Earnings Labs

Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 31, 2024

$8.89

-0.34%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-4.07%

1 Week

+1.70%

1 Month

+2.86%

vs S&P

-3.34%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Blue Owl Capital's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. During the presentation, your lines will remain on listen-only. I'd like to advise all parties that this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Ann Dai, Head of Investor Relations for Blue Owl.

Ann Dai

Management

Thanks, Operator, and good morning to everyone. Joining me today are Marc Lipschultz, our Co-Chief Executive Officer, and Alan Kirshenbaum, our Chief Financial Officer. I'd like to remind our listeners that remarks made during the call may contain forward-looking statements, which are not a guarantee of future performance or results and involve a number of risks and uncertainties that are outside the company's control. Actual results may differ materially from those in forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those described from time to time in Blue Owl Capital's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. We'd also like to remind everyone that we'll refer to non-GAAP measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in our earnings presentation, available on the shareholder section of our website at blueowl.com. Please note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Blue Owl fund. This morning, we issued our financial results for the third quarter of 2024, reporting fee-related earnings or FRE of $0.22 per share and distributable earnings or DE of $0.20 per share. We also declared a dividend of $0.18 per share for the third quarter, payable on November 22nd to holders of record as of November 11th. During the call today, we'll be referring to the earnings presentation, which we posted to our website this morning, so please have that on hand to follow along. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Marc.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Great, thank you so much, Ann. During the third quarter, Blue Owl continued to generate extremely strong growth while making significant progress on our strategic M&A goals, further diversifying our business and positioning us well to participate in the transformational shifts happening within the financial markets. Over the last 12 months, we've grown management fees by 26%, fee-related earnings by 27%, and distributable earnings by 22%, all compared to the prior year period. Looking back further, we have grown management fees by nearly 200% and FRE by over 150% in just three and a half years, representing 14 consecutive quarters of growth in these metrics. We've achieved these impressive results through inflationary periods, geopolitical events, rate volatility, and a significant slowdown in capital markets, highlighting the stability and strength of our business and the durability of our earnings. And the vast majority of this growth has been organic, driven by a handful of factors which we think make Blue Owl's business model very distinct. One, we have extremely high levels of permanent capital, meaning few assets lead the system. For many of our products, there is zero redemption, so every incremental dollar of assets raised contributes to our earnings layer cake. Two, our earnings are essentially all management fee-driven, so we don't experience the same type of volatility or uncertainty that many others see during periods of market transition, as we've observed. Three, our business is geared towards the largest secular trends within the alternative asset market. These include the growth of direct lending, the increasing importance of alternatives in the wealth channel, a growing number of investment-grade companies looking for bespoke capital solutions like net lease, and the rising capital needs of alternative asset managers themselves. And this is intentional positioning. It has been by design that we chose…

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Thank you, Marc, and good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased with the results we reported this quarter, with continued strong trends across key metrics such as revenue and earnings growth, fundraising, and deployment. Our 14th consecutive quarter of management fee and FRE growth, our second-strongest fundraising quarter ever, coming from increasingly diverse sources and a record fundraising quarter in private wealth. Those statistics have been driven almost entirely by our organic growth, and as we start to layer in the impact of the new businesses we've brought on, we're very excited about what lies ahead. Let's go through some of our key highlights on an LTM year-over-year basis through September 30th. Management fees are up 26%, and 91% of these management fees are from permanent capital vehicles. FRE is up 27%, and DE is up 22%. As you can see on Slide 13, we raised $7.9 billion of equity in the third quarter and $24.2 billion for the last 12 months, an increase of 67% from the prior last 12-month period. I'll break down the third quarter fundraising numbers across our strategies and products. In credit, we raised $3.1 billion. $2.4 billion was raised in our direct lending strategies, of which $1.5 billion came from our non-traded diversified BDC, OCIC, 65% more than what we raised in the third quarter of 2023. Inclusive of the October 1 close, we are nearing $14 billion raised for OCIC since inception. The remainder was raised primarily through insurance solutions and in strategic equity. In GP strategic capital, we raised $3.5 billion during the quarter, including $2.4 billion across our large cap strategies latest fund and co-invest vehicles, bringing the latest vintage to $5.3 billion. And we remain confident in our ability to achieve our $13 billion goal by the end of 2025. We…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Alex Blostein

Analyst

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question. So maybe just starting with the dividend in your last point there, I appreciate you guys obviously won't give us a whole lot of color, probably beyond '25 for now, but just philosophically knowing where you guys have come from, where you set the dividend originally, what payout you set originally, how are you thinking about the payout in the dividend structure over time? Is that still fair to assume that dividend will grow in line with FRE, in line with total earnings, in line with total earnings per share? How do you think about it off of this $.90 point?

