasonal price of electricity will be raised from ARS1,100 per megawatt hour to ARS1,470 per megawatt hour for residential and SMEs, while large users in distribution were raised to ARS2,283 per megawatt hour. Though overall electricity sales did not experience significant changes, the EBITDA decrease is also explained by the decline in SME's demand in line with the economic downturn, partially offset by the stable consumption [indiscernible] in residential and aggregated large users consumption, mainly due to the elastic demand through tariff increase, but low temperatures compared to the Q2 2017 also impacted in their consumption behavior. In line with our actions for energy recovery, we experienced a 3% increase year-on-year on registered clients, mainly because of the installation of the special inclusion meters to foster self-management consumption and the integration of users having a non-regular income. Last, in electricity distribution, on July 31, Edenor agreed with the Ministry of Energy to differ 50% of the costs variation adjustment, without this implying a negative economic impact for Edenor or affecting the service quality parameters resulting from the tariff review. Therefore, the calculated cost variation was 16%, being 8% applicable as of August 1 and the balance of six monthly consecutive installments as from February 1, 2019, which shall be adjusted to the applicable cost variation index on that date. As part of the agreement to the first half of the cost of the variation increase, the Ministry of Energy agreed to carry out the necessary actions towards the realization of the outstanding regulatory asset and availability issue. He also agreed to promote the pending issues related to the energy consumption in shantytowns, known as Framework Agreement. In oil and gas segment, please note that we will only talk about continuing operations, not discontinued. In the second quarter of 2018, we posted an adjusted EBITDA of ARS2.1 billion, 31% higher than the Q2 2017. The EBITDA considered the crude oil utility company OldeVal's EBITDA adjusted by our 23.1% ownership, which contributed ARS53 million. The positive variation is also mainly due to the effect of the peso devaluation over the oil and gas dollar-linked sale prices, in addition to a higher oil price in dollars, partially offset by lower crude oil production due to the service remuneration at Medanito La Pampa block and lower accrual of Plan Gas second generation. We will refer to Plan Gas second generation to the incentive program in force in 2013 and expired in June 30 of this year. All former Petrobras Argentina's blocks were included within the set program, while former Petrolera Pampa's assets were included in the Plan Gas first generation. That one ended in December 2017. Our overall production in Q2 2018 declined 6% compared to Q2 2017, explained by lower crude oil production and reaching to 45,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which 90% is composed by 247 million cubic feet per day of natural gas, and the remaining 10% of this production by 4,800 barrels of crude oil per day. Regarding the gas production, in Q2 2018, it remains stable year-on-year and equal quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the increase in the drilling activity at El Mangrullo, Río Neuquén, which has also increased -- also recently increased its evacuation capacity, and shale development of Parva Negra Este block, offset by the natural decline and a lower drilling rate at Rincón del Mangrullo block. During the second quarter of 2018, our accrued weighted average sales price was $5.5 per MMBtu, of which 12% was contributed by the Plan Gas second generation subsidy. This price is 14% lower than the same period in 2017, as the company decided not to accrue Plan Gas second generation compensation corresponding to former Petrolera Pampa blocks until the Ministry of Energy issues the formal approval. It is worth mentioning that after merging Petrolera Pampa into Pampa Energía, being Pampa the continuing company as from October 2017, the company carried out all the necessary process to include former Petrolera Pampa blocks into Pampa's Plan Gas second generation. We are convinced that we are in entitled to the incentives. However, in light of the recent economic developments in the country as well as net new restrictions in fiscal policy binding in the IMF agreement, the management prefers to take a conservative approach until the resolution is actually issued. We expect to get approved because we understand all conditions requested by the program have been met. So in that case, we will accrue ARS 729 million for the 6-month period of 2018, and the Q2 2018 accrued average sales price for gas will be $6.1 per MMBtu. This negative effect was partially offset by 70% year-on-year increase on Plan Gas second generation accrual because of the peso devaluation and because higher incremental production at Pampa El Mangrullo and Río Neuquén blocks. In the oil side, the decline in production of 2,600 barrels of oil per day corresponding to the end of Petrolera Pampa service at Medanito La Pampa block, partially offset by higher production at El Mangrullo block, as of Q2 2017, this block was affected by weather