Earnings Labs

Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 26, 2012

$39.78

-0.87%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Old Republic International Fourth Quarter 2011 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time. I would now like to turn the conference over to Scott Eckstein of the Financial Relations Board. Please go ahead. Scott Eckstein – Financial Relations Board: Thank you, operator. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for Old Republic’s conference call to discuss fourth quarter and full year 2011 results. This morning, we distributed a copy of the press release. If there is anyone online who did not receive a copy, you can access it at Old Republic’s website which is www.oldrepublic.com. Please be advised that this call may involve forward-looking statements as discussed in the press release dated January 26, 2012. Risks associated with these statements can be found in the company’s latest SEC filings. Joining us today from management are Al Zucaro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Chris Nard, President. At this time, I’d like to turn the call over to Mr. Al Zucaro for his opening remarks. Please go ahead. Al Zucaro – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Scott and good afternoon to everyone. As always, we assume that you have read the earnings release, so we won’t bother repeating what’s there. We’ll just refer to parts of it as the case arises. As usual, Chris Nard and I will make some remarks about key aspects of our business that we think are or should be of interest to you. And then we’ll turn to call to your questions as was stated before. We’ll comment on the General Insurance first,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) We will first go to Bill Laemmel from Divine Capital Markets Bill Laemmel – Divine Capital Markets: Aldo?

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Hi Bill, how are you? Bill Laemmel – Divine Capital Markets: Hey, you’re doing good work. And I really appreciate it.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

That’s kind of you. Bill Laemmel – Divine Capital Markets: What are we going to see, I take it when you report, though, in the quarters coming up that you’ll report the loss and we’ll just see it in benefits and claims, but actually what will happen – and we’ll see that in the numbers. And then what will actually happen is that part of it will get put in statutory reserves to be amortized at a later date. So, we are just going to see the normal numbers as they flow? Is that correct?

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Yeah, that’s correct. Bill Laemmel – Divine Capital Markets: Okay.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

There are two different accounting treatments. There is the statutory treatment, which both Chris and I have talked about, and that is you pay half of the claims and the other half you put in reserve and that reserve is counted as part of statutory capital. Then when you move those numbers to a GAAP reporting basis, then the unpaid portion appears as part of the incurred losses and therefore affects the GAAP bottom line to company. It is not until there is a permanent resolution of our ownership of the Republic Mortgage Insurance Company, whereby there is a sale of that company or loss of control of one sort or another that you are able to eliminate it from the GAAP financial statements. So, it’s basically two sets of books. Bill Laemmel – Divine Capital Markets: Yeah, but we are only going to see the one where the benefit and claim is just carried as it has been all along?

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Correct, in the GAAP statements for their shareholders, that’s correct. Bill Laemmel – Divine Capital Markets: Okay, thank you.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Yes sir.

Operator

Operator

We’ll now go to Geoff Dancey with Cutler Capital. Geoff Dancey – Cutler Capital: Good afternoon.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Hi. Geoff Dancey – Cutler Capital: Hi. I have a couple questions for you. First, could you explain in a little more detail what happens after one year of this situation with the mortgage insurer?

Chris Nard

Management

Yeah, Geoff, this is Chris. This order, as I mentioned, is fairly recent on the 19th and we have a meeting coming up next week with the department. So, my assumption is the order is good for a year during that process. The department will continue to do analysis, look at the company, and at some point in time throughout that period, would then determine how the business runs off permanently, but we won’t know that for sure until we get a little further into this process. Geoff Dancey – Cutler Capital: So, we should not expect to hear more about how this process will evolve for sometime then, it sounds like?

Chris Nard

Management

Yeah, the way this works is, the order was received on the 19th, and then there is a hearing scheduled at the department. I think it’s referred to as an informal hearing on the matter, towards the end of February on the 22, and that’s when the department gets together with the company and others to talk about the situation in the runoff of the business. I think it’s safe to say, we will have more clarity beyond that year after we work through that hearing at the end of next month. That’s the best way to think about it, Geoff. Geoff Dancey – Cutler Capital: Okay. And will the North Carolina Department of Insurance put out any information?

Chris Nard

Management

I don’t know the answer to that Geoff. I think the order is posted on the RMIC website. So, you can see all of the information that the department has to-date to that effect. Geoff Dancey – Cutler Capital: Okay. And secondly, have you heard anything from any convert holders?

Al Zucaro

Chairman

No, because we have talked to some of them in terms of anticipating what could happen, but obviously, there has been no need to resolve anything since – as matters have turned out, nothing has happened. So, steady as she goes. Geoff Dancey – Cutler Capital: Okay and then a couple of questions just relating to some of these segments within the General Insurance subsidiary. Looking at the rising benefits in claim ratio in the workers comp…

Al Zucaro

Chairman

You are looking at the statistic exhibit. Geoff Dancey – Cutler Capital: Exactly, yeah.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Yeah. Geoff Dancey – Cutler Capital: I'm just looking 2011 over '10 ratio of 70.7% to 72.3%, I'm wondering where you think this stabilizes, and how you are thinking about that going forward?

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Well, if I'm looking at the same thing that's on the website, we have a year-to-date numbers there and we’ve got comparative numbers for prior years. And if you look at that, the comp business has bounced around over the years over the longest time between 70% and 75% loss ratio. And I think that's a good thing to expect as to what is going to next year or this year, I don't know. But it should be within that 70% to 75% range. Now, bear in also and that's why we show the three lines of insurance combined, namely workers comp, general liability, and the commercial automobile together in total. The reason we do that is that fundamentally, for most or for many of our customers, the three lines I have written together and really you should be looking at the composite experience of those three lines ganged together as the best indicator of what could happen. I think individual lines of the three may go – may bounce up and down one way and the other, but when you put them altogether, you do get a better consistency, and that's the reality of the underwriting of the results from the underwriting process we follow pretty much throughout the system. Geoff Dancey – Cutler Capital: Okay, that's helpful. Thanks a lot.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Yes, sir.

