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Ovintiv Inc. (OVV)

Q3 2008 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 24, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies & gentlemen and thank you for standing by. Welcome to EnCana Corporation's Third Quarter 2008 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Members of the investment community will have the opportunity to ask questions first. At the conclusion of that session, members of the media may then ask questions. Please be advised that this conference call may not be recorded or rebroadcast without the express consent of EnCana corporation. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Paul Gagne, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Paul Gagne - Vice-President, Investor Relations

Analyst

Thank you, operator. And welcome everyone to a discussion of EnCana's third quarter 2008 results. Before we get started, I must refer you to the advisory on forward-looking statements contained in the news release, as well as the advisory on page one of EnCana's annual information form dated February 22nd, 2008, the latter of which is available on SEDAR. I'd like to draw your attention in particular to the material factors and assumptions in those advisories. In addition, I want to remind everyone that EnCana reports its financial results in U.S. dollars and operating results according to U.S. protocols, which means that production volumes and reserve amounts are reported on an after-royalties basis. Accordingly any reference to dollars, reserves or production information in this call will be in U.S. Dollars and U.S. protocols unless otherwise noted. Randy Eresman will start off with highlights of our gas assets and then turn the call over to Brian Ferguson, EnCana's CFO and Cenovus' CEO designate to discuss EnCana's financial performance as well as highlights of our integrated oil and shallow gas assets. Following some closing comments from Randy, our leadership team will be then available for questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy Eresman, President and CEO. Randy Eresman - President and Chief Executive Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of GasCo: Thank you, Paul. And thank you everyone for joining us today. Let me begin today's discussion of our quarterly results by saying how proud I am of the performance of our teams, that kept your eye in the ball for some very challenging times and have delivered what I believe to be exceptional, operating and financial results. I'd like to address the subject which is foremost on many people's minds. The impact of the global credit…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We will take our first question from Chris Theal, with Tristone Capital.

Christopher Theal - Tristone Capital Inc.

Analyst

I have only two questions, first on infill, looks like you are keeping your activity actually going up modestly through the year end. Other operators are talk about more faulting and that maybe more geologically complex, can you comment on that. And than how many rigs do you expect to run up at the horn over these winter. Thanks Randy Eresman - President and Chief Executive Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of GasCo: Thanks Chris, I guess one thing I would say is in both of the Haynesville and Horn River players like new initial plays are being pursued right now in the industry there are lot of them very early learning's that are taking place, there's very few data points in the overall plays. And so there is a lot of experimentation that's going to take place before we fully understand in our hard approach to development. And this is not unique, this is basically the way we approach our entire unconventional business overall. For the specifics on the Haynesville and Horn River players carried over the Jefferson, Jonah and Coalbed Methane [ph].

Jeff Wojahn - Executive Vice-President and President, USA Region and Designated President of the USA Division of GasCo

Analyst

Morning Chris. Jeff Wojahn. First I want to say that we're very excited about the resource potential and the acreage position that we have been able to assemble in Haynesville play. This is the tremendous resource with ten to TCS approaches that we have captured. We're very excited and encouraged by where we're today on this play. As far as activity for the remainder of the year, we plan to exit the year at around six rigs, I think we will have five horizontal well reserves in the fourth quarter. We're actively working on optimizing sand and water and pump inner wells and frac inner wells and all those things as well as trajectories of wells. I think in our conference call notes we've mentioned that we're going to drill a mid-borger, Haynesville play which is a very exciting opportunity for us in the shared inner-borger that we have not tested yet to date. So with that information I think we're going to long ways to improving our learning and understanding the play but right now we're very excited where we're.

