Earnings Labs

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 16, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

All participants please standby, your conference is ready to begin. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I turn the call over I need to advise that certain statements made during this call today may contain forward-looking information, and actual results could differ from the conclusions or projections in that forward-looking information, which include, but are not limited to statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amount of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices, and the cost and timing of the development of new projects. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties, and factors which may lead to actual financial results and performance being different from the estimates contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to Yamana's press release issued yesterday announcing Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2017 Results, as well as the Management's Discussion and Analysis for the same period and other regulatory filings in Canada and the United States. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay today at 12 O'clock PM Eastern Time. Replay information and the presentation slides accompanying this conference call and webcast are available on Yamana's website at yamana.com. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Peter Marrone, Chairman and CEO.

Peter Marrone

Management

Thank you very much, ladies and gentleman, good morning. I would like to mention that with me here today is Daniel Racine, our Chief Operations Officer; we have also Jason LeBlanc, Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer; William Wulftange is here along with Henry Marsden. Henry is a successor to Butch, who is retiring from the company Henry has been with the company for now more than a year. And it was part of an orderly succession, we thank Butch for his service at the company and we thank Henry for having stepped into the large shoes that need to be filled with Butch. We hope this is perceived as an orderly transition and when it comes time to discuss our reserves and resources and exploration opportunities and there are several of those we will bifurcate the discussion between Butch on what has happen today and what Henry plans to do going forward. We also have our operational management here, Yohann Bouchard and Gerardo Fernandez who report to Daniel, so that to the extent that are any questions or comments they can help you with any answers to those questions. We've already reported on this, but let me highlight, that our gold, silver and copper production met or exceeded our expectations. We increased our gold guidance, a couple of tones last year, silver guidance once copper as well. We exceeded not only our guidance, several tones for gold and for silver and copper, but we also exceeded our budget expectations. We've said before in prior calls that we risk adjust our budget to determine what we think is a reasonable estimate of production for guidance and I'm very happy to report that last year we produced level of metals that was not only in excess of our…

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, Peter. Good morning everyone. We continue the trend of strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2017. We produced 259,000 ounces of gold, 1.2 million ounces of silver and 34.7 million pounds of copper. We were able to deliver fourth quarter production at the byproduct all-in sustaining cost of $829 per ounces of gold and $800 per ounces of silver. As Peter mentioned, our full year co-product cash costs and co-product all-in cash sustaining cost were in line with expectation for all metals. On the byproduct basis, full year gold production was delivered a cash cost of an all and sustaining costs per ounces at $561 and $820 respectively. Looking forward, we see increasing gold and silver production in 2018 as Cerro Moro comes into production. We expect to produce 900,000 ounces of gold, 8.15 million ounces of silver and 120 million pounds of copper. Overall, the approach and parameter used for budgeting are consistent with those used in 2017. As Peter highlight we also provide geo guidance to help give us a better senses of the size of production platform. If we look on the gold equivalent basis, we are guiding approximately 1 million ounces for 2018. Total gold production is 10,000 ounces above the sum of the mine-by-mine expectation. As we have not allocated these ounces to specific mine at this time. For our existing mine, we expect to continue the established trends of delivering stronger production in the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year. Going back to 2010, we had seen a first half to second half split of 46% to 54%. In 2018 we expect approximately 47% of the gold production and 46% of the total copper production to be delivered in the first half. For Cerro…

