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Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Q1 2012 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 31, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation Reports Fiscal 2012 First Quarter Results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Pat Davidson, Vice President of Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you, Mr. Davidson, you may begin.

Patrick Davidson

Analyst

Good morning, and thanks for joining us everybody. Earlier today, we published our first quarter results for fiscal 2012. A copy of the release is available on our website at oshkoshcorporation.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months. Please refer now to Slide 2 of that slide presentation. Our remarks should follow, including answers to your questions, include statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K, filed with the SEC this morning, and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. Presenting today for Oshkosh Corporation will be Dave Sagehorn, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, normally Charlie Szews, our President and Chief Executive Officer will present, but Charlie has come down with a case of the flu and is unable to be with us today. Dave will be handling today’s call. Dave with that I'll turn it over to you and let’s turn to slide three everybody.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Okay, thanks Pat and good morning everyone. Over the last two months we probably talked to most of you on calls in connection with the proxy contest for which we do not yet have final results. While we have urgent views among our shareholders with regard to what the strategy should be, it’s fair to say that all shareholders want and expect management and the board to deliver superior value creation for shareholders and that’s our clear objective. We intend along with our Chairman, Dick Donnelly to share your feedback and ideas that we receive during this process with our full board and management team and respond over the next few months. We are mission driven to serve you, our shareholders, with urgency. Overall, total company sales increased 10.5% to $1.88 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2012 compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2011. Earnings per share of $0.42 in the quarter was lower than the prior year quarter due primarily to an adverse sales mix in our defense segment while our access equipment segment experienced another quarter of higher year-over-year sales and orders. Our actions to develop and implement our MOVE strategy enabled us to make important progress during the quarter. One of the most significant highlights was achieving profitability on our FMTV contract. We first announced this a few weeks back but it bears repeating as the FMTV program is an important part of our defense business. Through hardwork and strong execution by our integrated project teams we were able to generate a profit one quarter earlier than we had most recently estimated. In the access equipment segment we introduced a new 10-meter rental rental scissor and a compact crawler boom [ph] for Asian markets. In the commercial segment, we continue to analyze our footprint…

Patrick Davidson

Analyst

Thanks, Dave. I'd like to remind everyone to please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up, and after the follow-up we ask that you get back in queue and ask additional questions, and we’ll try to take as many as possible. Operator, please begin the Q&A session of period of this call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Jamie Cook, Crédit Suisse. Please proceed with your question. Jamie Cook – Crédit Suisse: Hi, good morning and congratulations on a nice quarter. A couple questions, one you noted I think corporate expenses are moving up a little higher and you talked about the proxy contest cost. Can you – I mean there was a hit in the first quarter, can you just – what we should expect I guess for the full year. And then I guess my other follow up question is on the fire and emergency side. Can you just talk about when – at what point throughout the year do we expect to achieve profitability in that segment for you to get to your margin target for the year?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Thanks Jamie. Regarding the proxy cost, there is a lot of activity that occurred in the month of January leading up to the annual shareholders meeting. I think we’ll probably see some similar results in the second quarter as a result of the proxy contest. Beyond that the contest itself is behind us, so I wouldn’t expect to see significant costs in the third and fourth quarter. Jamie Cook – Crédit Suisse: Okay. So another $0.02 or so.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Yeah, somewhere in that range. And then on fire and emergency, as we said, we do expect higher sales in the upcoming quarters and we saw in the first quarter we are on an annualized run rate of about $650 million in the first quarter, and as we talked about our full year outlook we expect slightly higher sales for the full year than FY’11 which would indicate a little more than $800 million. I think volume will definitely help us there. Also as we said, we do expect in the second quarter to generate a small profit. I anticipate that that will continue to grow in the subsequent quarters. Jamie Cook – Crédit Suisse: Okay, great. Thanks I’ll get back in queue.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed with your question. Ann Duignan – JPMorgan Chase: Hi, good morning guys. Ann Duignan – JPMorgan Chase: Just on the commercial side we were out at the World of Concrete last week. While the sense out there is that quoting activities things are getting a little bit better. Can you talk about where exactly you’re seeing the activity picking up and is there a sense that this could be the first year of a recovery? Then, in connection with that you have done very well on the repu side with your CNG offering. Can you talk about potentially for maybe some performance in that sector? Should it start to recover just on the back of alternative field products?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Sure. If I don’t hit all your questions here please remind me. I think we said that we did see higher sales in the first quarter, I think that’s encouraging, I think it’s too early to call it a solid trend. I think obviously fleets are getting older, so that is moving in our favor. I think if we see housing starts trend up that is also going to be very positive movement. Or even the sentiment the things are headed for an improvement. But again, I think we’re kind of in the first innings of a nine innings ball game here as it relates to concrete.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

The highway build potential would be [indiscernible].