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Yes, Alex, thanks for the question. And you're right, this is a dividend question. It's not necessarily an earnings question with my last comments. So we obviously outlined in our prepared remarks that over the last number of months, the SOFR curve average for '25 dropped by a lot, 130, 140 basis points. That could be up to a nickel impact on our per share basis. The SOFR curve since then has obviously come back a bit, but we have to take a conservative approach to how we set our dividend because we're setting it up a full year in advance. So on previous calls, we've talked a bit about the impact of rates on our Part 1 fees, that we have a business that is to some degree sensitive to SOFR levels. And we mentioned that if rates end up higher, then we have more capital that we can allocate to strategic initiatives. We have a lower payout ratio. So that payout ratio will continue to flex. And I guess to some extent, for a minute, let's pull the lens back just to put this all in perspective. As a reminder, when we had our Investor Day back in May of 2022, we called for a 35% annualized revenue growth through the end of 2025. We'll end up posting, let's say low 30% growth for that timeframe. So we're about 10% off and the dividend about 10% off. When you look at our low 30% annual growth compared to our peers growth over the same time period, we're about 2 to 2.5 times the average of our peers. And so, the focus on the dividend certainly we think has overshadowed to some extent an extraordinary growth story here that will continue now to your point into 2025 and frankly, well beyond based on the recent acquisitions we've done. So we certainly think it's working. We'll have our Investor Day on February 7th. We're super excited to come out and talk about what we think we can do well beyond 2025. But if you just focus on 2025 for a minute, we think we'll continue to put up when you think about management fees, FRE revenue, FRE, similar growth rates in '25 is what we think we're going to post in 2024. So on an LTM basis, we're about 30% revenue growth right now. We are mid 20s or so, little over that in FRE. We think we can produce similar results, let's say upper 20s or more percent growth for revenues and next year and FRE, mid to upper 20s percent growth.

Alex Blostein

Analyst

All right, thanks, good.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Of course. Thank you, Alex.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Marc, Alan, good morning and hope everyone's doing well. Our question is on product innovation. So you guys have been very active on the M&A front. You have access to new capabilities in verticals where client demand trends and also performance are both strong. Can you talk about your ability to launch new products given these new capabilities in the private wealth vertical? And we're hoping to see some new products in the semi liquid wrapper over the year term.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Yes, thank you very much. And really a critical question on a critical topic. When we take a look at over the last year, and frankly, last several years, as we've been very intentional about filling in product opportunities with two attributes, one most importantly, where we can deliver an exceptional risk adjusted return for the investors because of this match of supply and demand of capital. And importantly, where we can then also innovate product and product structure, so that as Blue Owl, we can continue our extremely strong growth rates. And so you're absolutely correct in putting your finger on what we can now do with things like alternative credit and with hyperscale data centers. So let me tease that out a little more. In both instances, and frankly, in all instances where we've acquired businesses, if you sort of think about this world of organic or inorganic growth, buy or build, what we've really landed on very intentionally is a hybrid strategy, maybe in the three bears, it's the just right strategy. And it's about how to take a absolute best of breed capability team and marry that together with the Blue Owl platform and be able to infuse superior or enhanced origination capabilities, enhanced operational support, and very importantly, to your point, product innovation. So lots of people are going to use the words alternative credit on their calls and their meetings, and lots of people are going to use the word data centers on their calls and in their meetings. But what does it take to really thrive in the business? What it takes is, again, outstanding skills, married with the right kind of innovation and platform. And I think that's exactly what we're offering. And that's why Adelaide chose to come to us and…

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Marc, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Glenn Schorr

