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Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 2, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation Fiscal 2017 Third Quarter Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Pat Davidson, Vice President of Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you. You may now begin.

Patrick N. Davidson - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Good morning and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our third quarter 2017 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at oshkoshcorporation.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months. Please refer now to slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, include statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks can include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. All references on this call to a quarter or a year are to our fiscal quarter or fiscal year, unless stated otherwise. Our presenters today include Wilson Jones, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Sagehorn, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please turn to slide 3. And I'll turn it over to you, Wilson.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Pat. Good morning, everyone. I'm happy to announce another quarter of strong results at the Oshkosh Corporation. We grew revenue in all four business segments, led by our defense segment, and we grew both adjusted operating income and adjusted operating income margin, leading to an adjusted earnings per share of $1.84 versus $1.13 in the prior year quarter. It was a successful quarter by many measures, including ending the quarter with higher backlogs in all of our non-defense segments. These positive results have been fueled by the efforts of our proud and dedicated team members across the globe. As many of you know, we are celebrating our 100th anniversary and we recently held an engaging weekend of events, including a parade with more than 60 of our products, hosted thousands of friends and family for an open house in one of our Oshkosh manufacturing facilities, and even entertained our guests with a truck rodeo. It was a great way to recognize the efforts of our team members, past and present, who have helped make Oshkosh Corporation the great company it is today. As we look at our third quarter and year-to-date results, it's clear that we're doing better than we expected at our Analyst Day last September. The macroeconomic factors that drive our markets have held up or improved versus what we expected last September. We have seen that translate into a healthy rental equipment market, which has led to demand for access equipment that's higher than we expected. We've also seen that translate into solid market conditions for a number of our other businesses. Our 15,000 team members have also maintained focus on improved operational performance, contributing to our better-than-expected results as we continue to execute the company's MOVE strategy. We saw that in our defense segment as…

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Wilson, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 8. We're pleased to report third quarter results that reflect overall strong performance during the seasonally busiest time of the year, positioning us to deliver strong earnings growth for the full year. Consolidated net sales for the quarter were $2.04 billion, up 16.6% from the third quarter of 2016. Sales were up compared to the prior year quarter in all four segments, led by a more than 80% increase in defense segment sales, driven by continued deliveries of M-ATVs to an international customer and the ongoing JLTV production ramp. Access equipment segment sales were up approximately 3%. The higher sales in this segment are a reflection of solid rental company demand that Wilson referenced. Higher fire & emergency segment sales were driven by increased fire apparatus unit volumes and improved pricing. And commercial segment sales reflect higher RCV volume after several quarters of weaker RCV sales. Consolidated adjusted operating income for the third quarter was $222.5 million or 10.9% of sales compared to $146.8 million or 8.4% of sales in the prior year quarter. Higher operating income in the defense, access equipment, and fire & emergency segments drove the higher consolidated operating income. We noted on the last earnings call that there were opportunities for better results in the access equipment segment if market conditions held through the seasonally busiest period of the year, and that's what we saw in the quarter, as evidenced by the 14.4% adjusted operating income margin in this segment. We also said there were opportunities for better results in the defense segment if they were able to efficiently execute the expected sales jump from the first half to the second half of the year. The 12.9% operating income margin in this segment is confirmation that…

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Dave. We've talked about Oshkosh being a different integrated global industrial, and I believe you're seeing that today with our strong performance and our strong outlook for 2017. We're still early in the planning process for 2018, and we'll provide our first formal financial outlook for 2018 on our next earnings call. Based on a solid base that we're building in defense for next year and the positive market conditions we're seeing in our non-defense businesses, we are confident about our prospects. That said, we now we have opportunities to capture and more work to do and we're excited to have this work and show the world what our Oshkosh family is capable of achieving. At this time, I'll turn it back over to Pat to get the Q&A started.

