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Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 29, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I turn the call over, I need to advise that certain statements made during this call today may contain forward-looking information, and actual results could differ from the conclusions or projections in the forward-looking information, which include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amount of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices, and the cost and timing of the development of new projects. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties and factors which may lead to actual financial results and performance being different from the estimates contained in the forward-looking statements, please refer to Yamana's press release issued yesterday announcing second quarter 2016 results, as well as the Management's Discussion and Analysis for the same period and other regulatory filings in Canada and the United States. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay today at 12:00 P.M. Eastern Time. Replay information and the presentation slides accompanying this conference call and webcast are available on Yamana's website at yamana.com. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Peter Marrone, Chairman and CEO.

Peter Marrone

Management

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us today. Speakers today include Daniel Racine, Gil Clausen, William Wulftange, Barry Murphy, and Jason LeBlanc. Also here with us are Yohann Bouchard, and Gerardo Fernandez, our two Senior Vice President for Operations. I would like to begin the call today by reviving some key themes that summarize our performance for the second quarter. To start, we remain on track to meet consolidated gold and silver production guidance. Second quarter operational performance was in line at all of our operations except Chapada. Overall however, second quarter production was in line with our expectations and tracking our yearly guidance. That anomalous performance at Chapada negatively impacted production and cost in the quarter. This is one of our cornerstone mines. And as such it has a significant impact on our consolidated performance. In the second quarter the impact was negative and of course it will improve over the course of Q3, Q4 and its long term prospects remain intact. A few observations. Second quarter operational performance was inline as I mentioned on all of our operations. At Chapada there were several factors that impacted production and that included where mechanical failure with our in-pit crusher. There were also weather related issues which made access to higher grade ore more difficult. The operations would have been able to compensate for the disabled in-pit crusher while it was under repair by mining higher grade softer ores. These softer ores could be processed directly at the plant and bypassing the in-pit crusher, the in-pit crusher creates more efficient management mostly for harder and lower grade ores. Those of you who are aware know that Chapada has three crushing units. So operationally the mine and the plant were fine. However, higher grade softer ores required…

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, Peter. Peter summarized very well the challenges we have faced at Chapada with the in-pit crusher and weather. Like mentioned we are now fully back into production and our Arsenal plant for Q3 and Q4 remain unchanged. We have updated our 2016 production for Chapada in light of the second quarter performance. We are now expecting full year production of 110 million pounds of copper and 160,000 ounces of gold. It is important to note the challenges in the quarter has not impacted our long-term outlook for this world-class asset and 2017 and 2018 guidance remain unchanged. In addition during the quarter, we completed changes to the flotation circuit during the second quarter which we expect to increase recoveries. Highlighting this improvement of the circuit we have seen copper and gold recoveries in the last week of July of 83% for gold -- copper and 56% for gold. Respectively up from 74% and 52% in the first half of this year. Further we continue to believe there is a significant optionality at Chapadaand one of these opportunities is Suruca. We are in the process of updating our study at Surucato current economic input and targeting a startup of production in the first quarter of 2019. Annual production for Suruca is expected to be in the range of 40,000 to 60,000 ounces per year. At El Peñón we continue to focus on improving operational efficiency and near mine exploration. Despite foregone condition at Orito and lower grade in narrow veins impacting production during the second quarter. In line with the mine plan, mine development increased significantly compared to the first quarter to support production from narrow vein areas with an over 13% increase compared to the base line at the beginning of 2016. Other improvements also continue to advance…