conditions. During Q2 2018, the accrued sales price increased year-on-year by almost $11, reaching to $63.2 per barrel because the domestic price now correlates with international price of barrel to Brent. Keep in mind that Pampa's Plan Gas second generation ended on June 2018. So to date, we are not recording any incentive plan. So to qualify through Resolution 419 a.k.a. Plan Gas for unconventional resources, we needed that our four key blocks in gas to be categorized as unconventional through a 35-year extension in exploration license. The block Río Neuquén obtained such extension in 2017 -- '16, also Rincón del Mangrullo in 2017. And in that case, in June and July -- in that sense, in June and July of this year, El Mangrullo and Sierra Chata blocks were granted 35-year unconventional flotation concessions by the province of Neuquén. The committed investments during the next five years are $205 million at El Mangrullo block and $520 million at Sierra Chata block, aiming to continue developing tight gas at Mulichinco and Agrio formation and explore the shale gas potential of the Vaca Muerta formation. Remember that Sierra Chata's block figures are 100% and Pampa's contribution in -- according to each state is 45% to 55%. El Mangrullo is 100% owned by Pampa, both El Mangrullo and Sierra Chata are operated by Pampa. Pampa Energía has filed its application for the new Plan Gas for unconventional resources awhile ago. Once we get approved by the Ministry of Energy, we will start recording the compensation in our P&L retroactively for the period approved. Neuquén province has already approved our gas project in El Mangrullo, Río Neuquén and Sierra Chata blocks. Therefore, Ministry of Energy's clearance is pending on these blocks. We are awaiting approval from Neuquén province for the Rincón El Mangrullo block as we have to resubmit the filing. During the second quarter of 2018, we continue with our investment budget plan, which was downward adjusted due to the delay in the granting of Sierra Chata and El Mangrullo blocks unconventional exploitation concession. Therefore, we are budgeting, for the year, 65 wells to be drilled and 69 to be completed. Being in both cases, still more than 50% targeting unconventional gas. As of June 2018, 33 wells were drilled and 28 were completed, expecting an acceleration in the drilling activity onwards. Our focus is the development of blocks with tight gas reservoir, which are available at El Mangrullo, Rio Neuquén, Sierra Chata and Río -- Rincón del Mangrullo. In these blocks, during Q2 2018, we drilled 12 tight gas wells and completed 5. Hence, Q2 2018 gas production run rate kept very similar to the past quarters' performance. In addition, regarding our shale activities as a result of our aforementioned license extensions, we will start our drilling campaign to Vaca Muerta formation at El Mangrullo and Sierra Chata blocks. We already hired a dedicated drilling rig of 7,500 psi for the three years -- next three years, extendable for two additional periods of three years. Finally, among other news in the oil and gas segment, on August 1st, the Ministry of Energy through Resolution 46-2018 set a new reference price for natural gas testing to power generation, fixing it a weighted average price of $4.2 per MMBtu, being $4.42 per MMBtu for the gas from Neuquen Basin. As of today, the company is still analyzing its impact and implementation. In the refining and marketing segment, we will only comment on our continuing operation, as the discontinued were gone on May 9 when Pampa closed the divestment in Trafigura. The EBITDA of this segment is basically Refinor's EBITDA adjusted by 28.5% ownership, which registered a loss of ARS29 million in Q2 2018 compared to an EBITDA gain of ARS20 million recorded in the same period of 2017. This increase is attributable to the decline in the refining margin as a result of higher crude oil cost in dollars and the difficulties impacting through the peso devaluation over the refined products side. In petrochemicals, we posted an EBITDA of ARS 45 million in the second quarter of 2018, ARS 44 million higher compared to the same period of 2017, mainly due to the high international pricing references denominated in U.S. dollars, partially offset by lower sales volume and higher operating and raw materials cost, which is also mostly denominated in U.S. dollars. The adjusted EBITDA does not consider the contingencies update with the customs for ARS 125 million. In operating terms, total sales volume in our petrochemicals segment decreased by 11% in the second quarter of 2018, totaling 95,000 tons compared to the second quarter of 2017, but 9% higher than this last quarter. This increase -- this decrease, sorry, mainly responds to the halt in the reforming plant as Oil Combustibles is out of business and is not delivering the virgin naphtha, resulting in lower production of reforming products for domestic sales, but partially offset by higher export sales of styrene and synthetic rubber. Finally, our holding and others segment presented an adjusted EBITDA of ARS 1.4 billion in the second quarter of 2018 compared to ARS 420 million in the same period of 2017. This is mainly due to the adjusted EBITDA by ownership from TGS