Jack Bendheim
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. You may proceed
So I think the answer to that is yes and yes. I think we’ve seen the marketplace – I mean at the end of the day, we are responding – our products respond to animal diseases, which is often caused by weather and different conditions. So we were on the wrong side of an early warming in the poultry sector. So it got some of our products that weren’t – used more predominantly in the winter times, in the colder climate. So that is sort of looking at history. Looking forward, I think while there are some articles and people are starting to focus on African Swine Fever, I think it is such a humongous change. I mean there is so much protein that is going to be missing from China as we go forward. And we haven’t seen it. We’ve seen the opposite as pigs started getting sick in China, the Chinese businesses started slaughtering more pigs and putting more pigs in the market. And that dropped the prices, and that affected everyone around the world. But I’m sort of a big follower of Christine McCracken from Rabobank. She’s been studying this thing very closely. And she sort of feels for the next couple of months, the freezers would be empty and also the cupboards will be empty. There are so many pigs missing in China that the demand, global demand for protein will go up. And it won’t be a quick shift from pigs to chicken, but it will – there will be a shift. But I think anybody who has the ability and the infrastructure to grow proteins, so whether it’s hogs or poultry, aqua, even cattle, and it might even shift to the dairy industry, we’ll see increased demand. And increased demand, as we all know, will put increased pressure to raise prices. So I think we’re about to see a different business climate than, I think, I’ve ever seen in my involvement in this industry, which goes back a long time. And I think we’re just beginning to see it. It’s going to happen quickly. It’s not that fast to respond. You can’t quickly add a lot more pigs. You can’t quickly add a lot more chickens. You’ve got to build the houses, you need approvals, et cetera, et cetera. But in the U.S., in Brazil, in Argentina, in Europe, we will see increased productions across the board in response to these higher prices.