Gil Clausen

Management

Thanks, Daniel. We completed work on the final technical report on the re-commissioning of C1 Santa Luz. Now we are moving to the execution phase of the restart plan. Since last October we drilled about 16,400 meters in order to build a full geo-metallurgical model and to expand and convert the mineral resources the results of which were shown on this table. As Peter mentioned, the 21% increase in global resources and just over 1.2 million ounces improve and improbable. This larger resource allowed us to increase the planned capacity to about 2.7 million tons per year with the addition of vertimill mill in the grinding circuit. Now we have a 10 year mine life averaging 114,000 ounces per year over the first 7 years of production. On top of that, we have a large underground mineral resources of - on resource about 575,000 ounces that we planned to evaluate later this year. In doing our comprehensive metallurgical test work, we determined that about 60% of the gold at C1 is associated with sulfides and about 40% in silicates. So our decision to use a whole ore leach process was a good one. We can recover all the gold that are constituent within the lithology is that we have at C1.The reserves are roughly 50-50 clean dacite and carbonaceous ores and we can easily separate them in the mine plan. We have very large wide zones in fact we intend to run several weeks or months on one ore type before switching over to the other with actually only modest stockpiling in the plan. So it's a very efficient mine plan. The dacite ore will be processed conventionally grinding and then through to a CIL circuit when running the carbonaceous ores we will add kerosene in the grinding circuit in…

Barry Murphy

Management

Thanks very much, Gill and good morning everybody on the line. Cerro Moro continues to advance ahead of schedule in all three of the main areas of activity first, being the underground mining, the site construction works and the detailed engineering. Through the underground mining, we are getting a bit understanding of the actual rock conditions underground which would allow us to optimize the mine plan and ensure that we don't have any surprises when we move into commissioning in 2018.The project expenditures is tracking according to planned the $20 million spent to-date this year and $47 million in total on the project. Expected expenditure for this year is $53 million. The actual progress in the areas as Gill referred to earlier as shown on the next slide, with 325 meters of the 617 meters underground development complete year-to-date. The detailed engineering is sitting at 73% which is on target for us to achieve at least 85% complete by the end of this year. In terms of site activities the bulk earthworks for concentrated plant and the infrastructure was completed last month ahead of schedule. And the next major contractor which is the concrete has mobilized a site. Procurement is also advancing well with most of the key long lead items procured including the mold thickness and the refinery package. And finally on the exploration front, drilling continues as planned with approximately 10,000 meter full cost. Drilling plan for 2016 this drilling will allow us to improve by the categorization of the resources as well as allow us to show an increase in the total resource size. Thank you.

William Wulftange

Management

Thank you, Barry and good morning everyone on the call. I’d like to provide a brief update on our exploration efforts of Odyssey and elsewhere in the company. As you know the Odyssey deposit lies within the Canadian Malartic mine concession boundaries and it is important -- and important gold producing property jointly operated by Yamana and Agnico Eagle on a 50-50% basis. The mineralization was discovered in the number 12 porphyry in 2014 and follow-up drilling outlined the potential resource contained within two mineral horizons the North and South zones during the 2015 exploration program. The goal of the 2016 program was to complete a 100 by 100 meter spaced drill program to establish an inferred mineral resource. That initial program is complete and has successfully established the initial size, shape, grade and bulk tonnage deposit. Additional funding has been allocated just recently by the management committee to continue to drill the program – the drill program through the end of the 2016.The extra 5.5 million Canadian will allow the geologist to complete an additional 35,000 meter of infill drilling concentrated on at least two zones within the North mineral deposits. The initial infill program will -- also encountered three unexpected high-grade mineral intercepts the other peers strike north-south crosscutting the east-west trending main Odyssey deposit. These structures will also be further drilling to be completely understood. Companywide exploration programs, the exploration programs in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Canada had returned positive results during the second quarter and first half of 2016.Drilling of the Sucupira deposit at Chapada continues to define the high grade cigar-shaped copper gold mineral bodies probably with the well grade copper halo adjacent to the Chapada pit. Exploration drilling is in the early stages of defining a mineral body immediately beneath the Chapada pit as…

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Thanks Butch. In the second quarter we delivered a 3% increase in revenues driven in part by higher gold and silver prices in gold sales. This was offset by significantly lower copper prices and lower copper and silver sales. We expect same production growth in the second half of the year to contribute significantly to revenue in the third and fourth quarters. As you’ve seen costs were from Q1 of this year and I’d like to run through the main drivers, some of which were planned and others are compounded expected cost increases. Higher cash cost were impacted by a 12% increase in secondary development from quarter-to-quarter. This was in line with plans. However, local currencies in our three main jurisdictions continue to strengthen. The Brazilian real, Chilian peso and Canadian dollar were up 11%, 4% and 7% respectively compared to the first quarter. These increases were further influenced by the lower production at Chapada that we’ve already discussed. When we look at on sustaining cost we see a big impact due to the timing of planned capital spending which increased 55% compared to the first quarter again this was in line with budget but when we apply the foreign exchange rate differential seen in the quarter to capital spending we saw an amplification of their impact. Also in Q2 we had an anticipated increase in G&A compared to the first quarter which contributed to the higher all-in sustaining cost compared to Q1. I want to highlight that we’re on track for fully G&A guidance and that the Q2 spend was in line with plan. Lastly there was also a planned increase in expiration spending for the quarter. Despite these cost increases since Q1 2016 you can see that our average cost structure year-to-date through Q2 is comparable to that…

