Earnings Labs

Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)

Q4 2010 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 27, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Please stand by. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Old Republic International fourth quarter 2010 earnings call. Today’s call is being recorded. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up for questions. I would like to remind everyone that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Leslie Loyet with the Financial Relations Board. Please go ahead.

Leslie Loyet

Management

Thank you. Good afternoon and thank you all for joining us today for the Old Republic conference call to discuss fourth quarter and year-end 2010 results. This morning we distributed a copy of the press release and hopefully you’ve all had a chance to review the results. If there is anyone online who did not receive a copy, you may access it at Old Republic’s Web site at www.oldrepublic.com. Please be advised this call may involve forward-looking statements as discussed in the press release dated January 27, 2011. Risk associated with these statements can be found in the company's latest SEC filings. Joining us today from management are, Al Zucaro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Nard, President. At this time I’d like to turn the call over to Al Zucaro for his opening remarks. Please go ahead.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Thank you, Leslie and good afternoon and thanks to everyone for joining us in this usual quarterly review of our business. We’ll assume as we always do that you had a chance to read this morning’s release and that hopefully will make sense to you. As we’ve done in the past, Chris and I will make some comments to perhaps shed some greater light on the release, and then we’ll leave more time for the question-and-answer – questions session. The picking up from our last quarterly reports, there is very little that’s new in our business except for the final quarter of 2010 which as you saw incorporates the financial accounts of the newest addition to the Old Republic family of companies. And as the release indicates, the PMA merger took effect as of October 1 of last year and therefore as required and appropriate we have included its activities as part of Old Republic from that point forward. As we have noted in various sections of the release you can readily see that the merger with PMA added about 2.3 business zones or maybe 16% to our pre-merger asset base. And it was also additive to the common equity account pre-merger again to the tune of about $230 million or that’s about a 6% increase over what we had at the end of September. The release of course also speaks to PMA’s premium and bottom-line effects in the final quarter of 2010 and based on what we know at this moment. The addition of this business to our General Insurance revenue base will be about 20% in 2011, that’s the combination of premiums and net investment income and any kinds of fee income coming from PMA. So it’s a substantial merger for us. It is the – in historical…

Chris Nard

President

Good afternoon. As you can see from the release, PMA results in this year’s fourth quarter improved somewhat from the same period last year and the year-to-date comparisons also show improvement as well. In both of those instances when you leave aside the effects of the captive commutations and the pool terminations, the year-over-year changes continue to be driven by varying claim payment trends and by changes in the reserve provisions. On the delinquency side, total delinquencies declined 32.5% in 2010 when compared to year-end 2009 and in the same year-to-year comparison the traditional primary delinquencies declined almost 19%. The decline in the delinquent inventory throughout the year is reflective of several things. One a decline in a number of newly reported delinquents an increase in the number of delinquencies that cured during the year as well as the reductions arising from the terminations of certain pool insurance contracts and also from an increase in the level of paid claims. With respect to the production side of the business, new insurance was up, new insurance written was up just slightly in the fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter comparison, but down in the year-to-date comparisons. On a positive note the new insurance written trended up slightly in each quarter since the first quarter of this year and was up about 7.5% in comparison to the third quarter of 2010. We see net earned premium continue to trend lower throughout the year and that is as a result of several things as well, one the low level of new insurance written that we’re seeing today continued runoff of the bulk business which has been accelerated by the termination of these pool insurance, several of the pool insurance contracts, and a high level of refunded premiums related to the elevated level of claim recessions, but…