William Wulftange

Management

Thank you, Daniel and good morning, everyone. This first slide, the pics of mineral reserves and mineral resources as a comparison of 2017 numbers to 2016 gold category totaled in bar graph format with copper and silver totals listed below. In the 2017 bar graphic you can see the movement of inferred mineral resources into the measured and indicated resources in preparation for reserve placement into reserve categories. It is important to note that economic mining criteria, such as top cups and minimum risks have the rigorously applied to all of the resources at all the mines and all the mines are using a mine stope optimizer program for the reserves. Also not all the 2017 exploration successes are reflected in these totals. Yamana is evaluating results from Suruca Southwest at Chapada for categorization into mineral resources and mineral reserves and the drilling results at the Veronica vein in Cerro Moro continued into December - continue to be received into December. So the results there were received too late to be included in the reserve and resource tables. Next slide please. So what did we accomplish in 2017, Chapada we saw reserve growth with significant additions to resources at Suruca Southwest and expect to have more there. Canadian Malartic we added 1.2 million ounces growth and inferred mineral resources at East Malartic with additions to inferred mineral resources at Odyssey as well. At El Peñón we place production - we replace production and applied the mine stope optimizer to all structures to come up with the new mineral reserve numbers. At Cerro Moro we discovered the 1.5 km Veronica structure adjacent to existing infrastructure, so this should most likely be placed into reserves in the coming year. At Jacobina we replace production and saw a strong increase in mineral measured and indicated mineral resources. At Minera Florida we replace production and grew reserves with a very strong growth and measured indicated mineral resources. So in all 2017 was a very strong year for Yamana exploration and the results will provide a good foundation for work in 2018. I will now turn to presentation over to the new SVP of Exploration Henry Marsden.

Henry Marsden

Management

Thank you, Butch. 2018 exploration program is fairly straight forward, we will continue to build on the successes of 2017. All of the programs at the mine sites are design to meet our life of mine plan, so will be designed to replace production replace reserves. And also to replace depletion and conversation in our resource category. The only variance really from that program this year we have two projects Chapada and Jacobina in which we have very long-term reserves. And the focus in 2018 will not be on replacing those reserves as much as increasing grade and the quality of the overall mineral resources. We also have a large discretionary budget available to us in 2018 this will give us great flexibility to follow-up and improve on programs and hopefully further increase resources in projects like Cerro Moro.

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Thank you, Henry. Turning now to our financial performance, we delivered $1.8 billion of revenue in 2017, this is up slightly over last year on higher copper sales quantities and higher metal prices. Net loss attributable to Yamana shareholders for the year was $194 million or $0.21 per share, the loss was impacted by a non-cash impairment of Gualcamayo and related Argentinean exploration assets. This was partially offset by an income tax recovery related to a tax rate change in Argentina. These items are included among other adjusting items totaling $0.28 per share to attributable earnings during 2017. Cash flow before taxes and working capital changes was $594 million for the year. Looking close to our cash flows we saw the generation of free cash flow increase over the course of the year in line with the seasonality of our gold and copper production. We generated approximately $107 million of free cash during Q4 and $252 million over the year. With the completion of construction instead of our Cerro Moro this year we expect our overall net free cash flow to increase given the step change contribution from our newest operation. In anticipation of the construction wrap up at Cerro Moro, we had put in place commodity price protection for both copper and gold to ensure we will generate steady cash flows during this important time when we are investing more highly in our growth. Combined with the steady performance of our operations during 2017 you can see that this consistency of our traditional H1, H2 annual slips in cash flow generation held up during the year. We have as previously mentioned price protection in place through the startup of Cerro Moro. With the step change in cash flow generation from Cerro Moro we transition from an investment cycle to…

Peter Marrone

Management

Jason, thank you very much. So ladies and gentlemen, that's our formal presentation, and if we can open the call up to questions.

Operator

Operator

Certainly, thank you. We will now take questions from the telephone lines. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Dan Rollins with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Yes, thanks very much. Peter and team I have just a few questions here and maybe just to start off on Cerro Moro, just looking for a little bit more color on how the mine sequencing has changed, looks like the gold equivalent production for 2018 is down by about 5,000 ounces, but seems to be a bit heavier drop in 2019 with only 6 million ounces of silver versus I think 9.9 million you are looking for last year. What's changed with the mine frequency and how should we envision this sort of steady state throughput what is the top out versus prior expectations goes? The 2019 level seems to be a significant haircut relative to previous estimates?