Peter Marrone

Management

So ladies and gentlemen those are the highlights for the quarter and perhaps if we can open up the call to questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Marrone. We will now take question from the telephone lines. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Botir Sharipov of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Botir Sharipov

Analyst

Hi, Peter and the team, a few questions from me if I may. What would you cost be in the second quarter both cash cost and all-in sustaining cost if you didn’t have a input cost ratio as Chapada? I don’t know if you guys calculated that.

Peter Marrone

Management

We have a rough estimate, we would have been closer to what forecast - Jason perhaps you have the number there.

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Sure, I think big picture number is, in terms of cash cost I think that in-pit crusher problem contributed to $25 per ounce and I think on an all-in probably another $10 or so that.

Botir Sharipov

Analyst

Okay, thank you. And what sort of I guess throughput do you have right now at Chapada in July?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

In August it will full production, July early the first week of July we were still doing the repairs but it started at the end and it’s going like planned. So the plan is to achieve the full throughput of 58,000 to 59,000 ton per day.

Botir Sharipov

Analyst

Okay, great. And then just moving on your FX assumption does – the new assumptions do they include your hedging impact or are they before the hedging?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Well there is the hedge assumption, but the cash cost that results from it do incorporate the benefit of those hedges yes.

Botir Sharipov

Analyst

Okay, great. And I guess the last question looks like you are more pointed speaking about Agua Rica now, can you possibly give us a maybe a timeline of a potential deal if any.

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Well it’s difficult Botir to refer to specifics on timelines or potential deals. What I can say is that we’ve now completed the review of this project to a feasibility level of understanding. Now to be fair, a lot of that hard work had been done by Xstrata when Xstrata had entered into that deal with us several years ago. We’ve picked up the ball from there and as you know Xstrata was purchased by Glencore who is now the operating partner of Alumbera and the discussion has been about the possible integration of El Gorica into Alumbera. So the studies on El Gorica as a standalone project and as an integrated project into Alumbera have reached a level of certainty that is very, very high. That has led us then to the following, discussions with several parties clearly one important one would be the partners and one partner in particular the operating partner at Alumbera. It is logic, it is compelling, Xstrata have compelling nature of a deal. They struck a deal with us to integrate one project into the other and so we have advanced significantly the technical reviews of that project. What do I think is the timeline. Given the size and scale of something of this size and given the improvements in Argentina significant improvements in Argentina politically, geopolitically, socioeconomically one very significant one Botir is the elimination within the first month maybe the first three weeks of the term of this new president eliminating the retention tax at 10% tax which added more than $300 million of value to El Gorica alone. So our view is that with those improvements it makes for a very viable project and a very viable integration event with Alumbera. So the discussion should continue from there. So with the…

Botir Sharipov

Analyst

Thank you, very helpful.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from David Haughton with CIBC. Please go ahead.

David Haughton

Analyst

Good morning Peter and team. Thank you very much for the update. Probably a question for Daniel if that’s okay Peter. Just looking at Suruca I see that you’ve moved up the potential staff to 2019, you’ve got a study coming out mid next year. Is this project approved or are you still pending the outcome of the study.

Daniel Racine

Management

It’s still waiting the outcome of the study but what we know right now it’s a positive study. So it should be approved. It’s a heap leach project it’s already easy to build so we don’t see any – and we don’t see why the project won’t be approved.