Patrick N. Davidson - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Wilson. I'd like to remind everyone to please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up and after the follow-up we ask that you get back in queue if you like to ask additional questions. Operator, let's please begin the question-and-answer period of this call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, guys.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Hi, Steve.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Hi, Steve.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

So, I just want to start off on your sort of outlook, your revised outlook for the year here. And I'm trying to just get a sense of how you're thinking about whether there were some timing issues that sort of helped the third quarter either from a margin or a volume perspective. And specifically it seems like some of the segments, the performance kind of drops a little more than I would have expected in the fourth quarter like access for example, the sort of the implied margin drop in access in the fourth quarter is a little bigger than I would have expected. And I'm just curious sort of how we should think about that. And then I have a quick follow-up.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Okay, Steve. We'll see if I can hit all this, but I think one thing to consider is when we provided the outlook at the end of the last quarter, we were providing an outlook for the year and really an implied for the second half. So, we didn't give specific guidance on Q3 versus Q4 other than to say we expected Q3 to be up year-over-year. So, I guess I would suggest maybe we should all take a look at this from a second half perspective versus a Q3 to Q4. But all that being said, when you look sequentially Q3 to Q4, volumes are coming down in access and that's largely what we typically see from a seasonality standpoint. Couple other things I guess I would consider there from a mix standpoint. We did have a pretty favorable mix in the third quarter driven by higher aerial work platform mix. We think that's probably going to moderate a little bit in the fourth quarter. Additionally, if you look at the production cadence, Q3 was the highest production cadence for the year. So, from an absorption standpoint, we'll probably see a little bit of a drag sequentially. And then, just what I would call just timing of discretionary spend from third quarter to fourth quarter, but not at a lot of driver from that. But those are probably the things that come to mind immediately when I think about Q3 to Q4.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. Great. And can I ask you to just speak a little bit more about pricing because I think you mentioned pricing sort of positive in fire & emergency. And then I think this is the first quarter I haven't seen you complain about pricing in access. I'm curious. I'm curious kind of what's changing here and whether that's sort of shorter term or something you think is longer term.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Yeah. And I guess we would probably not characterize it as complaining about pricing, but...

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Reporting, anyway.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

My words.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Yeah. Understood. So, third quarter year-over-year, I get a good observation especially in access. We really didn't see a lot of pricing impact one way or the other so – and that is a change from what we've seen in the last number of quarters and sequentially from Q2 to Q3 it was actually probably ticked up a little bit. Now, we realize that that is one quarter and that doesn't necessarily make a trend but we were certainly pleased to see that we didn't have to report out on pricing being a driver year-over-year this quarter.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

I'm sorry, expectation in the fourth quarter is that continues or...

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Expectation is, let's call it largely flat with what we saw in the third quarter.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

All right. Okay. Thanks.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Abdul Tambal - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Hi. This is Abdul Tambal on for J. Revich. My first question is for defense. So, you've had some success on international JLTV bookings over the past quarter. Can you just give us an update on when you'll be allowed to ramp up production for foreign sales?

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Well, actually we haven't booked any international JLTV sales yet, Abdul. There are some reports out there where the UK MOD is working through a foreign military sale and talking about up to 2,700 roughly units up from about 750 that they were talking originally. But that's not an actual order yet. That's working through the U.S. acquisition area to program office to work through officially an order we would expect. But we don't know the timing of the order at this time. We're not sure about the delivery schedules. That all will come out as we actually get the order. But we do anticipate JLTV international sales to start up later in 2019 and into 2020 when we go into a full rate production mode with our U.S. customer. Abdul Tambal - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Got it. And then just for access equipments, so can you talk about your expectation on price versus material costs in the coming quarters? Would you be able to increase pricing to offset steel cost inflation there?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Well, obviously, we got a positive view of the market or a more positive view than we had previously. We're just in our planning process for our fiscal 2018, and the details of that will come together in the coming months here. I think any OEM would strive to deliver positive pricing. I think you heard on the prior question we did see some, what I would call, positive dynamics from that standpoint in the quarter just ended. But again, that's one quarter. And so we'll have to see kind of how the market dynamics play out. But again, we're certainly have a positive view of what we saw in the quarter just ended.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Yeah. And our current forecast includes all that the steel costs that are in this fiscal year. Abdul Tambal - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Got it. Thank you.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Christie Wei - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning. This is Christie Wei on for Ann Duignan. I was wondering if you could discuss what your expectations for equipment going into oil and gas would be given the recent moderation in rig count?

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Well, Christie, when we look at oil and gas, obviously, our customers interface in that segment and what we've heard is it's not a very large part of their business. And so, if you look at it in our business on oil and gas, there's usually one or two of our machines around a rig. And so, moderating a little is not going to cost much in our categories. We watch that closely. We stay close to our customers. But it has been a slow moderation. We don't expect that to be impactful on our business today.

