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Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 5, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Yamana Gold's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties concerning the business, operations and financial performance and condition of Yamana Gold. Forward-looking statements include but are not limited to, statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amount of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices, and the cost and timing of the development of new deposits. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties and factors, which may lead to our actual financial results and performance being different from the estimates contained in our forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release of yesterday announcing our third quarter results and our management's discussion and analysis for the same period. As well as other regulatory filings in Canada and the United States. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded, and will be available for replay today at 2.45 PM Eastern Time. The replay number is 416-849-0833, or toll free 1-800-642-1687 both with the passcode 14351681. As well the presentation slides accompanying the conference call are available on Yamana's website www.yamana.com. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Peter Marrone, Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Good morning. Thank you, Beth, for the introduction and thank you to everyone for your attendance. We will begin with the brief overview and I will then pass the conference over to our President and Chief Operations Officer, Ludovico Costa who will discuss our operations. Chuck Main, our CFO, is here also and he will discuss our third quarter financial results. I will then provide an update on our development stage projects. Although, we do have Evandro Cintra, our Senior Vice President of Technical Services and Darcy Marud, our Senior Vice President of Exploration in attendance on this call to answer any questions you may have. Darcy is remote although on our conference line, so there may be a modest delay in his ability to answer any questions. Also with us, is Lisa Doddridge, whom we welcome as our new Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications. Just before I elaborate on our record third quarter results. I would like to reiterate some of the key objectives of this company. We have four core themes of growth in other words what growth means to us, which is growth in cash flow, growth in production, in resources and ultimately growth in net asset value. The starting point is our steady focus on operations, development stage projects and on our exploration program. We are well on tack to achieve these four objectives and indeed we just achieved a record cash flow in the quarter, which represents an increase of 24% over the same period last year and 42% higher for the comparable nine month period. Our cash balances are increasing and all of this is in advance of significant resource growth this year and production growth to follow, which will further contribute to our cash flow and increases in cash position. Our…

Ludovico Costa

Management

Thank you, Peter. Production increased this quarter by 5.6% versus the previous quarter of 2010. Continuing to build on the production increases we have seen sequentially throughout the year, with Q3 exceeding Q1 production by 11.5%. We continue to expect production to increase quarter-over-quarter again in Q4, as we have demonstrated during this first nine months of 2010. We are on track to produce between $1.03 million to $1.1 million gold equivalent ounces as previously guided. Chapada had a stand-out quarter achieving record concentrate in copper production. At Chapada, we completed the expansion to 20 million tons per year last year, and the optimizations to increase throughput to approximately 22 million tons per year are currently underway. We also transitioned to larger trucks this year. As a result of these initiatives, gold and copper production increased in the third quarter by 33% and 16% respectively over Q2, as grade and recover increase in Q3 as planned. We have achieved the expectations and operational improvements quarter-over-quarter at Chapada and expect to achieve annual guidance. Production in the fourth quarter is expected to be higher still, similar trends in 2009. Cash costs at Chapada declined by 14% versus the second quarter this year, despite the strength in reais currency mostly due to increased production levels. El Penon production was around 105,212 gold equivalent ounces for the quarter, a 4.7% increase compared to the previous quarter. Cash costs were $461 per gold equivalent ounces higher than Q2, mainly due to the depreciation of the Chilean peso. As we continue to develop El Penon as a result of the transition to owner mine, we have turned our focus towards cost improvements, such as maintenance schedules, and reducing the costs for consumables. We expect costs to improve going forward, and we continue this quarter to…

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Thank you for that, Ludovico and now if we can turn it to Chuck to go into further detail on the financial side of those results.

