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Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 30, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation Fiscal 2019 Second Quarter Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the presentation. [Operator Instructions] And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Pat Davidson, Senior VP of Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Pat Davidson

Analyst

Good morning and thanks for joining us. Earlier today we published our second quarter 2019 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at oshkoshcorporation.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months. Please refer now to slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks that follow including answers to your questions contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. All references on this call to a quarter or a year are to our fiscal quarter or fiscal year unless stated otherwise. Our presenters today include Wilson Jones, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Sagehorn, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please turn to slide 3 and I'll turn it over to you Wilson.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Thanks, Pat. Good morning, everyone. We're pleased to announce strong second quarter results with revenue, operating income and earnings per share all up over the prior year. This is the great way to follow up our strong first quarter as we move into the second half of the fiscal year. This quarter is a great example of why Oshkosh is a different integrated global industrial. Like many companies, we are dealing with challenges related to uncertain trade policies and tariffs, labor challenges, weather and other macro factors that impact each of our segments differently. Yet we were able to deliver 18% earnings per share growth over the prior year quarter. The diversity of our end markets, along with our integrated operations and supply chain, allowed us to overcome challenges we faced in parts of our company and still delivered strong results. As a result of our continued strong execution, healthy backlogs and solid outlook for our markets, we are raising our expectations for adjusted earnings per share for 2019 to a range of $7.50 to $7.80. Dave will discuss our updated 2019 expectations in more detail. Before I talk about each of our segments, I wanted to mention that we are looking forward to having John Pfeifer join our team this week as our Chief Operating Officer. Many of you know John and he brings strong operations experience with him and will be a key leader as we continue to strengthen our people-first culture and execute our MOVE Strategy. Please turn to slide 4 to begin the discussion for each of our business segments. I'll start off as I typically do with the Access Equipment segment. Our Access Equipment team delivered a strong quarter with sales up in all regions, notably the largest percentage sales increase was in the Pac…

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Thanks, Wilson, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 8. We're pleased to announce another quarter of strong results. Consolidated net sales for the second quarter were $1.99 billion, a 5.5% increase over the prior year. Sales were up in all segments except Commercial, reflecting the benefits of our diverse business portfolio. Commercial segment sales were negatively affected by the unexpected weather impact on production and to a lesser extent the third-party chassis availability constraint. The new revenue recognition standard positively impacted sales by $15 million compared to the prior year quarter. And we've included an updated rev rec standard chart on slide 9 of the presentation. Consolidated operating income for the second quarter was $175.6 million or 8.8% of sales compared to an adjusted operating income of $163.4 million or 8.7% of sales in the prior year. A 100 basis point improvement in Access Equipment adjusted operating income margin drove the slightly higher consolidated operating income margin compared to the prior year. In addition to the impact of higher sales volume, Access Equipment results benefited compared to the prior year from significantly improved operating efficiencies. The Access Equipment team has made great progress stabilizing production in their supply base and the results are evident in the second quarter performance. Price cost was also favorable in the quarter. We saw more non-steel cost escalation this quarter as expected, but that escalation was offset by a price increase that was effective January 1. Higher Defense segment operating income was driven by the impact of the new rev rec standard and higher sales volumes, partially offset by an adverse product mix. The new rev rec standard favorably impacted operating income by $7.4 million. Defense segment results were stronger than we previously expected due to the receipt of orders for FHTVs in…

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Thanks, Dave. Another strong quarter and we are going to continue working hard and smart to drive strong full year results for 2019. I'm proud of our team and confident that we will continue to execute on our strategic priorities to drive value for all stakeholders. I'll turn it back over to Pat to get the Q&A started.

Pat Davidson

Analyst

Thanks, Wilson. I’d like to remind everybody please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up. After the follow-up, we ask that you get back in queue if you’d like to ask additional questions. Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period of this call.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is up from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

Steve Volkmann

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, guys.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Hi, Steve.

