Earnings Labs

Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 25, 2012

$40.00

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Please standby. Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Old Republic International Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up for questions. Once again, I would like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded, and it is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Mr. Scott Eckstein with MWW Group. Please go ahead.

Scott Eckstein

Management

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today for Old Republics conference call to discuss the third quarter 2012 results. This morning we distributed a copy of the press release. If there is anyone online who did not receive a copy, you can access it at Old Republics website which is www.oldrepublic.com. Please be advised that this call may involve forward-looking statements as discussed in the press release dated October 25, 2012. Risks associated with these statements can be found in the company’s latest SEC filings. Participating in today’s call, we have Aldo Zucaro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Nard, Chief Executive Officer of the run-off RFIG business, and Karl Mueller, Old Republic’s Chief Financial Officer. At this time, I’d like to turn the call over to Al Zucaro for his opening remarks. Please go ahead sir.

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Okay, thank you and good afternoon to everyone. So with this quarter’s earnings report, we will continue with the refocused approach we adopted last quarter in discussing Old Republics business, specifically, we’ll be focusing on our Old Republic holding company system sitting so to speak on a three-legged stool, the three legs of course are represented by our two largest businesses of general insurance and title insurance and a much smaller life and accident operation. The fourth leg which we recently reorganized as the Republic Financial Indemnity Group or RFIG, combines our mortgage guarantee and consumer credit indemnity coverages, both of which are in run-off operating mode and are not producing any new business currently or not going to be producing new business for the foreseeable future, and therefore their operations are limited to the collection of renewal premiums and the settlement of claims on the run-off business. From an ERM enterprise risk management standpoint, we view the RFIG run-off business as being akin to a discontinued operation, and we say akin too because existing GAAP accounting rules do not allow financial reporting treatment as in fact a discontinued operation even though that is effectively what’s happening with it, since it s being driven as I say, for an extended run-off period. We firmly believe that the long term run-off in which these operations are currently, is absolutely needed to allow sufficient time for resolving both existing as well as future claim obligations in a very methodical and rational basis. As we’ve reported in the past as well as in this morning’s news release, a recapitalization of our mortgage guarantee line which is absolutely necessary since most, if not all of its capital has now been depleted, that such as recapitalization within Old Republic’s holding company system is simply not…

Karl Mueller

Management

Okay, thanks, Al. As we reported in this morning’s earnings release, we ended the quarter right at 3.7 billion in total shareholder’s equity or $14.40 per share which by the way reflects little change from year-end 2011 as we show in the table, I think on page 8. On the asset side of the balance sheet, in the investment portfolio mix is really not changed substantially since the prior year end. It continues to favor high quality liquid fixed income securities and continues to reflect solid market appreciation. On the other side of our balance sheet, for the first nine months of this year, the consolidated prior year end loss reserves are developing at essentially a breakeven point which is largely consistent with the same period of results for 2011. However, I would note that the makeup of the current year development results from lower favorable development in the general insurance group for the reasons that Al just enumerated a little bit ago, and that is offset by lower deficiencies in the RFIG run-off segment. I do think it’s reasonable, or we think it’s reasonable to expect that these overall trends could continue for the next couple of quarters or so. Our quarter end debt to equity ratio remains at 15.5% as of September 30th and the debt to total capital ratio is 13.4%, both of which are unchanged from June 30th. These percentages are much lower than the comparable percentages of 24.2 and 19.5 as of the prior year end, and again, that’s due to the repayment of our 8% convertible debt securities that we discussed at length during our second quarter earnings call. We believe that these debt leverage ratios provide us with more than sufficient flexibility to go to market and issue additional debt if the need…

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Okay. I think between Karl and I, we’ve given you some additional color on this morning’s release. So I think we should go ahead and open up this meeting to any questions you have.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Jim Ryan with Morningstar. Jim Ryan – Morningstar, Inc.: Good afternoon, Al.

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Good afternoon. Jim Ryan – Morningstar, Inc.: Okay. When I’m looking at your title insurance operating statistics, I see the open and closed orders. Could I assume that those are you direct operations?

Aldo Zucaro

Management

That’s the –

Karl Mueller

Management

Yes, it is. Jim Ryan – Morningstar, Inc.: Okay.

Aldo Zucaro

Management

It says direct orders and direct order close, right? Because as you know, those are the orders that we can track. The orders that come in from the agents, particularly from an opening standpoint, we can see closings, but we cannot see the openings that are in the system. Jim Ryan – Morningstar, Inc.: And could you remind me what percentage of the reported premium on title is agent versus direct?

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Roughly our business now is at around almost 65% agency and 35% direct. Most of the growth that we’ve had substantially, a substantial portion of the growth we’ve had in the size of our title business has come from the agency side. Jim Ryan – Morningstar, Inc.: Okay.

Aldo Zucaro

Management

We’ve had – yes, go ahead. Jim Ryan – Morningstar, Inc.: Then could we assume then since like most title companies, you’re reporting on a one quarter lag basis, that most of the revenue we’re seeing on title is really coming from the second quarter.

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Correct. Jim Ryan – Morningstar, Inc.: Which means fourth quarter will have the third?

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Correct, that’s absolutely right. Jim Ryan – Morningstar, Inc.: Okay, all right. So then, you might assume judging from the competitor of yours that reported today that the fourth quarter would be even far better?