Christie Wei - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Thank you.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning. I wanted to come back to the earlier question on pricing in access in North America. Obviously, it's always been a competitive market. But I'm curious if you've seen maybe more of a step-up in response from any of your peers and just based on public data that's been released in the past there. So, there's a fairly significant divergence in terms of margins between JLG and some of its peers. So, I just want to get an update there in terms of what the team is seeing on that front.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Sure, Tim. And we don't comment on our peers, but you can talk to them about their business. What I would say is our access team, I would say this about all four of our segments today, are focused on pricing discipline throughout the markets for this North America, Europe, Asia Pacific. There are times where you'll see some irrational behavior but, for the most part, we've seen pretty good rational behavior over the last several quarters. It's been fairly stable from a pricing environment. We continue to work against some of the currency issues that that faces out there due to the strong dollar. But, all in all, we're pleased with the quarter. As Dave mentioned, it's one quarter and we'll have to continue to work at that to hold that price, improve it where we can. But it's something, as you know, we've been battling for the last couple of years.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Got it. And then we touched on the product mix earlier. Just curious what or if any role that the mix between – from a customer standpoint, how that played in terms of NRC versus the independents in terms of the deliveries in the quarter relative to maybe a year ago.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Yeah. I would say, compared to a year ago, Tim, we've had a little stronger mix from an IRC standpoint, not a large swing, but a little stronger than the past year.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Thanks a lot.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Shlisky with Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Michael David Shlisky - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst · Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, guys.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Hey, Mike.

Michael David Shlisky - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst · Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks for the commentary on defense for fiscal 2018. I was curious, do you have the ability to be well above $1.7 billion next year? Are there other contracts that could be won? I mean, if you just win one more like you won yesterday, you'll be – from the low end, all of a sudden at the high end of your overall guidance. Kind of curious whether you think you guys are just going to kind of scrape by or is it possible you could be at the mid to high end kind of when all is said and done? Thanks.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Mike, I'll start and let Wilson conclude if he wants. But when we made the commentary about where we think we'll be at the end of September, that does contemplate some additional orders yet between now and the end of September with FY 2017 U.S. Department of Defense funds. So we've largely got that baked in. And when you look domestically, we think we've got a pretty good viewpoint there. There probably isn't a lot of upside domestically. What will probably fill in in the gaps would be the international piece.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Yeah. And I would just put a plug in for our defense team on the international side. They're working on several opportunities. We expect to be able to talk more about those in the late fall, but some of that might could materialize into late 2018 sales and it's not just M-ATVs, it's heavies, it's FMTVs, there are some sustainment opportunities. So, we have several different opportunities working. It's not just M-ATVs, in the least.

Michael David Shlisky - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst · Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Got it. And then for my follow-up for defense. I appreciate the color on the backlog visibility. But I also wanted to ask about margin there as well. I know you've said in the past at your Analyst Day kind of high-single digits might be where it ends up. Looking at what you've seen so far on your performance this year with the team that's ramped up quite nicely here, and obviously your ongoing cost structure reductions and efficiencies, do you think you might be able to scratch 10% next year in defense? I do know it's a bit lower mix next year with less M-ATVs. But do you think you might get some good efficiencies and get a little bit above that sort of mid- to high-single-digit range for next year?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Mike, you're right in terms of we are going to see some mix impact next year with the lower M-ATV volumes. But I believe that is widely understood on the Street. At this time, I think our view is the high-single digit operating income margins that we talked about last year is still kind of how we're thinking about FY 2018. As I said earlier, it's early yet and we're still in the process of putting together the budget for fiscal 2018. But high single-digit operating income margin seems to be kind of where we're honing in on.

Michael David Shlisky - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst · Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Great. Sounds good. Thanks very much.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

David Raso - Evercore ISI Group

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. My question is trying to look out to 2018 on access. I know it's a bit early but the conversations you're having with the majors, and even some of the independents, I mean, what is the tone at this stage for their needs for next year? And if maybe you can also give us a feel where you think this year ends up versus replacement demand in 2018?