Gerardo Fernandez

Analyst

Good morning, Dan. This is Gerardo Fernandez. Well the sequence changing in the priority for cash flow and the previous plan did maximize silver and brought in two mines that were rich in silver early on in the development of the project. After review of the plans and after drilling we concluded an order [ph] deal with the execution of the project and also to maximize the cash flow generation in the first three years. And also by seeing their resource and exploration it was worthwhile to delay those two mines, wait for the result of exploration, for instance they only gather [indiscernible] gold high grade that doesn't require the development with two more ramps and it can be quicker and I would say less capital intensive in the next two years proposition for the life of mine. It's not included in the plan yet because we just discovered it. We're drilling it and we need to develop and most likely will be an open pit high grade mine that will replace in the position the two silver rich mines that were in the plan. So always strategic objective for Cerro Moro is to get a stable platform and cause cash flow and production. Gold, we are trying to keep as fixed at 130,000 ounces per year and silver will float a little bit. That float it will be between 6 million and 8.5 million to 9 million ounces depending on the grade and the contribution of the mill.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay. So, take it basically what you are doing is you are going to right size this project to start off with instead of looking to right size it down the road given the best things you have alluded opening on some of the other assets. So it's really more of the stable asset going forward, which allows you more time for exploration success. Is that how we should read into it?

Gerardo Fernandez

Analyst

Yes, and also we're taking a look at what we can do in terms of optimizing the cash flow generation first year. I think you guys are aware that Cerro Moro is an open pit and an underground mine open pit is something unique or mining metal very well known in that area in Argentina, Santa Cruz successful mines are in the area with a lot of knowledge underground requires more training ramp up. So we are establishing a strategy, we rely more on open pit in the first couple of years. So with the risk to execution of the project we build our strength for underground development of mining based on our experience in Gualcamayo and Peñón, but with a lower risk profile. So we don't have to rely on high graded slopes with a rich field there at the beginning. We build that capability we're not betting on having contractor for underground we develop our own gold coast we're doing that, we started doing that two years ago. And that we think is the best proposition in terms of cash flow generation for the near and long-term.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then Peter maybe you can touch based on Gualcamayo now it's an asset held for sale won't be in the guidance, but what is the current sales process look like, how far are we down the road when do you expect to have an announcement on the divestment of that asset?

Peter Marrone

Management

Well under accountancy principles and Jason can speak to this better than I can, but under accountancy principles an asset is held for sale for a year. We believe that within that period of time we will execute on a transaction relating to the sale of Gualcamayo. The best I can say at this point Dan is that you should anticipate that over the course of this year that's where we will be.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay, very good. And then maybe Butch you can just comment I noticed that the gold price assumptions used in reserves were up a little bit at some of the mines, just provide a little bit of clarity on what the rationale behind that was?

William Wulftange

Management

It's just to help better identify and confine the mineral resources that we have at the mines.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay, perfect. Thanks very much.

Peter Marrone

Management

Dan the line went funny a little bit. So I hope that we heard the question correctly, but if you're referring to our resources and reserves estimations we're applying more stringent criteria minimum widths on reserve estimation even in our inferred resources for example at Jacobina we're now applying economic parameters. So I think this is an important point that isn't to say that the resources aren't there. We're just saying we're reclassifying them at least for now so that we can do more drilling, better assess the economic criteria as we're mining it, for example, Canavieiras South and Canavieiras central. We will have a better sense of what to expect and that will give us a better impression of what should be classified as resources inferred to start and then coming into proving a probable reserves. Those more stringent criteria have been applied across all of our operations, so in some respects if I then take it to El Peñón it is a bit comparison of apple to oranges to say what was our reserve estimates at the end of 2016 to the reserve estimate at the end of 2017 because we have applied these more stringent criteria. And we also have because of the width of the veins in applying those criteria we have reclassified some of the areas that were considered to be reserves to reflect what we can actually mine and that number has come down. So interestingly internally if we said for a moment this regard at the end of '16 and look at what we did in February of '17 with a new mine plan. Throughout the course of 2017 we actually saw an increase in reserves what we saw internally, what we saw at the end of the year. And so that's what I believe is giving Bouchard and Henry the confidence that approach will give us increasing numbers into 2018

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay. So this continue the moves from last year to sort of reset the bar and allow you to basically add more stability production going forward and convert resources into reserves with a lot more confidence.

Peter Marrone

Management

Correct. And again without mentioning this point I think it's an important point to address. By applying those more stringent criteria we also are in a better position to plan our production. And as you know it is a stated objective of this company it was through last year and through this year that we want to be mining our reserves. So that creates more certainty in terms of what to expect from our production platform on a year-to-year basis.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Great, thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The following question is from David Hudson of CIBC. Please go ahead.

