Earnings Labs

Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 27, 2012

$149.56

-0.77%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-0.84%

1 Week

-5.50%

1 Month

+10.25%

vs S&P

+8.28%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation Fiscal 2012 Third Quarter Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Patrick Davidson, Vice President of Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you. Mr. Davidson, you may begin. Patrick Davidson – Vice President, Investor Relations: Thanks, (Claudia). Good morning everybody and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our third quarter results for fiscal 2012. A copy of that release is available on our website at oshkoshcorporation.com. Today’s call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months, and please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, include statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. Presenting today for Oshkosh Corporation will be Charlie Szews, President and Chief Executive Officer and Dave Sagehorn, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Let’s begin by turning to slide 3 and I’ll turn it over to you, Charlie. Charlie Szews –…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Please state your question. Ingrid Aja – JPMorgan: Good morning. It’s Ingrid Aja standing in for Ann.

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Good morning Ingrid.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Good morning. Ingrid Aja – JPMorgan: Good morning. I wonder if you could just go back to the AWPs and give us a little more color on what you’re seeing there. How long can replacement demand in North America continue and are you now seeing at all any fleet expansion and then maybe a little more color on what you’re seeing in Europe?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Okay. First of all we do believe that the replacement cycle for AWPs can extend some period of time. Average fleet ages are still very high and that with the continuing recovery we think that replacement cycle will go on for two years. With respect to fleet expansion we have seen some pockets of fleet expansion around the country, we don’t think it’s been significant but there has been some. And turning to Europe I don’t think much has really change the news has been pretty volatile about Europe the last few months, but fundamentally the news in AWP market is pretty consistent. And that is if the region of two halves, right Northern Europe is reasonably in good shape and Southern Europe is pretty dead, right. So, Northern Europe we’re seeing reasonable activity, it’s not going to be high growth activity, but we do think it will improve in 2013 and Southern Europe probably going to be a couple of years out before we see any. Ingrid Aja – JPMorgan: Okay great. Thanks. That’ helpful and then if we could switch to defense, you mentioned that you are moving around some of the FMTV sales. I was trying to better understand that how much volume is moving from FY ‘13 into FY ‘14 and maybe just talk about your outlook in general for defense?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Well, the moves do a few things it accommodates the build for the M-ATV and it also really helps to spill out of our shift production in a more rational manner. So, these are moves that we start with our customer and at the same time really helped our customer out with some of their initiatives. So, that’s really why we did it. Ingrid Aja – JPMorgan: Okay. So, it’s more just trying to more manage it more efficiently?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Absolutely, what it’s all about? Ingrid Aja – JPMorgan: Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you.

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes is from the line of Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets. Please state your question. Charlie Brady – BMO Capital Markets: Thanks. Good morning guys.

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Good morning.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Good morning. Charlie Brady – BMO Capital Markets: Hi. With respect to the guidance on access 40% up for the year, it looks like that implies flat fourth quarter revenues which seems a bit conservative and I’m just trying to square that with kind of the activity in your commentary and along with that can you speak to what you’re seeing from the smaller independent rental companies as far as what their participation in the purchasing has been like?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

No. Our fourth quarter, at least in our numbers is still up and I think you’re wrong the growth rate does declined some because I think last year in our fourth quarter we started to see really the ramp up in this segment. So, our growth rate is lower, but it still is strong growth rate in the quarter. The independents are still not a big factor in the market, we think its going to improve into 2013. We see some it still continues to be largely a financing issue as the bank markets a little bit choppy themselves and I think that affects the independents’ ability to get financing it is improving. And we do expect them to play a bigger role in the market next year. Charlie Brady – BMO Capital Markets: Okay. And with respect to M-ATV orders to the UAE that you are going to ship in fiscal ‘13 is will all that be – is that going to be any inter-segment similar to what we did on the original U.S. contract or is that all going to coming out of the Defense segment?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

We’re building all of the units in defense 100% in defense. Charlie Brady – BMO Capital Markets: Okay. Thanks very much.

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Walt Liptak with Barrington Research. Please state your question. Walt Liptak – Barrington Research: Hi good morning guys and thanks for the nice quarter. I want to ask about the defense business and the FMTV margins which you said are improving. I wonder if you can give us some color about what you are doing operationally to get those margins up if there is engineering changes going on maybe give us an idea of what those margins might be looking like at this point?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Largely the improvement is coming from efficiencies in the point we’ve hired some very strong talent in our defense operation and they are doing a terrific job of partnering with our production employees and getting us profitability in this contract to really where it needed to be. And that virtually where it’s all coming from, yes we are always looking at tinkering with the truck a little bit as you maybe aware any configuration changes of vehicle has to be approved by the customer and they generally mean if the win-win where we’re giving some of the savings back to our customers. So, largely right now it’s from efficiencies as we move forward we do a scheduled price increases that also impacted. Walt Liptak – Barrington Research: Okay good and on the UAE contract M-ATV contract from the U.S. government were pretty good in the double-digit, I wonder if you could comment on where you see the margins on this contract?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Really we can’t comment on that. Walt Liptak – Barrington Research: Okay.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Walt just in terms of I mean our customers asked us to not say a lot about the pricing on the contract, but obviously we know how to build the trucks. We think we will be efficient at it and we think we’ll do okay. Walt Liptak – Barrington Research: Okay, we’ve seen your margins in defense move around quite a bit obviously the FMTV margins were a lot lower than anything that’s happened to the company historically on the heavies we’ve seen those margins obviously move around over the last couple of years mostly to the down side. I wonder if you can maybe not say anything specific, but may be some color on how you are feeling about the profitability low margins similar to FMTV or is this closer to something traditional?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