Steve Volkmann

Analyst

I'm wondering a couple of things, but Dave, can we talk a little bit about just the cadence of the Defense margins. Obviously the implied second half is quite a bit lower. And I'm just trying to understand, does that mean that without any orders the underlying business is sort of running at mid-single digits and then you get to higher single digits when you get another order, or is higher single digits sort of the core run rate that you'd encourage us to think about going forward?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Yeah. So I would – what I would think there is 605 is actually unfortunately I think a better indicator of how we think about things. And if you look on a 605 basis it's pretty consistent across the board in that high single-digit range. And as we made a comment on the prepared remarks Steve that that's how we would encourage you guys to think about it. It gets lumpy, due to the timing of the orders and we talked about it last quarter and we talked about it again this quarter. But on an overall basis, a high single digits is the appropriate way to think about it. You do get a little seasonality in terms of spend on shows and vehicle trials that are a little heavier during the summer period. But other than that I think it's – again, if you go back to the 605 basis it's pretty consistent at the high single-digit level.

Steve Volkmann

Analyst

All right. Okay. Thank you. And then just a quick follow-up on the free cash flow you raised your guidance for the business but the free cash flow is kind of still unchanged. What are the offsets there?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

One you've got a little bit higher CapEx that we called out guidance so that's about $10 million of it. The rest is really just an assumption around the timing of the raise and how it's going to flow through from a working capital standpoint transition from sales to receivables, and ultimately into cash. As the quarter and the rest – I'm sorry, not the quarter, the second half plays out we'll see what the timing actual timing of those sales are and how they are converting into cash, but nothing other than I would say a timing assumption.

Steve Volkmann

Analyst

Great. I appreciate it.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Thank you, Steve.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is up from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

Ann Duignan

Analyst

Good morning.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Hi, Ann.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Hi, Ann.

Ann Duignan

Analyst

Maybe you could walk us through in a bit more detail on your operating margin guidance for access please the raise there. You mentioned a few things, but if you could just give us a bit more color I'd appreciate it.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Yeah. Ann, the – three main things there so we – and we talked about them on the prepared remarks volume, mix and cost profile. Volume I think is pretty self-explanatory. We do expect a little heavier mix with the sales rise to aerial work platforms. And as you know that's a little richer margin from – than telehandler so that's going to be a little bit of a heavier benefit there. And then on the cost profile, well that's really I would say a combination of a number of things. It's not just material, we're talking labor overhead with the improved efficiencies that we've seen in the business. The…

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Less interruptions from our suppliers.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Exactly that has a pretty meaningful impact as well. So when I think about the three drivers none really stands out as being over-weighted versus the other three.

Ann Duignan

Analyst

But I think last quarter you have called out a negative mix for the year towards telehandler, is that correct? And what changed do you think during the quarter?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

I think it's still going to be the case on a full year basis Ann, I think just incrementally versus what we saw last year with the raise in the sales outlook for the remainder of the year. We think that component is going to be more heavily weighted to the aerial work platforms.

Ann Duignan

Analyst

Okay. And just to clarify the lower cost is more labor overhead not necessarily lower steel prices beginning to show up?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

We are incorporating in a little bit of steel favorability versus what we thought last quarter as we have continued to see sheet steel moderate a little bit, but that's more so a fourth quarter play continues to remain stubbornly high. I looked last week and it's still up 40-some percent over where it was when we began our fiscal 2018. So we still have a significant steel component there, but we are from the sheet side of the house baking in a little bit of a moderation there late in the year.

Ann Duignan

Analyst

Okay. And so all things being equal that should be a favorable impact for fiscal 2020?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

If this continues for the remainder of this fiscal year yes that should be a benefit for us in fiscal 2020.

Ann Duignan

Analyst

Okay. I'll leave it there in the interest of time. Thank you.

Ann Duignan

Analyst

Thanks, Ann.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is up from the line of Mig Dobre with Robert W. Baird.