Peter Marrone

Management

And David may add to that. You might remember that Suruca had gone through a feasibility level study several years ago. As you are aware we’ve significantly I believe significantly improved the bench strength of this company on operations and also on our technology services and we have better protocols than we had before. The level of probability on the technical merits of a project and the peer review that we conduct internally and externally to make sure that a project works. So Suruca has gone through feasibility study. We actually started to spend money on the development of Suruca and then with the declining gold price we suspended that effort. So what were doing now is we’re saying brush up the work that had been done before and bring it to the new standard of Yamana and then move forward from there. So as Daniel said the study is positive. The likelihood is high but bear with us as we complete that checking of the boxes in these protocols that we’ve established over the last couple of years and when the project was approved or studies and the vast part of the equipment is already on site so.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. The last time we saw some numbers we were thinking about $40 million to get it up and running. I know that you’ve got a study that will probably fine tune that but is that a reasonable sort of starting point?

Barry Murphy

Management

Yes I will say Barry Murphy here, that’s correct. The slight inflation since those numbers were initially payable but that’s the ballpark we’re talking at the moment.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. And since I’ve got you Barry, at here is at Yamana you’ve got your start up CapEx. Can you just remind us what your life of mine sustaining capital CapEx is including mine development to keep ahead of the mill feed?

Barry Murphy

Management

I don’t have the number in front of me. If you give me a second I’ll forward that David. You are looking for the life of mine sustaining capital?

David Haughton

Analyst

If you wouldn’t mind Barry please.

Barry Murphy

Management

Sure, okay give me a moment and I’ll get it to you in a second.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. Another development question if that’s okay Peter. Maybe over to Gil. C1 one coming up and getting the go ahead. Just wondering about its spend profile, $84 million would the bulk of that be spent in 2017 and then dribbling into 2018 or what kind of thought have you got there.

Peter Marrone

Management

Yes, really for the balance of this year David we’re really looking at soft cost as move the very details execution of say design engineering and the project execution plans and protocols so yes, the capital spend a bulk of it will be next year.

David Haughton

Analyst

All right and I’ve seen that you have underground there, quite a lot of ounces potentially but is 2.3 grams viable for this kind of ore body?

Peter Marrone

Management

Well if you look at the deposit that’s the M&A resource at a cut off of about 1.5 grams. When you start comparing that to our other operations notably Fazenda Brasileiro we would be very happy to have those grades at Fazenda Brasileiro as well. So that’s generally in the range of what we’re producing very profitably at. The zones are wide. It looks to me just on a first blush that we might be able to even do some transverse stilting and bulk tonnage mining underground but of course we have the technical work to do there, but I think it looks very promising.

David Haughton

Analyst

All right. And with the kerosene treatment, can you point to any other mines where you have seen this operating?

Peter Marrone

Management

There are a number of operations that are using kerosene blanking and carbon ores, there is a whole long list of them I’d be happy to share that with you.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay, yes, if you could drop an email that would be fine. And then last one, maybe over to Jason, just looking at the balance sheet I know that you have got total data of about 1.76 bill but you are only showing long term debt of 1.6, I’m wondering why the current portion of that debt is not showing up on the current liabilities?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes, the gross is about 1.7, David.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. And the current portion of that 95, I just don’t see it on the balance sheet, wondering what happened?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes the primary portion of that would be the 73 odd million dollars that comes due in December of this year

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay.

Barry Murphy

Management

David, it’s Barry here again, the number you have got in terms of total sustaining capital for the life of mine is in the region of $240 million which includes all the mine development CapEx through the life of mine as well as the mine closure costs at the end of life of mine.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. And do you have a ballpark number for that closure, Barry? A – Barry Murphy: The closure we are looking at about $30 million, - it’s in that number.

David Haughton

Analyst

Thank you. And look forward to an email Gil, thank you very much for answering all these questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Anita Soni with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Hi, guys, just a very quick question. The cost revision that you had on the co-product cost, I don’t see anything for byproduct cost, well did it have a similar impact?

Peter Marrone

Management

Yes, indeed we focused in on the co-product to revise the guidance. As you know we have had to changes to the copper over the balance of year and I think wanted to focus on the pure, pure gold. There could be an ancillary knock on effect from how we can perform on the copper for the balance of the year. So you know, reserve that right to do a little bit better hopefully.