David Hudson

Analyst

Yes, good morning, Peter and Team. Thank you very much for the update this morning. But just back to Gualcamayo, quite a reset of expectations 150,000 ounces last year, 110,000 ounces for this year. Can you just walk us through why that you've rationalized that production. Is that through lower mining rights or lower grade? And with the higher costs is that also reflect the fact that you got lower volume going through?

Gerardo Fernandez

Analyst

Good morning, David, this is Gerardo. This is volume adjusted, the throughput from the open pit is the one that if we do it we keep the underground mine at a 1.1 million tons and the throughput of ore going through the pressure is reduced. That allow us to reduce the savings and get a little bit more recovery in the process.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay. So if the underground is maintaining the 1.1 million tons per annum, would the material going from the open pit, would that be around the 3.5 million to 4 million tons per annum sort of thing?

Gerardo Fernandez

Analyst

Correct.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay. And with that, you just have an improvement in your recovery that's just a longer lead cycle that you're looking at there or how is that working?

Gerardo Fernandez

Analyst

Well there are two parts with the recovery. One is the crushing final will give us a couple of points in recovery. The other we are in the process of - it's not fully approved yet, but we are at the [indiscernible] remuneration, not going to support even final crushing and increase the recovery for those.

David Hudson

Analyst

Alright. And then with the reset of the Florida plan, we're on site mid last year saw that you have done some re-geek [ph] on the way that you're thinking about the future of that mine. It's also dependent upon the tunnel ultimately going into the main portion of the ore body. What's happening over the next couple of years, can you just describe what we're looking at?

Gerardo Fernandez

Analyst

Okay. It's probably linked to what we see in an exploration and we're having some surprises good surprises that has impacted or the future so how to execute the development. When you were at site we show you the Hornitos tunnel. And after that we continued drilling and we come up with an idea that could access the high grade core of that vein from the shifting infrastructure and start development early on and reaching the ore earlier like a year earlier than what we thought from Hornitos. So we gave priority to that development. It's within the mine, but very close to the exit, doesn't impact the core mine. But it's much shorter to get to the high grade revitalization. When that allow us to do exploration and that elevation as well. The other surprise we had is a PBS of favorable as south stope, which is in the same trend. But on other side of the creek if you probably remember those slides and I think it's in the presentation, those corridors go across the property. So exploration late last year also discover mineralization there. And PBS is in the resource now that older 9 to 10 veins we haven't included in the results we are not ready so we need drill them but they will discovered. So there - and that is in the other side of the mine we can connect the infrastructure to the existing infrastructure. So the plan the overall plan, long-term plan remains the same. We are developing the new zones as we are finding them, we'll need those will be developed, we don't have to develop it right now because we have these new zones they are closer to existing infrastructure. And we think we can bring them into production with high grade earlier. So our plan is to keep development, but I was developing PBS and resume the development of Hornitos in 2018.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay. And the development CapEx that you've got there this year, I'm guessing would be $10 million plus is that a reasonable ballpark.

Gerardo Fernandez

Analyst

Yes, in terms of $16 million more or less flat for the three years and we do have our investment on the plant as you know with the improvements we need to.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay. And one last question and I am taking up a bit of time here, you mentioned about the underground work is at Cerro Moro what sort of mixture we would be thinking about as far as tonnage from the open pit versus the underground for the first few years at Cerro Moro?

Gerardo Fernandez

Analyst

First year, this year is 70% open pit, next year it goes down to about 60% open pit and then we start going up in the underground to the opposite 70% underground 30% open pit that is in the current plan. As I mentioned in the first question, based on the results of exploration we may have - I think we will have higher proportion of open pit as the new veins are discovered n high-grade will be probably replacing some of the stopes underground and bring in ounces, cheaper ounces sooner.