Mig Dobre

Analyst

Thank you and good morning, guys. I want to go back to follow-up on that telehandler comment. If you can remind us, what some of the drivers of telehandler demand as far as you can tell have been year-to-date? And obviously, aerials have not grown as much how are you thinking about this business based on the visibility that you currently have?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Well I'll start with the telehandler question Mig. If you recall this time last year, we had consolidated our telehandler lines at a time where the market jumped, jumped quicker than we thought. So we were behind the curse so to speak in getting telehandlers produced and delivered to our customers. I think at the same time, we were assimilating around 600 new people on our lines which caused some major inefficiencies and so we got behind a little bit on telehandlers. And what you're seeing now the first half of this year, we have our cadence back, our efficiencies are there, our supply chain disruptions are well in hand. And now we're starting to catch up a little bit. I think you know the industry well. We've always been the more preferred telehandlers in the marketplace. And what we're doing now is really catching up some of the I believe lost share that we had last fall.

Mig Dobre

Analyst

Excellent. And on aerials?

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Well, I think, Dave, just mentioned in working closely with our customers what the communications has been up to this point is a little heavier aerial second half than first half. I think the outlook what you're seeing in the market today Mig is a little bit more normal behavior. Again I hate to go back to it but we -- I think it's important that we all understand this time last year there was a lot of stress and anxiety in the marketplace. We were talking surcharges, which was pricing increases. We were taking delivery issues, we were talking all the supplier issues. A lot of angst and anxiety. That's gone now that's all behind us. And so you're seeing a more stable market where we can get back in our cadence and deliver with pretty good lead times. And so the angst of pre-ordering and making sure that they had deliveries I think we the JLG team has done a nice job of really working with the customers on having those -- that equipment available on timely delivery basis.

Mig Dobre

Analyst

Excellent. And then my follow-up on Fire, really impressive orders this quarter. Maybe a little bit more color as to sort of what's driving that? I gather your comment on state and local being in better shape. What are you seeing on the ARFF side? And then also can you give us some perspective on international? You sounded a little bit better about that portion of your business?

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Sure the Fire & Emergency really had a record quarter for orders. A lot of good work has gone into that. Obviously good team executing well really selling innovations that are proprietary to them. I think that's helping them gain new customers and conquest accounts, so that was part of the order intake. That's our normal price increase, so there was part of it related to that. And if you look back in Q1, they were down a little bit on orders. So there was some catch up in Q2 there. So all in all just a well executed quarter from an order standpoint. And to our point the market we don't see it growing significantly, but it's at a good place in a place where again with their innovation we're going to continue to do well. The question about ARFF, airport rescue firefighting, we still see a lot of activity internationally with our ARFF trucks. There's a lot of new airports being built. We have the normal domestic opportunities. Business is in a good place and certainly poised to continue. We've got some innovations that we're going to be talking about with our airport rescue firefighting. I think again will help them further themselves in the market. And then you wanted to talk a little bit about international. The comment we made was about some bottlenecks that we had through some administrative issues getting in some trucks into China. And we believe all those roadblocks have been cleared and so it's roughly about $40 million of shipments that we expect to get delivered over the next two quarters. So this all should complete by the year-end. And just from an international standpoint for Pierce and for the ARFF truck lots of opportunities with our technology. The higher technology type trucks are having place in places around the globe, again because we do lead in technology and I think that's going to bode well for Pierce and the ARFF truck in the future.

Mig Dobre

Analyst

That's great. Just to clarify Wilson the $40 million to China are those additional orders to come? Or is this stuff in the backlog that now you're going to be able to ship?

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Yes, they're in the backlog they're built and they're working through these administrative bottlenecks. And like I said, we have cleared majority of those and believe those will be delivered over the next two quarters.

Mig Dobre

Analyst

Great, very helpful. Thank you.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Thanks, Mig.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