and Transener, the higher income from fees and lower expenses, as they've been redistributed between the operating segments. TGS' EBITDA, adjusted by our indirect stake of 25.5%, contributed to Pampa almost ARS 1 billion in the quarter for an inclusive total of ARS 3.8 billion, significantly higher compared to the Q2 2017, mainly due to the tariff increase resulting from the RTI for gas transportation business, being implemented the full adjustment plus PPI adjustment in December 2017 and in April 2018. Moreover, the margin improvement in the liquids processing segment, which was due to higher dollar prices and local sales volumes, contributed to the EBITDA performance in TGS. The adjusted EBITDA in Q2 '18 excludes the charge for arbitration award of ARS 553 million as a result of a claim made by Pan American Energy against TGS back in 2015, in which they originally claimed $306 million, but they got awarded by ICC $21 million, interest included. Moreover, on June, TGS was granted a second tranche to the concession to build and operate a gathering gas pipeline crossing different blocks in the Vaca Muerta formation. The South Tranche will add 20 miles length and 800 million cubic feet per day of transportation capacity and will demand an investment of $41 million. Therefore, the total Vaca Muerta project will have 68 miles long pipeline with a transportation capacity of 2.1 Bcf per day, $300 million of investment and should be commissioned by second quarter next year. Also, TGS dropped the lawsuit against [indiscernible] before the exit, as a condition of the tariff review. In the case of Transener, its EBITDA, adjusted by our indirect shareholding of 26.3%, contributed ARS 313 million in the second quarter of 2018 for an implicit total of ARS1.2 billion, 40% higher than the same period in 2017, mainly explained by the application of RTI tariff scheme in only one installment after February 2017, the reconsideration award in October 2017 and the cost variations update in August 2017 and February 2018 of cumulative 24%. In July, the electricity regulator announced a Comprehensive Tariff Review for the independent power transmitters among TIBA, operated by our Transener's subsidiary Transba; the Fourth Line, operated by our subsidiary Transener; and Enecor, a subsidiary of Pampa. It was three business days to fulfill that information and we requested an extension. Moving to the latest news in the segment regarding the merger of former Petrobras Argentina, we finally swapped the outstanding 10% of Petrobras Argentina shares into Pampa. Also, we got clearance to undertake the second merger collapsing Petrolera Pampa and some power generation companies like Loma, Güemes and the hydro holdcos, issuing additional 144 million ordinary shares or 5.8 million ADRs. Moreover, the company fulfilled a $200 million share buyback program announced in April 27, and in June 22 launched a second $200 million program, repurchase program. Keep in mind, we can only repurchase 10% of our issued share capital. As of today, the company repurchased 5.7 million ADR at an average price of $45.2 per ADR, using this full first program and 28% of the second program. Therefore, next Wednesday after performing the outstanding merger swap that we were talking about, the final issued share capital will amount to 2,083 million shares or 83.3 million ADRs of Pampa, which as of yesterday net of repurchases will be 1.9 billion shares of Pampa or 77.6 million ADRs. In terms of net income attributable to the owners of the company, Pampa presented a consolidated loss of ARS2.7 billion in the second quarter of 2018 compared to ARS91 million in the same period of 2017. This is mainly explained by the accrual of ARS11.3 billion of losses due to the 43% peso depreciation against the dollar in the quarter, especially offset by better pricing as a result of tariff reviews, increases in remuneration and FX effects. Finally, moving on to news related to the debt in Slide 16, we must, again, highlight the low leverage of the company compared to other peers in the same industry and within the country as a result of the active liability management. As of June 30, 2018, the consolidated gross debt including affiliates at ownership stayed at $2.3 billion, of which 95% is denominated or linked with U.S. dollar, and 81% is placed at the parent. As we did with the corporate expenses in our earnings release, you can see how we are redistributing the debt and the cash among the operating businesses at the parent to properly reflect their capital structure. The average interest rates are 6.9% in U.S. dollars and 24.9% in pesos. Average life is 5.3 years. Cash, netting the share buyback after the quarter -- second quarter '18 closing, amounts to $1.1 billion, which is down from the $1.6 billion in March 2018, mainly because of the share repurchases of $256 million we've done so far, coupon payment of $15 million of the parent bond, some expansion capital divestment and the devaluation of the peso cash position. Now we are holding two thirds of our cash in U.S. dollars, therefore, net debt is $1.2 billion. So this concludes our presentation. Now I will turn the word to the operator, who will open the floor for questions. Thank you very much.