Earnings Labs

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q1 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, May 2, 2019

$52.22

-5.45%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+1.18%

1 Week

-0.25%

1 Month

-3.29%

vs S&P

+0.36%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I turn the call over, I need to advise that certain statements made during this call today may contain forward-looking information, and actual results could differ from the conclusions or projection in that forward-looking information which include but are not limited to statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and the amount of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices, and the cost and timing of the development of new projects. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties, and factors which may lead to actual financial results and performance being different from the estimates contained in the forward-looking statements, please refer to Yamana's press release issued yesterday, announcing first quarter 2019 results as well as the management's discussion and analysis for the same period and other regulatory filings in Canada and the United States. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay today at noon PM Eastern Time. Replay information and the presentation slides accompanying this conference call and webcast are available on Yamana's Web site at yamana.com. I will now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Daniel Racine, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you all for tuning in and welcome to our first quarter conference call. With me on the call today is Jason LeBlanc, our CFO. All members of our management are with us in the room and will be available for the Q&A portion of the call. We had a strong first quarter both operationally and from a sustainability standpoint. Our total recordable injury frequency rate declined to 0.6 during the quarter from 0.72 in the first quarter of 2018. We did not have any lost time injury at any of our operation in the latest quarter. While we are pleased with executing on our One Team, One Goal: Zero vision, we also recognize the importance of being prepared. To that end, we had an emergency response exercise at Jacobina during the quarter to test the preparedness of the mine, the community, and supporting authorities for serious incident. The exercise went well, and while we hope we never have to implement our emergency protocols, we will continue to hold such exercise to ensure we are ready for any scenarios. Our first quarter production of 272,000 GEO ounces exceeded expectation, while all-in sustaining cost of $930 per gold equivalent ounces were in line with expectation. Year-on-year production rose 29%, led by record production at Jacobina, and a 6% increase at Minera, Florida. We had also benefited from new contribution from Cerro Moro. Our 2019 mine-by-mine outlook for production and cost is unchanged. During the quarter, we announced the integration agreement for Agua Rica, which represents a significant step towards the optimization of this compelling project. We took another important step when we announced the sale of Chapada to Lundin Mining for more than $1 billion. The agreement includes $800 million of upfront cash consideration plus up to $125 million based on…

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Thank you, Daniel, and good morning everyone. We delivered $407 million in revenue in the first quarter compared to $455 million in the same quarter last year. Revenue was impacted by lower gold and copper prices partly offset by higher year-on-year silver sales. Despite the decline in revenue gross margin increased by $10 million dollars over the last year underpinned by operational results and cost improvements. Net earnings attributable to Yamana equity holders was $0.00 per share. This includes certain non-cash and other items that may not be reflective of current and ongoing operations. Notable among these items was a $20.2 million non-cash tax on unrealized foreign exchange related to the making of our operating currencies versus the U.S. dollar. Excluding these items among others, adjusted earnings in the quarter would have been $0.02 per share. Cash flow before net change in working capital was $103.2 million during Q1. As Daniel mentioned though, this excludes deferred revenue from our copper advanced sales program. When adjusted for the program, cash flows from operating activities before net change in working capital would've been $128.3 million up from $84.1 million for the prior-year quarter. As a reminder, we will have our last delivery under the copper advanced sales program in Q2, which is about $25 million. As anticipated, Q1 had a large working capital outflow, with the seasonal nature of our operations and accrual cycle. But in Q1, we also had the impact of further precipitate inventory buildup and non-reversal from Cerro Moro. Furthermore, with weaker local currencies we had a non-cash impact from FX of about $10 million that went through working capital in the quarter. I'll speak to it shortly, but we'll see a big reversal of the precipitate inventory in Q2. These items also impacted our net debt and net…

Daniel Racine

Management

. : Finally, I would like to remind everyone that we have our AGM this morning at 11:00, and with that we'll be happy to take your questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We have a question from Ralph Profiti from Eight Capital. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Thanks, Operator. Good morning. I'd like to ask two questions. Firstly, Daniel, on the expansion of Jacobina, because you've talked about high reserve grades, and higher mining grades coming, should we be thinking about phase one, though, as more of improvements around things like dilution around the pillars, mining methods? I'm just trying to get a sense of splitting the two phases of what actually is going on, particularly in phase one to get us those extra ounces?