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Well, David, you know we have discussions with our customers. They're ongoing as you know, and it's a little difficult right now to talk about 2018 because they're in the middle of their calendar year, which is their fiscal year. But I can tell you the discussions that we are having, a lot of positive sentiment out there. You're seeing some consolidation, so that shows that there's some optimism in the market. We're seeing really good fundamentals. You've heard some of the public companies talk about utilization rates, use rates and now we're seeing some actual rate expansion. So, I think there's a lot of positives around it. The surveys are all in a positive mode. So we're thinking positively about 2018. But at this stage we're not sure if it's 2018 or 2019 when we'll see this inflection in replacement. But I think what we would tell you today like from this big third quarter we had, we believe it's more around equipment usage demand versus replacement demand.

David Raso - Evercore ISI Group

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. And I'm just trying to think through the early tone, is it booms, is it scissors, where is the demand? Because even within the backlog you have today, I know you mentioned the fourth quarter will skew a little more normal, teles versus aerials. But in the backlog today, what's the mix? Is it a little skewed toward booms, scissors, is it teles? Just trying to get a feel for what's in the backlog, because obviously again the margins for the fourth quarter implying down access margins year-over-year.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

David, I guess what I would go back to is what we said earlier, is we think we're going to see a little more of a shift to a more normal mix in the fourth quarter. And as it relates to 2018, I'll go back to Wilson's point. It's still early; the rental companies I think are still focused on executing for their second half of the year here. And I think it's all probably going to come together in the next three months to five months between now and the end of the calendar year. As it relates to year-over-year, we are saying that volumes are going to be down a little bit in the fourth quarter. I think when we look at mix, it might be a little weaker year-over-year, but it's to be seen. What we said on our last earnings call is if everything comes together, we could outperform, which we did in our third quarter. Depending on where the ultimate mix ends up for this quarter, is there a little bit of upside? There probably is in that segment.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

As you know, David, this is the segment that backlogs are a little shorter than our other segments. So, they're still getting sales for this quarter, and that's what Dave is relating to that there could be some upside for us depending on the mix that they bring in at the end of this quarter.

David Raso - Evercore ISI Group

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. And follow-up on the balance sheet. It appears, looking at the end of the year, I mean, your net debt to EBITDA could be down to 0.6 of EBITDA and net debt to cap mid-teens. How are you thinking of use of balance sheet cash flow going into 2018?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

We've talked in the past about the opportunistic approach to our capital allocation strategy, first and foremost, making sure that we do have a strong balance sheet. After that, making sure that we're investing in the business appropriately, which we believe we are. And then after that, it really gets into the opportunistic from the standpoint of returning cash to shareholders, looking at potential external opportunities to acquire companies. And depending on what we see, we may let the cash accumulate a little bit on the balance sheet, again, waiting for that right time to make a move. We want to make sure that if we do make a move, that it's the right move at the right time. We don't want do something just for the sake of doing it.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

And our goal has always been over the cycle to return 50% of our cash to shareholders.

David Raso - Evercore ISI Group

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

You know, I appreciate that comment about the cash kind of piling up. It's been three quarters in a row, really many quarters, actually more than that. Just basically no share repo at all, but it does sound like then just the takeaway and it's takes two to tango, but the lean here is looking for opportunistic acquisitions than share repo at the moment?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

I think we would still say opportunistic, David. I don't think we have a bias necessarily one way or the other.

David Raso - Evercore ISI Group

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, David.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. Good morning.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Hi, Nicole.

Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

So, I want to focus a little bit on the fire & emergency segment. Starting with revenues. The revenue growth is really, really strong this quarter. I'm curious what drove that, was is a pull forward of demand or what caused the big step up?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

I don't think it was a pull forward demand. I think we did have one international larger deal that comes to mind. And that's just a function of timing, right? Because those can be somewhat lumpy. But overall, continue to see strong demand domestically, continue to see improved performance overall, operationally, out of the segment there. So we'd like to pass along a couple of kudos to the fire & emergency team for that. But overall, I think it's just a reflection of what we're seeing in the market here, as well as the timing on international deliveries.

Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Understood. And then, for my follow-up, I'm looking at the margins in that segment, really impressive this quarter and it looks like you're now projecting almost 10% for the full year, which I think from the Analyst Day was kind of your more medium-term target. So, I'm curious, do you see additional medium term upside to about 10% margin level?

