Thomas G. McFall
Analyst · Barclays
Thanks, Jeff. Now we'll move on to the numbers and a little more color on our guidance. Comparable store sales for the quarter increased 6.5% on top of prior year's comps of 2.5%. Both DIY and professional contributed to the increase, with professional again leading the way by solid growth in our acquired Western markets, as well as strong results in our core markets. Both average ticket and ticket comp contributed strongly to the positive increase in comparable store sales. For the quarter, sales increased $152 million, comprised of $100 million increase in comp store sales, a $52 million increase in non-comp store sales and flat non-comp non-store sales. As Greg mentioned, we are setting our third quarter comparable store sales guidance of 4% to 6%, which is unchanged from our internal expectations created at the beginning of the year. Year-to-date, our comparable store sales increased 3.6% on top of prior year's comps of 4.9% and were within our expected range as weather partners have normalized. For the full year, sales and comparable store sales guidance for 2013 have remained unchanged from the beginning of the year at $6.6 billion to $6.7 billion in sales and a 3% to 5% increase in comparable store sales based on expected continued solid sales volumes in the back half of the year. As Greg discussed, our gross margin results exceeded our expectations for the quarter. Gross margin as a percent of sales for the quarter increased 94 basis points over the prior year to 50.8% of sales, driven by strong merchandise margins resulting from improved acquisition costs, pricing management and solid shrink results. Sequentially, our second quarter gross margin as a percent of sales improved 45 basis points over our strong first quarter results, driven by improved acquisition costs, favorable product mix and increased leverage of our distribution costs on higher sales volumes. As we continue to realize acquisition cost benefits from incremental better purchasing power with our vendors, these product acquisitions -- excuse me, we continue to realize acquisition cost benefits from incrementally better purchasing power with our vendors. These product acquisition cost reductions may outpace inflation in the near-term, reducing our LIFO reserve to a LIFO debit. The practice in our industry when this situation occurs is not consistent. However, should our LIFO inventory exceed the value of replacement cost, we will select the conservative approach and not write up our inventory value beyond replacement cost. To the extent we see acquisition cost improvements while on a 0 LIFO reserve balance, it will create a headwind to gross margin over some period of time. Despite the oddities of LIFO accounting, acquisition cost decreases are positive to our business generating increased profit dollars at the point of sale and will benefit our gross margin percentage in the long run. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect to continue to generate solid merchandise margins at the point of sale, offset in part by the potential LIFO headwinds and gain traction from our distribution efficiencies. However, we will anniversary the benefits we realized in the third and fourth quarters of 2012 from the larger than typical amount of capitalized distribution costs associated with our store level inventory enhancement initiative last year. As a reminder, the store stack up inventory movements last year were more efficient than normal orders, so we realized a benefit related to capitalized distribution costs during this initiative. Based on these factors and our year-to-date results, we're raising our full year gross margin as a percent of sales guidance to 50.3% to 50.7%. SG&A for the quarter was 33.6% of sales versus 34.3% the prior year and was generally in line with our expectations. This 75 basis point improvement in SG&A as a percent of sales is attributable to leverage on strong comps. Through the first 6 months of the year, SG&A as a percent of sales versus the prior year was down 7 basis points due to the tough comparison in the first quarter of this year. As Jeff discussed earlier, we expect to continue to see slightly higher-than-planned conversion in payroll costs at the acquired VIP stores in the back half of the year, and as a result, we now expect our full year per store SG&A increase to be 0.5% to 1%, up slightly from our previous guidance of an increase of 0.5%. Operating profit as a percent of sales for the quarter was 17.3%, which is a 169 basis point improvement over the prior year and represents our all-time high quarterly operating profit. For the first half of 2013, operating profit as a percent of sales improved 71 basis points to 16.6% of sales. Based on our strong year-to-date results, the revised gross margin expectations, we're raising our full year operating profit as a percent of sales to 16% to 16.4%, up from our previous guidance of 15.8% to 16.2%. Diluted earnings per share for the second quarter was $1.58 per share, which represents an increase of 37%. For the first 6 months, diluted earnings per share was $2.94 per share, which represents