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Highway, yeah. That could also help. As it relates to CNG we do have the CNG product or offerings for concrete mixers, and again similar to CNG we are a leader in that market. We do think there are significant opportunities there, but until we see some increase in the overall demand in the market, a meaningful increase, the numbers are going to be fairly small. Ann Duignan – JPMorgan Chase: Okay, thank you. Just a follow-up, restructuring cost, can you just give us some guidance by segment for the rest of the year, if you did already I apologize?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

In terms of restructuring cost themselves the we are expecting? Ann Duignan – JPMorgan Chase: Yeah.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I mean we are looking at a number of things, but we haven’t actually made any announcements on what we would expect for restructuring costs. Ann Duignan – JPMorgan Chase: Would it be correct to say that it will be concentrated in fire and emergency only?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I mean we are going to continue to look at things across the board as part of our MOVE strategy. We need to work on improving the performance at Florida which we have talked about, and that was something that was initiated last fiscal year. Ann Duignan – JPMorgan Chase: Okay, I will get back in line, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Charles Brady with BMO Capital Markets. Please go forward with your question. Charles Brady – BMO Capital Markets: Hi, good morning guys. Hey with respect to access equipment and your second quarter sales outlook, if we exclude the benefit you guys got in M-ATV in Q1, just on an apples to apples basis, is it fair to say are you expecting sequentially sales to be up in Q2 for access?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Absolutely. Yeah, I think we probably saw more of a traditional seasonality pattern in the first quarter than we may have seen in the last year or two. Charles Brady – BMO Capital Markets: Okay. Can you clarify the commentary on you bringing in external resources for ambulance and the medical mobile consolidation there, what exactly does that mean?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

It’s just people that – you know, we have got a number of things that we need to accomplish there and we have been able to redirect some internal resources to that, but we were also just bring in some external that will help us get through things more quickly. Charles Brady – BMO Capital Markets: And that should last throughout the rest of fiscal 2012?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I wouldn’t expect that it’s going to last that long. Charles Brady – BMO Capital Markets: Okay. And one final one, and I’ll hop back on the queue. On the FMTV profitability, it looks like it’s about a 1.3% operating margin this quarter. Should we expect that to be kind of the run-rate for the remainder of the year or, you know, you talked about trying to get that margin up a little bit and you get more into foray production. Is there more room upside this year from that?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Yeah, I think it might tick up a little bit over the remaining quarters of the year and I think we’ll continue to see additional movement as we go through fiscal 2013. Charles Brady – BMO Capital Markets: Great, thanks very much.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies & Company. Please state your question. Stephen Volkmann – Jefferies & Company: Good morning guys. A couple of quick follow ups Dave. I think you mentioned price, cost, sort of issues in the couple of your segment discussions and I guess I am curious how you think that’s going to look for the full 2012. Are you kind of back where you need to be, could it even be a bit of a [indiscernible].