Michael M. Graham - Executive Vice-President and President, Canadian Foothills Division and Designated President of the Canadian Division of GasCo

Analyst

Yes Chris, Mike Graham here. Just on the Horn River, we did drill seven wells this past winter and we done some very promising results, Randy commented on our last well, our biggest well to date and in the order about 8 million a day over the first month average and hopefully we can repeat those going forward. We got a big land position probably about 230,000 acres all in one big chunk if you will. The rigs... we're looking at drilling about 40 gross wells, with our partner Apache in 2009. Its currently what our plans are with, they are changing a little bit, but that's what we are thinking and really we'll we only need a couple rigs to do that. So we are actually mobilizing and we're moving a rig up the into the Horn River as we speak.

Christopher Theal - Tristone Capital Inc.

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Mark Gilman with The Benchmark Company.

Mark Gilman - The Benchmark Company

Analyst

Guys, good morning, good afternoon. Couple of questions on the Haynesville, Jeff or Randy, any thoughts yet albeit early in terms of recovery rate? What kind of royalties on the incremental acreage you acquired. Also Randy you spoke of challenges associated with land tenure [ph] and I was wondering if you could elaborate on that a little bit? Randy Eresman - President and Chief Executive Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of GasCo: Okay, there are some basic differences between the Haynesville and Horn River shale plays. In Haynesville a lot of land has been acquired on relatively short tenure as opposed the tenure that exists in North East British Columbia. And so a lot of the activity going to be undertaken by Encana in the next couple of years as well all of the industry participants will be on trying to determine where the best acre positions are in the play and how to retain as much of that land as possible. So this is high amount of activity that has to be undertaken and will not necessary contribute much to the bottom-line over the next couple of years. Whereas on the Horn River play I think Mike's program is really to start going into developing the gas factories that we often talked about there is in Canada where we can go into and started optimizing the overall developments around the land moving rigs around just to try to retain the land position. And we'll have Jeff Wohahn add to that.

Jeff Wojahn - Executive Vice-President and President, USA Region and Designated President of the USA Division of GasCo

Analyst

Sure, good morning Mark. In regards to Haynesville off budget questions I was getting them down between your asking them, but realty rates origin to play were in the 15-20% range more recently more other transactions have been conducted in the 25% realty range. Overall we are I would say our land would be in the 20% range. And they also point out that the announcement of our Indigo minerals transaction earlier this year 89,000 mineral acres. We own fifteen so we don't pay royalties. That's something that I learned in selling [indiscernible] is a good thing. And not only is it a good thing from a royalty rate point of view, but also from operational point of view. Because we own these minerals in those lands, we don't have any expiries. And so majority of the focus of our acquisitions of program this year will to acquire lands that will be their feed mineral, title lands with no royalties and no expiries or held by production land. So that is one way that we're going to manage our land tenure challenges looking forward.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thanks. Probably rate issue? Randy Eresman - President and Chief Executive Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of GasCo: It's too early to understand recovery rates but that's something we're actively working on right now.

Operator

Operator

And for our next question we'll go to Gordon G. with RBC Capital.

Gordon G - RBC Capital

Analyst

Good morning guys. Could you give us some color on your operating costs in Q3, they dropped quite dramatically on a quarter or quarter basis. Is it partly a function of the currency change. And I guess the second question is I noticed that you didn't have any current taxes in the U.S for Q3 in it and is that just a timing thing again ?

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thanks, Gordon, I think that we'll simply answer on the Q3 operating cost since it's got to do with a mark-to-market changes on our long term examples. But sure to look to share price to the exchange and Brian is going to elaborate on that. Brian Ferguson - Executive Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of Cenovus: Hi, Gordon, of you look at the Q3 by itself, there was essentially a $0.24, 12000 cubic feet equivalent reduction in our operating cost as the result of the drop in the share price during the quarter. Let's be specific in fact on the premium there. The FX had a relatively minor in the quarter... the big drop in the Canadian dollars in this quarter, the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

[Operators instruction]. Our next question from David Bentley with AllNovaScotia.com