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Hi there. Maybe we could pick up where we just left off. So I definitely get, and I saw the progress you made with Oak Street on bringing the new strategy to the wealth platform in a permanent capital vehicle. So don't need to repeat what you just said there. These businesses, they have institutional businesses of their own. So I see the extension into the wealth platform and the synergies. Maybe we could talk about how they may or may not work together. In other words, one of the things we think about with a fully integrated platform is being able to deliver like a full solution to certain LPs as they consolidate GPs. Is that a plan? Is that like five years down the road? Is that something that's required? Is that something that you can do and have you cross-sold to LPs of your original three franchises? Thanks.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Yes. And collectively and ourselves included put, I don't want to say excess emphasis on wealth because it's a monumentally important and distinctive capability we have. But institutional growth has been incredibly important and absolutely made clear. Cross-selling has become very much a part of our business. And actually one of, again, the opportunities, you look at the overlap between our LP base, for example, and IPI's LP base, very limited. And in fact, they bring some incredible, very large pools of capital that we've not historically done business with. And so I think cross-selling is very much a part of that synergy that we all talk about. Again, what we don't want to do ever is disrupt the world-class investment capabilities and processes these firms already have. And that's part of, again, this sort of buy-build model. What we do want to do is enhance origination and enhance distribution. And you're absolutely correct. The institutional cross-sell is just as important. Doug Ostrover has been circling the globe talking to institutions. And the interest in these products when married to Blue Owl is a big part of the upside story. Remember, take a firm like Adelaide, which has been doing alternative credit for 20 years. Let me repeat that, 20 years. Everybody is going to talk about, hey, I'm going to get into alternative credit, partly because motivated by, hey, I want to have all solutions for all people. We don't want to have all solutions for all people. We want to have outstanding solutions in every area we participate in, and particularly in a series of products that are about downside protection, capital preservation, durability, often with an income component. We know who we are, and what we're going to do is not have every product, but we are…

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Thank you, Glenn.

Glenn Schorr

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next, your next question comes from the line of Brian McKenna with Citizens JMP. Your line is open.

Brian McKenna

Analyst · Citizens JMP. Your line is open.

Okay. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So I had a question on your core direct lending business. You've raised the majority of AUM today through your private BDCs. And obviously, you're raising through the wealth channel as well. So moving forward, you'll continue to raise AUM through your non-traded products, but what's the outlook for fundraising on the institutional side? Will you look to add some additional private BDCs or is there an opportunity for some GP, LP funds? I'm just trying to get a sense of the trajectory of direct lending fundraising from here.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Yes, look, it obviously remains a central theme, of course, for us and for our investors, institutional and wealth alike. Again, we'll, which as you correctly just commented on wealth, it continues to be an incredible engine. We've continued to, in fact, we've had our record quarter in wealth and aggregate across all our products. We continue to develop very strong interest across platforms and within platforms for our direct lending product and very low redemption, so that's in a really, really healthy place. With regard to the sort of a prospect for growth in total, look, private BDCs, absolutely a continued option, depending on the exact strategy and how we want to build it as are GPLP funds, to your good point. Look, we've never wanted the structure to be either the impediment or the definition of what we do, what we want to do and have done is deliver the best results in credit. Remember, we've done $100 billion of loan originations and at a seven basis point running loss rate and delivered spectacular yields for our investors. What we want to make sure is that any investor that wants to participate in that has the on-ramp to do so, and the on-ramp doesn't define their result. Remember, we share every loan we have between any one of the relevant vehicles we develop and we have far fewer vehicles. So an investor in our program in any on-ramp is going to experience our best of breed results. And that's really important to us and should be really important to the investors, individuals and institutions alike. So if people want to come to us through a GPLP structure, we're very happy to do that. We do it with SMAs for some bespoke cases. We've clearly done it, as you said, with private BDCs that can then either be private or can become public BDCs. So we'll continue to develop innovate on-ramps to be able to access in the way that is best suited to the investor. So I think you can expect us to continue to look at all those options depending on the product. In some areas, like direct lending, I think we've seen just given where the market has evolved, the people are putting more capital now into either continuously offered products or into GPLP funds. That's great. Though we're happy with any of those choices. What do you think about new things like alternative credit or hyperscale data centers? There's probably some pretty innovative structures that we can, again, add to the mix on top of the traditional fund structures. So we'll continue to develop them all, access them all, and again, provide them all because we're trying to meet our investors where they are, not try to drive them into the structure we prefer.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

We also have, Brian, some evergreen structures on the institutional side that will continuously take in fundraising dollars every quarter.

