Michael Steinmann
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Pan American delivered strong financial results in the quarter, generating $377 million in attributable free cash flow and returning $300 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our financial position is very strong with $1.9 billion in cash and equivalents, including cash at Juanicipio and $3.4 billion in total available liquidity. Our silver business continues to perform well. Silver segment all-in sustaining costs were $11.21 per ounce for the quarter, below our quarterly outlook range. Year-to-date, silver costs have been better than expected and production tracks on guidance. We have revised our outlook for gold segment operations based on results achieved to date and expectations for the remainder of the year. Net earnings were $357 million or $0.86 per share. The result includes a gain on the sale of the larger exploration property and the mark-to-market gain on our interest in New Pacific Metals. Adjusted earnings were $287 million or $0.69 per share. Cash flow from operations was $462 million, including our share of cash flow generated at Juanicipio. Over the first 9 months of 2026, we have generated $1.2 billion of attributable free cash flow and returned $701 million to shareholders. This included approximately 9.6 million shares repurchased and canceled and $228 million paid in dividends. The reduction in share count has resulted in a higher per share dividend as we execute on our enhanced shareholder return program. For the third quarter, the Board has declared a dividend of $0.185 per common share. Our capital returns are supported by a strong balance sheet and healthy cash flow generation and we are well positioned to invest in our operations, advance high-quality growth opportunities and maintain the enhanced shareholder return framework introduced for 2026. Turning to operations. Attributable silver production was 6.1 million ounces in the third quarter, below our quarterly outlook range. La Colorada, Huaron and San Vicente provided strong quarterly silver production while Juanicipio and Cerro Moro were responsible for the slide shortfall. At Juanicipio, higher-than-planned silver grades were realized in the first half of the year, resulting in production outperforming expectations and benefiting from the robust metal price environment over that period. The mine is now sequencing into lower silver grade ores for the second half of the year, but remains on track to achieve its annual production guidance. At Cerro Moro production reflected mine sequencing into lower silver grade and higher gold grades. Heavy-than-normal rainfall as a result of a strong El Nino affecting South America also affected ore transported from the Naty Condor pit processing plant and made the oversaturated or more difficult to process. Our full year silver production outlook remains at 25 million to 27 million ounces with production expected at the low end of the range. This is due to unplanned downtime at Huaron in Q4 to repair the primary grinding mill foundation, and a higher ratio of gold to silver production at Cerro Moro. The repairs on Huaron are expected to be completed in November. We expect full year silver segment all-in sustaining costs to come in towards the lower end of the 2026 guidance range of $15.75 to $18.25 per silver ounce. Attributable gold production was 168,000 ounces in the third quarter, with production at Timmins impacted by delay in accessing higher grade stopes and great underperformance, while Shahuindo recovered ounces have been delayed by increased leach pad inventories. Full year gold production is now expected to be between 660,000 to 680,000 ounces, reflecting lower production for the remainder of the year at Jacobina Shahuindo and Timmins. Gold segment all-in sustaining costs were $ 2,281 per ounce in Q3, above our quarterly outlook range. Guidance for full year gold segment all-in sustaining cost is now $2,000 to $2,150 per ounce, reflecting lower-than-expected production, increased development at Jacobina and El Penon, higher labor and consumable costs and weather-related impacts associated with El Nino. At Jacobina, we have reduced our full year production forecast to reflect measures being implemented during Q4 2026 to address the deficiencies noted during a technical inspection from the National Mining Agency, mainly related to primary ventilation redundancies and completion of secondary egress in certain areas of the mine. We have modified mine sequencing to allow the remediation work to occur, resulting in lower-than-planned production from affected areas, and substitution of lower grade material for the remainder of 2026. We are evaluating the potential impact on 2027 production. In addition, we continue to manage risk associated with seismicity as previously reported. These measures require increased pillar size, resulting in decreased mining rates in some higher-grade areas, partially offset by increased production from lower grade areas in the mine and increased development rates to open new mining zones. Meanwhile, we also continue to advance Jacobina's broader optimization plan. Two new carbon in pulp tanks were commissioned during the quarter and engineering and permitting work is progressing on paste backfill, tailings filtration and power supply upgrades. We're also evaluating options for a new processing facility to address the constraints of the existing plant. These initiatives are intended to improve operating efficiency, strengthen flexibility and support the asset's long-term potential. As previously reported, production at El Penon has been impacted by underperformance in certain high-grade stopes, resulting in lower gold grades. The company is advancing plans for additional infill drilling in areas scheduled for production in 2027, while continuing resource definition drilling and devaluation additional exploration targets with potential to define high-grade mineralization. At Shahuindo, some production is being deferred due to an accumulation in leach pad inventory. Our outlook also incorporates the potential impact on Shahuindo's operation in the fourth quarter from a heavier than normal rainfall related to very strong El Nino weather systems, which has impacted many of our operations over the past month. Turning to growth initiatives. We continue to advance the expansion of our La Colorada mine in Mexico, a significant opportunity for material long-term growth in silver production at Pan American. Work on the 12.4 kilometer, 588 decline began in mid-August, following mobilization of the contractor and equipment to site. The 588 decline is making good progress and has completed 168 meters of advance on the ramp and 56 meters of secondary development to the end of October 2026. During the third quarter, we also advanced engineering work and contractor selection for the hoisting and ventilation shafts. We plan to submit this component of the project for Board approval very early in 2027. At Timmins, we completed the exploration drift to the Samsung deposit from the active Tenants fast working during the quarter, enabling further underground exploration drilling. The exploration drift to the Vogel deposit from the active Bell Creek working is progressing and surface drilling has started at Gold River. We plan to complete the preliminary economic assessment for the Timmins camp project in the first half of 2027. The study will help define the potential phased approach to developing adjacent mineral resources extending mine life and potentially growing production by leveraging access plant capacity. We have revised our estimate for project capital to $195 million to $210 million for 2026, down from the previous guidance range of $240 million to $255 million due to timing of spending. In the third quarter, we also completed the sale of our larger exploration property in Ontario, resulting in Pan American taking approximately 6% ownership stake in Cadillac Mines Corporation. This provides continued exposure to the prospective Florida Lake Cadillac break to our equity interest. At Juanicipio, the transfer conveyor project was completed during the third quarter, with commissioning expected to be completed by year-end. The project will improve efficiencies and reduce the cost of haulage to surface. Regarding Escobal in Guatemala, the government has provided an update on progress achieved during 2026 in the ILO 169 consultation process with the Xinka representatives. The process continues but there is currently no time line for the conclusion and no date for restart of the operation. To conclude, we are on track to achieve our silver segment outlook for 2026 expect silver all-in sustaining cost to be at the lower end of our guidance range, and we adjusted our gold guidance and gold all-in sustaining costs. The underlying strength and quality of our portfolio continued to generate substantial free cash flow and create long-term value. We are advancing opportunities at La Colorada and Timmins, and pursuing initiatives to improve the performance and flexibility of our existing operations. With a strong financial position, a diversified operating portfolio and a disciplined approach to capital allocation, we believe Pan American is well positioned to invest for the future while continuing to return meaningful capital to shareholders. Before we move to the Q&A portion of this call, I would like to take a moment to congratulate the La Colorada exploration team for receiving the Thayer Lindsley Award from PDAC for the discovery of the Skarn deposit. The discovery of La Colorada Skarn is certainly deserving of that award given it has transformed the future of our La Colorada asset, and we are progressing with our plans to make it one of the world's largest silver and zinc mining operation. And with that, I'll turn it over for questions.