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I think in access we’ve been very open about the price increase that's effective January 1st. In that segment we feel good about the traction that we’ve gained with that as we’ve looked at the backlog, so we expect to see some meaningful impact from that starting in the second quarter leading through the rest of the quarters here. The other segments, fire and emergency, actually the pricing has become, in our view, a little more challenging as we’ve seen competitive OEMs chasing pure deals, so that’s something that we’re going to have to deal with here as we move forward. In commercial I don’t know that I see a lot of change in the dynamics in pricing compared to what we’ve seen in the prior quarters. Stephen Volkmann – Jefferies & Company: Okay, great, that's helpful. Maybe I am splitting air here, but I guess I was surprised you raised your access revenue line fairly meaningfully, but didn’t really change your margin target. Can I assume it’s going from the low end to the high end of that margin range or is there something else that might keep you from – benefiting from overhead absorption and all that other good stuff.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I think the operating income was arranged and compared to where we previously thought it probably has moved to the right sum as a result of that, but still within that range. Stephen Volkmann – Jefferies & Company: Okay, that's great. Historically when we’ve seen these big combination in the rental pool, Dave sort of backed off from CapEx for a little while, to try to kind of figure out what they have and where they want to put all their eggs in whatever baskets. Are you seeing anything like that, it doesn’t sound like it, but that's what – historically I might have expected that.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Yeah. I think – we still continue to receive orders from both United and RFC, and we anticipate that we will be a major supplier to them post acquisition. I think generally what you see is prior to a deal like that closing, they are precluded from having a lot of interaction with each other. To do that that would probably happen post closing of the transaction. Stephen Volkmann – Jefferies & Company: Great, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Andrew Owen, Bank of America. Andrew Owen – Bank of America: Good morning. Just to follow up, and I apologize I dialed in a little bit late. But looking at profitability for the year, and I understand your comment about the mix, but it still seem to just arithmetically imply that every other program will be sort of in high single digits if you just do the mix. Given that FMTV was breakeven in Q1 I am just having a hard time sort of – I mean that's the implications on having a hard time understanding why would profitability collapse in every other defense program, because that's what seems to be implied by the numbers.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I guess Andrew we’d have to go back and look at that. I know that for example in the FHTV program we have talked about in [indiscernible] we’ve seen new variance of vehicles come on that are comprising a larger percentage of sales in that program and those generally when you introduce newer variance you do see initially lower margins on those. That may be part of what you are seeing and again we can go back and take a look at it. Andrew Owen – Bank of America: But I guess I'm just trying to understand. I mean all I'm saying if two-thirds of the business is a 10% margin and one-third of the business is a zero pc margin, you still get margin between 6% and 7%, and I'm trying to understand are we being conservative here or there is something structural going on that is impairing significantly profitability in other business.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I think we’ve got costs that we are incurring this year as we were pursuing new sales opportunities I think we talked about a lot. You know there are a number of competitions ongoing out there right now. So we are seeing investments in those that are probably impacting things as well. Andrew Owen – Bank of America: I will take it offline. Thank you very much.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Hi, good morning. Dave and Pat, can you say more about your outlook for the access equipment business. In Europe what kind of sales and order gw did you see in this past quarter and what range of European sales does your segment outlook assume with any other color you can provide? Thanks.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Jerry, we experienced strong double digit year-over-year increases again this quarter similar to what we did in the fourth quarter. You got to remember this is coming off of significantly lower sales levels than we had prior to the downturn. As we said in the prepared remarks that as the quarter progress we saw customers become more cautious, I would say. Taking them longer to make their decisions or they are pushing things out. For the full year I think we still expect that we will see sales up year-over-year, but we will have to see how things play out given all the concerns about the economy in Europe. Andrew Owen – Bank of America: There is that regional aspect you mentioned Dave where you’ve got some of the Scandinavian where it has been pretty strong and some of the other more Southern European countries, Jerry that have been a little less certain. Andrew Owen – Bank of America: I appreciate the color gentlemen. On the military business what were total M-ATV truck and part sales in the quarter and what are your expectations for part sales for the full year or if you don’t have visibility for just the next couple of quarters?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

In the quarter I think all-in we were probably around $400 million for M-ATV related sales that would be truck and parts. We delivered more than 400 M-ATV vehicles this quarter. Currently we do not have any vehicles in the backlog to be produced and sold for the remainder of fiscal 2012, as you know we are pursuing a number of opportunities internationally. So I would expect that going forward at least for the rest of fiscal 2012 you are going to see significantly lower M-ATV related revenues than we saw in the first quarter. Andrew Owen – Bank of America: Dave can you give us a rough run-rate of, are we talking $100 million per quarter in parts or less than that, do you have a feel?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

We are just not going to get into that level of granularity. Andrew Owen – Bank of America: Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Robert Mccarthy with Robert W. Baird. Please state your question. Robert Mccarthy – Robert W. Baird: Good morning gentlemen. Looking for a little more color on the access equipment segment, your increased top line outlook, is that just the function of strength that you saw on the first quarter or have you raised your expectations for the balance of the year? Unidentified Company Representative It’s both Rob. I think we did see relatively strong performance in the quarter versus what we were expecting given the weak quarter from the seasonality standpoint, but we continue to see strong orders as we have entered January here and that we are going to see improved performance through the remainder of the year. Robert Mccarthy – Robert W. Baird: Do you think that upside is, I mean is it more geographic or does it have to do with national rental being stronger or – the release talks about seeing some improvement in smaller independents?

