Stephen I. Chazen
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Pretty much a lot of the growth is baked in for the next few years with the capital we've invested. But we need to do it with returns. It isn't just about volume growth. At some point in size, the need for capital becomes so -- a typical E&P today, whatever they say, I mean, they may sell assets to fund it, is spending, I don't know, 150% of its cash flow on capital. We obviously aren't spending anywhere near that nor would we. So you can't grow as quickly as they do. We spend more on capital as a percentage than are generated [ph]. So it's attempt to do both. I don't know where you come out in the percentages. Obviously, if we said, well, we're going to grow 15% a year, that wouldn't be something we could do. But we need to grow at a moderate rate, because I think the business -- if you don't grow at least some and on a regular basis, I don't mean by saying, well, in 2014 -- in 2017, we're on track for our 2017 program. We're going to grow in 2017, meanwhile we're going to deplete 5% a year. That's not what I call growth. But regular growth, you have a hard time attracting people, investors tend not to like it, they tend to compare you to basically depleting businesses. So you got to have a fair amount of growth. I don't know what the right percentage is. Right now, it's 5% to 8%. We're running really about 5%, currently. And there'll be a boost in 2015 from the Al Hosn project, which will bring the growth rate up. Over a long term, we're not going to just make the -- if you continue to drill high-decline wells, your capital will soar, because if your wells are declining 30%, 40%, you need huge amounts of cash to keep -- to replace the 40% and grow. And so we're shifting the program to more stable things so we can keep the capital under control. And that's really what we're doing underneath the hood, if you were to look at it that way. Instead of drilling as many high-decline wells, we're drilling more -- we're doing more stuff that has a lesser decline rate, which is what we historically did.