Aldo Zucaro

Management

It should be. Jim Ryan – Morningstar, Inc.: Okay. I just wanted to clarify that.

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Yes, sir. Jim Ryan – Morningstar, Inc.: Thank you.

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Steven Charest with Divine Capital Markets. Steven Charest – Divine Capital Markets: Hey, good afternoon, gentlemen. Thanks for the info. Just looking at one of the items here on a post-classified basis, I guess, we could call it, net premiums aren’t growing about 15% and benefits and claims cost, up 22%. Aside from the work [inaudible] narrative, is there any sense from your perspective historically on seasonality in that?

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Not really. I mean, as we’ve said before, Steve, we look at our reserve development every quarter. And they’re fundamentally driven in most of outlines of insurance. They’re driven by paid claim trends. And in the general insurance, in particular, their relationship of paid claims on individual case reserves. So when you see what’s happening to us in the last couple of quarters, that’s really reflective of that quarterly review of paid claim trends. Now, obviously, depending on what happens to prior years reserves, that gives us the ability to determine what the effective cost have been for prior year’s earned premiums. And therefore, we apply prospectively based on our views on what’s happening to premium rates and so forth. We apply that prospectively to the current year. And that’s why I believe I said that these adjustments impacted – reflected both some of the prior year’s cases being settled currently, as well as this prospective application of past experience to the current year’s book of business. So particularly in general insurance, a lot more so than title or mortgage guarantee for that matter, there is very little seasonality to our business, especially when you consider that the premiums are earned on the so-called rule of 24th. So the premiums we write in a particular quarter get in fact amortized or earned over the next 12 months. So that stems or that reduces the seasonality on the revenue side of business. And then when you look to the claim side, as I say, we are very proactive in assigning a claim cost to the proper period. I think that’s an overly long explanation and answer to your question but – Steven Charest – Divine Capital Markets: Yes. No, I appreciate it. I think I’ll squeeze one more in there on the mortgage side of the business. Let’s call it a chain of event from decreased delinquencies through the clearance process. We’ve been seeing improvement on the delinquency side the last few quarters as you’ve guys reported and not yet seen evidence of improvement on that clearance cycle yet. Do you have any color that we could help fill in some of the story there or that’s still too unclear yet?

Karl Mueller

Management

When you say that clearance cycle, I’m not sure I follow you on your term. Steven Charest – Divine Capital Markets: Yes. Right. So we’re looking at claims or delinquencies coming down, not claims, delinquencies coming down and the expectations would be if that continues at some point, we would start to see the claims start to come down and the loss ratio start to bottom out maybe at 2014 or so as we discussed. And is there any more evidence of anything that we can look towards on a speculative basis?

Karl Mueller

Management

I think what we mentioned in the press release was as delinquencies have continued to come down as the economy recovers, we continue to make some adjustments in our provisions for rescissions. So we’re taking down the estimated impact of rescissions in this quarter. That had a big impact and, in essence, swamped some of the benefits from the reduction of delinquencies. So what I would tell you is as those reserve adjustments begin to level off, then it’ll be a clear view to seeing the impact of the reduction in delinquencies in the future. Steven Charest – Divine Capital Markets: Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our next question will come from Rey Wicklander with Tradewinds Global Investors. Rey Wicklander – Tradewinds Global Investors: Hi, Al. Hi, Karl.

Karl Mueller

Management

Hello.

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Hi. Rey Wicklander – Tradewinds Global Investors: The adverse development in workers’ comp, how much of that was attributable to the PMA-acquired portfolio?

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Well, that portfolio is melded with the rest of our business. We’re looking at lost [ph] developments and their totality. We don’t have the numbers right now, fully separated at least, and separated as we’d like them to be. So I can’t answer the question. But we have a couple of books of business that as you might suspect in the construction area, which has had difficulties in this economic climate, which are showing, have shown weakness on case reserve development. And then we’ve got a mixed bag elsewhere. We’ve got a couple of big claims that hit where we – jury verdicts went against us. It is nothing that really stands out. But no question about it that the construction and some of the PMA represented a big chunk of what we had. Rey Wicklander – Tradewinds Global Investors: Okay. And then one more if I could, could you just enumerate some of the pricing gains you’ve seen in comp just to whet our appetites a little bit?

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Well, I think you’re looking at about a 5% or 6%, which is what we’ve said before. And also, as we’ve said before, we don’t think that that’s got by itself the makings of an improvement in profit margins, because we are still going to be incurring upward changes, lost cause driven by health care, pharmaceuticals, et cetera, as I said. Those are moving at a faster clip than 6%. So we think it’s pretty much of a breakeven thing. So we’re not going to – we for one are not going to whet your appetite, to use your word, about what lies ahead because of these rate increases. They’re good and we welcome them, but they’re still not sufficiently high as to drive up the underwriting account profitability. Rey Wicklander – Tradewinds Global Investors: Okay. So pricing is still ways away from genuine adequacy, in your opinion?

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Correct. Rey Wicklander – Tradewinds Global Investors: Okay. Okay, thanks so much.

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Yes, sir.

Operator

Operator

And with no further questions in the queue. I’d like to turn the conference back over to management for any additional or closing remark.

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Well, we don’t have any more comments. We appreciate the interest and look forward to our next visit to cover year-end results that will be public. So again, thank you, and you all have a good afternoon.

Operator

Operator

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today’s call. Thank you for your participation and have a great day.