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Okay. So let’s see. To conclude this parts of our discussion and move on to the Q&A portion which I suspect most of you are much more interested in. Let me just say that the Old Republic balance sheet remains in very good shape. We are just about to complete a revamping of the PMA investment portfolio to align it with our own preexisting system-wide preferences and to – in the post-merger period to eliminate any asset and liability correlations that existed. As you can see also in the – I think in the balance sheets that we submitted, our equities represented just about 6.5% of our investment portfolio at the year-end 2010. That’s up from 5% or so at the end of 2009 and substantially, if not all of the increase is due to a market appreciation during 2010. Now, again our big chunk of that equity portfolio to at both year ends ’09 and ’10 consisted of two significant investments we have had beginning in 2007 in what I believe are the two largest publicly held mortgage insurers in the country. As we have reported consistently since then, since we bought those two issues in 2007 as I say and some of it in 2008, part of our thinking was that the mortgage guaranty industry would write itself by 2010. Now as matters have turned out of course, we were, that long in that assessments and those investments of course have depreciated significantly as you can readily see in the table. At this juncture of therefore what is worth we think that the results for the Mortgage guaranty business including our own – are not likely to be written in black ink before 2013. In this current downturn, is the – is obviously the most damaging since the…

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Our first question today will come from Geoffrey Dunn, Dowling & Partners. Geoffrey Dunn – Dowling & Partners: Good morning or good afternoon guys. How are you?

Chris Nard

President

Hi Geoff

Chris Nard

President

Good afternoon Geoff. Geoffrey Dunn – Dowling & Partners: :

Chris Nard

President

Let me give you a feel in general for the state and the way the waivers work is, it’s generally what I’m familiar is you don’t have a – I don’t know it’s trip wire you have check points along the way versus any metric that is a set in stone metric. I think one of the things that got us to the industry to where they were is a hard set in stone metric of a risk to capital ratio and I think we were sufficiently successful in showing people that in this business as it recovers that’s hard set trip wire metrics whether they maybe risk to capital ratio or any other metric that an insurance department would watch, really it is not the way to manage which you got to look at all the metrics that trends and how they work together and I think I can reasonably confidently say that’s how most of these states are doing in. On the reserving provisions, as I said early on in the prepared comments, we would think that the recession effects begin to moderate through 2011 as we’ve all talked about the high risk books really came out at the end of ’05, ’06, ’07 and unfortunately to some extent the early part of 2008, to the extent that you see misrepresentation surface and generally in the first 18 months or so, once you get 18 months past the end of the high risk books you are going to begin to see the recessions drop off and as we do that we would manage the reserving metrics accordingly with our expectations. Geoffrey Dunn – Dowling & Partners: Specifically did you change that metric this quarter adversely affecting your provision?

Chris Nard

President

Yes we would look at it each quarter and when we anticipate that the claim settlement percentage, the recession percentage of claim settlement would decline, we are going to ratchet down that amount. But I can’t tell you, so that’s the general trend. I can’t tell you off the top of the head if we made that adjustment this quarter or not.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Would not just think it’s been kind of…

Chris Nard

President

The trend Jeff is obviously been to move that thing down. I just don’t remember the quarter-to-quarter change. Geoffrey Dunn – Dowling & Partners: :

Chris Nard

President

Absolutely the trend has been to moderate it down.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

: : Geoffrey Dunn – Dowling & Partners: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And next we’ll hear from Beth Malone Wunderlich Securities. Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: Okay, thank you. Good afternoon. I have a couple questions. Just following up on the recession. Just I think I try to understand when you were saying Chris that, should we assume that recessions that there was a bulk of recessions that occurred and now they are going to slow down just because of the nature of those types of policies that are vulnerable to recession are early in this process?

Chris Nard

President

Yes the only thing Beth I just I wouldn’t call it a bulk of recessions it’s been running at an elevated level for the last several years. But if you want to think back to the timeframes I gave you at the end of 2008 or the middle of 2008 was really the end of the bulks that had high percentages of misrepresentation. If those work their way through the system you’ll see this thing began to trend down. Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: Okay, okay. So, was that what influence the level of results for, was that a significant impact to the level of results for the Mortgage Insurance in the first half of 2010, because in the second half obviously we saw a significant increase in the loss ratio for the book of business compared to the first half.