Brian McKenna

Analyst · Citizens JMP. Your line is open.

Got it. Helpful. Thank you, guys.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Thank you, Brian.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brennan Hawken with UBS. Your line is open.

Brennan Hawken

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I was hoping to follow up on the dividend discussion. So can you remind us, number one, I have from my notes 100 basis points translate to about 40 million to 50 million of annual Part 1 fees. Is that still the right way to think about it? And when we're thinking about the $0.90, are you still, you made a couple references to payout ratio, but it wasn't crystal clear to me whether or not that's changing versus what you guys updated last quarter to have the payout ratio approach and be up to 100%. So is there any shift in either of those? Thanks.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Sure. Thanks, Brennan. The former part is going to depend on where the SOFR curve ultimately ends up for 2025. I think the way to think about the 100 basis points move is we have a growing business in the BDC platform, right? So in 2024, we were using 100 basis points was about 40 plus million dollars. For 2025, you should look at that as 50 plus million because again, we continue to grow that platform. So depending on where the SOFR curve ultimately ends up, that will flex our payout ratio. So this may again, just be a dividend question, not necessarily an earnings question. If rates come in higher, then we'll have more capital to deploy in strategic initiatives. We'll have a lower payout ratio. If rates come in lower where the curve is currently sitting, then the payout ratio will be higher.

Brennan Hawken

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Thanks for clarifying that. And Marc, how about that game last night?

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Yes, that was a four, eight.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

We were in New York, a bit of a heartbreaker.

Brennan Hawken

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Yes, they lost. The Dodgers didn't win.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Yes. Yes, unfortunately, that's exactly right. And look, nothing has changed by way of how we focus on. And again, we own, the management team owns 25% of the outstanding shares. So we are very focused on, as I may have said in their prepared remarks, paying out the bulk of our earnings in dividends. That has not changed at all.

Brennan Hawken

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Perfect. Thanks for that clarity.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Thank you. Thanks Brennan.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Tabak with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Steven Tabak

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. So I wanted to start off with just a question on the FRE growth algorithm. Taking a step back, reflecting on the firm's journey over the past few years at the '22 Investor Day, you laid out various targets with the exception of the dividend target, you're on track to meet or exceed many of these goals. Fast forward to today and what we've been hearing on the call, a lot of focus on the increased scale of the platform, more industry verticals, greater channel breadth. I want to get a sense as to how you're thinking about the FRE growth algorithm over the next several years, whether there's any sneak peek or breadcrumbs you can offer as you're thinking through that growth roadmap ahead of the February 7th Investor Day?

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Let me talk about the positioning for that. And then I think Alan can fill in a bit. Look, obviously we'll get into a lot of details come February 7th and we look forward to that. I think what we're trying to make sure we convey in a very transparent fashion is look, this has been a monumentally successful chapter. And we also have a lot of conviction. We have now set the stage, the table for the next chapter to be monumentally successful. We will continue to outperform in our view, the industry, because we're positioned in the highest growth areas with a superior business model. Remember today still 91% of our revenues come from permanent capital. And all of our revenues, our fees, just pause and think about the durability and predictability of that model. And that have led to, I would say, and we're looking back multiple years now, as you said, to our last coming up on three years. And here we are on or ahead of nearly every measure through the turbulence of the last few years. I mean, how many revisions have there been in other people's numbers with Kerry and the like? And here we are just marching on 14th consecutive quarter. We intend to continue that journey. Now we'll get into the exact numbers going forward, but with our existing products that continue to have great organic opportunities, real estate, we've already 60% deployed, as you just heard, or committed, I should say, in our most recent real estate fund that's all a year old. And mind you, it's been done at spectacular terms. This last quarter in real estate, just to give you a flavor, not to digress far, in real estate, we acquired $800 million of assets with actually another…

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

So I'll just add to that, Steven, and I'll be more specific with numbers. Look, generally speaking for 2024, you could see LTM 26%, FRE growth. For 2024, I think you should expect mid 20% FRE growth. I think for 2025, I mentioned earlier, I think with the first question, I think you could expect mid 20% FRE growth for 2025. Beyond that, stay tuned, of course. We'll talk a lot more about that and the next number of years on February 7th. But I will repeat what I've said in the past. We believe we can meet or exceed. We think we can continue to lead the industry in growth.