Barry Murphy

Management

Anita, the byproduct is not expected for the entirety of the year because of Q2 and because of the production profile for Q2 of copper and where copper price is standing today the byproduct is not expected to be very meaningful. And so part of what we are trying to highlight is that the co-product is changed because of the impact that we described. Byproduct won’t be very meaningful based on what the assumptions are today. However as Jason is touching on, we are assuming 110 million pounds of copper coming from Chapada. This is a big size and scale operation and given its size and scale one can conceive that with a very modest uptake in throughput, modest uptake in grade and some of the less conservative assumptions that have been made we can have a far more meaningful increase in copper, not gold but copper. And that would imply then that the overall cost would come down for copper, the production would go up, the margin would increase and it would represent a significant improvement to the byproduct credit. So what Jason is touching on is there is an element of uncertainty in terms of where that would be because there is certainly the scale of operation implies that it should be able to do better than 110 million pounds, perhaps significantly better than 110 million pounds but we are not at that point. So you should assume that the byproduct credit would be zero.

Anita Soni

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Please go ahead.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Guys, good morning. In terms of couple of the assets, obviously the grade was affected at Chapada given the crusher issues and therefore you had to supplement the stock power. We understand that for sure, Peter. Jacobina and El Penon, questions on those two assets were, maybe just great sequencing perhaps but I was liking the trend at Jacobina for the last couple of quarters on getting meaningfully above the two gram level but you slipped back to 2.09, is it simply sequencing or anything else in Jacobina to explain it? The last couple of quarters 2.59, 2.36, 2.27, down to 2.09. So a question there, and El Penon is ready believes that the grade will increase a bit in the second half?

Gerardo Fernandez

Analyst

Good morning, Steve, this is Gerardo Fernandez. For Jacobina, the operation is managing the blending but you know we have a very high grade show in Canavieras South and we are advancing developing there. Some of the areas are more composite structurally but very high grade, so we need to do the delineation really in some of these areas with high grade above 5 grams per ton. We continue to develop further so that lowest to have a better future expectations from that area but in the short term we used other areas available to produce. So sequencing, nothing has changed in terms of the grade itself where mine is managing the resource and the reserve to preserve the high grade and mining with quality and controlling dilution in the future. Butch mentioned some of the resource we need to drilling, delineation, drilling those are very positive and we are seeing the same in the drifting we are just taking it slow and using the flexibility.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Are you going to expect any grade increase at Jacobina in the second half?

Gerardo Fernandez

Analyst

Yes, we expect the grade to go up. For El Penon sequence, Q2 we are planning to do significantly more secondary development in both Quebrada Orito mine and also in the Narobin area so in the East or North mine and so as part of that sequence the grade came down compared to last quarter but is expected to go up by the end of the year.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time, I would like to turn the meeting back over to you Mr. Marrone.

Peter Marrone

Management

Thank you very much. There were several questions asked, we appreciate the questions. Let me round out some of the answers to the questions. Butch here you asked about the cash costs if Chapada had performed according to our expectations in Q2. So perhaps if I can round the square to what Jason had said, the impact then to cost would have been entirely the FX and so we would have anticipated cost, it would have been meaningfully below where we deliver cost for the quarter and they would be closer to perhaps slightly below what we are currently guiding for the entirety of the year. On David's question on Curuca, we should have picked up on a point. Now Barry made the reference to $40 million this is the original estimate. We’re updating that so I think it’s reasonable to say that there should be some range of estimates so we think that that numbers between $40 and $60 million. However, that represents 40,000 to 50,000 ounces the actual number is 48,000 ounces in the original study of production per year for at least five years. And as Butch can better explain we’re also seeing some significant opportunity in another deposit called Hermathermolito which is an oxide deposit some of which is copper and gold and some of which is gold. And so we think that we should be able to extend the production expectation coming from Curuca alone. On the question that was asked by Anita on C1 Santa Luz in the spend, I believe it was Anita and MNI for the underground I want to make sure that this is clear. The economics that you saw in this presentation and when we publish the report that we’ll put on our website so that everyone can see with…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Marrone. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.