Daniel Racine

Management

. : % :

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Okay, yes. Thanks for that. Jason, around the precipitate sales, have you locked in those prices already? Does it happen through derivative contracts, how does the pricing mechanism for receiving those revenues work?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

No, there's no lock-in of the prices, so we mentioned in May there, so we will be exposed to gold prices like our normal course sales would be -- it's very similar to what we would do on our concentrates, on the actual sale where we would lock in the prices at the point-of-sale. So I would expect those to be a couple of weeks out.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Yes. Okay, got it. Thanks, guys, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question is from Tanya Jakusconek from Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Great, good morning everybody. Maybe the first one for Jason, can you just talk to us about what the net contribution to revenue would be from the precipitate, because there is other factors in there, and I think there's tax implication, and royalties or -- and then obviously cost for treating the precipitate.

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Sure. Yes. No, Tanya, I would assume it's very similar to what we would do with our gold [ph] rate sales. So that would be in the range of probably a little under 2% of gross proceeds would be a reasonable cost to apply for payable metals, treatment refining charges, logistics, et cetera. So, really, from our perspective, no different than a [indiscernible] sale, a little bit more intensive to manage, but from a cost perspective, it's very efficient.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

All right. So if we take that assuming 98% is coming to you that would be in that ballpark?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

That's good, yes.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then when do you expect that working capital to change or to obviously get those monies back through the year, when are you expecting that reversal?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

It would be pretty evenly balanced throughout the year, Tanya, not to be too precise about it. Obviously, Q2, we're going to have a big windfall from that precipitate that I mentioned, and we would expect normal course on that. Beyond that it would be the normal kind of sequence on the other working capital type items.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. So if we were to take the precipitates out of the Q2 and then evenly distribute whatever is remaining for Q3, Q4, that would be a good enough assumption?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes, that would be fair.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay.

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Tanya, the other thing that I've got to highlight now is just while we're on the point of working capital, is on the Chapada sale is you know, is part of these -- an asset sale like that we will have a working capital transfer, I guess, with that sale to the purchase and sale agreement provides for a commitment to move -- there's $33 million of working capital basis that purchased sale agreement to Chapada. So that would be part of a working capital movement outside of what I just mentioned for the year.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And that would be in Q3?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

That would be Q3, yes.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. Perfect, and then maybe one for Daniel. Just on the Jacobina, again, and it's do with phase two, I'm just wondering -- I know that you've mentioned that you're committed to 7,500 tons a day. And you said, of the $100 million capital, I think 25% would be in the mill tweaking and the rest would be in the underground. What has to be done on the tailing side?

Daniel Racine

Management

On the tailing side, we are okay for now. We have to think about the future. And the part of the study is to look at either dry stack tailing or placed fill. As you know, we are mining in Jacobina for now for many years. There is many open stop there. And then it will make sense to probably switch to place fill. But we are -- the guys are studying right now. We have to do some tests on the material we have from the tailing to see what's the best option. But eventually we will switch to a very different type of tailing that we have right now.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

And then if you were to go to that 75 or 85, I mean what tailings capacity do we have right now?

Daniel Racine

Management

We have to check that, Tanya. I don't by heart. But, it's quite long. I think it's right now if we would continue at the actual rate, we have over 10 years.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

At your current rate?

Daniel Racine

Management

At the current rate, so that 6500 tons per day, let's say we are okay for 10 years.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay so I can do the math there. Okay, thank you so much.

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes. So, may be around eight years with increased capacity.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay.