Jamie Cook

Analyst

Hi, good morning. I guess a couple of questions. One, some other industrial companies that have reported so far noted a weak start to the year, and then trends improving in March and April. And I'm just wondering if you're seeing that in any of your businesses in particular with some of the weather issues that people had? And then my second question, understanding the Commercial segment had some issues in the quarter that were outside of your control, but I'm just trying to think about how we think about those margins longer term and the ability to get to the targeted range just given where you are in the simplification efforts as well as hiring a new COO I'm wondering if 2020 could be more of the breakout year for Commercial? Thank you.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Okay, Jamie I'll jump in on your question on weak start, and then I'll probably toss the Commercial margins to Dave. And then I'll circle back with you on the COO comment. From a weak start standpoint, we did see a little bit of that and really it was in those heavy weather areas. I think it affected both shipments and some of the orders. I wouldn't say it was anything significant for us, but there are some pockets where we had expected some orders, the shipment availability had to change again because of those inclement weather but I wouldn't say it was anything significant for us in the quarter. Dave you want to jump in on the Commercial part?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Sure. So, Jamie as it relates to the weather impact on the Commercial segment, we're looking at that really as a one-time compartmentalized event. I know the Commercial team is energized about bouncing back in fiscal 2020. So we do expect that that will occur. In terms of the longer term outlook for simplification, they were on a good I think trend in terms of making progress there. If you compare them to Fire & Emergency, it look Fire & Emergency a number of years to really get going on that. And in regards to whether that's the -- whether 2020s is the breakout year we're just getting into our planning for fiscal 2020. We'll continue through that through rest of the summer really. I know they have high aspirations for advancing that business. They've seen what can be done with simplification. I think they have lofty goals. But in terms of the cadence of that, we'll work on what that means for 2020 over the coming months.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

And then on the COO question, Jamie just I know there’s been a few questions that Pat has fielded over that. If you go back to when I was promoted to the CEO role, I didn't replace myself. I wanted to spend that time to get to know the rest of the team in a good way and getting that alignment before we put that position in. And then when you take a step back and you look at where we are we've got a really good performing team here. And when you think about today, the speed of change is just going to get faster. And with our focus on the mega trends when you think about electrification, autonomy, Internet of Things, shared economy it's always good when you can add another really good brain I'll call it to the table. And that's what we've done here, John Pfeifer has done a lot of work around the mega trends. He’s been very successful in his previous roles, and so that's really about adding another really good strategic team member to a really good performing team. And that's basically the move we're making there. And it -- I think it will help us again divide and concur some things more that we really need to get after.

Jamie Cook

Analyst

Okay, thank you. I’ll get back in queue.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Thanks, Jamie.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is up from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

Jerry Revich

Analyst

Yes, hi, good morning, everyone, and nice quarter. I'm wondering if you could talk about the aerial work platform product line specifically, so sales were down 5% year-over-year this quarter. Dave, can you just talk about how you expect the cadence of production and deliveries to shape out over the course of the year? You mentioned lead times are still pretty attractive, but it sounds like the mix shift that you spoke about shifting to telehandlers is also a function of what looks like weaker demand in aerial. So can you just address that?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Yeah, sure Jerry. Just to confirm, are you asking specifically about the aerial work platforms within the Access Equipment segment or are you talking about the segment overall?

Jerry Revich

Analyst

The product line, yeah, so the aerial work platform product line within the segment?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Yes, we do expect to see a healthier mix of aerial work platforms in the second half of the year as we said. And again I'll go back a little bit to what Wilson was talking about with telehandlers. Some of it relates to the strength you're seeing there year-over-year is what we were going through last year. Telehandler market is strong this year, but again, we were in the process of transitioning. The team has really responded to that well and executed well on that and that's a big part of what you're seeing with telehandlers. As it relates to the aerial work platforms, it's -- we're still hearing very positive things from our customers out there. I think they're being disciplined in terms of as they're looking at their fleets. But with the recent intake or information that we've heard from them in taking the topline up, we do expect that we're going to see that a little healthier second half of the year from an aerial work platforms standpoint.

Jerry Revich

Analyst

And Dave is that a comment on a year-over-year basis? So, you're expecting year-over-year growth in the aerial work platform product line in the back half of the year? Or was that a sequential comment which would be in line with normal seasonality?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Well, it's more compared to what we saw in the first half and it's not necessarily normal seasonality-driven. It's -- if you look at the percentage of sales in the second half that are aerial work platforms versus the percentage of sales in the first half that were aerial work platforms, we're saying it's going to be a little bit of a -- we believe a little healthier mix. So, it kind of takes the seasonality out of it.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Jerry it's a move a little more towards the normal kind of two-thirds, one-third break aerials versus telehandlers. It's been richer towards telehandlers in the last couple of quarters. So, Dave is talking about is kind of getting more towards that normal ratio.