Chris Nard

President

Well I think if you are looking at the loss ratio Beth, you got to think about the impact of the decline in the premium, the net earned premium. So I’d look at it by splitting out the premium in the loss picture. Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: All right. So, those two combined.

Chris Nard

President

Yeah. Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: And then when you talk about the FHA changing some of their metrics, what’s the timeframe of when you can see the benefit of that to your own business. Does it take a 12 month period or do you see some of it now?

Chris Nard

President

The thing I added to my comments today was that, to really see there is two moving parts to the MI execution, there is the cost of the insurance execution against the FHA, but you also have to add in the cost of the conventional financing which is, I can think of it is the MI premium plus the loan level price adjustments from the agencies. So you can get an increase in premiums from the FHA, but which would on its phase make the MI execution more competitive. But if you get a corresponding increase in the loan level price adjustments from the agencies, you’ll negate the competitiveness that you gained with the increase in the FHA rates. So what we’ve seen to-date really is a move with the GSEs where the loan level price adjustments recently ratcheted up somewhat on the announcement of the FHA price increase which leaves us in some buckets in the same spot that we were in the beginning of the year. : Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: Okay so, it neutralizes it. Okay when you talk about the improvement, some of the fundamental improvements you’ve seen in the markets like the fact that you are starting to see fewer delinquencies, new delinquencies reported and that the cure rates have shown some modest improvement, those two factors should lead to, my understanding is it should lead to a better mortgage insurance environment than we had in the past. But okay, so if that’s the case and – is that the thing that we are looking for in 2011 to fee and a fundamental improvement in the loss ratios in your Mortgage Insurance business?

Chris Nard

President

Yes as I said in the past, we’ve seen a good trend in the decline in the newly reported delinquents for an extended period now. And we saw in 2010 the beginnings of an improvement in the cure ratio, but we need to still see a continued elevation in the cure ratios before you really begin to see material improvement. So, again to end of the year 2010 and at the year 2009 cure rates were up, but we still need to see those increases before you see markedly improved results in the MI space.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Let me just add this Beth. I think one of the issues here is that whenever you see improvements we do expect long-term improvements going forward in the Mortgage Guaranty business. You have to consider the fact that it is a long-term product and that therefore the improvement you get in premium rates and quality of underwriting we flex itself over a much longer period than is the case let’s say we are talking in casualty business where you can’t dramatically change in the property casualty business on a one year policy and get gratification from that the following year or the following 12 months as the new product rolls through the system. In Mortgage Guaranty, typically, in any situation, any year, right, the amount of premiums that a mortgage guarantor books that relates to new production, okay is very small. And that’s what delays the recognition of the betterment that you’ve had in underwriting standards or pricing or what have you. Okay. It’s important to keep that in mind. That’s what we keep saying, it’s going to take a long time for this business to fix itself because even if you start today and even its housing where all of a sudden to come out of the shoot real quick, so that we would have great big new production, it would take a long time to get the benefits of that. Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) And our next question will come from Bill Clark, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Bill Clark – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Afternoon guys.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Hi Bill Clark – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Was there anything specific that caused the increase in the average paid claim in the quarter and how much of a factored was that in increase in the overall level of paid claims for this quarter?

Chris Nard

President

That average paid claim number, I don’t have that – the supplement in front of me. But if you look at it, I think that number has been fairly jumping over the last several quarters it’s gone up and down. We think that the general trend once you get out of that jumpiness is down because the higher risk loans in the portfolios the reduced stock, the heavy West Coast production, that went the claim earlier in this cycle. So we think that trend and bias is towards that average claim amount to very gradually trend down. But again you can get some odd movements on a quarter-to-quarter basis. But again that’s really what we are seeing there. Bill Clark – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Okay, and second there has been a lot of discussion in the marketplace slightly about how private MIs fits into the QRM definition. Had any thoughts on where you see those conversations going?