Steven Tabak

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Well said. Thanks for taking my questions. And yes, sorry about last night's debacle.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Thanks, Steven.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

To be clear, we're very happy for our LA-based shareholders. We look out for all our stakeholders.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

New York, we're a little mourning, bud.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Crispin Love with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Crispin Love

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. With lower base rates there, this hits Part 1 fees, which you discussed and is well known. We can all do the math there. But can you discuss some of the offsets that could come with lower rates, whether to pick up and deal activity, PE activity that needs to be something as fundraising or anything else worth mentioning? And is there any way to share how you're thinking about net impacts when you take into account all that? And I understand it's a little bit of a crystal ball question here, but just curious on your thoughts broadly? Thank you.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Absolutely, and a couple observations to set the stage. When we think about the comments we made today on the call, it's not taking particularly a view of net impacts, but rather what could be the adverse impacts given the volatility. Because when we think about setting a dividend, look, we're not going to know the answer to 2025 per se until the end of 2025, but we're going to set the dividend in the beginning. And so, we naturally are going to have to, or I guess we would say logically, build for the low case, whatever the variable might be, so to speak. And I don't mean the lowest possible cases in every instance. I'm not trying to be silly, but we take like rates, the low case. And yes, there are potential offsets, but we're not going to want to factor those in terms of setting expectations around our dividend. So there are offsets. Listen, when rates come down and what we have not factored in here at all is the -- and I'll call it the inescapable but unknown timing of a material increase in activity. Now remember, there's $2 trillion private equity capital that's still sitting on the sidelines and it's going to get invested. And how many, I know we've heard for quarters, everyone talking about all the green shoots, the green shoots you've never heard us say it because we didn't see them objectively. I still don't think there's evidence of a material snapback, but I know there will be a material snapback. Though there's a lot of reasons we can all hypothesize about it likely coming, probably starting in the first quarter, but you can't prove it today. And hope is not a strategy. So I think at the end of the day, from our perspective, there are absolutely offsets. A moderating rate environment or just a stabilizing environment should eventually will lead to a material pickup in PE activity. We look forward to that. That drives a lot of activity for us. And remember, there are places where that matters for us. Deployed capital is part of the calculation for us. And obviously there's the origination fee activity and there's just the demand and interest in reloading funds when people see there's a lot of attractive investment activity occurring. So yes, there are decidedly offsets which suspect will come into play in a moderated rate environment. But again, logically sitting here today, we're not trying to be so prescriptive about the exact number, but rather we are trying to make sure we have a comfortable landing spot assuming more negative relatively speaking cases than positive cases.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

And Crispin, I'll approach that from two perspectives if it's okay. Net impacts across our entire business. I think to some extent, I just talked to that when you think about the numbers I ran through kind of broad strokes. When you narrow that question, net impact to Part 1 fees. So we have, again, a growing BDC business. So we continuously take in funds. We're running at $6 to $7 billion a year of equity that we're raising in OCIC and OTIC combined. And so Part 1 fees will go up because of fundraising and deployment. We're also continuing to deploy our software lending BDC too. And so they'll go up for that reason. We suspect they'll come down for rates. And so I think you can use 4Q as kind of a diving off platform as a ballpark run rate number for 2025 as we go through the year, maybe up a little, maybe down a little, but I think that's a good kind of forecast if you will to think about where Part 1 fees can be. And then you add onto that though, potential listing of our software lending BDCs. That would create a step up, but putting that aside, I think you could use that as a base case run rate.

Crispin Love

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Great. Thank you, Marc and Alan, and appreciate all the color there.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Thank you, Crispin.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research. Your line is open.