David Bentley - AllNovaScotia.com

Analyst · AllNovaScotia.com

Hello, this one would be for Gerry probably if he is there. I was just wondering if we could have a little bit of an update on what's happening on the local benefits front on the Deep Panuke project. s you are aware of course the accommodation block which was expected to be built here, went off shore and I understand there are discussions with the provincial government to replace that and I'm just wondering where they are and what sort of projects you might be looking at and when we might be hearing the result of those discussions? Gerry Protti - Executive Vice-President, Corporate Relations, and President, Offshore & International Division and Designated Executive Advisor to Cenovus: Hi David, Gerry here. Yes we are in discussions with the province and as you know and for others on the line you can kind have the commitment to Nova Scotia to spend at least 1.35 million hours in the development phase of the project. And we certainly are going to live up to that commitment and I'll just note that one of the recent developments was an announcement last week by the Premiere and Laurentian Energy for a contract to built go two rigs, neighbor's rigs in Nova Scotia which will contribute, I believe something in the order of about 150,000 hours of employment. So that would form a portion of it and taking all together we don't anticipate any difficulty in meeting that commitment underway. See you, David.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Richard Wyman with Canaccord Adams.

Richard Wyman - Canaccord Adams

Analyst · Canaccord Adams.

Good morning everyone, just have a couple of questions here. First of all can you offer a bit more color on the economics reduced to an MCF equivalent for the basis differentials... the hedging you've done between US Rockies and reference prices at Henry Hub. Secondly on the Haynesville can you comment on any bottlenecks or constraints from off taking processing and infrastructure point of view that might impact the pace of development there. And a similar kind of question for Horn River with some evidence of the local infrastructure is going to be tapped out in predictable future. What alternatives you are looking at for moving what could be sizable volume of gas into North America or international markets and with that CO2 [ph] management of that gas? Randy Eresman - President and Chief Executive Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of GasCo: Alright, Richard that's a lot of questions. The first one with regard to base of hedging positions that we have in place. I think it would be something better if we just talked to you on a one on basis to give you a... just give a lot of detail there. And regarding the transportation and situation in processing in U.S. and plain operations I will turn over to Jeff and Mike.

Jeff Wojahn - Executive Vice-President and President, USA Region and Designated President of the USA Division of GasCo

Analyst · Canaccord Adams.

Good morning Richard I will talk about the Haynesville. I will take about the first. First of all I mean when you look across North America and you think about an area where you would like to find large resource lake the Haynesville play is much the best spot. I mean you can find something right at Henry Hub but you are close. So overall there is commencement of capacity, locally within Haynesville area current production is finalized being backed out to the Cartage [ph] hub area where these several hundred million cubic feet a day of current capacity and mostly operators are moving in that direction. Meets the long term, most of the Haynesville gas is thought bout to be moving towards Perigo [ph] which is about a 150 miles away hub that has multiple DCS takeway capacity. So, I anticipate there will industry solutions in mid stream and downstream solution that industry will be working together on in the upcoming months.

Michael M. Graham - Executive Vice-President and President, Canadian Foothills Division and Designated President of the Canadian Division of GasCo

Analyst · Canaccord Adams.

Yes, hi Richard, Mike, here again. We're have right today where there is about 400 million a day of capacity on the Texas system at Ford Nelson [ph]. As you know Richard that the Texas system [ph] is well set up to handle CO2 and what not, it has done a lot of that in the past. So, over the next couple of years we are in really good shape there with the 400 million a day of capacity. Looking longer term in the Horn River, TransCanada has expressed some interest coming right into Northeast PC, if they can go under ND jurisdiction so and they are having an open season and we are looking to participate. So we do have to get gap eventually back into the western mainline of TransCanada, but not for a year or two outcome anyway. Randy Eresman - President and Chief Executive Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of GasCo: Other than that we really don't have any significant strengths on transportation in the company. And we are very well positioned with respect to our basic hedges.

Operator

Operator

And our next question from Andrew Potter with UBS Securities.

Andew Potter - UBS Securities

Analyst · UBS Securities.

Hi guys, just a question on Horn River. As you move out to a bigger program next year and you think 40 wells, where would you expect to see cost come down to, I mean is that big enough scale to get a sense of kind of what commercial scale cost will be?

