Aldo C. Zucaro - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Management
Surprised? Well, not really. Again, we have been looking at this business over the entire 30 months period that we expect it will take to more or less fix it. Our reasoning has been that mortgage lending and housing took, what, five, six years to get in it's current straits. And, on a judgmental basis, we think it's going to take half as long to fix it. And our expectation, as I have indicated before, and as we have indicated on several other past occasions, is that when it's all said and done, we will have posted something akin to a 150% loss ratio. We are currently at first 12 months in to that 30-month period, as I said before, about 176, 179, I forget exactly. It's going to get a little worse for the second half of this year, and then starting next year, it will very slowly, we think, as all of these fixes that are being talked about the help that's being given to Freddie and Fannie, the greater charter authorizations being given to FHA. And the other band aids that are being put on the system, all of those will, we believe conspire to alleviate the pressure, and lead to a lessened loss ratio, and then, of course you have got the new production in both starting… sometimes in first quarter of this year, second quarter of this year, going into next year, which we expect will represent a profitable book of business, which will offset the loss costs of the past. Those are our thoughts, and they have been there now for the past nine months, 12 months or so. And we see no basis for changing those expectations. So from that standpoint, we're not surprised by the level of losses we're incurring. The only surprise comes in from the standpoint of when they'll occur, whether it occurs in the second quarter or the third quarter. The other element of surprise has to some degree to do with the recoveries from captive reinsurance. Those are really done on account-by-account basis, and each account tends to have a somewhat different mix of business, and therefore the loss recoveries for each of those mixes will tend to be different, but there's no question that those recoveries are on the rise, and they will continue to rise, we believe, and therefore, also contribute to a attenuation, if you will, of the loss costs.