David Hudson

Analyst

Alright, thank you very much for that.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The following question is from Steven Butler of JMP Securities. Please go ahead.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Jason could you tell us what your carrying value is on Gualcamayo at this point?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

It's the $150 million that we disclosed in our results, that includes working capital as well.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Sorry excludes?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Include working capital.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Includes, okay. That's fine. Butch on your Veronica vein or the Veronica vein at Cerro Moro, what is the approximate drill spacing that you have outlined this vein on? You talked about 1,500 meters of strike, I'd like to know maybe its average width and depth extent and what sort of grades are you realizing?

Henry Marsden

Management

I'll jump in and answer that. One we initially tested it at 240 meter centers, we are now down to 120 meter centers on the entire vein, we've only taken it down to about 120 meters depth at this point. And we have infield some of the higher grade zones to 60 meter centers at this point. We seem to see - we definitely see two high-grade shoots within the structure and possibly a third that we're still trying to outline.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay. And what's the approximate width of the vein?

Henry Marsden

Management

Average width is over 1.8 meters considerable variability we have some very wide sections that include the part that we're hoping to open pits and average grade at this point is about 7.7 GEO.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay, thanks very much. Daniel, do you have a sense of timing of various optimization studies that you're working on at Chapada in terms of telling the market a bit more.

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes, Steve I think we mentioned that we're going to come in Q2 with a plan for Chapada. So we are going to - in the Q2 report we're going to speak about our expansion plan at the main mill operations and what we're going to do with the Suruca complex the Baru and Sucupira pits.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay, thanks so much.

Daniel Racine

Management

So next quarter you'll have all these answers.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. The following question is from Anita Soni of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Hi, good morning guys. I just wanted to get a better understanding of what prompted your decision to put Gualcamayo for sale as another analyst had mentioned that it seems to produce rather well last year at 150,000 and this year at just 110,000.

Peter Marrone

Management

Yes, Anita part of it is philosophical, we're trying to maximize and focus on operations where we have more immediate prospect, larger potentially larger prospect. Gualcamayo has a number of years of mine life based on proven and probable reserves and an allocation of resources to reserves. It has a significant number of exploration targets for oxides that can extend that initial mine life it will require effort on exploration for those targets. And it also has deep carbonates, but deep carbonates we see as probably six years out, somewhere in the range of six years out. As we said in prior calls, deep carbonate is already more than 2 million ounces of resources and it's open in every direction so there's a high probability that it will increase in size and scale and it would require a significant capital to put that sulphide deposit into operations and with a new plant. So we are looking at Gualcamayo and saying well if we were to optimize - if we were to look at the portfolio of assets that we have and the quality of assets, which is generating better cash flows, better free cash flows, which has the prospect of generating those we are not looking at only from the point of view number of ounces, which of our assets requires more effort and in concentrating on assets that require more effort you may not be concentrating on assets that can deliver better returns and better results with less effort. The result of all of that is that we concluded that Gualcamayo was probably better suited for sale rather than a continuing development that isn't to say that we're not going to continue to mine it and mine it effectively, that isn't to say that we're not going to continue to optimize that 110,000 ounces in our guidance. Last year we guided 140,000 ounces and we produced 154,000. So we're going to continue with the efforts on production, we're going to continue with the exploration effort and clearly we're going to continue to evaluate the quality of deep carbonates that sulphide discovery. But at this juncture we have so many other opportunities in the company that deliver what we think is more immediate and better value that we should be deploying our time that Gualcamayo falls into a category of lesser priority for us than other assets. And it still has enough optionality that it makes it interesting for a potential sale.

Anita Soni

Analyst

So in terms of sale value I know some - is there any thought or idea to putting, I guess, an optimized plan together for the buyers. I know some of your competitors have done that when they've done asset sales and have gotten pretty good multiples.

Peter Marrone

Management

Yes, so we've taken that approach and so we've looked at what does it look like on a base case basis, what does it look like on an optimized basis and we're now engaged in a process of what is the optimal price that we can get for that asset. So you're quite correct that's the approach that we're taking. But we also recognized that how much one sells an asset for is, as much the function of what a buyer - who is the type of buyer, what tolerance they have for a particular jurisdiction. That often narrows the scope of the number of buyers that would be available and the type of buyers and that goes to the purchase price. But we're confident that we can deliver a transaction on Gualcamayo, but the equally important point is that doesn't mean that we're not going to continue to look at what are the opportunities in the meantime. There have been several examples as you're aware where a company considers that something should be sold and then you make that discovery. And with that discovery something changes in the parameters and the views. For now we're thinking that within this year and as I answered to Dan's question we're going to be selling Gualcamayo, but we'll continue to evaluate what are its opportunities in the meantime.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Alright. And then last question you didn't give any update, could you give anything on the legal Brio transaction at the stage?

