Earnings Labs

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 14, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I turn the call over, I need to advise that certain statements made during this call today may contain forward-looking information and actual results may differ from the conclusions or projections in that forward-looking information, which include, but are not limited to statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amount of estimated future production and cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices and the cost of timing and the development of new projects. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties and factors which may lead to actual financial results and performance being different from the estimates contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to Yamana’s press release issued yesterday announcing fourth quarter 2019 results, as well as the management’s discussion and analysis for the same period and other regulatory filings in Canada and the United States. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded, and will be available for replay today at 12 o’clock PM Eastern Time. Replay information and the presentation slides accompanying this conference call and webcast are available on Yamana’s website at yamana.com. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Daniel Racine, President and Chief Executive Officer.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, operator. Thank you all for joining us and welcome to our fourth quarter and year end conference call. With me on the call today is Jason LeBlanc, our CFO, other members of our great management team are also in the room and will be available for the Q&A portion of the call. 2019 was by any measure, a very strong year for Yamana. Production exceeded guidance, cash flow increased, debt declined, reserves grew, project advanced, and the Yamana was one of the top performing stock in its peer group. These are just some of the highlights of the year which I’ll cover in greater detail, but first look at our health and safety performance. Our total recordable injury frequency rate in 2019 fell to 0.57, a 5% decrease from 2018 and a 24% decrease over the past three years. El Penon I’m pleased to inform you, completed its second straight year without a lost time injury, marking 8.9 million work without a lost time incident. Yamana did not have any material, environmental or community incident for the fourth consecutive year. Turning to our production result, we exceeded 2019 guidance for both gold and silver, with silver significantly outperforming guidance. GEO production also exceeded guidance at 1.024 million versus 1.01 million. Cash costs of $667 per GEO and all-in sustaining costs of $978 were in line with guidance after the inclusion of adjustments noted during the year. Jason will discuss costs in greater detail during his remarks. Total debt decreased in 2019 by $711 million and we nearly halved our net debt to $889 million, significantly strengthening our balance sheet and financial flexibility, and with greater financial flexibility, good things happen. One of those things was the 25% increase to our annual dividend announced in Q4. We now have…

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Okay. Thank you, Daniel and good morning, everyone. I’ll start off with a quick recap of some of the financial highlights of the year. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $383.8 million, compared with $483.4 million in the same period of 2018. The decrease reflecting that the company’s current portfolio comprises five mines, compared with seven last year. Despite the lower volumes though, gross margin was flat as metal prices were up significantly year-over-year. Net earnings attributable to Yamana equity holders in the fourth quarter were $14.6 million or $0.02 per share, compared with a loss of $61.4 million or $0.06 per share last year. The current quarter includes certain items that may not be reflective of current and ongoing operations totaling $12.1 million. On an adjusted basis, then earnings were $26.7 million or $0.03 per share or flat with last year. During the quarter, we also had our lowest cash cost performance of the year at $656 per GEO, even compared with earlier in the year when we owned Chapada. Jacobina and El Penon in particular had a great Q4. Our Q4 results were best characterized by the strong cash flow and free cash flow performances that we had been expecting to end the year. Cash flows from operating activities increased 75% in the latest quarter to $201.7 million from $114.8 million a year ago, while cash flows before net change in capital were $176.6 million, compared to $115.8 million. Free cash flow before dividends and debt repayments during the quarter increased to $73.4 million, up sharply from $9.5 million a year ago. This drove a commensurate reduction in our net debt of about $60 million during the quarter to $889 million, which is our lowest aggregate net debt level since all the way back in 2013. At the…

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, Jason. Last year, our slogan was the beginning of what’s next. Given our progress, it makes sense to revise that to the beginning of what’s now. And what’s happening now is that our free cash flow has grown to a point where we are able to reduce that significantly using cash from Treasury, while supporting higher dividend and continuing to grow the business. We are confident that this is sustainable as our free cash flow profile continues to improve, we will be in an even better position to advance our growth project and exploration program, while further reducing debt and increasing shareholder returns. And with that, I’ll be happy to answer your questions. Operator?

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Racine. We’ll now take questions from the telephone lines. [Operator Instructions] Thank you for your patience. And the first question is from the Fahad Tariq from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Fahad Tariq

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. At Jacobina, can you maybe walk through the reason for including the lower supplemental ore in the reserves? And was this the only kind of reason for the reserves increasing 19% year-over-year?

Daniel Racine

Management

Well, Luke Buchanan, our Vice President of Technical Services will answer the question, Fahad.

Luke Buchanan

Analyst

Yeah. Hi there. First of all, we did increase the highest grade reserves as well, as you saw in the middle of the year. And then we replaced depletion again by the end of the year. In terms of the lower grade, we previously took a conservative approach to downgrade those reserves to measured and indicated resources, but by demonstrating over the past several quarters, that we can sustain the low operating cost, we’re confident that we can include these in reserves in the later part of the mine life. One of the key improvements was the internalization of development over the past year, which has resulted in improved productivity and lower cost. So we just think now is a good time to add those lower grade reserves back into reserves and include it in the mine plan.