Charles Main

Management

The third quarter was an exceptional quarter. Revenue hit a record this quarter with total revenue of $454 million, which was 36% higher than the same quarter a year ago, and 29% higher than the previous quarter, as a result of higher metal prices and increased production. Our year-to-date revenue was $1.2 billion. Average realized gold price for the quarter was $1,235 per ounce, an increase of 28% versus a year ago in the same quarter. Silver realized price was 1,973 per ounce, and copper was $3.27 per pound. Mine operating earnings were $201 million, that was an increase of 48% versus a year ago, and reflects strong metal prices and Yamana's sequential quarter-on-quarter production growth. Gross margin per GEO sold was $1,077 in the quarter, an increase of $153 per GEO, and a 17% increase versus Q2, and it was $955 for the first nine months of 2010. Net earnings were $121 million, which increased 98% versus a year ago, and 33% versus the last quarter. Adjusted earnings were almost $119 million, or $0.16 per share, which demonstrated in the consecutive quarterly earnings growth Yamana has achieved this year, going from $0.10 in the first quarter to $0.12 in the second quarter, and 16 in Q3. Operating cash flow before changes in non-cash working capital was $209 million, and represented an increase of 24% from last year's same quarter, and an increase of 55% versus the previous quarter. Operating cash flow for the first nine months of this year is 42% higher than the first nine months of 2009. Byproduct cash cost guidance has been lowered to less than $175 per GEO, from our previous guidance of less than $200 per GEO. I would like to pick up another point that Peter has made, that we are expecting significant…

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Chuck, thank you very much. I would now like to provide a brief update on the development stage projects that will increase our production to 1.5 million ounces in 2012, and then the additional projects that will take us to 1.7 million ounces as we exit 2013, which includes Pilar, which will begin operations in 2013, and the expansion at Gualcamayo to take into account QDD Lower West. Any new project or expansions, including the gold area at Chapada Suruca will add to this level. At Mercedes, permits required for construction have been received and construction began in May. Production will begin in mid 2012 at an annual rate of 120,000 ounces per year. Further drilling this year indicates a high likelihood of increases in resources and reserves, and these increases will allow us to evaluate how we can increase the currently planned production level after startup of operations. In the case of C1 Santa Luz, engineering work is on schedule, and construction and environmental licenses are expected to be obtained in late 2010. Production is expected to start in 2012 at the rate of 130,000 ounces. C1 Santa Luz and Fazenda Brasileiro are within very close proximity to each other and we are looking at treating these under common administration and management. This cluster of mines between Brasileiro and C1 Santa Luz will produce 200,000 ounces of gold per year. At Ernesto Pau-a-pique, or EPAP, construction and environmental licenses are expected in late 2010, with production startup targeted for 2012 at the annual rate of 120,000 ounces of gold. Pilar, we made a construction decision this quarter, and we expect to be in production in 2013. Potential for increased reserves and resources both at Pilar and the adjacent Caiamar area continued. We will evaluate how we can increase the…

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Dan Rollins. Your line is now open.

Dan Rollins - UBS

Analyst

A couple of quick questions. At Gualcamayo, you mentioned that you are looking at a long run steady state production of around 160,000 ounces. I was wondering if you could confirm if this includes QDD Lower West?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

It does not. Very good question. QDD Lower West was always planned, we described that as the expansion at Gualcamayo. It was always planned to supplement that level of production that takes that mine to a sustainable production level over a longer term of an average of 190,000 ounces per year. As you may recollect when we delivered the feasibility study for QDD Lower West, in the first few years, the production level well exceeds 200,000 ounces.

Dan Rollins - UBS

Analyst

Moving on to Suruca, in the MD&A you mentioned that you are looking at trucking this directly to the main processing plant. Is this material likely to sort of replace some of the copper/gold ore in the current system?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Dan, we are looking at various options and tradeoffs for the processing of that gold ore body. One option is to build a parallel plant to what we have at Chapada, so that we continue with the processing of Chapada ore and Suruca ore. There is a capital cost to that, but that delivers more gold and does not impact the copper and gold production coming from the Chapada ore body. The other alternative available to us is to create some form of a blend. The third alternative that is available to us is to look at it from the point of view of, can we capture some of those ounces during the mine life of the Chapada open pit, the main Chapada open pit, and supplementing the gold production with further gold production to come on the back end of the Chapada mine life. We are looking at all of those options as to what delivers the best value. The one thing that is a certainty here, is that we will be recovering more gold coming from Chapada. It will be sustainably at a higher level than we see now, and will see into years to follow. What we are doing now is we are evaluating the various tradeoffs that deliver the best value.

Dan Rollins - UBS

Analyst

Just on Chapada the current recoveries, they are around 63, and over the last couple of quarters you mentioned that they should be going higher. What is your target rates on the gold and copper recoveries at Chapada going forward?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Let me turn that to Ludovico.