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Well, Nicole, I could tell you fire & emergency is going to drive – continue driving there. The last couple of years, they've had roughly 200 basis points of improvement. That will be the top picks for them to stay on, but we do expect them to continue to improve, probably not at that type of level. But what we said in our prepared remarks is that we expect them to achieve the 10% OI target sooner rather than later.

Nicole DeBlase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Thanks. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed with your question.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, guys. Congrats on the good results.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Pete.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed with your question.

Let me start. I guess, I'm curious, can you tell us how many M-ATV deliveries you actually delivered in the quarter?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Overall, it was around about a third of the – nearly a thousand that we're forecasting for the year.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Okay. And some of that thousand has slid into 2018 or had you always expected some to go into 2018?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

No. We'd always expected a smaller quantity to end up in 2018, but the thousand for this year, roughly a thousand contemplated that.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Okay. And then can you tell us the composition of your expense backlog just on a rough basis heavies, mediums, JLTVs, et cetera?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Yes, we can, but I don't have that.

Patrick N. Davidson - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

You want to follow up later, why don't we do that, Pete? We don't have the schedule in front of us.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Okay. Not a problem. And just one top level on an access on the revenue side, I'm wondering what's kind of surprised you guys the most as you come through the year, and then we've had I think a couple of guidance increases now. Has there been any kind of one or two remarkable items to call out on the strength in terms of IRCs, I think you touched on earlier being way better than expected or AWPs being way better than expected. Can you speak to that?

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Well, I don't know that we agree with those last two comments you made there, Pete. But what I will tell you, and we talked about it in our last earnings call for Q2 is that May and June are kind of the pivot months for the access business. And we said if those are stronger than our current – that there could be some upside for access for the year. And that's what we saw, the very strong May, June. So, I wouldn't say it's anything out of the ordinary other than you have a North American market that's running a little bit better than we expected.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Okay. Fair enough. Thanks, guys.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thank you.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Pete.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Hi. Good morning. Congrats on the nice quarter. I guess a few questions. One, as I think about access again, now that you really want to talk about 2018, but conceptually with the restructuring benefits coming through in 2018 with pricing being less of a headwind and end markets inflecting higher potentially, is it fair to assume you should be able to do better than the 20% or so implied incremental margin as we think about this year? And then, my second question is on the cash flow side. The cash flow is surprising on the upside in 2017, just the drivers behind that. And then, should we still expect 2018 to be a pretty big cash flow year with the international M-ATVs? Thanks.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Okay. Jamie, starting on access incremental, I guess we are going to go back to it's early. We're still in the process of developing our outlook for 2018. But that being said, the benefits of the restructuring actions that we announced earlier this year and that we expect to see next year, that in and of itself should drive some positive incremental margin to what you would typically expect from this business. And as it relates to pricing dynamics and those other things, that will all be pulled together as we prepare our formal outlook for fiscal 2018, which we'll talk about on our next earnings call. But certainly the benefits of the restructuring should be a positive for us. In regards to free cash flow, as we said on the remarks, that's largely a timing issue between 2017 and 2018. When we came into the year, we were expecting a certain payment cadence from our international customer on the large M-ATV order. What we have seen is the cadence being a little quicker than we anticipated. So, that's why you're seeing a better 2017 that will pull from 2018. But that being said, we still expect to have or would expect to have a healthy free cash flow in 2018 as well. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Okay. Thank you. That's very helpful. I'll get back in the queue.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Jamie.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Charley Brady with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please proceed with your question.

Charles Brady - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Hey, Charley.

Charles Brady - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, just I guess a quick one on commercial as we look at concrete and refuse kind of from the guidance that you've put out there, it sort of implies a pretty good downtick in Q4. And I'm just trying to square up, is that between the two big chunks, the refuse and concrete? You expecting a downtick year-over-year in both sides, or is it just really just concrete having even a larger decline than you would have expected previously?

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Charley, is the question sequentially from Q3? Is that where you're going?

Charles Brady - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please proceed with your question.

I'm looking at year-over-year, right, your guidance implies a down fourth quarter year-over-year. And I'm just trying to square up where the delta is between the two big chunks from that business.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

What we would show in the fourth quarter is that we believe both of them will be down year-over-year based on the current outlook.

Charles Brady - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please proceed with your question.