On the M-ATV specifically that’ what you are asking? Walt Liptak – Barrington Research: Yeah right.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

I think historically you’ve seen our non-FMTV programs have higher margins and this is going to be more reflective of that. Walt Liptak – Barrington Research: Okay.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Go ahead Walt Liptak – Barrington Research: Okay, good. Thanks that’s what I was looking for.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line Rob McCarthy with Robert W. Baird. Please state your question Nick Dobre – Robert W. Baird: Yes, this is Nick Dobre again for Rob McCarthy. Good morning gentlemen.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Good morning.

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Good morning. Nick Dobre – Robert W. Baird: Going back to the defense segment, can you give us a sense for the FMTV program and what percentage of the quarter’s revenue has been in FMTVs?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

In the third quarter it was almost 50% of the revenue was FMTV related. Nick Dobre – Robert W. Baird: Okay and how about the margin on this business you commented on over the last couple of quarters so I am wondering how that progressed?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

We’ve talked about that we had continuing improvement in the last several quarters, but it really – it still remains in the low single digits. Nick Dobre – Robert W. Baird: I see and if I understand your earlier comment you were saying that basically this should be considered a run rate for the FMTV program going forward into the first part of fiscal ’14, have I understood your comments correctly or not?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

I don’t think so, in terms of run rate we are certainly picking with respect to daily production. And there are some scheduled decrease in daily production over the next two years there are very rational they’ve come down in steps?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

But I think in terms of margin, as Charlie alluded to earlier, we’re going to continue to work on driving efficiencies in the program, and ideally, we would like to see those margins continue to improve. Nick Dobre – Robert W. Baird: Great. And last one on Defense is can you give us sense for how you are thinking about the long-term revenue opportunity for this segment. And for M-ATV specifically how should we think about the global demand for this kind of a vehicle, when you are looking at your total market opportunity out there, outside of just the UAE?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Well, in terms of the segment overall we’re going have an Analyst Day on September 14, and we’re going to talk about the outlook for Defense at that point in time. We have a great platform of our vehicles now and – we’ll talk and give really shareholders I think what they have been looking for from us in this regard. The M-ATV we’ve said for some time that we have opportunities of about 3,000 M-ATV, but thereby no means is their prediction that we’re going to win those, but rather that, that’s sort of the population of opportunities that we are chasing and that they tend to take a long time to develop.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

I would say that our success in the UAE with the order there is I think positive example of the opportunities that we do believe are out there. Nick Dobre – Robert W. Baird: Well, and thank you. And last question for me is really around potential of share buybacks, I’m wondering do you have a particular debt-to-total capital target that we should be thinking about or how should we think about progression in that regard?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Well, we’ve talked that our debt is within our target – what we consider within our target range. So, I would look at it from a standpoint of our debt will kind of hang around where it is. We’ll take care of the required amortizations, quarterly amortizations as they come due, but we kind of like where our debt is right now. Nick Dobre – Robert W. Baird: Very well. Thank you.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next is coming from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Please state your question. Linda Yuan – Credit Suisse: Hi guys, this is Linda Yuan in for Jamie Cook.

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Good morning. Linda Yuan – Credit Suisse: Good morning. Could you go into how we should think about R&D and defense going forward, I’m assuming that it’s going to decrease given that the number of contracts is going to go down, so but this potentially help margins?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Not exactly sure of your question, certainly the M-ATV program win will help us here, but as I just said short-term ago, we’re going to give everyone a real good look at our Defense business here in September and provide you with our outlook. Linda Yuan – Credit Suisse: Okay. And then could you go a little bit more in depth on the type of revenues that we should be looking at for Defense segment, would that be something similar to what we had pre-Middle East for us?

Charlie Szews

Analyst

We’re going to give you our views on all of that here in September. We are preparing our comments as we speak I suppose for that meeting, but as we have said in our prepared remarks as well, we have four deployed business development people around the world, where we are pursuing additional M-ATV sales, sales of our other vehicles around the world. We are pursuing competitions like the JLTV, which is hopefully will be announced here by the end of August. And we think we have long-term viable defense business. Linda Yuan – Credit Suisse: Okay, alright. Thank you.

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Thanks Linda.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Good morning.