Fahad Tariq

Analyst

Thanks, and just as a follow up, can you remind me what the CapEx would be for the Phase 2 expansion in 2021 and 2022?

Daniel Racine

Management

Well in 2021 and 2022, if we go ahead right now, we have said many times, as these going to be below $50 million. So will complete the study this quarter, we’re going to come at in April with the exact numbers, but for now it’s going to be below $50 million and then you can assume a split, so $25 million in ‘21 and in ‘22.

Fahad Tariq

Analyst

Right, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ralph Profiti from Eight Capital. Please go ahead.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, Daniel when we talk about primary development versus secondary development at Jacobina, can use help us with how far ahead you are on development and maybe put that in context by comparing to say where you were, say a year ago? And also like to get a sense of, you know, how many zones you have opened now and how many are going to be required if you hit the upper end of that expansion phase let’s say, 8,500 tonnes a day?

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, Ralph. I’ll let Yohann answer these questions.

Yohann Bouchard

Analyst

Good morning, Ralph. Just to answer your question here. I mean last year we were doing about 1,500 meters to 1,800 meters of development per month. This year, we see a development in a range of 1,200 meters to 1,300 meters. So we’re already decreased. And I would say, expansionary CapEx of next year, we indeed put some more development, because we believe that the Phase 1 expansion may yield a bit more throughput that has been previously thought. So I mean to make sure that we’re going to be able to support the Phase 1 expansion in case that – I would say, in case that we’re being a little bit more higher than the 6,500 tonnes per day targeted. We decided to put some more CapEx in our budget this year in that aspect.

Daniel Racine

Management

Maybe to answer your first part, Ralph, five, six years ago, we were just in time in development. We are now about 18 months ahead in the development and that the production of the next six to nine months is already all developed and ready to be mined. So that’s adding a lot of flexibility to the Jacobina mine and like Yohann just mentioned, I think when we have completed our 6,500 tonnes per day, the mine already think that with the new equipment, we will install, we might be able to process more tonne, more than 6,500 tonnes per day.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Okay, got it. Thank you. The second question is on Argentine export tax. Jason, can you help me maybe reconcile this new regime that talks about sort of, you know, fixed percentages as opposed to the 4:1 ratio, and you know, going forward until this expires, is that going to have kind of around the same impact sort of, you know, $60, $70 maybe up to $80 an ounce impact?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yeah. Hey, Ralph. Yeah, so we mentioned the 12% tax which has been announced, it’s not approved and finalized yet, but we’ve assumed that 12% tax prospectively in our planning for the next years, and really it’s, you know, the easiest way to do it on a per ounce basis, 12% times the gold price, and that will give you the per unit impact at Cerro Moro or take that number and divide through by our, you know, 990,000 ounces guided to get the consol impact.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Right. And have you had, you know, discussions with the government sort of face time with them to discuss sort of the impact and how they’re thinking about it?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes, Ralph. We did that discussion with the government, Peter, our Executive Chairman was there two weeks ago – three weeks ago to discuss directly with the President of the country and they understand that we just built Cerro Moro, we spent $330 million to build it, and then we got it with these taxes. I think there’s – they understand, they’re listening. And then there’s going to be follow-up on this regarding what should be the right level of tax, you know, as we have stability agreement tax of 5% at Cerro Moro. So we’re still contesting each time we pay the tax. But we’re contesting this taxing which should be a maximum of 5%. So we’re going to see what will happen in the future. But right now, we say we should pay a maximum of 5%.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Understood. Okay, so encouraging. Thank you.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, Ralph.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Mike Jalonen from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Mike Jalonen

Analyst

Hi, Dan and Jason. Just had a question on East Gouldie that’s an impressive start there with the resource. I guess 2.8 million ounces of gold with your partner’s share. I guess Dan, just on the mineability would you access? It looks pretty deep. Would that be accessed by a decline line from the Canadian Malartic pit or a new shaft and looks pretty good fitness as would it be mined like Goldex for economies of scale? And that could be my first question. I have a second one on East Gouldie.