Yeah. I mean, I get that. I mean that's – yeah. But I'm trying to understand....

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Well, okay – the question was one down versus the other? It think it's – part of this is just driven by what we've talked about in terms of the operational execution that we've seen and have struggled with a little bit as we come through the year-over-year. The backlogs are strong, as you can see, for both product categories. We are getting into the typical seasonal cadence that you would see later in the quarter with concrete. But part of this whole story is just getting back on our cadence from a production and delivery standpoint, and we believe that will put us in a much better position as we get into 2018 and execute in the next year.

Charles Brady - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Thanks. That's all I had.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Charley.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Hey. Good morning. Good morning, guys.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Hi, Seth.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Good morning.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Just wanted to go back to the defense margin discussion. So, the implied margin here for the fourth quarter is down quite a bit from the third quarter even though revenues looks like it's going to be up materially. So, I'm trying to understand what's going on, I guess, from a mix perspective or whatnot that would cause the margin to drop sequentially after the strong third quarter. That's my first question.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Sure. So, a couple of things there. One, Seth, would be, call it, again this discretionary spend timing that we're seeing. If you think about some of the engineering and new product development spending, as well as some of the marketing spend, that's going to be heavier in Q4 than Q3. Absorptions and other player in this, we – from a production standpoint, a lot of the M-ATVs that we're going to sell in the fourth quarter were already going down the line in the third fiscal quarter. So, we'll see some impact from that, and then the last thing overall, will just be aftermarket mix. We had a pretty favorable mix in aftermarket in the third quarter. And based on what we're seeing today, we don't expect that to be quite as strong in the fourth quarter.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. That's helpful, Dave. Thanks. And then, maybe just going back to the commercial discussion. I mean, how long do we let this go for? Is there some sort of line in the sand that we're looking at here going forward where if performance doesn't get better by X or under a certain revenue cadence, do you make more dramatic moves for that segment, maybe just how are you thinking about that? Thanks.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Sure, Seth. We believe this is a good business. They're the market leader in refuse and concrete mixers. They've had some operational issues that we believe are being corrected and we're putting some simplification initiatives in there that's going to work this business a lot like what we did at fire & emergency. You've seen that group come together over the last couple of years. We're not expecting it to take that long for commercial to turn around. So, going forward, I think you know every year, with our board and an outside third party, we look at some of the parts of all of our businesses and make sure that they are worth more to us than anyone else for a standalone. I can assure you today commercial is worth more to us than anyone else in that scenario. So, our goal is to get it back on the right track. Some of the structural changes that we're going to make, we're optimistic about it that we can get it on the right path to where – much like what you've seen us do with fire & emergency. So, we're – we've got a good team there. They're going to battle through this, and we think the dynamics in the market – refuse looks to be steady going forward. And then concrete mixers have been choppy, but that's a real old fleet out there, about an average age of 10 years. So we like the opportunities coming up especially if the construction forecasts hold. It can be a really good business.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. I appreciate the color, Wilson. Thank you.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Seth.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stanley Elliott with Stifel. Please proceed with your question. Stanley Stoker Elliott - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hey, guys. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. On the defense margins, have you all changed your assumptions of what the JLTV could be kind of on a longer term sort of a contract?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

No. We have not, Stanley, and as you know, under the percentage of completion method that we use, that is something that we look at every quarter. And we'll continue to look at that. And as we've said in the past, we think we probably need to get a little more road or mileage under our belt here in terms of producing the units and seeing where we kind of get to a steady run rate at before we make any meaningful decisions regarding margins on that program. Stanley Stoker Elliott - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. Perfect. So, really more of just a kind of work with manufacturing, getting a little bit better and then kind of reassessing at some point down the road. Is it a fair way to think about it?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Yeah. Again, we take a look at it every quarter. We're required to under GAAP. And so we make an estimate every quarter all the way out to the end of the current contract, which is into like 2023 or something like that. So, a lot of assumptions go into that and that's why we want to be a little bit further into the contract before we make any concrete decisions regarding margin one way or the other. Stanley Stoker Elliott - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: No, I think that's fair. And speaking of concrete – no, but speaking of commercial in general, right, I mean, you guys have done a nice job of putting in a lot of new technologies on the fire side. Are the refuse and the concrete placement markets the same level where you can come up with these sorts of technologies to drive margin improvements or is it really going to be more a structural change, cost out to get the margins where you want to see them?