Ludovico Costa

Management

We expect the Chapada recoveries on copper to be in the range of 87% to 89%, and for gold to recover from 63% to 67%. That, of course, will depend somehow on the grade, but that is the range that we are looking for.

Dan Rollins - UBS

Analyst

Great, thank you. One last question, Peter. It is great that you reaffirmed production guidance. It is good to see your byproduct cash cost guidance has fallen. At the beginning of the year you highlighted co-product cash cost guidance of 360 to 400. Year-to-date excluding Alumbrera you are running at 440. What is your new guidance on a co-product basis?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

It is a very good question, Dan. As you know, at beginning of the year when we provide guidance on cash costs we always look at it from the point of view of what are the inputs, and we also give sensitivities on the inputs, and currently one of the more important inputs is local currencies. I am sure that everyone on this call is aware that local currencies including the Chilean peso have appreciated significantly to the U.S. dollar. The Chilean peso has appreciated approximately 10% to the U.S. dollar. That will have an impact be on our cost structure. So I hope that I can start answering your question by saying that when we guide up to $400 per ounce that is always premised on the assumptions that we make on the inputs, some of which are out of our control, and the one that is very much out of any company's control is what happens to local currencies. If we look at it from the point of view of where those currencies are trending, and what they have been for the first nine months of this year, we should anticipate a cost structure that is in the low 400s up to the level we have seen at the end of Q3. Q4, we anticipate lower costs, in part as a result of higher grade at Penon, and part of it is a result of Jacobina's continuing performance, and then part as a result of Chapada's higher grade, better recovery, and continuing improvement in performance. We do anticipate Q4 cash costs to be lower. Why I continue to emphasize the importance of looking at byproduct cash costs, though, is because the difficulty with cash costs is always those inputs, and what is unique about Yamana is that with roughly 35% to 40% of our production coming from Chile and the Chilean peso's appreciation, a direct correlation that that appreciation is copper price. What you have heard me say before is that we have this inherent natural hedge in this company with copper, as the Chilean peso appreciates which erodes our cost structure with the operations in Chile, we should expect that there will be more copper revenue. The result is a direct trade-off, and that is we look at that byproduct cash cost. On a co-product basis, we will expect cash costs to be lower in Q4 than they were for the first three quarters of this year because of operational increases, production increases, and some of the things that Ludovico mentioned that would improve costs at Penon in particular. I don't believe that we will be at $400 per ounce because of the changing currencies, the increase in consumable costs, we will be in that lower end of the 400s. Somewhere between $400 and where we were to the end of Q3. On a byproduct basis, we expect to be below $175 per ounce.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Christie. Your line is now open.

Brian Christie - Desjardins Securities

Analyst · Brian Christie. Your line is now open

A couple of questions here for Chuck. I see that you had higher sales than your production, Chuck. I assume that that material probably came out of inventory and hence the inventory adjustment. Then just wondering there seemed to be a pretty good jump in accounts receivable. Can you give any color on that?

Charles Main

Management

Yes, on the sales versus the production, the inverse was true in Q2. So we had a bit of a buildup of inventory that we basically sold in the third quarter, so that was expected. On the receivables, it is two impacts. One, Chapada had record sales of 80,000 dry tons of concentrate this quarter, so your receivables are going to be higher. Also those receivables are marked to market at the quarter end metal prices, which had continued to rise so that would have increased the value of receivables as well. Does that cover your question?

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anita Soni. Your line is open.

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

First of all, you said Jeronimo, Jacobina and Suruca, those are the ones that will get you to 1.7 million ounces, was that in 2013, the tail end?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Let me clarify. I'm sorry, Anita when you first came on the line you were fading into the question. You were asking if Jeronimo, Jacobina and Suruca?

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

Yes.

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Would be adding to that production level that takes us to 1.7...

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

Basically, I'm just asking when are the startups, mid year, Q4 or Q3?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Yes, and what I wanted to clarify is that 1.5 million ounces, and then 1.7 million ounces, is based on projects where we have delivered feasibility study and made construction decisions. What I said in the presentation is that it does not include Jeronimo, it does not include an expansion at Jacobina, and does not include any production that will come from Suruca. I will be very reluctant to say to you if that's 2013 or beyond, or how many ounces will come from it, other than broad guidance, because we are now working through the feasibility studies.