Daniel Racine

Management

But that's also saying that we continue the same type of tailing. And then we won't. If we go dry stack, it takes a lot of -- a lot less place. And if we put -- if we go with placed, then we put about 40% to 50% back on the ground.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. Okay, sounds good. Thank you.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Josh Wolfson from Desjardins Securities. Please ago ahead. Your line is now open.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Thank you. Looking at the 2021 guidance and adjusting out Chapada, looks like there's about 75000 gold equivalent ounces that would represent an increase from 2019 numbers. I think the company has already provided details for half of that representing upside from Malartic and Jacobina. Otherwise, I would have expected maybe net declines from El Peñón and Cerro Moro. So, is it safe to assume the other half 35,000 - 40,000 ounces of growth is really strictly driven by Minera Florida at this point?

Daniel Racine

Management

No, no. The 150 is right now around -- is 75,000 from Jacobina. And the other 75,000 ounces is a combination of Canadian Malartic and Florida. So, there is no decrease at Cerro Moro. There will be a slight increase at Florida. And then when we go ahead with the Odyssey and East Malartic -- at Malartic, it's 75,000 ounces Yamana only. It's on a 50% basis. That explains the 150. So, the 150 is a combination of 75 at Jacobina plus Canadian Malartic and Florida for the other 75,000 ounces.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay. Specifically for 2021 now where I guess Malartic guidance has already been issued for 350,000 ounces, so plus 20 over 2019. And then Jacobina I guess the company has already provided indications of upside of 15. Specifically for 2021, it's like there is still growth from Minera Florida, El Peñón, and Cerro Moro implied about 35,000 to 40,000 ounces which looks like it could only be driven from Minera Florida. Is that reasonable?

Daniel Racine

Management

No. It's a mix on all our operations, Josh. It's not only Florida. Florida is part of it. But, we see growth at other operation too. Jacobina, we are conservative in our numbers. So, we see more coming from Jacobina that's what we are seeing. And at Jacobina, we are assuming the actual grade. But, as we mention many time in the last quarter and this quarter again, the grade we are drilling is above 3 gm. And then we see our resources and reserve going up again this year. So, if we would assume the actual grade we see right now at the mill and in the future, that explain the difference just by itself. And then maybe to be clear on Jacobina, we don't have to go to 8500 tons per day. If we assume that the grade we are hitting right now, that's what we are going to have in the future, at 7500 tons per day we are already achieving that 225,000 ounces per day without increasing our permit and anything. So, there's many option at Jacobina by either grade or throughput.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay. And for the capital spending for Jacobina for the second phase, that $100 million, when would the timing of that spending occur and I guess when would the company make the decision to start that spending program?

Daniel Racine

Management

The spending will happen before 2021 and 2022 and it will probably be in two phases. The first one will be to bring from 6,500 to 7,500 tons per day and then in 2022 to take the 7,500 to 8,500.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay.

Daniel Racine

Management

And most of the capital will be in the second part of the answer so, in 2022.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. If there could be additional disclosure for the 2021 corporate production guidance that would be helpful, I guess there's a lot of changes at Jacobina year-by-year.

Daniel Racine

Management

Yeah.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Mark Llanes from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Mark Llanes

Analyst

Hi. Most of my questions have already been asked, but just to recall the debt maturity schedule I believe, it was 2022, '23, '24 and '27, are there any discussions at the moment to be able to retire those earlier?

Daniel Racine

Management

Mark, what we've said is obviously, first priority is revolver and then, beyond that we'll look at, preference will go to the near-term maturities, but that's a plan that's being developed and will be executed upon concurrent with the closing of Chapada.

Mark Llanes

Analyst

Okay. And then just a second question on Cerro Moro, on the silver grade, I know that you are mining above -- I mean processing above plan on the silver grade. Can you give me additional color on the silver grade profile for the rest of the year?

Daniel Racine

Management

Well, you are right, so far since we started to mine at Cerro Moro, we have better grade than expected, but for the rest of the year it should go to typical reserve grade, so, around 650 grams per ton.