Daniel Racine

Management

Okay, good morning, Mike. Yeah, it’s quite impressive to have already resources of 2.8 million ounces on 100% that’s there only one year of exploration. You’re right it’s quite deep right now between 800 meters to 1.5 kilometers, 1.6 kilometers below the surface. But it’s an open going to our surface, going east, west and deep, but I think this is our main goal this year is to find how close the surface is going and then east and west and deep. Also it’s quite interesting what you saw as resources, we think it’s going to be a lot higher than that in the future. But we have just to continue to drill that, it’s is going to be a similar type of mining then Goldex now with [indiscernible] sitting in the stope they’re quite wide stope and big. We’re studying right now to know as you know to start around, we were studying to start around to go to East Malartic and Odyssey right now East Gouldie is a bit too deep to be accessed by a ramp but again if we find that the zone comes closer to surface, then we might access it by the ramp. This is why we have also delayed the ramp last year and that was clear two time this morning that we have no intention to start the ramp this year. As we want to understand better where the East Gouldie zone go up to surface. But also, we have some issues paying high royalty for underground mines.

Mike Jalonen

Analyst

Okay, I guess that’s my second question says here at page 23, Agnico release just include discussions with the royalty holders. Has the discussion started yet?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes, they have started. They have started before Christmas, they’re still ongoing with the main royalty holder, and then it’s progressing. So we’re going to see what will happen in the next weeks and months. But for now, for us, nothing has really changed. We’re going to continue to drill. We have quite a big exploration program, it’s about $20 million or $10 million or half of it for East Gouldie this year. So we believe in the potential, but as you know, and it’s clear in our press release, we use $1,200 per ounce gold when we do our study in our resources and reserves at Malartic. And that using that number the economic is not really good, all the cash flow is going back to the royalty holders.

Mike Jalonen

Analyst

Yeah, I guess well, obviously I guess well Cisco has their 5% NSR. Does Abitibi have a 5% NPI? Is that correct?

Daniel Racine

Management

No.

Mike Jalonen

Analyst

Okay –

Daniel Racine

Management

Abitibi as a lot smaller percentage.

Mike Jalonen

Analyst

All right. So the main ones just were gold royalties and their 5% NSR?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yeah.

Mike Jalonen

Analyst

All right. Okay. Well, thank you. Good luck.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Carey MacRury from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, guys. Maybe just another question on Malartic. Now that you’ve got East Malartic, Odyssey, East Gouldie just wondering what sort of development options you’re thinking about in terms of, you know, tonnes per day or size?

Daniel Racine

Management

Good morning, Carey. Right now, there’s no, we’re doing a study as we mentioned last year, so 2018 we started a study on East Malartic and Odyssey alone, the discovery and in – with the discovery of East Gouldie at the end of 2018 it completely changed our plan to look at the underground project. So we have restarted, we’re just restarting this study right now to – with the 2.8 million ounces we just announced in resources. We can start to look at a PA study, internal PA study to see how we can integrate the three zones into mining, but we’re just starting. So at this time, we don’t have any indication on tonnage and stuff like that. We’ll come later this year. I think both partners we agree that we would come later this year and then show our plan for Malartic what we think it would be, but it’s too early to say now.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

Okay, great. And then maybe on Cerro Moro. I know you guys had a, you know, a target of 1 million ounces of gold equivalent in over some time period and reserves came down this year. I'm just wondering how you’re, you know, what’s the outlook now in exploration and are you still comfortable you can get there or has your view changed there?

Daniel Racine

Management

Henry will answer this one.

Henry Marsden

Analyst

Yeah. Good morning, Carey. You know, we talked last year really about increasing our sort of inventory of targets some at Cerro Moro. We haven’t done that over the year, we’ve had a very strong and aggressive exploration program. We’ve seen some new discoveries and we’re starting to see small, but significant contributions to the inferred resource at Cerro Moro. So like you know, by the end of 2020, we should start to see some of those converting into measured and indicated, and we’ll see just gradual growth much like we do at El Penon at the Cerro Moro site.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Tanya Jakusconek from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yes. Good morning, everybody. I have just a couple of questions. One technical and then just one for you, Jason on the capital side. Maybe just Daniel starting on the technical side, just looking out for your three-year guidance when you provided the 885,000 ounces in 2022. What have you assumed in that guidance for Minera Florida and Jacobina?

Daniel Racine

Management

Well, we don’t – as you know, good morning, Tanya as you know, we don’t provide mine guidance after this year, but assume that Jacobina, we have already said what will be the production with the increased throughput. Florida will be – we have always said it’s going to be stable for the next three years. So you know, the 80,000 ounces to 90,000 ounces.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And then when you say Jacobina with the increased throughput, are you implying the 6,500 tonnes per day?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yeah –

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Or –

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes –

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, so you’re not –

Daniel Racine

Management

No –

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yeah –

Daniel Racine

Management

No, there’s no – in our capital that Jason discussed earlier, there’s zero money for an expansion that at Jacobina. Like we said before, we want to wait to see the study coming this quarter. And then we’re going to decide if we go ahead, we’re going to tell the capital needed to do it. But so far, the three years as assuming 6,500 tonnes per day.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

In the production profile and in the capital.