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

Then the ones that you've got feasibility studies delivered on, or are working on are Mercedes, with the startup of mid-2012 of about 120,000 ounces for the annualized. The C1 Santa Luz, when is the start-up of that one?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

We're expecting that that would be some time late in 2012.

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

Late 2012 and then Ernesto/Pau-a-Pique is more specific than 2012 ...?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Again, same thing, late 2012.

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

I'm not quite getting there in terms of the 1.5. Is there any other substantial increase?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Yes, remember we're doing an expansion at Minera, Florida. That accounts for the tailings that we are processing, that should be another 40,000 ounces. Add if we add that to the production level that we expect to be at in 2011 with improvements at Penon that take it to the higher end of our guidance at 400,000 to 420,000 ounces. Jacobina, the same thing, we expect to be at about 120,000 ounces or a bit higher than that, you should be getting to a number that is 1.5 million ounces.

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

By the end of 2012?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

By the exit of 2012.

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

Sorry. What are your expectations for Chapada in 2012?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

We will get you the number, Anita.

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

Okay.

Peter Marrone

Chairman

As we published what is the mine plan for Chapada but as you know, we accelerated the 22 million ton expansion. So that as Ludovico mentioned in his presentation we are now near complete that expansion. So why don't we get you the number of what we now expect to be the production level in 2012.

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

Then my second question is with respect to the Gualcamayo. You said you're experiencing longer leach recovery times, or that you had more ore in inventory for the third quarter. When do you expect that to reverse, fourth quarter, or fourth and first?

Ludovico Costa

Management

Anita, Ludovico here. Some of that, yes, was back in the fourth quarter, but the other was during 2011.

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

More of a delayed kind of draw down for over the entire year, or just all in the first quarter?

Ludovico Costa

Management

No, it's going to be throughout the year.

Peter Marrone

Chairman

May I clarify also that, and this may have been part of Anita's question. When we refer to the production levels of 1.5 million and 1.7 million ounces and Chapada's production. Again, we will get back to you, Anita, on what that production is with the 22 million tons, but we're not including any ore coming from Suruca in that. We're not including any production coming from Suruca. That would supplement any production to what we expect to produce. Although I would find it again, we will be optimistic always, but it would be difficult to see that we would be in production with Suruca by 2012. It would more likely be in 2013. We will keep everybody informed as we complete that production plan by the end of this year.

Anita Soni - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Anita Soni. Your line is open

Just not to belabor the point and just to clarify, when you say 1.5 million ounces, do you mean annualized production and that is what you will exit 2012 at, or that you actually produce 1.5 million ounces in 2012?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

No, as you see in our presentation, Anita, the second to last slide, we are expecting 1.3 million ounces in 2012, as we ramp up the operations and then we would be exiting 2012 with 1.5 million.

Operator

Operator

Your next question, David Haughton. Your line is open.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

I saw in your MD&A that you are referring to an optimization study at El Penon. What are you looking to get out of that?

Ludovico Costa

Management

Basically, David, we look for two things there. One is the opportunity that we have in the plant, as you know we have increased the grinding capacity at Penon, and with that we have seen that we can have a better recovery there, as we have seen there this quarter and this quarter. That is one thing and the other thing is we are always looking for new opportunities on the new veins discovered there at Penon, and that of course would depend on the grades that we have. As you know, this year we are starting to develop the Bonanza vein in the fourth quarter. That is going increase the grades for next year. This is the kind of optimization we are looking for.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

So it is really at the moment your mills go to capacity of 5,000 tons a day, you are currently mining around about 4,000 tons a day, so is it to fill that gap, to see if you can get your mining rate to more closely match your milling rate?

Ludovico Costa

Management

That can be an opportunity, but we are basically looking for better improvements on the mine with the higher grades, and perhaps with lower dilution, and so on.

Peter Marrone

Chairman

We will always keep some capacity in the plant. We won't go to 5,000 tons. We will stay, our expectation on this optimization presently, David, is in the low-4000s. To highlight what Ludovico mentioned, the optimizations include how can we mitigate dilution, how can we accelerate higher grade areas, and higher grade veins.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

On average, what kind of dilution are you looking at the moment?