Jerry Revich

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for the color. And in Pierce, you folks have performed extremely well. I'm wondering if you could talk about where your market share stands today and what's the incremental opportunity for you folks from here? Obviously you're executing well in what's a tougher market for some.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Well, Jerry, we want to be careful in tallying market share that kind of ebbs and flows in different quarters based on -- there may be a big order and keeping in mind that that's not a really large market in terms of units, but we're pleased with the progress. When we look at growing all of our companies, we really think about what are the best market segments that we can grow in where we can create the most value for the company. And that's what Pierce is doing. And they're focused on the segments where they can add that value that technology that our firefighters are looking for and they're that's how they've been growing some of the conquest accounts is adding that. The Fotokite that they introduced at FDIC the first situational awareness program that's in the fire service has been well received. And again another thing that we're doing in all of our companies is really looking at the ecosystem and how we can better support our customers with more than just a truck. So, they're on a good path. I'll stay away from the specific market share numbers, but you can see the order quarter they had and very healthy orders and again good work was done by their distribution channel which is the best distribution channel in the industry for the quarter.

Jerry Revich

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is up from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

Steven Fisher

Analyst

Thanks, good morning.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Steven.

Steven Fisher

Analyst

You guys mentioned you expect a return to a more normal pattern of orders in access compared to some of the -- I guess accelerated ordering last year which is causing some of the decline in the order rate. So, I guess how should we think about what that means for the year-over-year orders in the balance here in the access segment?

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Well, if you look back before 2018, the normal order pattern was around 55% to 58% in the first half and the remainder in the second half. So, 45% or so -- that was the normal cadence back in I'd say 2013, 2014, 2015 was a little different because we had the oil and gas got back to that it's 2016, 2017, and 2018 really an outlier where you had over 60% in the first half. So, that's what we're talking about. It appears that our customers are feeling more confident in our delivery times in our capabilities with the cadence we have now from an efficiency standpoint with the lack of supplier disruptions it's just a better place, less anxiety. And we're working closely with them on forecasting and looking into where they can get units and plan around all that. And so, it's allowed us to really increase our relationships with our customers. And again, it's working well now and the anxiety, majority of it, without the surcharge conversations, it's out of the equation now. So it's in a good spot. A normal spot is much better than that anxious spot that we were in last year.

Steven Fisher

Analyst

So do you think that means, sort of, moderating declines in orders in the second half? Or do you think they could actually be up?

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Well, I mean, we've forecasted where we think they're going to be. And again, that's from our customers and their hundreds of locations around the U.S. and what they're rolling up from their forecast standpoint. What we'll know in the next three months is how well the construction season is going. And when that group is robust and that leads into the high utilization rates on the aerials, which leads to the debate about more replacement needed. So I think the next three months will really help us understand how big it can be, especially going into 2020. I know that's a big question and one we're anxious to start working on it and getting better understanding of. But today, if you look at our -- whatever our forecast is, that's coming straight from our customer base and what they plan on ordering over the next four to five months.

Steven Fisher

Analyst

Got it. And just quickly on Defense, just curious how quickly you think that margin could ramp back up to double-digit levels? Do you need to see some of those international orders in there or just the U.S. orders drive that? And is that thinking of second half of 2020 when you get back to those, the double-digit margins?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Steven, it's really a function more so of, what I would say, mix and historically we've done well internationally. So that certainly does play a component of that. We're -- the teams are continuing to work on the execution of the legacy programs domestically as well. There are opportunities there. But we're looking at a number of things and they're always trying to drive better margins in the segment. So we'll provide guidance on 2020 later this fiscal year.

Steven Fisher

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Chad Dillard with Deutsche Bank.

Chad Dillard

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Good morning, Chad.