an increase of 28%. Our year-to-date EPS benefited from a tax rate of 37.1% of pretax income versus a rate of 38.2% for the first 6 months of 2012. As a reminder, this beneficial rate was the result of a positive resolution of income tax audits and the benefit of certain job tax credits in the first quarter of 2013. We continue to expect a full year tax rate of approximately 37.4% of pretax income. For the third quarter, we're establishing diluted earnings per share guidance of $1.60 to $1.64. Based on our above-plan results in the second quarter and additional shares repurchased since our last call, for the full year, we're raising our guidance to $5.79 to $5.89 per share. As a reminder, our diluted earnings per share guidance for both the third quarter and the full year take into account the shares we repurchased through yesterday, but do not reflect the impact of any potential future share repurchases. Moving to the balance sheet. Our average inventory per store at the end of the second quarter was $574,000, up 3% from $556,000 at the end of the second quarter of 2012 and in line with our per store inventory at the end of 2012. We continue to project inventory per store to be flat in 2013 as we continue to identify opportunities accretive to our existing investments into more productive inventory. At the end of the second quarter, our AP to inventory ratio was 87.8%, up from 79.2% at the end of the second quarter of 2012 and 84.7% at the end of 2012. The year-to-date increase is better than expected primarily due to the timing of payments. For the full year, we continue to expect our AP to inventory ratio to be flat with the end of 2012. Earlier in July, we announced the second amendment to our credit facility, which extended the maturity date, reduced the spreads for borrowings and reduced our facility fees, equating to a 25 basis point decrease on drawn funds. This amendment is also a benefit to our vendor planning financing program as it will allow for reduced spreads for our vendors in the program. These more attractive rates allow us to continue to reduce overall supply chain costs while also providing the opportunity for extending payment terms. Capital expenditures for the second quarter were $103 million, bringing year-to-date CapEx to $177 million, which was slightly below our expectations. However, as Jeff discussed, we will begin construction of a new DC in Chicago and the additional expenditures associated with this project will bring us back into the expected full year range of $385 million to $415 million. For the quarter, cash flow declined to $110 million versus $201 million in 2012 caused solely by the dramatic improvement we made in our net inventory investments in 2012 driven by the rapid growth in our vendor financing program. We have not changed our full year free cash flow expectations and are maintaining our original guidance range of $450 million to $500 million. Next, I'll provide you with an update of our share repurchase program. During the second quarter, we've repurchased approximately 2.5 million shares with an aggregate cost of $274 million at an average price of $107.61. Subsequent to the end of the second quarter and through the date of this earnings release, we repurchased approximately 0.5 million shares at an average price of $113.66, bringing our cumulative year-to-date repurchases to 5.5 million shares. Our cumulative share repurchases since the inception of our program at January of 2011 through yesterday were 37.6 million shares at an average price of $79.27, and we have $521 million remaining under our current board-approved share repurchase authorization. As we've discussed several times since the inception of our repurchase program, we continue to believe the best use of our cash is to reinvest back into our business, but we continue to view buybacks as an effective use of excess available cash, and we'll continue to opportunistically execute the program moving forward. At the end of the second quarter, our adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.98x. With the issuance of our $300 million senior notes in June, we expected to enter the lower end of our long-term targeted leverage range of 2 to 2.25x, but our strong second quarter EBITDA results dropped us just below this range. We continue to believe that our established target leverage range represents the appropriate capital structure for our company, and we'll continue to incrementally move toward entering that range. However, we are also very committed to maintaining or improving our investment-grade credit ratings. Before we turn the call over to the operator to take your questions, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank our store, DC and headquarter Team Members for their commitment to our company's success. As we've grown over the years, you've never forgotten that the basic premise of taking care of customers is what made O'Reilly so successful and will be the key to our future profitable growth. Thank you again for your hard work. At this time, I'd like to ask Robert, the operator, to return to the line, and we'll be happy to answer your questions.