Patrick Davitt

Analyst · Autonomous Research. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, everyone. So you closed a lot of acquisitions over the last few months. You mentioned Kuvare added a billion dollars of gross flow in 3Q. So could you give us an idea more broadly what the scale of flow from all of the deals was in 3Q? Secondly, is the 1 billion from Kuvare kind of the right quarterly run rate to be thinking about? And what could the contribution of all four deals look like in 4Q with Adelaide layering on as well? Thank you.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Sure. Thank you, Patrick. I'll take this. So I may have mentioned in my prepared remarks that we were able to raise this quarter, over 20% of our fundraise this quarter was from products that were not here a year ago. So that includes insurance solutions. It includes a little bit of alternative credit, a little bit of real estate credit. It includes the GP Stakes III strip sale, some real estate Europe. So we've got a number of products in there. I think generally speaking, it's obviously going to depend on rates, but I think approaching a billion dollars or almost a billion dollars is a good benchmark to use on a go-forward basis, again, pending any sharp moves in rates.

Patrick Davitt

Analyst · Autonomous Research. Your line is open.

And is there any sense of what Adelaide could run at quarterly now that it's in the mix?

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

I think Adelaide, let's see over the next 12 months because we have a couple of things happening there. We have the raise of ASOP9, which is our flagship product for us. And then we expect to be out in the first part of next year and the first half of next year with a wealth-focused product. And that will be a continuously offered product. And so we'll see fundraising start to ramp there and hopefully grow each quarter. And then you'll have overlaying that, the more episodic flagship raise.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Yes, I mean, it's really a great question because what you're getting at is we're adding more layers to our layer cake and more ways to add those layers. And so let's take Adelaide on now. They're on Fund 9 in this world of alternative credit. Again, maybe a new topic for some people. It's not new for them slash now us. And this is a great example. There was an earlier question about the cross-sell. We'll come on to the wealth opportunity, which is tremendous, but just the cross-sell of bringing together the existing capabilities of Adelaide with the distribution capabilities of Blue Owl. There are many institutions, many institutions obviously Blue Owl does business with, that Adelaide has not. And that is part of the opportunity in Fund 9, 10, 11, and as we continue. So I think you're putting your finger on it. Each one of these adds another slice to this ongoing growth opportunity set for us in assets the way you phrased it, ultimately converted into revenues and FRE where obviously our focus is.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

And one thing Marc may have mentioned in our prepared remarks was, of course we're focused on short-term and the product innovation that we're doing here. These acquisitions are really about three years from now, five years from now, seven years from now, where we can really take these businesses very similar or akin to what we did with the Oak Street triple net lease business.

Patrick Davitt

Analyst · Autonomous Research. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Thank you, Patrick, appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Katz with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Bill Katz

Analyst · TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Okay. Thank you very much for taking the question. So just coming back to some of the math behind some of this guidance, if you will, very loose numbers and I appreciate it. We still have a quarter to go and rates can do what they're going to do. I'm canceling out to about a 57% FRE margin inclusive of the impact of NCI. I was wanting to be just unpack, if that's right, just unpack to some of the key drivers. I think I appreciate the Part 1 fees. I'm trying to better understand the investment spending versus the proform mix of the transactions, if you will, versus just sort of this opportunity to grow across multi-vectored areas. And excuse me, is the broader takeaway here that you just more focus on the top line rather than margin and it could be a little bit more top line growth looking beyond sort of the transition of '25 to '26 at the expense of margins? Thank you.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Of course, Bill, thanks. Look, thanks for the question. So I guess let's start with this year, margins this year and I'll focus on margins similar place for the year as it is for the current quarter. The guidance we've previously given will be slightly below 60%, 59% in that ballpark. For 2025, nothing has changed there by way of guidance in the 57%, 58% ballpark. Over the longer term, we do see a path to 60%. I want to be clear, we are focused on margins. We are also focused on earnings growth. We're focused on a creative acquisitions. And so if more Adelaides [ph] come along, lower margin, accretive deals, we will do that. And so we're very focused on earnings growth overall. And I think that's part of what we've outlined a little bit, I guess, to give a taste of February 7th. But we are very focused on overall earnings growth.

Bill Katz

Analyst · TD Cowen. Your line is open.

I'm sorry to interrupt you. Just to clarify that 57, 58, just want to make sure I'm thinking about apples, apples. Is that gross of NCI?

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

It is gross of NCI, that's right. So this quarter is 59 and change, growth of NCI for the year will roughly be in the same ballpark and then 57, 58, gross of NCI for 2025.