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And – okay. So, but that’s good. Thank you on that front. And then maybe just on the capital front and maybe this moves over to Jason. I think Daniel mentioned under $50 million, if we were to go to the, you know, the 7,500 tonnes a day at Jacobina. When you look out the next few years, is that really the only to 2022? Is that really the only development capital does you see in your portfolio right now?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yeah, I know Tanya. We’d referenced back to you know, we call it that, you know, bucket of $50 million to $75 million, which we’d say a steady state. So we’re a little above that this year, you know, the primary difference is spending on Agua Rico with feasibility and some of the stuff. But really, to your point after we get out pass this year that, that capital drops off pretty significantly, there’s no, there’s a margin size across the portfolio, but it’s a fraction of what we’re going to spend this year in 2021 and ’22 at least what we see on paper right now. So when we do come to that decision on Jacobina story, you know, assuming that will be spent over multiple years, you know, we’d be well within that $50 million to $75 million bucket.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And then the sustaining sort of in that $165 million range?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yeah, that’s a pretty good number.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And then maybe just on the – you mentioned that this year’s capital expenditures don’t include the development of the exploration ramp at Odyssey and East Malartic. Is that because you’re not going ahead with it or is that just another number that, sorry, what is that capital number maybe and where is it being allocated?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

There’s no capital allocated, Tanya. And that’s I think what Daniel had mentioned is, you know, we’re still wrapping our arms around the project to find out the best sequencing of everything. So we’re not at the point of approving and developing that underground ramp yet.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, so just the $10 million on exploration was the only expenditure that you’re going to have in there and that’s going to be coming through the exploration budget?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

That's right. Yeah.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. Okay. No, that was my questions. Thank you.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Anita Soni from CIBC. Please go ahead.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, guys. I just want to ask a question on El Penon. I think you touched upon most of it, but just can you delineate where – we noticed you had some good exploration success there. And could you just tell me what the go forward plan with El Penon is?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yeah good morning, Anita and we will answer the question on exploration. But you know, El Penon and you saw last year was an amazing year, the last three years there was an increase in gold production and then they maintained silver production. I think what we saw last year, it’s a good number of what we guide for this year. It’s a good number for the coming years for El Penon but as we drill and discover more gold and more silver ounces, you know, El Penon has the potential to grow production in the coming years. As you all know, we have a 4,000 tonne per day mill at El Penon, we’re processing around 2,800 tonnes per day so we have extra mill capacity at El Penon. Once in a while now we’re processing some of the stockpiles that incremental ore is bringing ounces to the mill and at cheap cost. So there’s huge potential at El Penon, but I let Henry answer the question on the potential on the exploration.

Henry Marsden

Analyst

Sure. Thanks, Daniel. Yeah, Anita we had a very strong year last year. And I think as we mentioned, we combined some sort of new techniques, including the machine learning at El Penon that developed some strong targets and we were able to chase some of the principal veins like Orito at depth, and that we’ll be continuing to do that in 2020, combined with looking at some of the secondary veins that have been very productive for us in the past. And we’ve also stepped out of the core mine and we’re going to put a significant budget this year into some follow-up drilling on targets looking for new veins that could extend the mine life beyond what we’re seeing currently. So we’re really on a very similar program. We just plan to keep on showing a growth in resources there and to continue replacing depletion on an annual basis ongoing.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Okay. And then maybe could talk a little bit about the generative program that you have going forward. So you said, $14 million budgeted for this year and then going forward, you guys are planning to fund that plan. Is that in a similar level that you said you’re going to fund it based on asset sales I guess, non-core assets the things that are more tied up in the balance sheet not generating cash flow? Like could you talk about that plan and how you see that going forward?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yeah, Anita. The total is around $63 million for the next three years, so $14 million this year as you can see it will increase in 2021 and 2022. And we will give the detail out of it and then you’re absolutely right. All the funding for this will come from the non-producing assets or either the royalty portfolio, some selling of the gold shares or money coming from Agua Rica, we don’t intend to use cash flow from operation to provide that exploration that already a generative program in the past few years. So, for this year was easy, the $14 million was already and mostly in the budget. We had already, it’s just we moved the money that was going somewhere else to generative exploration program in Canada and Brazil. But Henry can give more detail.

Henry Marsden

Analyst

Yeah, certainly you know what – we built a very strong portfolio of properties, particularly in Brazil. And we have been slowly moving those ahead and what we’d like to see with the use of the monetization funds is a very stable exploration program is independent of gold price, independent of some of the cash flow restraints we’ve seen in the past. So we’ll be basically moving ahead our internal projects aggressively this year and then with increasing budgets over the next two years with – as Daniel mentioned about $53 million total budget over three years.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I’d like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Racine.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, operator. Thank you everyone for joining our call. And stay tuned for our Q1 release in April and our continued, you know, free cash flow generation in the coming month and quarter. Thank you and have a wonderful Valentine’s Day. Bye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. And thank you for your participation.