Ludovico Costa

Management

From 27% to 35%.

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Which is consistent with the historical levels at Penon.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Just switching to another mine, Jacobina. When would you expect to be processing the higher grade Canavieiras ore?

Ludovico Costa

Management

We are processing some of the Canavieiras ore right now, David, and we are always looking to increase there. As we mentioned, if we have a better reserves there, and as we can expect it, then we are always keen to put more ore from Canavieiras. I say right now we can estimate for the end of 2011, or 2012.

David Haughton - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

What sort of contribution would you be thinking about from that higher grade ore, which is nearly double the grade of the other ore body that you have got there?

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Again, a very good question, but I hope you bear with us, because that is part of what we have described as that expansion plan at Jacobina. The expansion plan is essentially getting more proven and probable reserves in the higher grade areas that include Canavieiras, and then we have the plant capacity, and the idea is then with the higher grade, the plant capacity, we should be getting more ounces of production. So, I hope you bear with us as we complete that expansion analysis. We should be in a position to report more on that early in the New Year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Butler. Your line is open.

Steve Butler - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Steve Butler. Your line is open

Gualcamayo, Peter, Ludovico, you mentioned in your address the higher carbon, I believe that must be higher carbonaceous ores or at least in the limestone, any comments there or any concerns that you have on carbon in the ore?

Ludovico Costa

Management

No, we don't have, Steve, we've just identified that there are some areas that has this carbonaceous ore, but it varies by area, we just had to really kind of control the quantity that we place on the pads, and if that's necessary to avoid to even place on the pads but up to now, is a very small area.

Steve Butler - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Steve Butler. Your line is open

The new conveyor belts with the greater speed if you will, or throughput per hour, is that expansion done yet, or is it still in progress?

Ludovico Costa

Management

Most of this is already done, basically from the secondary crusher up to the pads is already done, and we are now working on the primary crusher.

Steve Butler - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Steve Butler. Your line is open

So, that's a Q4. Still going to be therefore some delays in production in the fourth quarter, as you complete that other leg of the conveyor system?

Ludovico Costa

Management

No, I don't think so is this, because we have already built a stockpile from the mine up to the secondary crusher there, and while we're improving our upgrade on the primary crusher, we're going to use that stockpile.

Steve Butler - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Steve Butler. Your line is open

You mentioned that dilution you guys are at El Penon about 25%-37% consistent, Peter with historical levels. So there is not a concern, is there, for the dilution being restated at year end for El Penon's overall reserve base, which is 7 grams?

Ludovico Costa

Management

No, I don't think so Steve. Of course, that's always going to depend on the new discovery and size of the veins, but I don't think so, because what we are seeing is more or less of the same width of the veins.

Steve Butler - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Steve Butler. Your line is open

Then the North Block area, I mean that has been, I assume there has been some production contribution, although it has obviously been quite insignificant. Can you say which veins you have been mining in the North Block area, it sounds like Bonanza itself has actually not mined at all perhaps now in Q4 and next year?

Ludovico Costa

Management

Yes. We have a very good contribution from less right now, and the Bonanza very small, I would say in the range of 7% to 10% for both areas.

Steve Butler - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Steve Butler. Your line is open

7% to 10% on a combined basis?

Ludovico Costa

Management

Yes.

Steve Butler - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Steve Butler. Your line is open

You expect that to be a little bit better number in the fourth quarter here?

Ludovico Costa

Management

Yes, from 12% to 15% perhaps if we get right.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions)

Peter Marrone

Chairman

I don't know if the absence of further questions is because Steve had mentioned that it is almost lunch time. Perhaps if we can just leave it open for a few more minutes on any questions. Are there any other questions?

Operator

Operator

No further questions at this time, sir.

Peter Marrone

Chairman

Then, thank you very much for that. Perhaps I can conclude the presentation with just a summary of upcoming events. We have a tour of some of our mines. This will include Chapada and Minera Florida, along with the Pilar project, which begins on November 16. We will provide an exploration update before end of year. We will provide our production plan for Chapada based on our Suruca discovery around year-end, and we have scheduled an Investor Day on January 12 next year, which will highlight our guidance going forward, what we believe to be the positive impact of our resources growth and our future developments. With that, thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. We look forward to reconvening at our next conference call.