Mark Llanes

Analyst

All right, thank you very much.

Daniel Racine

Management

And we were more in the 800 to 900 since the beginning of the production.

Mark Llanes

Analyst

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Mike Parkin from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Thanks for taking my questions guys. I've got most of the details I'm looking for, I am just wondering with the Jacobina expansions, should we look for any unit cost improvements on a per tonnage basis with phase one or would it really be potentially more of a phase 2 change on those metrics?

Daniel Racine

Management

A small impact on phase 1, Mike, mostly on phase 2 there will be a huge impact. The impact on phase 1 will more on the cost per ounces and the cost per ton, because with almost same tonnage, will produce more ounces. The biggest impact will come from phase 2.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Okay, any kind of in terms of magnitude?

Daniel Racine

Management

That's difficult right now to say, we're still doing the study, but we'll come back later this year to show the numbers.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Okay. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Don MacLean from Paradigm Capital. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

DonMacLean

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Good morning, Daniel. It's been a while since we've chatted. Some of us are just coming back to look at the name in more detail again, which is helpful, reduction in the debt coming ahead. It would be very helpful to get a list of the organic growth projects that you were referring to but in a priority sequence. And I don't know whether you can enlighten us a bit more on what the capital and the contribution would be, but just maybe prioritize them at the very least for us.

Daniel Racine

Management

That's pretty clear for us Don. Number one is Jacobina by far because it's giving us the best return on all our projects. Then sure, Canadian Malartic is a good project too, probably second. Then we have some improvement at the Florida and other mines we have too. Agua Rica is very important for the company because of the financial aspect of it. So, that's basically that is but number one is for sure Jacobina and number two Malartic.

DonMacLean

Analyst

And the Jacobina would include both phases?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yeah.

DonMacLean

Analyst

You were referring to the phase 1 is kind of a no --

Daniel Racine

Management

The phase 1 is very simple and then basically almost no capital. So, it's an easy one to decide.

Don MacLean

Analyst

And would phase 2 sort of stack up again at the top of the priority list?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes.

Don MacLean

Analyst

Okay, great. Okay, that's helpful, thank you.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Anita Soni from CIBC. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Anita Soni

Analyst

The open pit at Cerro Moro, are you fully underground, right now?

Daniel Racine

Management

We didn't hear you, Anita.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Sorry. At Cerro Moro, in terms of the underground proportion of the ore feed, how much is that now?

Yohann Bouchard

Analyst

Yohann here speaking. We still have two years [of out of] mining with the open pit at Cerro Moro, so we, at this moment, about 25% is coming from underground and remaining from open pit. And we're planning to start the new mining zone -- underground mining zone, in May.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Sorry, in May, okay. And then secondly, on Canadian Malartic, what do you think is the timeline for Odyssey and East Malartic to start up? And secondly, the resource base that you have in Inferred category is that embedded in the Canadian Malartic inferred resources that you have in your reserve resource statement?

Daniel Racine

Management

For the first part of your question, like we mentioned a few time, we're doing the study right now that should be completed by late this year, early next year, then will come with our partner and announce exactly what we're planning to do. Development of it, if we see -- we gave a goal, we will start next year. And it should be completed by end of 2021 to have the first ore coming to the mill.

Anita Soni

Analyst

All right. And then secondly, the depreciation rates at Cerro Moro, was that booked on a production basis or is that booked on a sales basis, so given that you sold less than you produced, would we expect that to go higher next year -- I'm sorry next quarter when -- yeah.

Daniel Racine

Management

Sales basis, but it shouldn't change that much on a per-ounce basis, Anita. It's about $500.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Sorry, $500 per ounce or $500 differential, okay.

Daniel Racine

Management

$500 per ounce.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Okay. All right, thank you very much. Those were my questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I would like to turn back the meeting over to Mr. Racine.

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes, thanks everyone to joining our call. I have no further comments. Thank you, and have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.