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Sure, I think it’s – when we talk geographically I’d say it’s – versus three months ago our outlook has improved pretty much everywhere except Europe, and again Europe has become more cautionary I would say. Then the independence have started to pop up, so in the U.S. that’s contributing the things as well. Robert Mccarthy – Robert W. Baird: Okay, and I'm just curious separately. The comments about more fire and emergency sales in Europe, is that – are we talking about fire equipment or airport equipment or what and how do you – I mean is this going to be export business out of the U.S.?

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Yes, most of it is right now concentrated in airport and yes it would be exported out of the U.S. Robert Mccarthy – Robert W. Baird: Yeah, okay. All right, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Steve Barger with Keybanc Capital Markets. Please state your question. Steve Barger – Keybanc Capital Markets: Hi, good morning. Before the downturn commercial margin struggled for various regions that have been resolved, and we know there has been a lot of cost take up over the last couple of years. If we are going to see a revenue recovery in that segment, how should we think about operating margin on a more normalized basis?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Well, I would say as we talked about in the past we’d like to get all of our segments up to double digit margins, and with some of the actions that we have undertaken in the commercial segment and with some of the change over and personnel there, I think that we do have the opportunity to see that segment get back to double digit margins when things get more to a normalized sales level. Steve Barger – Keybanc Capital Markets: Can that happen on 600 or $700 million in revenue or do you need bigger numbers than that to get there?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

No, not on 600 or $700 million of revenue. I mean this is a business that's still down or segment is still down probably more than 30% from prior peaks. But I think what we saw in the first quarter here is encouraging. I think we are probably seeing a little bit of lumpiness as we go through the remainder of the year but definitely headed in the right direction. Steve Barger – Keybanc Capital Markets: I am sorry if I mentioned this, I think you said FMTV was 30% of revenue that implies a little over $300 million, is that the run rate we should expect for that program for the remainder of the year or is that still ramping?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I think it’s still ramping but it’s not going to be significantly higher than that in the upcoming quarters, I don’t believe. Steve Barger – Keybanc Capital Markets: So, low to mid 300 range per quarter.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I think that's a good target for now. Steve Barger – Keybanc Capital Markets: Okay, thanks

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Walt Liptak with Barrington Research, please proceed with your question. Walt Liptak – Barrington Research: I wanted to ask a follow up on AWPs in Europe, you talked about the price increase, is that a global price increase or is that geographically mixed?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

That's global. Walt Liptak – Barrington Research: Okay, great, just a follow up on the bridge contract. Could you refresh our memories on just the size of that bridge contract and the timing of when the trucks are supposed to shift, and I guess I am thinking about 2013 and 2014 as well.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Sure, we signed the contract Walt, the actually delivery orders have not been received yet. There is money sitting in the FY12 budget that was not finalized until as you know mid December, and they have not – the dollars have not made their way down through take-on in the form of delivery orders yet. But, you can expect that those will largely be late, FY13, and FY14 sales for us. Walt Liptak – Barrington Research: In the past you have talked about just kind of generally what you think the long term defense revenue would be, I guess going out to 2013 and 2014, can we get an update on that?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Sure, we talked about longer term, this being a $2 billion to $2.5 billion that's what we are targeting. I think we’ll have a better outlook after the FY13 budget is [indiscernible] couple of weeks, along with that we are expecting that they will issue a – it’s called a program objective memorandum or the POM, which is kind of their five year outlook, so that will give us some better clarity and color. But as we stand here today in order for us to achieve that $2 billion to $2.5 billion we do believe that we are going to need to win some business to get there and as you know we are competing in Canada for programs or competing in US for programs, and we have other international opportunities out there. There are a number of avenues that we are purusing, but again I would say that call it mid to late February we will have a better view at least from the US program standpoint.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Robert McCarthy with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question. Robert McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Will you new any benefits this year out of the JLF cost savings or is that going to be largely absorbed by the issues that you’ve had with the consolidation in Florida in the fire and emergency segment.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Well, I think Rob we are investing – you are talking JLG… Robert McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Save money in Europe at JLF but you’ve got incremental cost in Florida.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Yeah. I think this year it will largely be a wash between the two. I think I see positive benefits next year. Robert McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Can you remind us rough annual run rate on the JLG cost savings.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Sure, between the – there is a couple of JLG programs within Europe and some other things we are doing domestically here. That's about $12 million a year, and then on access once we get that up to where we had originally planned that's probably between $10 and $15 million a year, between the move to Florida and some of the things that we’ve done at peers here in Wisconsin. Robert McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Can you just clarify, I though maybe you said JLG and access.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

