George Gleason
Chief Executive Officer
Jennifer, I am still not too concerned about it. Let me make a few comments on that. If you look at our September 30, 2014, 10-Q on page 55 of that Q, you would have noticed a table that showed the percentage of our loans by State of originating office. And at that point, Texas accounted for a little over 50% of our total originations came from our dozen or so offices in Texas. But those Texas, offices include the Dallas, Houston, and Austin offices of our Real Estate Specialties Group that has made loans in 41 States, at September 30, and rolling forward to December 31, had loans literally all across the country. So to say that we have over 50% of our loans in Texas, is a misnomer and inaccuracy because - in fact, our Texas, offices have originated over 50% of our loan, but the portion in Texas is much less than that. If you look at the geographic distribution of our non-purchased real estate loans that are on pages 56 through 58 of that September 30, 2014 10-Q2, you can see a breakdown of loans by State of collateral. And Texas is our second largest state for loans at September 30, trailing Arkansas. At that time Texas accounted for about 23.8% of our non-purchased real estate loans and about 20.2% of all of our non-purchased loans as of September 30. So, yes, we have a significant amount of loans in Texas, but it's not the 50% plus that one might surmise if they look just at the state of originating office. Now, with that said, I want to tell you if we had 50% or 60% or 70% of our loans in Texas, that would not bother me at all. Because I think the Texas economy even in the depressed oil price environment is still one of the best economies in the United States. We've seen previous oil shocks in the past, this is not a new phenomena, if you go back to the early to mid 80s, there was a multi year drop in oil prices and that drop in oil prices did have a fairly significant adverse effect on the State of Texas. But at that point in time the percentage of oil and gas as a percent of taxes, total GDP was much higher, many percentage points higher than I believe it is now. And that drop in oil prices in the 80s occurred at the same time that our country was going through a farm crisis, a savings and loan crisis and the wake of poll workers wore on inflation. The effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986, that eliminated passive loss deductions on real estate and reset real estate values to true economic values which reset those downward. Texas was hard hit by all of those phenomena in the 80s at the same time that it was incurred in that oil and gas shock. So that was a really tough time on the State of Texas. But Texas is a much different economy today, far more diversified or less dependent upon oil and gas than it was in the 80s. We've seen a couple of other oil and gas price shocks, and I think it was 1991 or so and then 2001, 2002, that had very minimal effects and then 2008, 2009, while the country was entering into and going through the great recession, oil and gas prices dropped from like $140 a barrel to $40 a barrel and yet the Texas economy because of it's diversification rebounded very quickly even in the midst of the great recession was one of the fastest State to come out of that in one of the strongest forms. So I think one has to keep all this in perspective. The other thing that is different about Texas, today than in even 2008, 2009, and certainly than the 80, is there is not an excess supply of real estate product out there in most of the markets. We're doing lots loans in Texas, we're doing home loans in Texas, and most of these transactions we’re looking at there as far below in equilibrium supply of lots in homes existing. If you’re doing apartment projects, the demand exceeds the supply of apartments, if you’re looking at office projects in Texas, I think there was an article yesterday or this morning in one of the Dallas, media outlets, maybe in the Dallas morning news talking about the fact that the vacancy rates on office in the Dallas area are the lowest in a decade. So, when you look at the supply demand metrics in the state of Texas, there is really an under supply of most real estate types. So I think if you’re concerned about a real estate lender like us in the State of Texas, that's a very conservative low leverage real estate lender on high quality projects, I just don't think there's going to be much of any significant adverse impact. And if you look at that chart in our Q on page 56, where the geographic distribution of our loans are obviously the Midland/Odessa MSA is probably the most vulnerable in Texas. We had $23 million of assets by year end in CRE in construction and development, those are very low leverage assets, I think it’s two or three assets. One of those assets is off right into over 4X debt surface coverage, the last time I looked at that a couple of months ago. And when you're in places like Midland/Odessa or Sweetwater or some of these other just totally all depended markets, that still exists out in other areas of Texas, that's the way you underwrite credits is you underwrite realizing that's it’s a boom-and-bust economy. And when you underwrite things in a boom cycle, you set your leverage and your debt service coverage like a pour - debt service coverage target so they work in the bust parts of the cycle. So we have very little exposure in the Texas markets like Midland/Odessa that are very dependent on oil and gas or very conservatively underwritten on most exposures. So we just feel very good about those assets. At September 30, in Houston MSA - Houston/Woodland/Sugarland MSA we had about $157 million in assets in Houston, excluding purchased assets. And we got one of our big pay-offs in Q4, we had a lot of pay-offs in Q4. In the last day of the quarter we got $37 million pay-off on our loan in Houston. And I can tell you we were extremely sad to see that loan go because it was a very high quality asset, and we’re making new loans in Houston today, we’re entertaining new loan opportunities. We’re not running from any of these markets because they’re fundamentally sound markets and if you're underwriting quality projects at low leverage that make really good economic sense, the real estate market is such that there is a need for more supply not less supply of most types in most markets in Texas, today. So I think concerns about real estate values in Texas are way, way overblown.