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Well, it's a little of both of that, Stanley. We've got a lot of focus on not just product fitness, but process fitness. And we've seen that really help fire & emergency. So, there's an internal component that we can drive that's not just about operational efficiencies on the shop floor. But, now, there is some automation opportunities with these businesses and we've done some of that and we'll continue to assess that going forward. But that's something we evaluate each month. And, right now, what we're really focused on is a structural change in this business to drive it more similar to fire & emergency using some platform teams, again focused on some process fitness, driving complexity out of this business. The goal is just simplifying all of our work there. Stanley Stoker Elliott - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Perfect, guys. Thank you very much and best of luck.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Hey. Good morning. Thanks, guys.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Good morning, Ross.

Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Wilson, you were just talking about some of the consolidation going on in the rental space before and I'm just curious, do you foresee any share shifts either to your favor or your detriment kind of over the next 6 months to 12 months perhaps out of some of those combinations where you might be more or less linked to either the buyer or the seller?

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Ross, we've seen some of those shifts over the past during some consolidation. I wouldn't say there are significant shifts. That share moves around but at this point, we haven't seen any consolidation that we would view as bad for us.

Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Got it. Thanks. And then just back on defense and realizing it's early and so forth, you gave a lot of color on the expected backlog by the end of the year but if you kind of take what your midpoint of your guide – the margin guide is right about 11% for the year now for defense and you kind of think high-single digits being 8.5% for next year on $1.7 billion, it implies kind of like a 45% to 50% decremental. I'm just wondering if that resonates with what you're trying to communicate, and is that basically just the mix impact of more JLTVs, fewer M-ATVs?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Ross, I'll start. In terms of the $1.7 billion visibility, that's what we expect to have good, solid visibility as of the end of September, so the end of this fiscal year. And as Wilson mentioned, we believe there are opportunities to take the number above that for next year with some of the international opportunities that we believe are going to be concluded sooner rather than later. And so, I guess, I would say I wouldn't necessarily think of $1.7 billion as a top line number for defense next year. In terms of the actual high-single-digit operating income margin, that's a range. And we're not going to necessarily say what that range is. You guys can decide that. But we do know that there is going to be a mix shift impact as a result of going from nearly a thousand M-ATVs this year down to certainly a significantly lower quantity next year. And I don't think that's really news to anybody, but what I think we are continuing to focus on and pleased with how the team is executing and setting themselves up for next year is their ability to achieve that high-single-digit operating income margin.

Ross Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. Fair enough. Thanks, guys.

Patrick N. Davidson - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thank you.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thanks, Ross.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Hey. Good morning, guys.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Hi, Steve.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Just one quick follow-up to that defense. As you move into 2018 and you run through the existing international order, how should we think about the cadence of deliveries for domestic production? Do we get back to a more level loaded production run?

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Again, we haven't put to get that together for 2018 yet, but my initial reaction to that would be, I would expect so. But we would need to confirm that with the defense team.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. I'll follow up with that offline. Thanks.

David M. Sagehorn - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is a follow-up from the line of Pete Skibitski with Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed with your question.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks for squeezing me back in. I just want to ask on the ongoing telehandler weakness. Wilson, how much of that is driven by your product line rationalization? How much is driven by the strong dollar and maybe some share loss because of that? I'm just curious as to the drivers and then maybe your line of sight in terms of when that might bottom.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Sure, Pete. Good question. We had a conscious decision to streamline our European telehandler line, kind of an 80/20 process that we're pleased with where we're going with that. At the same time, we've made a decision to consolidate our telehandler manufacturing in the U.S., knowing that these moves could create a problem with the market and some loss of share, which it did. The telehandler market performed a little bit better than we forecasted, so that hurt us in that area. And then, we have had some issues battling against currency with some of the international competitors. So, it's kind of a combination of those three things. We think the tail end of market though, we like our position today and we see a good view going forward with it.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks for the color.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

All right, Pete.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have come to the end of our time for questions. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Jones for any final comments.

Wilson R. Jones - Oshkosh Corp.

Management

Thank you, operator. Thanks, everyone, for joining us. We appreciate your interest in our company. I look forward to speaking with you on the road or in Oshkosh or doing an investor conference. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.