Bill Katz

Analyst · TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Super helpful, thank you. Sorry to interrupt you, Marc.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

I was just going to clarify that. Look, we're crystal clear on our job for our shareholders, which is to drive outstanding FRE growth and DE growth and deliver the bulk of that to our shareholders. And the decisions we're making, which again, if you all have, and we appreciate it, have mapped us since we've been public, we've steadily made those kinds of decisions to make sure that we are setting the stage not for, hey, what's the single best answer for a given quarter, but what is the answer to continue to lead the market? Take a step back, you know, we have come over the last -- since we went public, our management fees have compounded at 37%, our FRE revenues at 34%, and our FRE at 32%, and our dividend at just about 30%. So, I think our job is to make sure we're always, and this is what you're counting on us to do, making those sort of short-term decisions and trade-offs to develop that sort of exceptional long-term trajectory. And I think we feel really good that we're getting the pieces in place to, and I don't mean numerically continue, but this trajectory onward. And in moments that we'll choose to make investments in that, in moments that'll yield kind of excessive results. So our job is to take care of all that and make sure we continue to be a market leader on all those metrics.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Thank you, Bill.

Bill Katz

Analyst · TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Thank you both.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Brian Bedell

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks. Thanks so much. Most of my questions were asked and answered. Maybe just one more on deployment. Marc, you talked about, you gave us some good color there on the PE market potentially coming back. Maybe just to think about that $260 million of fees that would be activated upon deployment. Any sort of view or update, I guess, on what you are viewing as the timing of that and whether that, it sounds like that might be softer initially here, just in the fourth quarter and going into one queue, or is that not correct? You take a look back right back up?

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Yes, deployment has been really good. I mean, you know, if you take a look at this year, we're tracking at really exceptional levels. We had our record quarter last quarter. This quarter is just about on top of our kind of strongest quarters from 2021. And that is in a very tepid M&A environment or PE M&A environment and one where the syndicated market is wide open. So I actually would take the read through, frankly, from this quarter to be extraordinarily healthy about the state of the private market and the demand for our solutions. Once we get, and again, it is a when, not an if. Once we get PE activity picking up, and if we have any moderation in the syndicated market, I mean, you're setting, we're collectively setting the stage or looking at an opportunity set for pretty meaningful optics. So you'll look at this year, it's already high and it's high in what you would probably consider the least favorable environment for volume of deployment, active syndicated market, relatively inactive PE market. So, you know, I wasn't trying to talk down the, by any measure, the offsets that will come. Characterizing offsets, future growth opportunities. Again, we're just trying to make sure when we set different targets, we take a sober view or a conservative view. But in terms of the opportunities that I had, I think we're, to be clear, very bullish about deployment. And I just, I can't tell you, I know what quarter that switch is on, right? Really got to talk to the PE folks about that, but it's going to happen. And the sooner, the more rapidly that goes to work and more rapidly that converts into fee paying assets and more rapidly our revenues and earnings grow. And it's math. Again, we are not in the vulnerable business. We're not in the, you know, carry realization business. We're in the manage for fees business and our march will go on. So when the drummer picks up the beat with PE activity, we'll march faster.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Thank you, Brian.

Brian Bedell

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Alex Blostein

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Hey guys, sorry. I appreciate the follow-up. Just to clarify, Alan, just we've got a couple of questions around. When you talk about a mid-20s FRE kind of guidance target for 2025, that's an all-in FRE dollar number, right? That is not per share. That is not net of NCI. It is inclusive of the pending deal. So IPI is included within that or no? I just want to clarify.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

It's the first thing you said. That's right. It's a dollar amount.

Alex Blostein

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Right. And all in, including the deal, IPI?

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Yes.

Alex Blostein

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

All right. Cool. Thanks for clarifying.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Of course. Thank you, Alex.

Operator

Operator

I will now turn the call back over to Marc Lipschultz for closing remarks.

Marc Lipschultz

Management

Well, thank you everybody. Look, we really appreciate the time and the thoughtful engagement. We're excited to have delivered our 14th consecutive quarter of growth. We are excited to look back over the last few years and deliver the kind of performance we've delivered. We are more excited about looking ahead to the next several years, which we'll all talk about in detail on February 7th, but times look good to us. We're excited to be here and we appreciate your support and happy Halloween.

Alan Kirshenbaum

Management

Thank you everyone.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.