Charlie Szews

Analyst

Good morning, Jerry. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Charlie, can you talk about which of the platforms drove the outside surprise in defense into the back half of this year and so that’s something you are willing to comment. How we should be think about operationally what you are looking at in your defense business over the next couple of years. From a plant size and capacity standpoint, you were one of the first folks to outline what post Middle East demand means for military businesses? And I’m just wondering if you can give us some more context on, what we should expect on your cost structure over the next couple of years to the extent that you can comment head of your Analyst Day?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Jerry, good morning, it’s Dave. Just in terms of the quarter performance, really it was largely focused around the FMTV that – again that Charlie talked about the continued progress on that program. I think, we are pleased of what we are seeing and the team is really coming together and helping their improve the performance on that program. And then…

Charlie Szews

Analyst

With respect to long-term business, we think that this business is going to be profitable for long-term. We will do it, but we need to do – to sustain profitability in the business. I’m now here to talk about what facilities will remain open, what could potentially close at some point in time, because we are in a volatile world, right and there are lot of events going on in the Middle East that could sustain our long-term defense business. So, what we’ll talk about in September is a several range of possibilities for this business, but again, we are going to manage it to be profitable. We think we’ve got our MOVE initiatives are gaining traction and we are going to be able to sustain and drive good shareholder value over the next few years. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Okay. And I’m wondering if we could talk a little bit more about the aerials business that we have seen out of your rental companies, utilizations come down a bit off of high levels, in your mind, is it a situation of the added capacity too quickly, too fast in the first half of the year. So, now we are – as we saw in your orders and Terex orders, we are going to have a couple of quarter of adjustment process to get the utilizations backup or how do you see the cycle playing out, because clearly the weakness is showing up in your orders in their utilization rates?

Charles Szews

Analyst

Really, there are no weakness in the orders, what you are seeing is a normal seasonal pattern, Jerry. And we would expect that discussion to the national rental companies will pickup here in right around winter time and you will see orders in late in the first quarter and in the second quarter that will drive next year’s business. So, it would be very consistent for what we are seeing right now.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Jerry, just to add on that a little bit, one of the things in terms from an order pattern, I mean, five out of the last six years, our orders in the June quarter were down sequentially from March. So, this is what we would consider normal. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Alright, thank you.

Charles Szews

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from the line of Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets. Please state your question. Charlie Brady – BMO Capital Markets: Thanks. Just want to clarify your guidance on the Commercial segment, in the Q1, there were some restructuring charges embedded in that. Is your guidance include the Q1 restructuring, and I guess, similar question on the Fire and Emergency segment?

Charles Szews

Analyst

Charlie, I think it does include the restructuring and commercial in Q1 as well as what we incurred earlier in the fiscal year in the Fire and Emergency. Charlie Brady – BMO Capital Markets: Okay, thanks very much.

Charles Szews

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Rob McCarthy with Robert W. Baird. Please state your question. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Yes, thank you for the follow-up. Just wanted to ask a quick question about Wilson Jones’s new role, I am wondering if you can provide any insight as to how his role would develop and what will be maybe a little bit different than what you’ve currently done?

Charles Szews

Analyst

Okay, as has been evident, we’ve really been preparing Wilson for this move for some period of time. We’ve been promoting and moving into different segments, so that he has broader and broader responsibilities. He is a real talent and I view him as a partner in helping me execute the MOVE initiatives much faster, to be frank, a great additional urgency and deliver for shareholders. So, he is going to be managing the Access Equipment, Commercial, Fire and Emergency in our Asian operation. Obviously, I’m still going to be involved in all of that, but he is going to be able to develop more day-to-day attention to execute as the recovery unfolds. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Basili Alukos with Morningstar. Please state your question. Basili Alukos – Morningstar: Hey guys, good morning.

Charles Szews

Analyst

Good morning.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Good morning. Basili Alukos – Morningstar: Two questions related to the share buyback, first, I think in the past you guys have talked about bolt-on acquisitions and that potentially being part of the strategy and I’m not sure if it’s part of the move as you think differently, but has your view on acquisitions changed?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

No, it really hasn’t I mean – I think we would like to be opportunistic. And as we look at opportunities, and sometimes we want – we just want to maintain that flexibility. I think will be disciplined as we look at potential share buybacks here and the amount of shares that are currently authorized, while we think it’s a good amount, it’s not something that will totally limit our flexibility for other opportunities if they present themselves. Basili Alukos – Morningstar: Okay. And then a just housekeeping you mentioned $7.2 million was the total authorization?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

That’s what’s currently authorized, yes. Basili Alukos – Morningstar: And now have any shares already been repurchased?

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

No. Basili Alukos – Morningstar: Okay, great. Those are my questions. Thanks.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

As we reached the end of our Q&A session, I would like to turn the floor back over to management for closing remarks. Charlie Szews – President and Chief Executive Officer: Okay, thank you very much. We plan to continue working diligently to execute our MOVE strategy to drive shareholder value. We have a strong team that will be even stronger as we go forward with the recently announced promotions of Wilson Jones, the President and Chief Operating Officer as well as Frank Nerenhausen taking the helm at Access Equipment and Todd Fierro assuming the lead role in Commercial. For institutional investors and analysts on the call, you’ll have an opportunity to meet many key members of our leadership team on September 14th at our Analyst Day. Please contact Pat Davidson or Tina Schmiedel, if you’ve not already been contacted or if you’d like to hear more about the event. Thank you and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.