Chad Dillard

Analyst

So I was hoping you could give a little more color on how access customers are phasing their order deliveries? I guess what I'm trying to understand is, how much of the excess backlog you have right now will be delivered in 2019 versus 2020 compared to the same time last year?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Chad I don't have the numbers broken out by quarter in front of me, but I would say the majority of the backlog that we currently have or had at the end of the March is for sales in -- yet, in this fiscal year, fiscal 2019. I know we did have some backlog in March already for fiscal 2020. I believe it was a little bit lower year-over-year than where it was last year at the end of March, but it didn't stick out as being meaningfully different.

Chad Dillard

Analyst

Got it. And then, just switching over to Defense. So if the JLTV program cuts play out in line with kind of what the Presidential budget requests are, how should we think about the unit cost impact of this decision, just given that you might have to spend a little more development costs across fewer units? Is there any way to kind of help us with that potential sensitivity?

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Well, let me just clarify a few things here Chad. And the Army has not reduced its acquisition objective, it's still 49,000 units. Actually the Marine Corp has raised their objective from 5,500 to 9,000. So let's put that in place and then if you look at what's happened is, they're mostly pushing some deliveries to the right in the FY 2020 budget. Keep in mind; we received an order for 6,100 JLTVs in November of 2018, which takes our JLTV backlog out to fiscal year 2021. So then if you put the other data point the FYDP, they're still close to 25,000 JLTVs in that FYDP through FY 2023. So there's a little bit of misunderstanding that this was a significant move and really in terms of units it's not very significant. The units remain in place, there's some that are flattening out there in 2021 but nothing imminent. So I know when we hear some of this information coming out of Washington D.C. we tend to grab it and so there's always a little bit better story than what you dig in and understand where we are and what the facts are. So I think from our perspective good program of record we're starting to fill the units. We're hearing good customer feedback. They are adding some modifications, but at this time that's really the only cost consideration going forward is that the three mods that they're making and pricing those into the new basically the new JLTV.

Chad Dillard

Analyst

Got it. Thank you. That's helpful.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Thanks, Chad.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is up from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

Ross Gilardi

Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Hey, Ross.

Ross Gilardi

Analyst

I know there have been a lot questions on access, but I just want to understand a little bit better. I think your full year revenue guide implies that the second half is flat to down. And I'm just trying to reconcile that with the positive commentary coming out of the rental market the metrics and the market being reasonably tight? And then just along with that what do you think we are in the Access Equipment cycle right now?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

So I'll start Ross, so you're right in terms of what it implies but I'll go back to what Wilson said a few minutes ago about we'll see where the next few months ago. Typically, this is a time of year as we go through the May, June, July time period where the rental companies if they're going to free up anymore of the incremental CapEx that's when we would expect to see it. I think we would acknowledge that based on the commentary could there be upside to these numbers? There could be. But I think we also want to just get through the next few months to see how everything plays out. And –

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Yeah. And on the cycle Ross, we know us we're not big about coloring the next year, but I would tell you our long-term view hasn't changed. This is a good market and one that we believe is going to continue to grow. There maybe some ebbs and flows to it, but if you just look at the fundamentals non-res construction growing ISH forecast, The Dodge Momentum Index, the ABC Construction backlog. And then you plug-in what our customers are saying and our customer's – I mentioned it earlier on the call some of them have over thousand locations around North America. So I think they've got a pretty good pulse of what's going on. We like how things are going currently in Europe and then we noted that Asia Pacific is really adopting well our aerial work platforms. So we really like this business going forward. I think to call on the economy next year, we'll wait and hear more on that as we go here, but there's a lot to like here. And I talked to some people the other day and they were saying well it's got to slow down some in 2020. And actually – well, I'm not willing to agree with you yet, but if it does slow down a little bit look at where we are. I mean, this is a good place this market has never been where it is today. So if it does slow a little bit again, we're not saying it's going to, but if it did, it's still not a bad place to hang out. And then, if it grows going again. So that's kind of where we are in the cycle.

Ross Gilardi

Analyst

All right. And then just to one to ask on Defense. I couldn't tell from your comments if you were trying to temper expectations on the timing for Full Rate Production over the summer or if you feel like that's more likely to be pushed out. And then I think when you initially laid out the time line of JLT deliveries a couple of years ago the number was something like 3000 deliveries in 2019 going up to like 4,500 deliveries in 2020. Can you give us any sense as to whether or not those are still the right ballpark numbers or is the 2020 number likely to come in lower?