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst · UBS Securities.

Yes, that Andrew and that a great questions. We have this year, really improved in gas kind of across the big chunk of our land in the Horn River and next year we going to really work on the cost. If you look at the money which is similar debt and we draw similar on the horizontals, we think we can get a horizontal well probably down in that above that $6 million range. So it yet to be seen honestly our cost have run over, they are higher than but like Randy said when we put a gas factory together what we plan to do next year and maybe drill as many as 20 wells of a single pads. We do believe that our cost like in all of our resource play will come down dramatically. So, at the end of the day we think our ease lies on these grounds at least on the last well it's probably in the 7 BCF range and hopefully our cost can get down in that 6 or $7 million range on program basis which would be a very attractive finding in around that play. And don't forget as well up in the Horn River, we are working with the BC Crown here and they're looking at the net royalty of about 2% initially up front. So it makes our economics very attractive with that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from [indiscernible] with UBS Global.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you very much, a couple of questions. One if you could just talk about your share repurchase program and the rationale for suspending it temporarily? Brian Ferguson - Executive Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of Cenovus: Okay, when we announce our split in May this year, we wanted to ensure that balance sheet at the time which was approximately year end was in the best shape possible. And so we were targeting a year end debt level of about $10 billion and we thought that was appropriate when we expected two companies. So we have got it to spend since that time. As we start going forward-looking at 2009 our share repurchase program we'll be consider it amongst all other uses for capital. That decision would be made in December of this year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay thanks. Another question just regarding acquisitions in this environment and whether you are seeing opportunities and also whether an acquisition might be better undertaken as a large corporate entity and is that part of the driver of staying as one unit? Brian Ferguson - Executive Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of Cenovus: Yes this, you know these a huge amount of market volatility that we have today. You know certainly could present the potential for acquisitions opportunities but at this early, early stage I think it's more prudent for companies to start trying to understand all of the implications before asking too quickly.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay thanks and if I could just ask one final question. I know that you are coming up with your budget in December. But do you have any thoughts at this point whether the reduction or an increase or stable capital program is a more likely scenario for you? Randy Eresman - President and Chief Executive Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of GasCo: We have as Brian listed a very, very good hedging program in place is going to have a significant model protection of our cash flow for the next year. But the unhedged amount is variable and I guess our overall anticipation is that cash flows will be somewhat reduced going into 2009. Given the way we have been managing to a maximum of 90% of our cash flow on our capital program. That in self will causes this to choke back a bid of the amount that we spent on a core capital. Rest of our details we nearly have to do the analysis and that's what we're going to focus on that over the course of the next two months trying to understand the implications of inflation or potentially deflation environment which may be caused by a reduction in overall activity levels. What's going to happen on a world scale with respect to commodities and this may be a great opportunity to increase the growing program. It's just really so early to be fixing a plan or we're just at a point where we're reacting to so many changes. So given in the next couple of months I think its going to be a great opportunity for us to reflect on what the right approach is should be in this environment.

Operator

Operator

At this time we would like to invite our listeners from the media to ask question and [Operator Instructions]. And I'll pause for just a moment. Our first question comes from Pat Roche with Daily Oil Bulletin.

Patrick Roche - Daily Oil Bulletin

Analyst

Yes hi. Just had one question, your total cash flow guidance is reduced to $10 billion to $10.4 billion range, what was that reduced from, what was it originally? It had been increased at the second quarter of this year while we were starting to higher natural gas prices and the increase at that time moved up to between $10 million and $11 million. So really the range has also been narrowed to reflect only one last quarter, one quarter left of the year.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We have no further questions at this time. Randy Eresman - President and Chief Executive Officer and Designated President & Chief Executive Officer of GasCo: Great, thanks very much everyone for joining us today. And this conference call is now concluded.

Operator

Operator

Once again that does conclude our conference call for today. We thank you for your participation, have a great day. .