Operator

Operator

And we'll now go to Steven Charest from Divine Capital Markets.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Hi, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Steven, your line is open. (Operator Instructions) Steven Charest – Divine Capital Markets: Yeah, I'm using a different phone, anyway good afternoon guys.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Hi, how are you doing? Steven Charest – Divine Capital Markets: Good, quick follow-up on Bill's call earlier.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Yeah. Steven Charest – Divine Capital Markets: What kind of assumptions can we make on the impact to net investment income as a result of this 50-50 split as per the order?

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Well, if you look at the investment income in the mortgage guaranty business Steve, it's been going down, right, because you're still going to have payments going out. Now, it's true that at least from January 19 forward, the payments are going to be half of what they would otherwise be. However, again, as Chris mentioned before, there is a disparity between the timing of premium receipts and the timing of losses paid. And for the foreseeable future, we're seeing that it's fair to say that the losses are going to continue to exceed, even at the 50% level are going to continue to exceed the premiums received, and therefore, you're going to have negative cash flow, which is going to come out of the invested asset base and since we are not writing any new business. It stands to a reason that that invested asset base is going to come down. Furthermore, we have done a lot of liquidation of the portfolio to make sure that we have plenty of liquidity in the Mortgage Guaranty Company so that if our expectations as to the timing of losses turned out to be wrong, the cash would be there to make the payments. So, the combination of all those things should lead to a downtrend, a continued and perhaps even accentuated downtrend in investment income in the Mortgage Guaranty business. Now, having said all of that, when you come to right down to it, that business the bottom line of that business has never been driven by investment income. It’s all underwriting. Cash flow and mortgage guaranty is not a significant. I mean the investment account I should say is not a significant as it is in the General Insurance business, where you are dealing with long-tail lines of insurance. So, that’s the best answer we can give you. That it’s a downward trend that you are going to see in investment income there. Steven Charest – Divine Capital Markets: So to summarize this option doesn’t accelerate it nor does it slow it and it doesn’t slow it either.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

It may slow it down a little bit because obviously you're getting 50% less outflow from claims, right. So it’s going to slowdown, but again the disparity between the premium account and even 50% of the paid claims is such that you are going to eat into the invested asset base. Steven Charest – Divine Capital Markets: Great thank you. That’s was very helpful.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Okay.

Operator

Operator

And now we will go to Jim Ryan from Morningstar. Jim Ryan – Morningstar: Good afternoon. Al could you discuss the dividend capacity of the insurance subsidiaries of the holding company specifically based upon 2011 results, how much you can dividend up. Yeah your current cash position at the holding company again just kind of a generalized discussion on that please?

Aldo Zucaro

Management

Right. Well, as you know with the dividends to our shareholders amount to about $170 million annually and most of the money historically at Old Republic in normal times has come from our General Insurance business, and that business as I said earlier, has got ample capacity. Meaning we have got more than enough capital to carry the volume that we are writing nowadays. The volume that we expect over the next couple of years certainly enough capital in terms of its leverage ratio vis-à-vis the loss reserve exposure that’s on the right side of the balance sheet. So, long and short of it is that we have got enough capital at the General Insurance business to continue the kind of dividend payout that you see, when you look at our 10-K. There is a footnote in the 2010 10-K and you will see one in the 2011 10-K and that footnote is going to indicate that we have got X dollars of dividend that can be upstreamed to the holding company without regulatory approval, which means it’s free and clear, unless some totally extraordinary events should occur down the road. We have the ability to move that money. And it is much more than the amount needed for the dividends to our shareholders. Now on top of that the holding company is got a need to pay the interest on it’s primarily on its two convertible debentures. One of them the $316 million that comes due in May of this year has got about 9% all-in cost in it and so that’s a quick calculation that’s $27 million. We have got the money in place to pay that off come May and you have got to remember that the money we have in place is invested short-term and now a days as you know, we are getting half a point or three quarters of a point at best on short-term money. So, that means that entire $27 million will fall to the bottom line. And that will leave therefore then the $550 million at around 4% all-in, which is what $22 million range. So, the cash needs of the holding company starting in May if anything are going to be less than they were throughout 2011. But all of that to say again, that the amount of dividend that we can pay and they are primarily out of the General Insurance group are far in excess of what we need for those needs that I've just cited. Now, finally the Title Insurance business is beginning to percolate from a bottom-line standpoint and that business is in a position to also pay interest to the holding company on various intra-system debt that we have and that's also another source of cash to the holding company. Jim Ryan – Morningstar: Okay. Would you expect though – if I recall was $306 million was your dividend capability based on 2010, do you know if that would be higher or lower for 2011?

Al Zucaro

Chairman

I'm going to guess if you don't hold me to this that it should be in the $260 million, $270 million at the end of 2011. Jim Ryan – Morningstar: Yeah, that’s what I wanted to know.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

I beg your pardon. Jim Ryan – Morningstar: That’s exactly what I wanted to know.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Yeah, okay. Jim Ryan – Morningstar: Thank you.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Yes, sir.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions. I’ll turn the conference back over to management for any additional or closing remarks. Al Zucaro – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer: Okay. As always, we appreciate your interest in listening to our commentary and your continued interest in Old Republic's business and the securities that you hold or manage on behalf of your customers. And we look forward to speaking with you again at the end of first quarter of 2012. So, we’ll bid you a good afternoon or if you are in Hawaii good morning and (indiscernible), have a good day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s presentation. Thank you for your participation.