All right, I meant access and fire and emergency.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Jerry Ravich with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Dave, can you talk about the timing of the potential M-ATV bid opportunities in Africa you alluded to in your prepared remarks.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Yeah, we talked about the Middle East and Africa, and as we’ve talked on previous calls either things that do take time, we can continue to work them, I think depending on how successful we are, we are probably looking at FY13 and FY14 sales for those units. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: That's helpful, in terms of the FHTV bridge can you outline the rough terms, any key aspects of that contract that we should think about as being different from the last FHTV contract, any changes in margin structure or payments that we should think about?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Again, we’ve got the contract itself, pricing as we go forward that is yet to be negotiated but that will be a sole sourced effort as we have done previously on this program. I don’t expect that we’ll see any meaningful differences in how we go about that. Payment structure I would assume is going to be consistent with the current program.

Wilson Jones

Analyst

Jerry, it should be little richer I believe in remanufacturer, right, a number of vehicles coming back on the FHTV kind of reset, recap.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Yeah. And then just take that a little bit farther I don’t anticipate there would be significant margin differences between reman vehicle and a new one. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: For the access equipment business, can you give us a rough sense of what kind of tailwind we should expect from pricing net of material cost. You have been very public with the price increases, I wonder if you just put that in perspective relative to some cost creep that we might be seeing on the material side?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I guess Jerry we feel confident that we are going to achieve – largely achieve the price increases that we put out there, based on our review of the backlog, so I would expect we’ll capture most on that side. On the material cost standpoint as we look at material cost, and steel has ticked up a little bit here over the last month or so. Our view going forward is we don’t anticipate significant movement in that over the course of the remainder of the fiscal year. So, I would expect that we will see most of that price increase brought through in the formal months. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen you are approaching the end of our time for question and answer session. We have time for one final question. That question this morning will be from the line of Basili Alukos of Morningstar, Inc. Please state your question. Basili Alukos – Morningstar, Inc.: Hey, good morning guys. Question on the FMTV I think when you initially won the contract you mentioned it’s going to be a very lucrative form of parts and service business perspective. And I'm just wondering if you can talk about as you think about that contract, what percentage of the overall revenue could come from parts and service? Would it be any difference from a traditional contract?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

I think over time we will approach what we have seen with traditional programs and those have actually fluctuated depending on the amount of proprietary content versus what would call off the shelf product in there, but you certainly anticipate that the parts buying would pick up over the coming years on that program. Basili Alukos – Morningstar, Inc.: Thanks and then can given the profitability struggles this has been happening on at least the manufacturing units back - back to alter with the parts and service profitability would be?

David Sagehorn

Analyst

No, no, we don’t. Basili Alukos – Morningstar, Inc.: Got you and then one more switching gears going back to JLG. Could you remind us when the acquisition occurred if it was considered for tax purposes and asset sale because I'm just trying to get at if there is any goodwill associated with it that might be tax deductable in that.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

It was a stock sale. Basili Alukos – Morningstar, Inc.: Okay, great those are my questions. Thank you.

David Sagehorn

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I will now turn the floor back to Mr. Davidson at this time for closing comments.

Patrick Davidson

Analyst

Thanks very much. Thanks for joining us everybody. Just a quick remainder that several of you will be attending the rental show in New Orleans next week and I will be there throughout the duration of the show. I know you have got some booth tours and some meeting scheduled for Monday and Tuesday so we look forward to seeing you then. We look forward to seeing you out in the future as well whether it’s trade shows or events and with that I will turn it back over to the guy carrying extra workload this morning and Dave, I will turn it over to you.

Dave Sagehorn

Analyst

Thanks Pat and thanks everyone again for participating in the call today and for your interest in Oshkosh Corporation and hope you all have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for you participation.