Peter Marrone

Management

Well they announced this morning a consensual transaction.

Anita Soni

Analyst

I missed out.

Peter Marrone

Management

Yes, so we think that that's very encouraging and very positive. We provided our support to the original takeover bid concept that Lia [ph] had put forward. We're very pleased that the two boards have agreed to this consensual deal and we're very pleased with the consideration that is being offered. I have to say Anita that we're particularly pleased with a company that accretes. So the company that accretes has critical mass, size, scale, quality of assets what we think is excellent stewardship to the management of those assets. The result of all of which is that we think that our investment will be worth a heck of a lot more than it is today. And as you're also aware in 2016 when Brio was taken public we saw as an opportunity for business combinations to create critical mass particularly in that size of company. Now clearly one of our hopes was that Brio would be the consolidator the share price didn't perform according to our expectations through 2017, but the fact it is not a consolidator doesn't mean that it doesn't make sense to consolidate. And so we think this consolidation of the two companies is excellent and as a collateral benefit we also get to clean up our financial reporting, our operational reporting because we're no longer consolidating the operations in financial performance of Brio Gold.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The following question is from Josh Wolfson of Desjardins. Please go ahead.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Thank you. Two quick more financial oriented questions, first, in terms of capital spending guidance is the Chapada stockpile movement included within that figure or would that be in addition to it if there is any guidance for this year?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

No, it's not in the capital, Josh.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay. So, what should we be expecting this year for that?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Well, that'll be an inventory move, will go to our long-term inventories.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay. I think so last year we saw on the order for $20 million or is that something we should expect this year again?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes, that's about right.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay. And then for the Gualcamayo book value 150,000 and this like be too granular for the call, but is there any proportion of that or any inclusion of what the deep carbonates could be or is that based on the existing reserves?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

No, we can't any at that way.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

Okay, alright, thank you very much.

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions register at this time I would like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Marrone.

Peter Marrone

Management

So, let me conclude ladies and gentlemen with a couple of pickups on some of the questions that were asked. One of the first questions was about Cerro Moro, we should highlight that we are also in our current plan for production in 2019 and 2020. We are estimating that the amount of processing would be below the design of the plant. So we are roughly at 80%, 82% in 2019, and if we - or that's more to blend out through 2019, 2020, and to see to have a look see on what Veronica and other vein structures look like. If we were to go to full plant capacity than that silver productions would come up, the gold production would come up much more significantly. And we will more guidance on that throughout the course of the year and certainly when we have our mine tour, our first mine tour with investors in early March. The second is on Chapada, and on Chapada what we said the second quarter my hope remains that before our shareholders meeting, which is in early May we will be able to say here is the focus on Chapada, here is this big complex, we have Sucupira and Baru at the pit parameter, how do we do a push back of that pit that allows us to be able to capture some of those higher grades that we reported in our results into through our plant. The second is Suruca as a complex, the oxides we are continuing to advance that for heat bleaching, but the sulphide represented an excellent opportunity for significant production we are not talking about 40,000 to 50,000 ounces per year from the oxide it's a significantly largely number than that potentially a multiple of that. And we are also looking at the plant, we have discussed that we are creating the stockpiles so part of what we are looking at now is how do we increase the plant capacity that allows us to be able to capture some of that into production. Gold production would be expected to stay comparatively flat from the ore coming from the pits, but copper production would increase very significantly. So sometime in the second quarter our hope remains by the time of our shareholder meeting in early May we will able to say here is the focus of this big complex of opportunities and what we are going to be pursuing over the course of the next several years to maximize production for gold, production for copper, but also to significantly increase the cash flows generated from that very robust asset. Ladies and gentlemen with that thank you very much for participating in our call. And we'll look forward to the next call with you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your line to this time. We thank you for your participation.