Chris Nard

President

Yes, I mean I think I had because I don’t know what will come out. We certainly have been very engaged as an industry in flubbing on the benefits of mortgage insurance and obviously the original Bill directed the regulation to recognize mortgage insurance. All I would tell you that I think of this cycle has proved nothing. It’s proved that the mortgage insurance business is well regulated and that really isn’t a better way to credit anti-LPV mortgages. So hopefully that will be recognized when we see the QRM come out here in the next month or so. Bill Clark – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Okay, and then a last quick one. Any trends in most recent months in the title insurance business, due to any fluctuations in the interest rates? Is there anything you’ve seen there or else can you chalk any changes mostly to seasonality or things like that?

Chris Nard

President

Well I think certainly the increase in rates that we saw in the fourth quarter slowed down obviously the refinance activity. We’d see that first in the direct operations; it takes a little longer to see it in the agent operations. But we have been able to somewhat moderate that by the increase in market share that we’ve seen in the last year or so. But certainly the rate bump would have slowed down the refinance activity. Bill Clark – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: All right. Great, those all I had. Thank you.

Chris Nard

President

Thanks Bill.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) And at this we’ll take a follow up from Beth Malone, Wunderlich Securities. Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: Okay, thank you. I just had a couple of more follow ups on technical stuff. Can you provide us what your total interest expense for the fourth quarter?

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Yes, you see the debt level right and multiply that by an average of maybe 7% and that gives you the right number. Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: Okay, great. And can you give some idea what the tax rate should be going forward?

Al Zucaro

Chairman

As I said before Beth, we have reconfigured our bond portfolio to significant degree by moving both reinvested assets as well as new money into taxable bonds. So that’s going to change the rate to some degree on the one hand. On the other hand, we don’t have a handle yet on obviously what’s going to happen from another earnings standpoint in all of these businesses and as you know, the underwriting account gets taxed to 35%. So, in combination I guess what I’m saying is that, we don’t have a good feel for that. Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: Okay, and then, on the dividend as you said in the past, I believe the dividend is an important and solid can you comment, should we anticipate that the dividend will remain intact?

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Well, we have said, as you know consistently that the dividend gets looked at every quarter and it gets looked at in the context of one what we expect our capital needs and as you know in recent years our capital needs in General Insurance area have not been extensive, right because the reserve account in particular has stabilized and regardless of what happened if you have a stable reserve account and still have some growth in your capital account, it gives you additional leeway. Secondly, the general insurance business again as we’ve recorded has been the main source of dividends upstreamed to the holding company and that as far as we can see, remains in good shape. And finally, we do look as the long-term as to where the business is going again what’s the capital needs are going to be to determine the rate at which we pay a dividend to the shareholders. But it is important to remember that while we’ve made annual budget plans and so forth that dividend gets looked at both by obviously management on one hand and as importantly the directors every quarter. So I can say to you is that you have with Old Republic this long history, so far so good, we’ve been able to maintain it. We hope to keep maintaining it. But no guarantees. Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: Okay, and then finally, there has been a pretty visible discussion on the Bank of America lawsuit, where they’ve names Old Republic is, is that the only lawsuit – material lawsuit out there involving Old Republic and one of the major banks are mortgage creators?

Chris Nard

President

Well I would say that’s two material and that would be Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase. There may be others but upside I don’t think they would be.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

As is the case with us and I believe most other financial guarantors whether they’d be MBIA type guarantors or mortgage guarantors. A lot of it stems from the old countrywide operations at Bank of America bought some time ago. Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: :

Al Zucaro

Chairman

No Beth Malone – Wunderlich Securities: Okay, all right. Thank you.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

You are welcome.

Operator

Operator

And currently we have no questions in the queue. I want to now turn the conference back over to Al Zucaro for any closing or additional remarks.

Al Zucaro

Chairman

Okay, well. That’s it from us. We appreciate your interest as always as we say. We mean that sincerely and look forward to our next quarterly visit in couple or three months.

Chris Nard

President

Having said that, we wish you a good afternoon. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

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