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Yes, Ross the Full Rate Production we're optimistic about that and we believe that's going to happen in the next few months. Really what delayed it was the modifications that our customer decided to add, which are good mods. But as I mentioned too the fielding is going really well. We're getting these out with the Marines and with the Army and the feedback has been very positive. So it's – we're optimistic about the Full Rate Production here in the next few months. In terms of JLT deliveries I would say that, you're still on track the 3,000 to 4,500. What maybe adjusted a little bit in 2021 is it may stay at 4,500. Again there's still some discussions going on will that be 4,500 or 5,000. But that's where we are today on the delivery front.

Ross Gilardi

Analyst

Got it. Thanks, Wilson.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question is up from the line of Seth Weber with RBC.

Seth Weber

Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Hey, good morning.

Seth Weber

Analyst

First question, I guess for Dave, the share buyback you kept it $350 million for this year. I mean, you're going to end the year pretty close to net debt neutral. Can you just talk about why you're not getting more aggressive with the buyback here? Are you saving some powder for acquisitions? Or is it just -- more just kind a mechanics you're waiting for the board meeting or something? Thanks.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Yes. So we put the $350 million target out there at the beginning of the year when we were projecting free cash flow of $450 million. At this time, we're sticking with that $450 million free cash flow number. So the way we looked at it is it's still in alignment with where we were as we entered the year. We'll certainly take a look at that as we develop our plans for fiscal 2020 later this summer. But at this time, I would still expect that $350 million is the target number for us for this year.

Seth Weber

Analyst

Would you say that you're increasing your -- the time that you're spending on M&A or that's not accurate?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

No, this is -- I mean, it's not meant to be a statement as to how we are thinking about our overall capital allocation strategy. We're continuing to execute on that strategy as we always have. We talk about being opportunistic, whether it's returning cash to shareholders, whether it's looking at external opportunities. So I'd say, it's -- we're just kind of running the same as we always have and there is no secret messages hidden within that.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

No, board meetings we're waiting on Seth.

Seth Weber

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. And then maybe just – sorry, going back to the -- some of your comments about the non-U.S. access markets, sound pretty good frankly. So I guess, can you give us any color on what you're seeing in -- any better color on what you're seeing in Europe? And is there anything that we should be cognizant of as far as margins by region U.S. versus international? Thanks.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

I'll give you a little color on the markets, and I'll let Dave talk about the margins. When we say Europe is stable, it is stable, but we're always invoice forecasting large growth opportunities in Europe. I think we have pockets of opportunity with new customers, new products. So we like the market, it's been a foundational market for us over the years, and we'll continue to focus on that. Where we have really big opportunities, Seth, is Asia-Pacific. And where China, the business has been doubling basically year-over-year over the last few years and adoption curve is in full swing. It reminds me back to about 15 years ago, when escalators really got it going and hit the adoption curve with escalators and had a really nice run there for several years and that's what it's building up to now in China. And as we do well in China, it's opening up other opportunities in that region. And so we'll be pursuing those. Latin America was up, but again, it's coming up from a very small base, and we're not banking on a ton of growth in Latin America, but to increase a little bit year-over-year is a good step, and we'll continue to focus on those markets too.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

And then Seth.

Seth Weber

Analyst

Okay. And…

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Oh, I'm sorry, go ahead.

Seth Weber

Analyst

Yes, and I was just going to Dave, is there anything we should be thinking about as far as margin profile by region if it's just U.S. versus some of these other markets? Thanks.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Not significantly. I mean, obviously, we're able to leverage a little bit more of the infrastructure in the U.S. given the scale and the percentage of sales in that segment here. But otherwise now from a pricing standpoint, not a lot of difference from region-to-region.

Seth Weber

Analyst

Super. Okay. Thank you very much guys.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Thanks Seth.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back to management for closing comments.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Thanks for joining us today everyone. We appreciate your interest in the Oshkosh Corporation, and look forward to speaking with you at a conference or on our next earnings call. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.